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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:13:15 GMT -5
Does Call Me Maybe have chance to stay at no.1 Hot 100 for 10th week? It will be hard, Lights is gaining fast, just as Whistle. Maybe there will be a surprise and Wide Awake will take #1, but I don't think that. I'm almost sure that if she would stay at #1 it will be her last week. The new song from Taylor Swift will probably debut at #1, and after that Whistle and Lights will be too strong. Maybe the new songs from Ke$ha or Lady Gaga will be out by then. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:14:22 GMT -5
I think I have a good guess as the formula... did some number crunching and I think it's not that complicated. 1 point for every 1k sales 1 point for every 10k on-demand streaming 1.5 points for every 1m audience impressions With a little bit of wiggle room for passive streaming points it has worked when I looked at past charts where we had data and it was almost 100% accurate. It even got Maroon 5 and Bieber's debuts right. The only close call it had wrong is it shows M5 would've been ahead of Katy by less than 3 points on the 8/11 chart -- but I think passive streaming could've made the difference. Anyway I'd seen some people coming up with pretty complex formulas and I suspected Billboard would not be doing something so complicated since their formulas in the past were fairly straightforward. Can you maybe put your predictions on the thread today, because it's a hard week and it will be difficult to see wich song will be #1. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:35:28 GMT -5
Airplay update (8/14/2012)
1. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 164.790 (- 0.139)
2. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 162.070 (+ 1.062)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 149.665 (- 2.748)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 138.880 (- 2.070)
5. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 123.426 (- 2.158)
6. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 122.681 (- 0.601)
7. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 105.901 (+ 1.159)
8. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 101.244 (+ 0.424)
9. USHER - Scream: 98.548 (- 2.640)
10. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 92.098 (+ 1.068)
11. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 91.993 (+ 0.902) ¥
12. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 84.699 (+ 1.497)
13. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 73.106 (+ 1.473)
14. LOVE AND THEFT - Angel Eyes: 64.486 (+ 0.263)
15. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 63.827 (- 1.274)
16. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 63.254 (- 0.085)
17. GLORIANA - (Kissed You) Good Night: 61.932 (- 0.282)
18. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 59.986 (- 1.227)
19. BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 59.140 (+ 0.824)
20. KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 58.518 (- 0.770) ¥
Others
KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 58.441 (- 0.136)
NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 58.307 (- 0.744)
2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 57.485 (+ 0.757)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 55.998 (+ 0.657)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 54.397 (+ 0.771)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 54.039 (+ 0.421)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 53.873 (- 0.584)
FUN. - Some Nights: 49.781 (+ 1.370)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 47.940 (+ 0.030)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 47.803 (+ 1.581)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 44.073 (+ 0.157)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 42.035 (+ 0.714)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 40.990 (+ 0.042)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 37.837 (+ 1.315)
GROUPLOVE - Tongue Tied: 36.044 (- 0.269)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 32.408 (+ 0.503)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 30.693 (+ 0.057)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 27.878 (+ 0.466)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 26.517 (+ 0.094)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.394 (- 0.198)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.458 (+ 0.963)
KILLERS - Runaways: 7.369 (- 0.089)
TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 5.950
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 2.361 (+ 0.015)
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alchemy
Charting
Joined: March 2012
Posts: 72
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Post by alchemy on Aug 14, 2012 6:40:25 GMT -5
I really hope "Lights" has enough to lift up to #1 this week on the Hot 100.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:51:32 GMT -5
Other airplay updates
(08/14/2012) 1 day airplay update
Josh Turner - Time Is Love: 51.820 (+ 0.801)
Trey Songz ft. T.I. - 2 Reasons: 38.901 (+ 0.738)
Wale ft. Rick Ross - Bag Of Money: 37.143 (+ 0.490)
Alex Clare - Too Close: 36.658 (+ 0.682)
Meek Mill ft. Drake & Jeremih - Amen: 35.401 (+ 0.883)
Miguel - Adorn: 22.668 (+ 0.661)
Lady Antebellum: Wanted You More: 18.00 (- 0.305)
Keyshia Cole - Enough Of Love: 18.276 (+ 0.072)
David Guetta ft. Lil Wayne & Chris Brown - I Can Only Imagine: 15.088 (+ 1.222)
Ne-Yo - Let Me Love You: 14.164 (+ 1.051)
Ed Sheeran - The A Team: 12.599 (+ 0.037)
Afrojack ft. Shermanology: Can't Stop Me: 8.239 (- 1.908)
Pitbull ft. Shakira - Get It Started: 7.134 (+ 0.093)
Mumford & Sons - I Will Wait: 7.979 (+ 1.278)
Hello (Karmin song): 3.285 (+ 0.116)
You can ask me for other airplay updates, that aren't on the normal daily airplay update.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:52:09 GMT -5
WOW, Taylor is at #1 on iTunes, and is selling more than double as the #2. I don't think I've ever seen something so huge on iTunes. We had to wait for a long time, but finally there's a new, fresh hit coming.
