dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on Feb 13, 2012 14:46:48 GMT -5
I think Alanis might be fairly close. The thing is, this era has been bigger than nearly any example that has been brought up, so it's hard to really find a comparison. The other important thing to note is she didn't go into this record with the mind to become a huge success--this is the exact same record she would have made, it seems, had 19 been a bigger success or received far less attention. And I think she's going to do her best--though it may be impossible--to approach her third record from the same viewpoint. She's already said she could never match this album's success and has no interest in trying to. She could come out with a record similar to this, in that it isn't radio bait but has material so striking and polished enough that it does well, or she could really scale back and do something more stripped sounding that will sell well initially, but not garner the same kind of radio success and longevity.
She basically has the support of the entire world, but with that comes the expectations of the entire world. I don't even think we'll hear anything new from her (from a third album at least) until well into 2013 anyway. I trust that she's not interested in rushing it to cash in on her popularity. She would be wise to do a movie soundtrack song (I believe that is already taking place), and I'm sure she has her pick to duet with or be featured with anyone in the industry, so that might be a good place, too, to keep her name out there.
I just don't think we have a current template for this. I believe this will be her high point, and I can easily see an adjusted Alanis model working, but I can also see how this could be the start of a Whitney/Celine-like career.
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HEADOFTHEPACK
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Post by HEADOFTHEPACK on Feb 13, 2012 15:38:25 GMT -5
I guarantee you she will never see success like this again (as you say), but then how could she? I mean, the only way is down really, which is a rare situation to be in. Commercially, I'd say the Alanis model is probably more likely. She's clearly has no interest in being a 'diva', which is great for her and i'm sure she'll produce some brilliant material (whenever she chooses to record again), but I don't see it translating into the success that 21 has seen.
None of that's a criticism - I can't believe how much her album is still selling week on week - I just think it's realistic. For whatever reason (timing, mood, pop culture), this album has a struck a chord with essentially everybody. That's impossible to replicate.
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hidizzyguy
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Post by hidizzyguy on Feb 13, 2012 16:10:07 GMT -5
She will be successful for the rest of the career, but not a big as she was this year.
Why? Because she's so damn likeable. You want her to succeed.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Feb 13, 2012 16:11:37 GMT -5
The problem I have with people writing her off as another Alanis or Norah Jones fluke (though Norah has actually been a fairly consistent seller) is that her album has crushed the competition. I mean, no album in the past 5 years has come even close to the selling power of 21. I find it hard to believe all of that hype and power will simply just go away next era. Obviously it won't be another 21, that's impossible. But I take issue with the argument that she'll eventually fade from the public eye simply because her music isn't like "most pop music" when her music has been outperforming "most pop music", by a huge margin.
I don't think she'll always be a huge pop force, necessarily, but I don't see her fading away anytime soon either.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2012 16:20:40 GMT -5
"she's not planning on writing another "21" any time soon. "I am never writing a breakup record again, by the way," she said. "I'm done with being a bitter witch.""
It'll all depend on how well the public likes non-heartbreaking songs from her.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2012 17:47:13 GMT -5
The problem I have with people writing her off as another Alanis or Norah Jones fluke (though Norah has actually been a fairly consistent seller) is that her album has crushed the competition. I mean, no album in the past 5 years has come even close to the selling power of 21. I find it hard to believe all of that hype and power will simply just go away next era. Obviously it won't be another 21, that's impossible. But I take issue with the argument that she'll eventually fade from the public eye simply because her music isn't like "most pop music" when her music has been outperforming "most pop music", by a huge margin. I don't think she'll always be a huge pop force, necessarily, but I don't see her fading away anytime soon either. I don't think people are saying she will fade away with the next album. It's a question of whether she is going to sustain a lengthy career as a pop hitmaker. Jagged Little Pill was a massive album that went 16x Platinum and spawned 5 major hits. She followed it up with (besides a #1 CHR/Pop soundtrack single) an album that spawned another #1 CHR/Pop hit but the song didn't last very long on the charts and the album only went 3x Platinum. The album after that spawned no major CHR/Pop hits but she got a Hot AC hit and her album went Platinum. Alanis didn't exactly fall off the face of the planet after Jagged Little Pill either but she didn't continue as a major hitmaker.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Feb 13, 2012 17:58:44 GMT -5
I'd say Alanis more or less faded from public consciousness after her follow-up to Jagged Little Pill and I just don't see Adele doing that, at all. The Norah Jones comparison might be more appropriate, although that's tricky too because Adele is arguably bigger than Norah Jones ever was.
