Billboard Hot 100: 03/17/12

[Love Plastic Love]

I am still scared that fun. will somehow just miss #1 every week and then decline in sales too rapidly to get it when airplay catches up. It really, really, really deserves one week at #1 on Billboard. Its sales dominance has been nothing short of amazing for a complete unknown with (until very recently) almost no airplay.
And yes, I know there was a commercial, but that doesn't make their dominance with a huge lead at #1 when we have Adele, Kelly, Katy, and multiple other huge sellers out at the same time any less impressive to me.
If they just get one week and then sit at #2 behind Kelly or someone else for the rest of their run I will be pleased.

I do agree that airplay and sales aren't the same dynamic at all. It is a bit frustrating though when a song is selling insane amounts of units, yet radio hesitates because it isn't another generic Dr. Luke or Dr. Luke sound-alike track. I know radio is conservative as hell and always will be and always will be more willing to play a generic, familiar track over the refreshing one that people are buying in droves, but it can still be a tad frustrating at first. However, I will say it usually does catch on. Gotye is starting to gain speed and fun. is currently exploding. It just takes them a couple weeks or months to feel safe playing something that isn't exactly what radio is used to playing.

[Deleted]

Eh, the only time a song gets "gypped" in that sort of manner (missing #1 by a few points week after week) in this day and age really only happens during transitioning between mega singles. (Such as the transition from Rolling In The Deep to Party Rock Anthem almost causing Give Me Everything to miss the top slot.) We Are Young is shaping up to be a mega single itself. With the current tracks that are high in airplay loosing their digital footing, it pretty much has a clear shot at being a multi-week #1 with nothing else really left to contend it currently. If it were to miss that it'd be because it really wasn't "gypped" and just because it was slightly not strong enough. But I feel it's in a good position for #1.

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2012 19:20:45 GMT -5 dbhmr said:

It's looking like Fun. will get the #1 this week after all. I wanted Kelly to get one more week before Fun.'s reign, but it's a great song, too.

It's not over yet. And even if it is, Kelly could take back #1 as soon as next week, it's not as if she hasn't done it before.

[Love Plastic Love]

I have had my heart broken too many times by a song just BARELY missing #1 (like, by a few points) that I never feel comfortable just saying OH THAT NEVER HAPPENS ANYMORE!!!! I am just never truly comfortable until I see that #1 all official. May just be a personal hang-up though

[josh]

Mar 6, 2012 20:15:09 GMT -5 Love Plastic Love said:

I have had my heart broken too many times by a song just BARELY missing #1 (like, by a few points) that I never feel comfortable just saying OH THAT NEVER HAPPENS ANYMORE!!!! I am just never truly comfortable until I see that #1 all official. May just be a personal hang-up though

</3

Lol, but what were the point values of Tik Tok and Bad Romance, does anyone happen to know? Just wondering how close Gaga was to getting that #1 or not.

[Deleted]

It was more Empire State Of Mind that blocked it than Tik Tok.

[josh]

Didn't Bad Romance peak at #2 for like 7 weeks, though? I've only been watching the charts for maybe a year, now haha

[Deleted]

Yeah, but 3 of those weeks were behind ESOM. Bad Romance was #1 on the digital chart for 4 weeks. ESOM was #1 on the Hot 100 during all those weeks. Tik Tok was ahead of BR in sales every single week it was #1. And ahead in airplay every single week as well, I think. I think it had to do with the Yankees winning the world series or something that made ESOM go #1.

[josh]

Yes please :)

[popstop]

I'm still annoyed about Gnarls Barkley not hitting #1.

[Deleted]

For Josh, approx point totals for Bad Romance's weeks.

ESOM = Empire State Of Mind
BR = Bad Romance
TT = Tik Tok
TWAFT = Today Was A Fairy Tale

