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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 16, 2012 10:43:13 GMT -5
Billboard prediction 9/01/2012 until now...
Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart from only this day.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.
I tried the prediction on the last three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.
# / artist / song / points
1. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 136.48
2. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 110.90
3. Flo Rida - Whistle: 110.46
4. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 110.40
5. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 101.20
6. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 88.47
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been: 88.15
8. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That i Used To Know: 80.99
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 75.04
10. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go: 69.38
11. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 68.59
12. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 65.09
13. Usher - Scream: 63.00
14. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 57.54
15. Fun. - Some Nights: 57.49
16. Owl City & Carly rae Jepsen - Good TIme: 51.95
17. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 49.45
18. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back: 47.68
19. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - mercy: 46.93
20. Maroon 5 - One More NIght: 46.31
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 16, 2012 10:53:59 GMT -5
5. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 101.20
6. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 88.47
:shiftyeyes:
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 16, 2012 10:59:47 GMT -5
2. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 110.90
3. Flo Rida - Whistle: 110.46
4. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 110.40
Um...
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 16, 2012 11:10:15 GMT -5
You people try too hard to predict things... Que sera, sera
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2012 13:14:16 GMT -5
If I'm not mistaken nivekwriter1 does a 'rolling' prediction much the same way airplay is always a rolling update. I forget the formula he uses but he updates his prediction each day, so by the time he reaches Wednesday his prediction will have had a few fluctuations.
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 16, 2012 13:24:25 GMT -5
I know what he does, but it seems a little wrong for "Payphone" and "Call Me Maybe" to be in that order and so far apart when one was a #1 contender last week and one definitely was not.  |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 16, 2012 13:30:17 GMT -5
For sure, some of it is that he can't really account for streaming.
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on Aug 16, 2012 14:01:56 GMT -5
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 43.548 (- 0.324)  Oh well, it had a decent run on radio considering this is unlike anything else out there and they've been gone for 10 years, I would not call it a flop. It outperformed by a large margin all the singles from the Killers, Green Day and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Hopefully Single #2 will be a smash. OF MONSTERS AND MEN - Little Talks: 14.262 (+ 1.387) Yass!! :'( This needs to smash hard. |
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 16, 2012 14:19:36 GMT -5
Oh well, it had a decent run on radio considering this is unlike anything else out there and they've been gone for 10 years, I would not call it a flop. It outperformed by a large margin all the singles from the Killers, Green Day and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Hopefully Single #2 will be a smash. It outperformed recent lead singles from Madonna, Mariah Carey and Beyoncé. I think "Settle Down" did very well. |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 16, 2012 14:36:42 GMT -5
I'm here for Little Talks smashing, though it really needs to be added to pop.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Aug 16, 2012 15:34:28 GMT -5
Taylor is going to have one painful 8th-day effect (although it'll actually be on its ninth day).
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Aug 17, 2012 0:08:13 GMT -5
They will do it but in a new site. I don't have all the info about it right now. Where did you read this? At Orkut's. They announced they will create a new site out of Orkut. |
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Lozzy
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 17, 2012 0:28:37 GMT -5
At Orkut's. They announced they will create a new site out of Orkut. "Orkut won't do it anymore" was very misleading. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 17, 2012 6:49:46 GMT -5
Airplay update (8/17/2012)
1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 162.587 (- 0.258)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 161.898 (- 0.923)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 144.024 (- 1.668)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 132.861 (- 1.797)
5. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 118.663 (- 1.665)
6. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 116.936 (- 1.865)
7. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 106.962 (+ 0.070)
8. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 102.057 (- 0.096)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 94.436 (+ 0.380)
10. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 94.373 (+ 0.809)
11. USHER - Scream: 90.020 (- 2.590)
12. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 89.681 (+ 2.083)
13. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 79.805 (+ 2.485)
14. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 68.582 (+ 9.168) [/b][/color]
15. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.420 (+ 0.472)
16. LOVE AND THEFT - Angel Eyes: 62.097 (- 1.288)
17. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 61.524 (- 0.358)
18. BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 60.260 (+ 0.483)
19. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 58.814 (+ 0.518)
20. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 58.803 (+ 0.084)
Others
GLORIANA - (Kissed You) Good Night: 57.932 (- 1.542)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 57.909 (+ 0.776)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 56.240 (+ 0.822)
FUN. - Some Nights: 54.693 (+ 1.677)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 54.473 (+ 0.049)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 51.670 (+ 1.642)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 44.961 (+ 1.193)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 44.098 (+ 0.060)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 42.484 (+ 1.665)
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 42.237 (+ 1.759)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 40.288 (- 0.400)
GROUPLOVE - Tongue Tied: 36.602 (- 0.085)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 34.293 (+ 0.484)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 30.622 (+ 0.119)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 29.187 (+ 0.170)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 26.932 (+ 0.235)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.911 (- 0.142)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.608 (- 0.400)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 9.016 (+ 0.367)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.446 (+ 0.156)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 2.825 (+ 0.090)
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 17, 2012 6:53:35 GMT -5
Other airplay updates: 50 Cent ft. Dr. Dre & Alicia Keys - New Day: 5.477 (+ 2.468)Ne-Yo - Let Me Love You: 17.237 (+ 0.891) Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 29.160 (+ 1.111)It looks like the chart is finally awakening  |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 17, 2012 6:59:16 GMT -5
13. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 79.805 (+ 2.485)
Wohoo! Who would've thought this could challenge the top 10?
