Billboard Hot 100: 06/23/12

[stuntbox]

Jun 7, 2012 12:51:00 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Oy. I'm not trying to discredit Mediabase. I feel like this happens a lot on this board -- I make one point and somehow people think I'm saying something completely different.

Mediabase is great. The numbers are great to know. They are a great way to see relative performance. I'm not trying to discredit them at all.

The ONLY thing I think is silly is caring about things like "the 200m threshold" and then comparing it to other songs as some sort of record -- Gotye is not necessarily any bigger of an airplay hit than all the songs that were peaking in the 160-170 range over the past few years, it's just benefitting from a rather dramatic change in how they calculate audience impressions that boosted everyone across the board. So I feel like it's incredibly misleading to make that comparison.

Billboard changes all the time also, yes. The market changes all the time too. You can never have super accurate pure comparisons because of that. And as far as I can tell, Billboard typically will add some note if a new "record" is influenced by a change in methodology (hence seeing statements like "during the digital era" or "since Soundscan was introduced" or "since the airplay panel was expanded in 1998" often accompanying news articles).

If people care about this 200m thing then that's fine, but I don't understand it, because anyone following the charts the past year knows that these numbers that songs are getting are different across the board and not actually representative of some sudden shift that one day 30% more of the country started listening to the radio.

You make valid points but I think people gravitatate toward the 200m number because it's an easy round number and only the truly huge songs ever reach that number when it comes to airplay.

[jebsib]

The other thing to keep in mind is that CHR radio programmers see this number (200m) more than any one in the general population do, and they are influenced far more by Mediabase stats than even iTunes sales.

[Honeymoon]

Jun 7, 2012 13:08:15 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

It's not like Billboard doesn't have the same problem. If I recall correctly, "Since U Been Gone" and "Tonight Tonight" are both somewhere around 2.4 million sales. Does that mean "Tonight Tonight" was as big a hit as "Since U Been Gone"? No.

This is probably the best point in this whole discussion.

[forg]

Call Me Maybe vs Payphone for the next 2 months?

[Honeymoon]

2012 is going to rival 2010 for best year of Hot 100 #1s for the last decade. The only song I haven't liked is "Sexy & I Know It" but I get its novelty appeal.

The only weak link in 2010 was "Like a G6"

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 198.160 (- 0.559)
2. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 147.754 (- 1.937)
3. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 143.272 (+ 2.652) ▲
4. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 143.224 (+ 1.548) ▼[/b]
5. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 124.042 (- 1.793)
6. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 118.445 (- 1.295)
7. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 116.635 (+ 1.276)
8. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 114.325 (- 0.863)
9. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 90.550 (- 0.863)
10. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 88.736 (+ 2.657)
11. TRAIN - Drive By: 84.554 (- 0.795)
12. JUSTIN BIEBER - Boyfriend: 79.594 (+ 0.814)
13. USHER - Scream: 78.804 (+ 0.552)
14. ADELE - Rumour Has It: 73.323 (- 1.548)
15. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 73.047 (- 1.170)
16. KIRKO BANGZ - Drank In My Cup: 64.882 (- 0.770) ▲
17. KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 64.787 (- 1.732) ▼
18. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 62.962 (- 1.072)
19. ERIC CHURCH - Springsteen: 60.608 (+ 0.482)
20. KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 60.100 (+ 0.435)

OTHERS:

ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 57.317 (- 1.105)
LUKE BRYAN - Drunk On You: 56.229 (+ 0.853)
PITBULL - Back In Time: 53.693 (+ 0.294)
KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 52.405 (+ 2.579)
ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 50.058 (+ 0.851)
CA$H OUT - Cashin' Out: 48.236 (+ 1.588)
DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 46.598 (+ 0.624)
DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 38.664 (+ 0.443)
CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 36.190 (+ 1.129)
GYM CLASS HEROES - The Fighter f/Ryan Tedder: 35.425 (+ 0.357)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 31.275 (- 0.079)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 23.148 (+ 0.104)
RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 20.972 (+ 0.130)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 18.541 (+ 0.261)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 15.976 (+ 0.543)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 12.405 (+ 0.019)
B.O.B - Both Of Us f/Taylor Swift: 12.114 (+ 0.521)
FUN. - Some Nights: 8.037 (+ 0.306)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 5.181 (+ 0.504)

[NeRD]

10. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 88.736 (+ 2.657)


Its slow and steady rise is giving CMM, Payphone, and SIUTK plenty of time to peak and fall putting it in great position to eventually reach #1.

[skizzo]

Streaming has ruined the chart, so so boring....

[Au$tin]

Jun 8, 2012 8:13:11 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Streaming has ruined the chart, so so boring....