=========================================================

Guide: Hot 100 Positon. Title: Sales + Mediabase = Approx Points

12/5/09
1. ESOM: 143.939 + 120.555 = 264.494
2. BR: 209.385 + 41.936 = 251.321
5. TT: 154.208 + 44.433 = 198.641

Difference = 13.173, close-ish

12/12/09
1. ESOM: 201.893 + 126.186 = 328.079
2. BR: 217.559 + 50.047 = 267.606
3. TT: 167.615 + 55.150 = 222.765

Difference = 60.743

12/19/09
1. ESOM: 144.765 + 125.891 = 270.656
2. BR: 189.171 + 62.691 = 251.862
3. TT: 160.174 + 66.842 = 227.016

Difference = 18.794, close-ish

12/26/09
1. ESOM: 136.720 + 125.051 = 261.771
2. TT: 181.834 + 77.236 = 259.047
3. BR: 182.527 + 76.020 = 258.547

Difference = 3.224, o____o that's one close Top 3 right there

1/2/10
1. TT: 221.493 + 88.950 = 310.443
2. ESOM: 147.699 + 119.118 = 266.817
3. BR: 169.886 + 85.257 = 255.143

Difference = 55.300

1/9/10 - ESOM is behind BR every week from here on out, so I'll ditch it
1. TT: 610.069 + 92.012 = 702.081
2. Replay: 446.816 + 104.010 = 550.826
3. BR: 444.911 + 92.531 = 537.442

Difference = 164.639, didn't stand a chance in the gift card week

1/16/10
1. TT: 394.418 + 94.150 = 488.568
2. BR: 303.138 + 94.703 = 397.841

Difference = 90.727

1/23/10
1. TT: 252.283 + 113.085 = 365.368
2. BR: 196.197 + 108.612 = 304.809

Difference = 60.559

1/30/10
1. TT: 244.480 + 122.315 = 366.795
2. BR: 173.064 + 114.241 = 287.305

Difference = 79.490

2/6/10
1. TT: 217.063 + 127.952 = 345.015
2. TWAFT: 325.002 + 1? = 326-ish
2. BR: 156.048 + 116.422 = 272.470

Difference = 72.545

2/13/10
1. TT: 199.824 + 131.460 = 331.284
2. BR: 157.745 + 118.348 = 276.093

Difference = 55.191

And BR fell from 2 to 5 on 2/20/10, so that's that. As you can see, BR was much closer when ESOM was #1, than when TT was #1.

[josh]

Thanks :) All I knew was Tik Tok was #1 for weeks, with Bad Romance behind it.

[Love Plastic Love]

Thank you for posting that! Very interesting to see.

[imbondz]

one thing I rarely see talked about here is timing of a song. some songs just have better timing than others. If fun. We Are Young doesn't reach #1, it just had bad timing. Bad Romance would have been #1 any other time during the year probably.

I remember when Sinead O'Connor's Nothing Compares 2 U was #1 for 4 weeks. The singles - Don't Wanna Fall In Love was #2 and Been Around The World was #3, and Billboard said both the #2 and #3 singles had huge point totals, and would have been #1 at any other time during the year, except that 4 week reign by Sinead. just bad timing.

[Enigma.]

Indeed, and that's why people shouldn't really say that all number one songs are "bigger hits" than some peaking at #2 or 3 because they may well have sold more and have better airplay.

But also, I don't like the expression of non-number one since all #1's deserve (bad word there) the pole position, no matter what.

[kml567]

Crap. Z100 has upgraded "We Are Young" to power rotation starting today. It's gonna be one of those annoying 10-week #1's like "We Found Love" again. arghhh

[HolidayGuy]

Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quick-Cut Airplay, 2/29/12-3/6/12

There should be nothing left for me to go back and bold today.

1. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 159.597 (- 0.346)
2. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 130.940 (+ 1.410)
3. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 107.490 (- 0.785)
4. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 101.503 (+ 1.099)
5. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 94.465 (- 1.326)
6. JESSIE J - Domino: 91.513 (- 0.095)
7. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 89.609 (+ 0.919)
8. WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 81.070 (+ 0.176)
9. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 78.098 (+ 0.632) ▲
10. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 77.781 (- 0.975) ▼
11. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 77.539 (+ 0.117)
12. GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 69.556 (+ 0.918)
13. KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 64.457 (+ 1.358) ▲
14. KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 64.324 (- 1.395) ▼
15. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 62.901 (- 0.437)
16. GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You: 62.857 (- 0.804) ▼
17. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 62.139 (+ 1.538)
18. TYGA - Rack City: 56.386 (- 0.575)
19. DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 55.478 (- 0.046)
20. ADELE - Someone Like You: 51.372 (+ 0.084)

