Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623 
My Charts
Pronouns: He/his/him
|
Post by Au$tin on Aug 14, 2012 9:06:03 GMT -5
With the new formula in place, wouldn't a song need to sell close to 800k or more to debut at #1? Not at the moment. The charts are extremely weak with the top song not even reaching 250k. Streaming is also lower than it was a few weeks ago too with the top song not even over 1 million. So a strong debut of 450-500k could potentially get #1. |
|
moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
|
Post by moore746 on Aug 14, 2012 9:16:06 GMT -5
With the new formula in place, wouldn't a song need to sell close to 800k or more to debut at #1? That's if it's AI was low, but the radio deal will assure that it isn't. It'd be great if they put this on Spotify ASAP though. Wouldn't that kind of be a wash, though, chart-wise? Spotify may hinder first-week sales. |
|
|
|
Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 9:18:03 GMT -5
That's if it's AI was low, but the radio deal will assure that it isn't. It'd be great if they put this on Spotify ASAP though. Wouldn't that kind of be a wash, though, chart-wise? Spotify may hinder first-week sales. I guess? But the track is already steaming on non-billboard-monitored sites, so getting it on Spotify will give it at least a little streaming credit. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 9:34:37 GMT -5
With the new formula in place, wouldn't a song need to sell close to 800k or more to debut at #1? Not at the moment. The charts are extremely weak with the top song not even reaching 250k. Streaming is also lower than it was a few weeks ago too with the top song not even over 1 million. So a strong debut of 450-500k could potentially get #1. Depends on the formula but the current #1 has around ~270 chart points, which is equal to around 400k-450k sales on most formulas, and that's not even taking into account how Taylor will probably have around 50-60 million AI, so she'd only have to sell ~300-350k, which she should easily pass. A #1 debut seems very likely if she passes 400k. She'll be #3 I'm pretty sure. fun. and Gotye have a longer chart run and are having very strong staying power. I'm sure Carly will stay on the chart for a long time too, but her airplay is falling faster than the other two songs were at this point. She's 3 weeks away from passing fun. in sales, and then there's another 8 or so weeks to catch up on airplay. It's not guaranteed, but I think she has a chance. Edit: Yes I meant Mediabase with the 50-60 million AI, but I see it getting 40 on BDS. |
|
Enyasurvivor
Platinum Member
"We're not meant to be perfect. It took me a long time to learn that."
|
Post by Enyasurvivor on Aug 14, 2012 9:36:02 GMT -5
I just checked and it's not on my spotify at least
|
|
|
|
Post by noodlerestaurant1 on Aug 14, 2012 9:38:53 GMT -5
And CMM still has chance to stay at no.1 on Hot 100 for 10th week?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 9:41:34 GMT -5
can Carly Rae Jepsen log a 10th week at No. 1 with "Call Me Maybe"? Find out Wednesday (Aug. 15) Are all 11 of your posts really asking this exact same question in different threads? |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 9:47:02 GMT -5
But Taylor may have enough airplay to debut on the chart THIS week, and it won't be at #1.
Airplay points are monitered through tonight and we already know she has accumulated some already.
|
|
badrobot
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2006
Posts: 3,392
|
Post by badrobot on Aug 14, 2012 9:48:53 GMT -5
The charts are significantly less competitive than they were earlier this spring when M5 and Justin debuted with huge sales but not at #1. (And actually if my formula is right Justin wasn't really as close as people think -- fun had quite a large margin still.) I think Taylor could fairly easily be #1.
If my formula (ratio of 1 : 1.5 : 0.1 for sales/airplay/streaming) is right, Carly had about 412 points last week.
Taylor would only need to sell about 350k and then get a good 40m+ in airplay to easily snatch #1.
|
|
|
|
Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 9:52:48 GMT -5
can Carly Rae Jepsen log a 10th week at No. 1 with "Call Me Maybe"? Find out Wednesday (Aug. 15) Are all 11 of your posts really asking this exact same question in different threads? You quoted the wrong person boo boo. But it's funny, cause the answer is "no"! Only 9 out of it's 11 post are. 9/11 :'( |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 9:56:02 GMT -5
I was "answering" noodlerestaurant1 with the quote.
|
|
|
|
Post by noodlerestaurant1 on Aug 14, 2012 9:58:42 GMT -5
Does CMM still have chance to stay at no.1 on Hot 100 for 10th week?