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kingofpain
Platinum Member
You give me the sweetest taboo.
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,816
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Post by kingofpain on Aug 14, 2012 6:55:07 GMT -5
Yikes why did Afrojack lose everything it gained yesterday and then some!!
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Post by Rocky on Aug 14, 2012 6:55:51 GMT -5
^ Gotye also pushed back #2 to 0.4, I believe. And then there was Born This Way (#2 at 0.3), wasn't that long time ago.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 6:56:06 GMT -5
Yikes why did Afrojack lose everything it gained yesterday and then some!! I don't know why it did. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 6:57:06 GMT -5
Looks like Carly will already fall under Gotye tomorrow. No chance for a Year End #1 now.
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Post by Rocky on Aug 14, 2012 7:00:03 GMT -5
Looks like Carly will already fall under Gotye tomorrow. No chance for a Year End #1 now. Bless this post. I hope so, that STIUTK will top this year. Just praying for Call Me Maybe to fall out of iTunes top 10 already. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 7:02:55 GMT -5
"Year end #1's" are not determined by weeks at #1
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Post by Rocky on Aug 14, 2012 7:12:12 GMT -5
Yes, there were some year-end #1s that didn't even hit #1 on Hot 100. Faith Hill - Breathe?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 7:15:43 GMT -5
"Year end #1's" are not determined by weeks at #1 Who said it was? |
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872 
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 14, 2012 7:19:42 GMT -5
Alex & Miguel :)
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 7:20:02 GMT -5
Taylor Sold 133,042 digital tracks worldwide in her first day.
That means that in this tempo she will 931,294 digital tracks within one week. :o :o :o :o
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Aug 14, 2012 7:25:33 GMT -5
TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 5.950
^ And that's just in a few hours at night. Tomorrow's update is going to be INSANE.
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Post by jj99$ - - LeLe on Aug 14, 2012 7:39:31 GMT -5
Taylor's Song is going to be an Instant Multi Format Smash With its Radio Deal.
Its Already #31 on AC and #44 on Country with just a few Hours Play..
Tomorrows Updates will be Insane.
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Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 7:55:41 GMT -5
popbars:
1 Taylor Swift - We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 1.0000
2 Phillip Phillips - Home 0.4000
WANEGBT is still gaining, and it's only been a couple hours. Tomorrows Updates is going to be INSANE.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 8:02:29 GMT -5
Anybody want to hazard a guess as to the mental stability of tomorrow's updates?
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HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 33,918
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 14, 2012 8:12:49 GMT -5
The AC rank doesn't equal a huge amount of spins. But, does the Taylor track have a radio promo? Doesn't sound all that county in this incarnation. But, it's TS, so some stations will play it initially out of curiosity.
And the power of TS continues to shine. Not many can release a brand-new track, hot off the presses, and see it instantly shoot to the top.
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Post by Rocky on Aug 14, 2012 8:13:38 GMT -5
Oh, at last something will shake up those hyperboring charts.
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Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 8:16:15 GMT -5
Anybody want to hazard a guess as to the mental stability of tomorrow's updates? INSANE |
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Agent Yoncé
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 14, 2012 8:18:33 GMT -5
Tempted to hear Swifter's new song.
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 8:24:03 GMT -5
I really hope "Lights" has enough to lift up to #1 this week on the Hot 100. It may not, she's been losing sales all week and that will hurt her chances. |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 8:25:42 GMT -5
Yes, there were some year-end #1s that didn't even hit #1 on Hot 100. Faith Hill - Breathe? Only a very few. Almost all the year end #1's have been songs that hit #1 during that year. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 8:54:46 GMT -5
But quite often it is not the one with the most weeks at #1, If Carly Rae falls from #1 this week, "Call Me Maybe" may very well get #1 for the year still, it depends on how slow the descent is
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Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623
My Charts
Pronouns: He/his/him
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Post by Au$tin on Aug 14, 2012 8:59:39 GMT -5
She'll be #3 I'm pretty sure. fun. and Gotye have a longer chart run and are having very strong staying power. I'm sure Carly will stay on the chart for a long time too, but her airplay is falling faster than the other two songs were at this point.
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Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
Diamond Member
All Lives Can’t Matter Until Black Lives Matter
Joined: February 2008
Posts: 18,436
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Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Aug 14, 2012 9:01:43 GMT -5
With the new formula in place, wouldn't a song need to sell close to 800k or more to debut at #1?
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Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 9:05:36 GMT -5
With the new formula in place, wouldn't a song need to sell close to 800k or more to debut at #1? That's if it's AI was low, but the radio deal will assure that it isn't. It'd be great if they put this on Spotify ASAP though. |
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