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keyboard
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Post by keyboard on Aug 17, 2012 7:25:40 GMT -5
Stronger never gave Dark Side a chance :(
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Aug 17, 2012 7:50:33 GMT -5
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.608 (- 0.400)
:'( The Olympics heat is waning so it's expected, but this song had better get a third wind...
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Aug 17, 2012 8:56:25 GMT -5
At Orkut's. They announced they will create a new site out of Orkut. "Orkut won't do it anymore" was very misleading. Just a shot of drama ;) |
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 17, 2012 9:41:18 GMT -5
Yea, Stronger is killing Dark Side, not Taylor. :(
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Aug 17, 2012 9:54:42 GMT -5
M5 is looking to capture their 3rd Top 10 in a row, 2nd from "OVEREXPOSED" |
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divasummer
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Post by divasummer on Aug 17, 2012 10:02:57 GMT -5
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 43.548 (- 0.324) Oh well, it had a decent run on radio considering this is unlike anything else out there and they've been gone for 10 years, I would not call it a flop. It outperformed by a large margin all the singles from the Killers, Green Day and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Hopefully Single #2 will be a smash. OF MONSTERS AND MEN - Little Talks: 14.262 (+ 1.387) Yass!! :'( This needs to smash hard. I wouldn't say it was a flop but it kind of underperformed due to it's lack of sales. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 17, 2012 10:20:19 GMT -5
"Settle Down" did and didn't outperform Her Madgesty's lead single. If we're looking at Hot 100 peak and peak radio audience, it didn't. It did reach top 20 at pop and Hot AC radio, though, which "Give Me All Your Luvin' " failed to do. I like both tracks, so all good for me. :)
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Post by chocolatethunder on Aug 17, 2012 11:07:37 GMT -5
Settle Down did outperform "Give Me All Your Loving". in the very critical ear test format.
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on Aug 17, 2012 11:22:15 GMT -5
Thanks for the predictions nivekwriter1
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 17, 2012 11:38:31 GMT -5
Thanks for the predictions nivekwriter1 your welcome |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 17, 2012 12:53:20 GMT -5
With 3 more days of updates like that, and Taylor Swift will pass Whistle. If that happens, I think its conceivable that Taylor could stay at #1 for a 2nd week.
It would have to mantain decent radio updates (+2m would do) and sell at least on par with Whistle. I could see it doubling up on Whistle at the beginning of next week, while selling a little less than it by the end.
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Post by josh on Aug 17, 2012 12:58:23 GMT -5
With 3 more days of updates like that, and Taylor Swift will pass Whistle. If that happens, I think its conceivable that Taylor could stay at #1 for a 2nd week. It would have to mantain decent radio updates (+2m would do) and sell at least on par with Whistle. I could see it doubling up on Whistle at the beginning of next week, while selling a little less than it by the end. But it's going to lose... 30 million audience I think? come Wednesday. And Tuesday will be a smaller gain than these are, since it had a +5 million I believe on that day. Then it will slow way down on the gains, probably 1-3 million gained each day. Sales will be way down by then, still probably #1 but not huge amounts over Whistle anymore. Plus who knows about streaming. Right now Whistle has a huge lead there. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 17, 2012 13:03:51 GMT -5
Billboard prediction 9/01/2012 until now...
Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart from only this day.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.
I tried the prediction on the last three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.
# / artist / song / total points this week / extra in- or decrease in points in comparison to yesterday
1. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 278.59
2. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 227.44
3. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 224.32
4. Flo Rida - Whistle: 221.70
5. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 199.61
6. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 190.21
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been: 176.91
8. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That i Used To Know:164.96
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 154.31
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 141.61
11. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go: 141.50
12. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 133.32
13. Usher - Scream: 126.11
14. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 125.28
15. Fun. - Some Nights: 124.82
16. Owl City & Carly rae Jepsen - Good Time: 111.44
17. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 107.11
18. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 106.08
19. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back: 104.12
20. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - mercy: 97.89
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Aug 17, 2012 18:52:53 GMT -5
There is ZERO doubt that Taylor will be at #1 this week, guys.
This is one prediction I don't have any doubts about.
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Oh well, it had a decent run on radio considering this is unlike anything else out there and they've been gone for 10 years, I would not call it a flop. It outperformed by a large margin all the singles from the Killers, Green Day and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Hopefully Single #2 will be a smash.