OTHERS
LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 49.975 (- 0.976)
BEYONCE - Love On Top: 47.660 (- 0.019)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 42.084 (+ 0.908)
BLAKE SHELTON - Drink On It: 39.297 (+ 0.009)
RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 38.897 (+ 0.783)
CALVIN HARRIS - Feel So Close: 38.378 (+ 1.129)
CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 37.787 (+ 0.531)
NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 36.151 (+ 1.098)
TRAIN - Drive By: 34.621 (+ 0.363)
FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 32.567 (+ 2.367)
FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 30.060 (+ 1.176)
GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 28.422 (+ 0.540)
RIHANNA - Birthday Cake: 22.376 (+ 1.331)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 21.843 (+ 0.423)
USHER - Climax: 20.741 (+ 1.395)
LMFAO - Sorry For Party Rocking: 15.468 (- 0.802)
B.O.B - So Good: 13.831 (+ 1.103)
ADELE - Rumour Has It: 13.556 (+ 0.834)
FOO FIGHTERS - These Days: 13.319 (- 0.172)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 11.941 (+ 0.189)
KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 11.716 (+ 0.414)
FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Don't Stop (Color On The Walls: 11.392 (- 0.355)
COLDPLAY - Princess Of China: 10.563 (- 0.083)
ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 8.607 (+ 0.709)
FAR EAST MOVEMENT - Live My Life f/Justin Bieber: 2.083 (- 0.022)

[gracelessheart]

Mar 6, 2012 22:04:04 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

For Josh, approx point totals for Bad Romance's weeks.

ESOM = Empire State Of Mind
BR = Bad Romance
TT = Tik Tok
TWAFT = Today Was A Fairy Tale

=========================================================

Guide: Hot 100 Positon. Title: Sales + Mediabase = Approx Points

12/5/09
1. ESOM: 143.939 + 120.555 = 264.494
2. BR: 209.385 + 41.936 = 251.321
5. TT: 154.208 + 44.433 = 198.641

Difference = 13.173, close-ish

12/12/09
1. ESOM: 201.893 + 126.186 = 328.079
2. BR: 217.559 + 50.047 = 267.606
3. TT: 167.615 + 55.150 = 222.765

Difference = 60.743

12/19/09
1. ESOM: 144.765 + 125.891 = 270.656
2. BR: 189.171 + 62.691 = 251.862
3. TT: 160.174 + 66.842 = 227.016

Difference = 18.794, close-ish

12/26/09
1. ESOM: 136.720 + 125.051 = 261.771
2. TT: 181.834 + 77.236 = 259.047
3. BR: 182.527 + 76.020 = 258.547

Difference = 3.224, o____o that's one close Top 3 right there

1/2/10
1. TT: 221.493 + 88.950 = 310.443
2. ESOM: 147.699 + 119.118 = 266.817
3. BR: 169.886 + 85.257 = 255.143

Difference = 55.300

1/9/10 - ESOM is behind BR every week from here on out, so I'll ditch it
1. TT: 610.069 + 92.012 = 702.081
2. Replay: 446.816 + 104.010 = 550.826
3. BR: 444.911 + 92.531 = 537.442

Difference = 164.639, didn't stand a chance in the gift card week

1/16/10
1. TT: 394.418 + 94.150 = 488.568
2. BR: 303.138 + 94.703 = 397.841

Difference = 90.727

1/23/10
1. TT: 252.283 + 113.085 = 365.368
2. BR: 196.197 + 108.612 = 304.809

Difference = 60.559

1/30/10
1. TT: 244.480 + 122.315 = 366.795
2. BR: 173.064 + 114.241 = 287.305

Difference = 79.490

2/6/10
1. TT: 217.063 + 127.952 = 345.015
2. TWAFT: 325.002 + 1? = 326-ish
2. BR: 156.048 + 116.422 = 272.470

Difference = 72.545

2/13/10
1. TT: 199.824 + 131.460 = 331.284
2. BR: 157.745 + 118.348 = 276.093

Difference = 55.191

And BR fell from 2 to 5 on 2/20/10, so that's that. As you can see, BR was much closer when ESOM was #1, than when TT was #1.

Those were three monster songs. Interesting to see. Would have liked to see Gaga sneak in there, though.

[#LisaRinna]

USHER - Climax: 20.741 (+ 1.395)

Yeah man! Pop radio better get on board!

[popstop]

What caused ESOM's spike in sales the week of 12/12? That was well after the World Series. Looks like Gaga may have had a good shot without the spike.

[KMJ1]

so...what abt this week? lol. why hasnt anyone posted sales or total airplay #s yet? or even predictions? :)

[HolidayGuy]

^You should know that Billboard releases sales for the top 10 in the a.m. :) The Mediabase airplay for today appears a few posts up.

[Agent Yoncé]

FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 32.567 (+ 2.367)
USHER - Climax: 20.741 (+ 1.395)
B.O.B - So Good: 13.831 (+ 1.103)

:o :o :o

[HolidayGuy]

Billboard.com

Over on the Digital Songs chart this week, fun.'s "We Are Young" (featuring Janelle Monae), is steady at No. 1 with 302,000 (up 4%) while the Wanted's "Glad You Came" surges 3-2 with 206,000 (up 10%).