It has perfected the chart. The main reason the chart is there is to show which songs are the most popular. Which factor do you think shows the general public's favor of songs? Airplay? Nope, that's PDs calling the shot there. Sales? Well, sort of. It shows what people are buying, but (normal) people only buy one copy of a song. Their purchase only counts for one week. So it shows popularity to a point. Streaming? Yes. It shows what people are listening to. It's stronger at showing popularity with the general public than sales.

[Rican@]

Wow, I didn't know Usher and Rihanna have a 10million gap when they were neck to neck for weeks

[popstop]

Jun 8, 2012 8:50:23 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jun 8, 2012 8:13:11 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Streaming has ruined the chart, so so boring....

It has perfected the chart. The main reason the chart is there is to show which songs are the most popular. Which factor do you think shows the general public's favor of songs? Airplay? Nope, that's PDs calling the shot there. Sales? Well, sort of. It shows what people are buying, but (normal) people only buy one copy of a song. Their purchase only counts for one week. So it shows popularity to a point. Streaming? Yes. It shows what people are listening to. It's stronger at showing popularity with the general public than sales.

I agree with you, Austin. It is a better chart. It is also a more boring chart. I will miss the volatility of the past few years. At least the sales are more interesting these days than pre-2005 when the chart was practically airplay only.

[Deleted]

The Hot 100 isn't designed to be "interesting".

[popstop]

Well of course not. Regardless, I am guessing many of us here aren't financially invested in the music industry, but still have a huge interest in movement on the chart, and one reason why we gather here on this topic.

[WotUNeed]

Jun 8, 2012 12:11:31 GMT -5 popstop said:

Well of course not. Regardless, I am guessing many of us here aren't financially invested in the music industry, but still have a huge interest in movement on the chart, and one reason why we gather here on this topic.

I do enjoy watching the chart, but the reason I enjoy watching is it because it is reflective of something I love: popular music. If I had any reason to believe Billboard had the ability to make the Hot 100 more accurate, but chose not to do so because it affected something trivial like the speed at which a typical song climbed or fell, I would lose interest in that chart. It wouldn't really mean much anymore, because it would no longer truly be measuring what it purports to measure as accurately as it could.

[popstop]

I don't think anyone is complaining about the methodology. The chart is now much more accurate, and monotony now comes with the territory.

[Deleted]

I feel they're on the right track, but that they've really underscored the significance of sales in the process. Not in regard to how it's weighted against streaming, but how sales are weighted against radio airplay right now seems very off base.

[kml567]

Jun 8, 2012 22:28:45 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I feel they're on the right track, but that they've really underscored the significance of sales in the process. Not in regard to how it's weighted against streaming, but how sales are weighted against radio airplay right now seems very off base.

Airplay counting twice as much as sales is what's hurting the slowness of the Hot 100, not streaming.

In the other thread, we did some math and figured out Billboard now multiplies airplay by approximately a factor of 2 (in the past, it was only a factor of 1). I think that messed up the chart far more than the inclusion of streaming (I'm fine with the "1 sale = ~10 streams" rule).

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2012 22:48:37 GMT -5 kml567 said:

Jun 8, 2012 22:28:45 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I feel they're on the right track, but that they've really underscored the significance of sales in the process. Not in regard to how it's weighted against streaming, but how sales are weighted against radio airplay right now seems very off base.

Airplay counting twice as much as sales is what's hurting the slowness of the Hot 100, not streaming.

In the other thread, we did some math and figured out Billboard now multiplies airplay by approximately a factor of 2 (in the past, it was only a factor of 1). I think that messed up the chart far more than the inclusion of streaming (I'm fine with the "1 sale = ~10 streams" rule).

Yep, that's what I'm saying. When they added streaming they also ended up causing airplay to be weighted much more than sales respectively and that just isn't accurate in my opinion.

[cesarams]

SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 196.999 (- 1.161)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 146.122 (+ 2.850) ▲
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 144.629 (+ 1.405) ▲[/b]
4. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 144.574 (- 3.180) ▼
5. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 122.040 (- 2.002)
6. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 117.439 (- 1.006)
7. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 117.074 (+ 0.439)
8. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 113.880 (- 0.445)
9. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 90.662 (+ 1.926) ▲
10. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 89.805 (- 0.745) ▼
11. TRAIN - Drive By: 83.561 (- 0.993)
12. JUSTIN BIEBER - Boyfriend: 80.268 (+ 0.674)
13. USHER - Scream: 78.619 (- 0.185)
14. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 72.516 (- 0.531) ▲
15. ADELE - Rumour Has It: 72.245 (- 1.078) ▼
16. KIRKO BANGZ - Drank In My Cup: 64.128 (- 0.754)
17. KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 62.620 (- 2.167)
18. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 62.112 (- 0.850)
19. ERIC CHURCH - Springsteen: 61.013 (+ 0.405)
20. KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 60.152 (+ 0.052)

