Billboard Hot 100 09/01/12

[Lozzy]

Aug 17, 2012 10:20:19 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

"Settle Down" did and didn't outperform Her Madgesty's lead single. If we're looking at Hot 100 peak and peak radio audience, it didn't. It did reach top 20 at pop and Hot AC radio, though, which "Give Me All Your Luvin' " failed to do. I like both tracks, so all good for me. :)

"Settle Down" may not have climbed as high as "Give Me All Your Luvin'", but the difference is that "Settle Down" actually had a speck of longevity to make up for that.

I prefer "Give Me All Your Luvin'".

Aug 17, 2012 18:52:53 GMT -5 badrobot said:

There is ZERO doubt that Taylor will be at #1 this week, guys.

This is one prediction I don't have any doubts about.

Billboard could change the formula.

[Envoirment]

Aug 17, 2012 21:30:17 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Billboard could change the formula.

Perhaps. But also Taylor's 8th day effect will occur during the last day of airplay right? I'm not saying she won't get to #1, because I think it's almost certain, but it wouldn't surprise me if she didn't.

[nivekwriter1]

I'm going on holiday so I can't finish the predictions,
but I'm almost 100% sure that Taylor will be #1.

[Lozzy]

Aug 18, 2012 0:55:38 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

I'm going on holiday

Goodbye!

[fridayteenage]

2010s songs that had their first 2 Digital Songs charting weeks at #1: Born this Way, Love the Way You Lie, We are the World.

Of these, only Born this Way's 1st week atop the digital chart was at #1 overall. Next, Taylor?

[nivekwriter1]

Because nobody uploaded it here the airplay update.
This is the last time I can upload it in 3 weeks,
so someone else has to post it from orkut.

Airplay update (8/18/2012)

1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 162.372 (- 0.215)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 161.116 (- 0.782)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 141.998 (- 2.026)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 130.351 (- 2.510)
5. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 117.334 (- 1.329)
6. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 115.891 (- 1.045)
7. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 106.806 (- 0.156)
8. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 101.857 (- 0.200)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 95.566 (+ 1.130)
10. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 95.279 (+ 0.906)
11. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 91.538 (+ 1.857)
12. USHER - Scream: 87.650 (- 2.370)
13. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 81.917 (+ 2.112)
14. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 77.482 (+ 8.900)[/b][/color]
15. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.316 (- 0.104)
16. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 61.742 (+ 0.218)
17. LOVE AND THEFT - Angel Eyes: 61.073 (- 1.024)
18. BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 60.513 (- 0.107)
19. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 59.083 (- 0.645)
20. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 58.605 (+ 0.696)

Others

KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 58.438 (- 0.316)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 57.021 (+ 0.781)
FUN. - Some Nights: 55.941 (+ 1.248)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 54.661 (+ 0.188)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 53.247 (+ 1.577)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 45.904 (+ 0.943)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 44.256 (+ 1.772)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 44.212 (+ 0.114)
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 43.620 (+ 1.383)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 39.988 (- 0.300)
GROUPLOVE - Tongue Tied: 36.655 (+ 0.053)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 34.893 (+ 0.600)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 30.722 (+ 0.100)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 30.223 (+ 1.063)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 29.589 (+ 0.402)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 26.719 (- 0.213)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.849 (- 0.062)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 17.543 (+ 0.755)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.124 (- 0.484)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 9.241 (+ 0.225)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.473 (+ 0.027)
KELLY ROWLAND - Ice f/Lil Wayne: 3.677 (+ 0.459)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 3.033 (+ 0.208)
SEAN PAUL- How Deep Is Your Love: 0.868
DAVID GUETTA - She Wolf (Falling To Pieces): 0.211

Kworb:
50 CENT - New Day f/Dr. Dre & Alicia Keys - New Day: 5.748 (+ 0.271)

[skizzo]

Can you add Brandy to the updates please

[nivekwriter1]

Aug 18, 2012 8:29:59 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Can you add Brandy to the updates please

BRANDY - Put It Down f/Chris Brown: 11.971 (+ 0.182)

[Lozzy]

Nivek, are all the updates in the "others" section from Orkut, or are some of them from Kworb instead? I really don't think you should mix the two together, as similar as they may be.

[nivekwriter1]

Aug 18, 2012 8:40:00 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Nivek, are all the updates in the "others" section from Orkut, or are some of them from Kworb instead? I really don't think you should mix the two together, as similar as they may be.

Only the song 'New Day' is from Kworb, the others are all from orkut. Next time I won't mix the two together anymore.

