Billboard Hot 100: 03/17/12

[Honeymoon]

Adele (RHI) should be bolded

[HolidayGuy]

^Thank you. One sometimes slips by, no matter how close I look. :)

A note: When people talk about greatest gainer in these updates, there could be tracks not listed that gained 1m+, and maybe even gained more than the ones listed. It may not happen often, but we've seen tracks that Diego posted as extras, that also gained 1m+.

[chartfreak]

Shouldn't Chris Brown be bolded then?

Where did this come from: CARLY RAE JEPSEN

[HolidayGuy]

That should be the last of the bold alterations. :)

How high will Katy Perry's track go? It's not currently looking like a 100m contender, like her other singles. The video has yet to hit, so that could provide a spark.

[matelot]

no Airplay for John Mayer's Shadow Days ?

[HolidayGuy]

chartfreak- the Carly Rae single has been pretty big in Canada (from where she hails). She was a contestant on Canadian Idol several years back.

[Deleted]

Kelly's got that 4th at No. 1 in the bag, me thinks. :)

[moore746]

Mar 6, 2012 9:38:15 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Shouldn't Chris Brown be bolded then?

Where did this come from: CARLY RAE JEPSEN

Song took off in the US after Justin Bieber, Selena Gomez, and Ashley Tisdale made an unofficial video for it. It's currently in the top 10 on iTunes. Mindless lyrics but insanely catchy.

[moore746]

Mar 6, 2012 10:50:46 GMT -5 @dsulkers said:

Kelly's got that 4th at No. 1 in the bag, me thinks. :)

You think? Despite the huge difference in sales versus We Are Young?

[moore746]

Mar 6, 2012 10:13:27 GMT -5 matelot said:

no Airplay for John Mayer's Shadow Days ?

I'd like to know too. SD was released on iTunes today and seems to be taking off.

[Agent Yoncé]

B.O.B - So Good: 12.728 (+ 1.217)
ADELE - Rumour Has It: 12.722 (+ 1.151)

Uh oh!

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2012 10:16:01 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

chartfreak- the Carly Rae single has been pretty big in Canada (from where she hails). She was a contestant on Canadian Idol several years back.

Was recently #1 in Canada too

[dbhmr]

I feel like I should know this, but where does kworb post his sales estimates? Someone mentioned that he pegged Fun. at more than 300k, so I'd like to see the rest of the top sellers.

[Deleted]

Kworb's predictions:

Sales estimates

1. Fun. - We Are Young: 322810
2. The Wanted - Glad You Came: 216305
3. Kelly Clarkson - Stronger: 214511
4. Nicki Minaj - Starships: 166690
5. Gotye - Somebody That I Used to Know: 156802
6. ADELE - Set Fire to the Rain: 153160
7. Far East Movement - Live My Life: 148965
8. Katy Perry - Part of Me: 148056
9. Carrie Underwood - Good Girl: 135236
10. Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa - Young, Wild & Free: 110959
11. Flo Rida - Wild Ones: 105680
12. B.o.B - So Good: 102992
13. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 101418
14. Tyga - Rack City: 101107
15. LMFAO - Sexy and I Know It: 96053
16. Drake - The Motto: 88965
17. David Guetta & Nicki Minaj - Turn Me On: 88948
18. Train - Drive By: 88018
19. Drake - Take Care: 86929
20. Pitbull - International Love: 77677
21. Adele - Rolling In the Deep: 76855
22. Chris Brown - Turn Up the Music: 74374
23. ADELE - Someone Like You: 70558
24. Flo Rida - Good Feeling: 70233
25. Coldplay - Paradise: 67721
26. Gym Class Heroes - Ass Back Home: 66201
27. ADELE - Rumour Has It: 64752
28. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful: 64730
29. Jessie J - Domino: 64375
30. Rihanna - We Found Love: 62135
31. LMFAO - Party Rock Anthem: 61187
32. Kanye West & JAY Z - Ni**as in Paris: 58254
33. Christina Perri - A Thousand Years: 57344
34. Jason Mraz - I Won't Give Up: 56416
35. Calvin Harris - Feel So Close: 52942
36. Miranda Lambert - Over You: 51709
37. Outasight - Tonight Is the Night: 50222
38. Gavin DeGraw - Not Over You: 48718
39. LMFAO - Sorry for Party Rocking: 47897
40. Lee Brice - A Woman Like You: 47168
41. Bruno Mars - It Will Rain: 44005
42. Taylor Swift - Safe & Sound: 43549
43. Big Sean - Dance: 43353
44. Usher - Climax: 42944
45. Luke Bryan - I Don't Want This Night to End: 42233
46. Skrillex - Bangarang: 42166
47. Nicki Minaj - Roman Reloaded: 42078
48. Maroon 5 - Moves Like Jagger: 41663
49. Kip Moore - Somethin' 'Bout a Truck: 40704
50. The Monkees - Daydream Believer: 40046