It's really too early to know for sure but I'd say she won't be the next Mariah Carey but she won't be the next Alanis Morisette either. I think she'll continue to be a huge, well-respected name in the music industry even if she's not tearing up the pop charts.
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Post by when the pawn... on Feb 13, 2012 20:17:13 GMT -5
I think the standing O(s) last night speak louder than the award/record sales/etc. The universal admiration/respect from the entire world is so loud. I was way younger but I don't remember it being like this for Amy Winehouse, Norah Jones, Alanis Morissette, etc. People love her and I'd be shocked if her next album isn't a success. OF COURSE, it won't be at the level of 21.
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doak
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Post by doak on Feb 13, 2012 23:33:24 GMT -5
This sums up my feelings... A lot of steam in this thread. Her album has surpassed 10 million albums worldwide in a time where you'll be lucky to even match that amount. Not only that, 3 #1 singles. Think about this for a second, her album has sold 17 million albums in 2011-12. Think about that. It's not even close to being done and that doesn't even include singles sold. The Alanis comparison doesn't fit. Adele makes straight pop music, with crossover appeal to many audiences. In case some of you don't know pop is short for popular music. Norah made music based around jazz, Alanis was closer to rock, Joss Stone was NEVER even close to being this successful, and Lauryn Hill is a horrible comparison. She ended her own career. She has a personality and knows when it's time to take a break. She may not sale 20 million plus again but she ain't goin' anywhere. And yes she doesn't fit the "current state of pop". THANK GOD!!!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2012 0:50:33 GMT -5
Is this thread serious, Adele isn't going anywhere. I can't at her being compared to Alanis Morisette, their music is on two different wavelengths and they attract a completely different demographic. There will always be a demographic for Adele, who already had a following with "19" (which was closing in on Platinum before "21" was even released) and "Chasing Pavements" which went to #21 on the Hot 100. Alanis had no career in the US prior to her breakthrough. She may or may not be conquering the billboard hot 100 next era, but she will most definitely outsell your faves effortlessly. Don't even get me started on the comparisons to Norah Jones and Susan Boyle, get back to me when any of them top the Hot 100 or chr/pop. Oops, they don't have the broad appeal, nor the music or voice. Oh, and Adele isn't here to fit into whats current, she doesn't need toβ her music speaks for itself. That's why her latest single topped the hot 100 and chr/pop without any performances or music videos. She doesn't need gimmicks. She's here to change the game, that's why Britney, Gaga and Beyonce are flopping all over the place, the Queen has arrived. Sorry she isn't releasing music you can p*ssy pop too, she'll leave that to the lessers like Ke$ha, whose first week sales were outsold by nearly all of the weeks that "21" sat pretty at #1. I think the world was craving for a long time for someone special and authentic to come along that will be remembered down the line for all the right reasons. They aren't about to forget about her, I promise you.
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Post by Β€ Matthea Β€ on Feb 14, 2012 7:12:45 GMT -5
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 14, 2012 9:44:11 GMT -5
No need to get defensive... some of us are trying to be realistic when coming up with our own predictions and can do it without taking swipes at other singers.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Feb 14, 2012 10:06:16 GMT -5
5 years? She's done
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Feb 14, 2012 10:12:12 GMT -5
I don't know if I can handle that... When she finally comes back, there's gonna be more pressure on that record than anything could ever live up to.
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Feb 14, 2012 11:27:39 GMT -5
I can't see her seriously coming out with a record in 2016-17 unless she becomes another Lauryn Hill who is STILL on hiatus.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 14, 2012 11:34:08 GMT -5
Lots of stars over exaggerate when they speak about how long their hiatus will be. I wouldn't be surprised if Adele does take a long break though, but unsure about five years.