[HolidayGuy]

It's possible that Swift's single will have enough airplay to compensate for the inevitable loss that will come when the first day is taken out of the equation. If it sees an average of 5m audience per day on BDS, that would be 35m for the week (it had 40m from the first day-and-a-half for the 8/25 chart; so, not a major loss).

Slizz- "Settle Down" is still bulleted in its fourth week on the Mainstream Top 40 and Adult Top 40 charts, but it has lost its bullet at alternative in its fourth week. But, yes, it should enjoy greater longevity on the charts than Madge's single. It should last longer than five weeks at Mainstream Top 40 and six weeks on the Hot 100. :)

[strikeleo]

I'm having trouble believing Swift doesn't have a Clear Channel deal still working. Yes, I know that it was reported it'd be for one day only, but those gains are massive! I didn't exepect this at all.

[josh]

This is only about pop, but the same thinking applies to country, hot ac, ac. If she gets +600 spins daily each day the first week, split over 150 or so stations, that's only 4 spins per day per station. It's really not that much. It's just a big song being released. Come the 10th+ day updates (the ones a week after the +600 or so updates) we will likely see it slow down to +100 to +300 spin range. The 9th day will obviously see big losses.

[Au$tin]

She will more than likely see a gain of about 4 million on her 8th day and a large loss of around 30 million on her 9th day, but then back to smaller, normal gains.

I heard it for the first time on the radio today! Sounds great!

[matelot]

"settle down" is not dead :)

[SPRΞΞ]

i think Katy still has a shot at #1 on overall airplay on Billboard. Look at Mediabase, the next song gaining spins is at 95M, with Whistle at 91M. That means that Katy has another 60M for others to catch up to which gives her plenty of time to stay steady while Lights possibly crashes harder and falls beneath her. I say she has at least another 3 weeks to do it. Maybe even more than that, considering everything beneath Wide Awake and Lights is falling at a faster rate than those 2.

[c14e]

Hi, usually just read this forum but thanks to everyone for all the great information posted on here!

Just wondering has Cher Lloyd now missed her chance of making it into the top 10 or could it still happen for her with WUB?

[nivekwriter1]

Airplay update (8/19/2012)

1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 162.348 (- 0.024)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 160.492 (- 0.624)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 141.093 (- 0.905)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 127.459 (- 2.892)
5. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 116.079 (- 1.255)
6. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 113.272 (- 2.619)
7. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 107.176 (+ 0.370)
8. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 101.064 (- 0.793)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 97.301 (+ 1.735)
10. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 95.972 (+ 0.693)
11. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 93.159 (+ 1.621)
12. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 87.745 (+ 10.263)
13. USHER - Scream: 84.818 (- 2.832)
14. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 84.085 (+ 2.168)
15. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.509 (+ 0.193)
16. BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 61.187 (+ 0.674)
17. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 61.104 (- 0.638)
18. LOVE AND THEFT - Angel Eyes: 59.776 (- 1.297)
19. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 59.534 (+ 0.929)
20. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 59.400 (+ 0.317)

Others

KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 58.087 (- 0.351)
FUN. - Some Nights: 57.535 (+ 1.594)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 57.411 (+ 0.390)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 55.116 (+ 1.869)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 55.062 (+ 0.401)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 47.157 (+ 1.253)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 46.266 (+ 2.010)
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 45.057 (+ 1.437)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 44.410 (+ 0.198)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 39.675 (- 0.313)
GROUPLOVE - Tongue Tied: 36.483 (- 0.172)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 35.490 (+ 0.597)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 30.594 (- 0.128)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 29.795 (+ 0.206)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 27.007 (+ 0.288)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.724 (- 0.125)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.317 (+ 0.193)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 9.669 (+ 0.428)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.439 (- 0.034)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 3.476 (+ 0.443)

Kworb updates:

THE BAND PERRY - Postcards From Paris: 48.918 (+ 0.411)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 31.561 (+ 1.453)
MIGUEL - Adron: 25.364 (+ 0.949)
NE-YO - Let Me Love You: 18.996 (+ 0.915)
KARMIN - Hello: 5.468 (+ 0.737)

[Lozzy]

02/12/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 025.083 (+ 25.083)
02/13/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 045.662 (+ 20.579)
02/14/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 063.504 (+ 17.842)
02/15/2011: 11. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 074.091 (+ 10.587)
02/16/2011: 07. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 084.167 (+ 10.076)
02/17/2011: 04. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 095.667 (+ 11.500)

08/14/2012: 00. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 005.950 (+ 05.950)
08/15/2012: 00. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 050.114 (+ 44.164)
08/16/2012: 19. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 059.414 (+ 09.300)
08/17/2012: 14. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 068.582 (+ 09.168)
08/18/2012: 14. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 077.482 (+ 08.900)
08/19/2012: 12. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 087.745 (+ 10.263)

[#LisaRinna]

MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 3.476 (- 0.443)

Should be a +0.443 ;)

[cesarams]

^And Everybody Talks should be green.