Hot 100 prediction

1-2. We Are Young (323 + 32 = 355)
1-2. Stronger (215 + 130 = 345)
3. Set Fire To The Rain (153 + 160 = 313)
4. Glad You Came (216 + 61 = 277)
5. Part Of Me (148 + 65 = 213)
6. Starships (167 + 36 = 203)
7-9. Young, Wild & Free (111 + 81 = 192)
7-9. Turn Me On (89 + 101 = 190)
7-9. Somebody That I Used To Know (157 + 29 = 186)
10. Take Care (87 + 89 = 176)
We Found Love (62 + 106 = 168)
The Motto (89 + 78 = 167)
Good Feeling (70 + 94 = 164)
Good Girl (135 + 25 = 160)
Rack City (101 + 57 = 158)

[Deleted]

Retro Top 10's for this week

1 year ago (3/19/11)

1 1 Born This Way - Lady Gaga (4th week of 6 @ #1)
2 2 F**k You! - Cee Lo Green
3 5 S&M - Rihanna
4 4 F**kin' Perfect - P!nk
5 9 On The Floor - Jennifer Lopez ft. Pitbull
6 3 Grenade - Bruno Mars
7 11 Blow - Ke$ha
8 8 E.T. - Katy Perry ft. Kanye West
9 7 Tonight (I'm Lovin' You) - Enrique Iglesias ft. Ludacris & DJ Frank E
10 6 Firework - Katy Perry

5 years ago (3/17/07)

1 1 This Is Why I'm Hot - Mims (2nd and final week @ #1)
2 2 Don't Matter - Akon
3 4 The Sweet Escape - Gwen Stefani ft. Akon
4 3 What Goes Around... Comes Around - Justin Timberlake
5 - Girlfriend - Avril Lavigne
6 8 This Ain't A Scene, It's An Arms Race - Fallout Boy
7 5 Cupid's Chokehold - Gym Class Heroes ft. Patrick Stump
8 55 Glamorous - Fergie ft. Ludacris
9 10 Break It Off - Rihanna & Sean Paul
10 6 Say It Right - Nelly Furtado

10 years ago (3/16/02)

1 1 Ain't It Funny - Jennifer Lopez ft. JaRule (2nd week of 6 @ #1)
2 2 Always On Time - JaRule ft. Ashanti
3 3 How You Remind Me - Nickelback
4 4 In The End - Linkin Park
5 6 Wherever You Will Go - The Calling
6 5 Hey Baby - No Doubt ft. Bounty Killer
7 8 What About Us? - Brandy
8 10 Blurry - Puddle Of Mud
9 7 U Got It Bad - Usher
10 12 Can't Get You Out Of My Head - Kylie Minogue

15 years ago (3/15/97)

1 1 Wannabe - Spice Girls (4th and final week @ #1)
2 2 Can't Nobody Hold Me Down - Puff Daddy ft. Mase
3 3 Un-Break My Heart - Toni Braxton
4 4 You Were Meant For Me / Foolish Games - Jewel
5 6 In My Bed - Dru Hill
6 5 I Believe I Can Fly - R Kelly
7 8 Every Time I Close My Eyes - Babyface
8 7 Don't let Go (Love) - En Vogue
9 - For You I Will - Monica
10 9 Don't Cry For Me Argentina - Madonna

----------------------------------
(Big for Kylie)

[HolidayGuy]

And what of kworb's level of accuracy in past weeks?

ry- maybe you can make special notes for big airplay hits that weren't represented on the Hot 100 at the time? I.e. "Don't Speak."