The days of long-term breaks adding to hype seem to be over now though. People have short-term memories. In the 90's, three year breaks were the norm for big Pop stars. Now I think that's shrunk to about a year. Someone like Justin Timberlake arguably had one of the most anticipated returns after FS/LS, but now he's taken so long that I feel people have moved on and lost interest. He'd still have hype, but I don't think as much as he would have if he released an album in 2009 or so. If Adele waits five years, I do see a lot of interest disappearing by then.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Feb 14, 2012 12:01:29 GMT -5
Her record label won't allow her to take 5 years off, no way.
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hidizzyguy
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Post by hidizzyguy on Feb 14, 2012 12:29:13 GMT -5
I know she makes great break-up music, but I bet she would make great love songs, too.
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Post by π
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Ύ on Feb 14, 2012 17:29:36 GMT -5
The problem I have with people writing her off as another Alanis or Norah Jones fluke (though Norah has actually been a fairly consistent seller) is that her album has crushed the competition. I mean, no album in the past 5 years has come even close to the selling power of 21. I find it hard to believe all of that hype and power will simply just go away next era. Obviously it won't be another 21, that's impossible. But I take issue with the argument that she'll eventually fade from the public eye simply because her music isn't like "most pop music" when her music has been outperforming "most pop music", by a huge margin. I don't think she'll always be a huge pop force, necessarily, but I don't see her fading away anytime soon either. I don't think people are saying she will fade away with the next album. It's a question of whether she is going to sustain a lengthy career as a pop hitmaker. Jagged Little Pill was a massive album that went 16x Platinum and spawned 5 major hits. She followed it up with (besides a #1 CHR/Pop soundtrack single) an album that spawned another #1 CHR/Pop hit but the song didn't last very long on the charts and the album only went 3x Platinum. The album after that spawned no major CHR/Pop hits but she got a Hot AC hit and her album went Platinum. Alanis didn't exactly fall off the face of the planet after Jagged Little Pill either but she didn't continue as a major hitmaker. Much of the material on Alanis' last few albums has been less commercial and I don't think she really cares and obsesses about having another record that is quite as massive as JLP. She was on Warner Bros. and they grossly mismanaged her so that may have played a role in that to a certain degree. 5 years? She's done Some fruit for thought: Sade takes nearly 10 years between albums and they have done pretty well each time. Although they firmly established themselves in the 80s and took shorter breaks initially.
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Rurry
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Post by Rurry on Feb 14, 2012 17:45:30 GMT -5
I really doubt she will take 5 years off from music. lol.
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doak
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Post by doak on Feb 14, 2012 18:41:36 GMT -5
5 years? She's done She doesn't need gimmicks to sale albums so even if that were to happen (which I doubt she takes a 5 year break), the anticipation for the return will be astronomical. Just look at the anticipation for a Grammy performance because she was *away* for a few months. Now turn months into years. I will say, some artist need to take notes. So scared to take a break because they know what will happen if they're gone to long. And those mentioning Lauryn Hill, as much as I love her and still enjoy her only album...she's never coming back. She's not on break...she's not coming back...ever. Her life and passion for music just aren't there.
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Eqbk
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Post by Eqbk on Feb 14, 2012 19:53:15 GMT -5
Only time will tell but the difference between her and Alanis is that Adele has been able to transcend trends. Alanis was very much of her time and when the tide changed in the music, Alanis went right with it. Adele's music doesn't really fit w/ the current trends, yet she is able to have success despite this, like Nora. But of course, she never had the mainstream pop success that Adele had. I think that could potentially be the key that allows her to not follow their fate. Adele has shown that she can transcend trends, unlike Alanis, and achieve mainstream pop success, unlike Nora. What they lacked, she has.
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Feb 14, 2012 21:10:48 GMT -5
She won't be gone for five years. I've heard that before and it never happens. Either she'll have a new album out in less than three years or she won't for ten years. It'll get to a point where she'll want to record again because she'll be bored...unless she doesn't want to experience fame again and she has enough money to set her for life. Whichever happens.