Kelly Clarkson's "Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)" slips 2-3 (197,000; down 18%), Nicki Minaj's "Starships" rises 7-4 (161,000; up 4%) and Gotye's "Somebody That I Used to Know" (featuring Kimbra) is up 8-5 (149,000; up 11%). Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" falls 5-6 (145,000; down 13%) and Katy Perry's "Part of Me" is down 4-7 (142,000; down 24%).

The chart's highest debut is found at No. 8, where Far*East Movement's "Live My Life" (featuring Justin Bieber) starts with 127,000. Right behind them is Carrie Underwood's "Good Girl," rising 12-9 in its first full week of sales (119,000; up 11%). Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa's "Young, Wild & Free" is up a slot to No. 10 with 109,000 (down 3%).

Digital track sales this past week totaled 27.12 million downloads, down 4% compared to last week (24.13 million) and up 7% stacked next to the comparable week of 2011 (25.45 million). Year to date track sales are at 258.04 million, up 7% compared to the same total at this point last year (240.61 million).

[HolidayGuy]

Looks pretty close for No. 1:

We Are Young: 30,200 + 3,257= 33,457
Stronger: 19,700 + 13,094= 32,794

Will streaming make a difference? Also- the larger the airplay, the greater the discrepancy (usually) between Mediabase and BDS.

[dbhmr]

Wow, painfully close between them! I really think Fun. has it in the bag for next week, and I think it will fall to them this week as much as I wish--for no real reason other than it'd just be cool--Kelly could just get one more week. Great, great songs battling it out for the top, though. Always nice to see!

[pnobelysk]

Idol songs

Kelly Clarkson, Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) (196,000, -18%, 1.929 million)
Carrie Underwood, Good Girl (119,000, +11%, 227,000)
Kelly Clarkson, Mr. Know It All (20,000, -27%, 1.347 million)
Scotty McCreery, The Trouble With Girls (19,000, -7%, 589,000)
Jennifer Hudson & Ne-Yo feat. Rick Ross, Think Like a Man (13,000, +189%, 49,000)
Brad Paisley/Carrie Underwood, Remind Me (10,000, -6%, 1.456 million)
Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson, Don't You Wanna Stay (9,000, -32%, 1.978 million)
Lauren Alaina, Georgia Peaches (7,000, -3%, 88,000)
Carrie Underwood, Before He Cheats (7,000, +4%, 3.413 million)
Carrie Underwood, Cowboy Casanova (6,000, +27%, 1.775 million)
Casey James, Let's Don't Call It a Night (6,000, +6%, 69,000)
Carrie Underwood, Undo It (5,000, +3%, 1.275 million)
Mandisa, Good Morning (3,000, -3%, 65,000)
Carrie Underwood, How Great Thou Art (2,000, -5%, 304,000)
Mandisa, Stronger (2,000, -14%, 166,000)

Idol-related

Glee Cast, What Doesn't Kill You (Stronger) (13,000, -74%, 65,000)

Songs from the show

Adele, Set Fire to the Rain (145,000, -13%, 3.111 million)
Adele, Someone Like You (64,000, -25%, 4.605 million)
Maroon 5 feat. Christina Aguilera, Moves Like Jagger (43,000, -12%, 4.634 million)
Adele, One and Only (20,000, +128%, 300,000)
Lady Gaga, The Edge of Glory (13,000, +3%, 2.44 million)
Hunter Hayes, Storm Warning (8,000, +18%, 364,000)
Carrie Underwood, Cowboy Casanova (6,000, +27%, 1.775 million)

[Deleted]

Mar 7, 2012 11:10:42 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Looks pretty close for No. 1:

We Are Young: 30,200 + 3,257= 33,457
Stronger: 19,700 + 13,094= 32,794

Will streaming make a difference? Also- the larger the airplay, the greater the discrepancy (usually) between Mediabase and BDS.

Would that discrepancy tend to favor fun. or Kelly?

[pnobelysk]

Nice to see Kelly will get her third 2 million seller next week with Stronger, and a 4th in a few more weeks with Dont you wanna stay. Stronger has a possibiliy of becoming her first three million seller.

Great for Good Girl, will be another easy million seller for Carrie.

Great numbers for One and Only from Adele. It is possible by the end of 21's massive run it will be gold.

[HolidayGuy]

^Since "Stronger" is much higher in airplay, that could work in fun.'s favor. :)