OTHERS:

LUKE BRYAN - Drunk On You: 57.053 (+ 0.824)
ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 56.724 (- 0.593)
KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 55.299 (+ 2.894)
PITBULL - Back In Time: 53.950 (+ 0.257)
ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 51.384 (+ 1.326)
CA$H OUT - Cashin' Out: 49.412 (+ 1.176)
DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 47.345 (+ 0.747)
DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 39.289 (+ 0.625)
CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 37.088 (+ 0.898)
GYM CLASS HEROES - The Fighter f/Ryan Tedder: 35.792 (+ 0.367)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 31.024 (- 0.251)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 23.458 (+ 0.310)
RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 20.981 (+ 0.009)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 18.598 (+ 0.057)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 16.456 (+ 0.480)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 12.605 (+ 0.200)
B.O.B - Both Of Us f/Taylor Swift: 12.455 (+ 0.341)
CHRIS BROWN - Sweet Love: 10.711
FUN. - Some Nights: 8.268 (+ 0.231)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 5.667 (+ 0.486)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 2.712
CIARA - Sweat f/2 Chainz: 1.337
RIHANNA - Cockiness (Love It): 0.047

[jebsib]

I agree that the #1 objective is an accurate chart. Personally though, there was nothing worse than the Hot 100 charts of the mid 90s when the charts were so slow that it started to affect the release scheduling of hit singles from albums.

[SPRΞΞ]

Usher peaked?

[Verisimilitude]

Jun 9, 2012 7:58:36 GMT -5 jebsib said:

I agree that the #1 objective is an accurate chart. Personally though, there was nothing worse than the Hot 100 charts of the mid 90s when the charts were so slow that it started to affect the release scheduling of hit singles from albums.

I'll see your Hot 100 of the '90s and raise you the Hot 100 from 2002-2004.

[jgizzle89]

Jun 9, 2012 10:38:00 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Usher peaked?

I really hope not. I figured this song could at least make it to 100 mil. "Scream" really just hasn't been doing that well. Airplay is OK, and sales are pretty low...

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Scream isn't that good but it's not terrible either. It's performing the way it should given its quality.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Jun 8, 2012 8:50:23 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jun 8, 2012 8:13:11 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Streaming has ruined the chart, so so boring....

It has perfected the chart. The main reason the chart is there is to show which songs are the most popular. Which factor do you think shows the general public's favor of songs? Airplay? Nope, that's PDs calling the shot there. Sales? Well, sort of. It shows what people are buying, but (normal) people only buy one copy of a song. Their purchase only counts for one week. So it shows popularity to a point. Streaming? Yes. It shows what people are listening to. It's stronger at showing popularity with the general public than sales.

are you sure about that? What's the difference between on demand streaming and regular streaming? The money. Some interesting points in your post but it raises more questions about streaming than it answers because of some of its inaccurate assumptions.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Jun 8, 2012 22:48:37 GMT -5 kml567 said:

Jun 8, 2012 22:28:45 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I feel they're on the right track, but that they've really underscored the significance of sales in the process. Not in regard to how it's weighted against streaming, but how sales are weighted against radio airplay right now seems very off base.

Airplay counting twice as much as sales is what's hurting the slowness of the Hot 100, not streaming.

In the other thread, we did some math and figured out Billboard now multiplies airplay by approximately a factor of 2 (in the past, it was only a factor of 1). I think that messed up the chart far more than the inclusion of streaming (I'm fine with the "1 sale = ~10 streams" rule).

Definitely what I was thinking. Sales should be at least 100k sales = 100 million airplay.

[HolidayGuy]

Euliss, still trying to find correlation between a track's perceive quality and how it performs on the charts? C'mon, now. :) There always will be people who do not like a big hit, and there always will be people who do- and that goes for any size hit. There are other factors that come into play in regards to how a track performs.

The On-Demand chart has made the chart less easy to crash in at No. 1- not that that happened a whole lot over the last seven years, anyhow.

[jebsib]

Looking at this week's On Demand Top 20, I'm not sure why what, other than "We Found Love" in the low teens, is the perceived slow-down problem. Much of the top 10 seems like a current airplay chart. In fact there are new songs by fun., Tyga and Kanye that are significantly higher than their Hot 100 placements.

I have always felt (at least since 1993) that airplay is the slowest component.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2012 13:27:33 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Euliss, still trying to find correlation between a track's perceive quality and how it performs on the charts? C'mon, now. :) There always will be people who do not like a big hit, and there always will be people who do- and that goes for any size hit. There are other factors that come into play in regards to how a track performs.

.

yes, to me quality has always been in the eye of the beholder and not something you can measure.

Now, popularity you can measure (or try to) which is what these charts do

[Deleted]

With summer releases coming in, the "slowness" problem should fade away