As for her future, I think the Norah Jones comparisons are most appropriate. Obviously Norah has never had the pop hits and the continued one-album success that Adele is having right now but her album was selling boatloads for a while after it came out, like Adele, she won the awards, she got the attention, and her followup album did nearly the same thing. Since then, she's made connections, maintained a certain level of success but she doesn't stray too far away from music whether it's through collaborations or by making appearances in very odd places. As far as Norah is concerned, she's still successful and doing quite well for herself. I think Adele will continue to be successful in ways that will be suitable to her output.
I don't think that means she will continue getting pop hits though. Unless her aim is to do that, of course. But that would mean changing her sound. I think Adele's next album will be a decent seller, she'll get the AC hits, the awards and the attention. Everything she has now without the major pop airplay.
With all of that, I don't think the Alanis comparisons will work best either. Alanis' aim after Jagged Little Pill remained on trying to keep a pop radio audience. With each album, Alanis dwindled more and more with her sales and success. I don't think Adele will aim to target pop radio which is why I think she'll be successful. But she won't be as successful as she is now because, well, let's be realistic, NOBODY maintains this level of success. Look at MJ and Thriller. That was massive. Bad was big but it wasn't massive. Nobody has two major eras like that. It won't happen.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Feb 15, 2012 7:29:01 GMT -5
5 years? She's done Some fruit for thought: Sade takes nearly 10 years between albums and they have done pretty well each time. Although they firmly established themselves in the 80s and took shorter breaks initially. Sade never became the huge worldwide postars Adele is now. And as you said they built a loyal fanbase for years until they decided to take longer breaks inbetween releases. Adele is now a popstar, whether she likes to define herself one or not. The Pop audience that is supporting her now, won't be waiting 5 years to hear her new music, that is not how it works. Pop audiences are fickle. Nor will her label allow her to take that kind of break just to live her personal life in my opinion. She'll be able to get AC hits easily in 5 years and she'll have some hype from Pop for the nostalgia, but that is it. Nowhere near where she is now. That is how I see it.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 19, 2012 18:55:34 GMT -5
She will do well with her next album- probably not see the level of success that 21 had, but she'll be fine.
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silab
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Post by silab on Feb 20, 2012 18:36:57 GMT -5
Didnt Adelle say she wanted to take a five year break?
I think she will have a moderate success after this, depends on when she will release the next album
I just dont see the fuzz about her voice though. Yes she can sing but I dont hear her being in the same league as the 90's Mariah, Whitney and Celine
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Jua
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Post by Jua on Feb 21, 2012 1:17:50 GMT -5
She isn't going to take five years off...
Adele has the talent to do what she wants with her career. If she wants to change things up in the future -- in order to appease the crowd, she can. If she wants to go in the same direction, stick to her roots, she will find success there too.
I actually hope for the best for Adele.
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beebee
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Post by beebee on Feb 21, 2012 18:22:51 GMT -5
Adele denied she's taking a 5-year break, and stated that she would hit the studio again pretty soon, so 'the 5 year break would be more like a 5-day break' lol
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Scotty
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Post by Scotty on Feb 21, 2012 19:06:26 GMT -5
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on Feb 21, 2012 20:34:35 GMT -5
Some fruit for thought: Sade takes nearly 10 years between albums and they have done pretty well each time. Although they firmly established themselves in the 80s and took shorter breaks initially. Sade never became the huge worldwide postars Adele is now. And as you said they built a loyal fanbase for years until they decided to take longer breaks inbetween releases. Adele is now a popstar, whether she likes to define herself one or not. The Pop audience that is supporting her now, won't be waiting 5 years to hear her new music, that is not how it works. Pop audiences are fickle. Nor will her label allow her to take that kind of break just to live her personal life in my opinion. She'll be able to get AC hits easily in 5 years and she'll have some hype from Pop for the nostalgia, but that is it. Nowhere near where she is now. That is how I see it. She might be a popstar of sorts, but she's transcended the genre. In fact, the pop audience could be argued to have been the slowest to take notice of her. To assume that her audience has suddenly shrunk to only the of-the-moment pop audience is really short selling her success and fanbase.
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