[Deleted]

Sure- Hot 100 airplay from 3/15/97 - Bolded the airplay only songs

1 1 Don't Speak - No Doubt (13th of 16 weeks @ #1)
2 2 Love Fool - Cardigans[/b]
3 3 Un-Break My Heart - Toni Braxton
4 4 You Were Meant For Me - Jewel
5 5 Don't Let Go (Love) - En Vogue
6 6 Wannabe - Spice Girls
7 9 Everyday Is A Winding Road - Sheryl Crow
8 7 A Long December - Counting Crows
9 12 One Headlight - Wallflowers
10 8 Don't Cry For Me Argentina - Madonna

**Winding Road wasn't released physically for another 2 weeks, so it didn't appear on the Hot 100 til 3/29/97. I bolded it anyway.

[damku13]

Thank you for including Carly Rae! She's doing great here in Canada, and I love the iTunes success she's getting in the US too!

[kingofpain]

Wow that would be awesome if Fun got the #1 this week. I hope Gotye gets in the top 10 finally...

[Deleted]

How accurate is Kworb usually in predicting sales estimates?

[wavey.]

Mar 6, 2012 13:48:45 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

How accurate is Kworb usually in predicting sales estimates?

Very accurate.

[jgizzle89]

USHER - Climax: 19.346 (+ 1.309)

NICE!

Obviously this won't do much on the HOT 100, but it should do great on R&B.

[Honeymoon]

Hopefully fun get that #1. I love Kelly but she's had her time to shine (until her next single comes anyway), I just think "We Are Young" is such a classic in waiting

[brucelover]

GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 27.882 (+ 0.206)

Fucking bullshit, this should be one of the greatest gainers. Why is American radio so adverse to playing it? The song is already Top 5 on iTunes, it's a great record and has been huge everywhere else.

[kingofpain]

Its supposed to go for adds next week I think. But that's just an adds date, that doesn't mean CHR will pick it up and add it. Radio doesn't reflect what's popular... Look at Domini by Jessie J. Number 6 on AirPlay and yet the song has barely hung in the top 30 on iTunes for the past three weeks. I don't get it either.

[When I Ruled the World]

I really hope Fun gets that #1!

[Stefan85]

Mar 6, 2012 18:47:52 GMT -5 brucelover said:

GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 27.882 (+ 0.206)

f**king bullshit, this should be one of the greatest gainers. Why is American radio so adverse to playing it? The song is already Top 5 on iTunes, it's a great record and has been huge everywhere else.

Well, Z100 and KIIS (the two biggest pop stations in America) have added this today, so expect the song to explode soon.

[Deleted]

I wish people would stop feeling as if airplay and sales were the same dynamic and need to function at the same pace. fun.'s contention for #1 and Gotye's contention for top 10 on the Hot 100 this week helps to show that airplay and sales do not need to mirroring each other all of the time in order to be successful on the charts. It wouldn't make any sense for Domino to suddenly start getting -10AI updates in order for it to match its iTunes position just because sales have leveled off even though the radio callout scores are still well-received.

[dbhmr]

It's looking like Fun. will get the #1 this week after all. I wanted Kelly to get one more week before Fun.'s reign, but it's a great song, too.

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2012 11:22:38 GMT -5 moore746 said:

Mar 6, 2012 10:50:46 GMT -5 @dsulkers said:

Kelly's got that 4th at No. 1 in the bag, me thinks. :)

You think? Despite the huge difference in sales versus We Are Young?

Yeah, just saw Fun.'s numbers, I don't know what to think anymore.