|
|
dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
|
Post by dlostfan on Aug 14, 2012 10:00:41 GMT -5
She'll be #3 I'm pretty sure. fun. and Gotye have a longer chart run and are having very strong staying power. I'm sure Carly will stay on the chart for a long time too, but her airplay is falling faster than the other two songs were at this point. Gotye is locked to be #1. There should not be even a molecule of doubt. The lead from #2 will be HUGE. For #2, it is a close one between Fun. and Carly. Carly will be ahead in total sales and Fun. will be ahead in total airplay. Will be interesting to see. Payphone is locked for #4 and WFL for #5 BTW. |
|
dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
|
Post by dlostfan on Aug 14, 2012 10:02:08 GMT -5
Does CMM still have chance to stay at no.1 on Hot 100 for 10th week? With the rapidly falling airplay, no. It's between Lights and Whistle this week. |
|
|
|
Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Aug 14, 2012 10:06:20 GMT -5
Does CMM still have chance to stay at no.1 on Hot 100 for 10th week?  |
|
dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
|
Post by dlostfan on Aug 14, 2012 10:07:45 GMT -5
Whistle will probably have the most points next week.
If Swift can sell only 120-130k more, she will get #1.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 10:13:50 GMT -5
Retro Top 10's for this week
1 year since Katy turned Pulse into a mess
1 year ago (8/27/11)
1 2 Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.) - Katy Perry (1st week of 2 @ #1)
2 1 Party Rock Anthem - LMFAO ft. Lauren Bennett & GoonRock
3 8 Moves Like Jagger - Maroon 5 ft. Christina Aguilera
4 3 Super Bass - Nicki Minaj
5 5 Lighters - Bad Meets Evil ft. Bruno Mars
6 6 How To Love - Lil' Wayne
7 4 Give Me Everything - Pitbull ft. Ne-Yo, AfroJack & Nayer
8 13 Pumped Up Kicks - Foster The People
9 7 I Wanna Go - Britney Spears
10 11 Good Life - OneRepublic
5 years ago (8/25/07)
1 1 Beautiful Girls - Sean Kingston (3rd week of 4 @ #1)
2 2 Big Girls Don't Cry - Fergie
3 4 The Way I Are - Timbaland ft. Keri Hilson & D.O.E.
4 3 Hey There Delilah - Plain White T's
5 5 Umbrella - Rihanna ft. Jay-Z
6 6 Stronger - Kanye West
7 7 Bartender - T-Pain ft. Akon
8 9 Make Me Better - Fabolous ft. Ne-Yo
9 8 A Bay Bay - Hurricane Chris
10 12 Shawty - Plies ft. T-Pain
10 years ago (8/24/02)
1 1 Dilemma - Nelly & Kelly Rowland (2nd week of 10 @ #1)
2 2 Hot In Herre - Nelly
3 3 Complicated - Avril Lavigne
4 5 Just A Friend 2002 - Mario
5 4 I Need A Girl (Part Two) - P Diddy ft. Ginuwine, Loon, Mario Winans & Tammy Ruggeri
6 11 Gangsta Lovin' - Eve ft. Alicia Keys
7 6 Down 4 U - Irv Gotti pres. The Inc (ft. Ja Rule, Ashanti, Charli Baltim & Vita)
8 8 Just Like A Pill - P!nk
9 12 Happy - Ashanti
10 10 Nothin' - N.O.R.E.
15 years ago (8/23/97)
1 1 I'll Be Missing You - Puff Daddy ft. Faith Evans & 112 (11th and FINAL week @ #1)
2 2 Mo Money Mo Problems - Notorious B.I.G. ft. Puff Daddy & Mase
3 3 Quit Playing Games (With My Heart) - Backstreet Boys
4 4 Semi-Charmed Life - Third Eye Blind
5 6 2 Become 1 - Spice Girls
6 10 How Do I Live - LeAnn Rimes
7 9 Never Make A Promise - Dru Hill
8 7 Not Tonight - Lil' Kim ft. Da Brat, Left Eye, Missy Elliott & Angie Marr
9 5 Bitch - Meredith Brooks
10 8 Do You Know (What It Takes) - Robyn
Hot 100 Airplay from 15 years ago
1 1 Men In Black - Will Smith (3rd week of 4 @ #1)
2 2 Sunny Came Home - Shawn Colvin
3 3 Semi-Charmed Life - Third Eye Blind
4 4 How Bizarre - OMC
|
|
badrobot
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2006
Posts: 3,392
|
Post by badrobot on Aug 14, 2012 10:19:35 GMT -5
The charts are significantly less competitive than they were earlier this spring when M5 and Justin debuted with huge sales but not at #1. (And actually if my formula is right Justin wasn't really as close as people think -- fun had quite a large margin still.) I think Taylor could fairly easily be #1.
If my formula (ratio of 1 : 1.5 : 0.1 for sales/airplay/streaming) is right, Carly had about 412 points last week.
Taylor would only need to sell about 350k and then get a good 40m+ in airplay to easily snatch #1.
|
|
cesarams
2x Platinum Member
I'll get into your dreams.
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,473
|
Post by cesarams on Aug 14, 2012 10:21:44 GMT -5
I'm thinking that with the airplay from this first 2 days, Taylor can enter at the Bubbling Under this week and next week she can debut at #1. I hope so.
|
|
|
|
Post by josh on Aug 14, 2012 10:25:26 GMT -5
If the clear channel deal is today, then it will be over for next week's chart. However the deal will likely get it airplay for next week that it wouldn't have gotten right away, but it will have big 8th/9th day drops from the deal. Also someone (Codex?) mentioned it having 50-60 million AI. I can see it for Mediabase but not BDS.
|
|
|
|
Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Aug 14, 2012 11:07:39 GMT -5
Taylor will need streaming.
|
|
moore746
Gold Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 832
|
Post by moore746 on Aug 14, 2012 11:17:04 GMT -5
I don't understand how Lights has anymore of a chance at #1 than Wide Awake. Someone explain, please?
|
|
Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623
My Charts
Pronouns: He/his/him
|
Post by Au$tin on Aug 14, 2012 11:23:01 GMT -5
I don't understand how Lights has anymore of a chance at #1 than Wide Awake. Someone explain, please? Streaming. "Lights" is slaying in streaming. "Wide Awake" is doing well there too, but "Lights" is #1 in streaming versus "Wide Awake" at #6. The only thing holding "Lights" back is digital sales. "Wide Awake" is being held back from #1 because of streaming and digital sales. |
|
icefire9
2x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,071
|
Post by icefire9 on Aug 14, 2012 11:39:21 GMT -5
Speaking of, Wide Awake is out of the itunes top 10.  |
|
SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,301
|
Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 14, 2012 12:01:53 GMT -5
can Carly Rae Jepsen log a 10th week at No. 1 with "Call Me Maybe"? Find out Wednesday (Aug. 15) Are all 11 of your posts really asking this exact same question in different threads? lol, same thing on ATRL. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2012 13:09:23 GMT -5
I feel like I should reply to this post but then my post count is higher than 11 and I am not on ATRL
|
|
brucelover
Gold Member
Banned
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 685
|
Post by brucelover on Aug 14, 2012 13:19:44 GMT -5
TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 5.950
And this is just from 4 hours last night....y'all better get ready for that 20m A.I. update tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
Post by josh on Aug 14, 2012 13:30:14 GMT -5
Are all 11 of your posts really asking this exact same question in different threads? lol, same thing on ATRL. Yeah he quoted you to respond to the other person. Kinda weird how he did it, but nothing was directed towards you. |
|
|
|
Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 14, 2012 15:10:56 GMT -5
Really nice album releases soon, with hopefully good singles.
bold: already released a (lead) single
Matchbox Twenty - North - September 4
T.I. - Trouble Man - September 4
Will.i.am. - #willpower - September 14
Ne-Yo - R.E.D. - September 18
Nelly Furtado - The Spirit Indestructible - September 18
P!nk - The Truth About Love - September 18
Mike - The Orgin Of Love - September 18
Loreen - Rapture - September 18
Michael Jackson - Bad 25 - September 18
Lupe Fiasco - Food & Liquor II: The Great American Rap Album Pt. 1 - September 25
No Doubt - Push And Shoove - September 25
Mumford & Sons - Babel - September 25
Green Day - UNO - September 25
Brandy - Two Eleven - October 2
Ellie Goulding - Halycon - October 8 (next single released in 1 week)
Taylor Swift - Red - October 22
Calvin Harris - Calvin Harris - October 29
50 Cent - Street King Immortal - November
Green Day - ¡Dos! - November 13
Date TBA (late 2012 or begin 2013)
Alexis Jordan
Anastacia
Avril lavigne
Cee Lo Green - Cee-Lo Green Is... Everybody's Brother
Cher
Christina Aguilera
Demi Lovato
Dr. Dre
Drake
Freddie Mercury and Michael Jackson (Posthumous duet album)
Gnarls Berkley
Guns 'N Roses
Ke$ha
Lady Gaga - ARTPOP
Lil' Kim
Mariah Carey
Miley Cyrus
Missy Elliott
Neon Hitch
|
|
Lozzy
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2010
Posts: 49,237
|
Post by Lozzy on Aug 14, 2012 15:11:34 GMT -5
Calvin Harris - Calvin Harris - October 29 The lead single, "Bounce", has been out since April 2011. The second single, third single and fourth single have also been released. |
|
![Peaches. [Ch, r. is] Avatar](https://31.media.tumblr.com/a97337013f756f19976a4373ebb4bba7/tumblr_inline_myhf9rgoge1rtpcz9.gif)