[stetz]

Does anybody think Sail by AWOLNATION will have the pointage or momentum to reach the top 50 (since it's already recurrent) in the next few weeks? It currently stands at 47 on digital songs and 30 on on-demand songs, and seems to be rising. Frank Ocean's currently 82 on the hot 100 pretty much just off of streaming, where it sits at 12.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2012 7:04:21 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

02/12/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 025.083 (+ 25.083)
02/13/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 045.662 (+ 20.579)
02/14/2011: 00. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 063.504 (+ 17.842)
02/15/2011: 11. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 074.091 (+ 10.587)
02/16/2011: 07. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 084.167 (+ 10.076)
02/17/2011: 04. LADY GAGA - Born This Way: 095.667 (+ 11.500)

08/14/2012: 00. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 005.950 (+ 05.950)
08/15/2012: 00. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 050.114 (+ 44.164)
08/16/2012: 19. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 059.414 (+ 09.300)
08/17/2012: 14. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 068.582 (+ 09.168)
08/18/2012: 14. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 077.482 (+ 08.900)
08/19/2012: 12. TAYLOR SWIFT - Never Ever: 087.745 (+ 10.263)

It's also important to note that Gagas numbers would have been 1.3x as much with the current AI formula.

[trackmaster13]

Aug 19, 2012 10:50:33 GMT -5 stetz said:

Does anybody think Sail by AWOLNATION will have the pointage or momentum to reach the top 50 (since it's already recurrent) in the next few weeks? It currently stands at 47 on digital songs and 30 on on-demand songs, and seems to be rising. Frank Ocean's currently 82 on the hot 100 pretty much just off of streaming, where it sits at 12.

First post on this forum, so hey everyone. I've been following Sail's progress for the past few weeks and am wondering the same thing. Since it only peaked at 82 on its chart run, will it be able to chart at positions 51-81 since it will bypass its old peak, but it won't be top 50.

[Lozzy]

Aug 19, 2012 11:35:17 GMT -5 trackmaster13 said:

Aug 19, 2012 10:50:33 GMT -5 stetz said:

Does anybody think Sail by AWOLNATION will have the pointage or momentum to reach the top 50 (since it's already recurrent) in the next few weeks? It currently stands at 47 on digital songs and 30 on on-demand songs, and seems to be rising. Frank Ocean's currently 82 on the hot 100 pretty much just off of streaming, where it sits at 12.

First post on this forum, so hey everyone. I've been following Sail's progress for the past few weeks and am wondering the same thing. Since it only peaked at 82 on its chart run, will it be able to chart at positions 51-81 since it will bypass its old peak, but it won't be top 50.

I have no idea, but welcome!

[icefire9]

14. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 84.085 (+ 2.168)

Just noticed this is in the top 10 of itunes finally! It looks like this could definitely enter the top 10 on the hot 100 in the next few weeks.

[chocolatethunder]

I hate CMM but im glad to see Good Times is doing so well for Owl and CRJ, its one pure pop track that i actually actually like :o......and Triumphant is starting to move upwards +400k daily AI move is a step up.

[Agent Yoncé]

fun., M5 & Alex Clare are coming

[Franck]

Aug 19, 2012 14:07:34 GMT -5 @chocolatethunder said:

I hate CMM but im glad to see Good Times is doing so well for Owl and CRJ, its one pure pop track that i actually actually like :o......

I'm rooting for this song too. I dpn't hate "Call Me Maybe" though (I think it's an okay song).

[HolidayGuy]

Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quick-Cut-Airplay Info, 8/13/12-8/19/12

1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 163.031 (+ 0.683)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 160.166 (- 0.326)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 140.217 (- 0.876)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 125.208 (- 2.251)
5. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 114.489 (- 1.590)
6. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 111.418 (- 1.854)
7. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 107.738 (+ 0.562)
8. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 100.428 (- 0.636)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 98.382 (+ 1.081)
10. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 97.918 (+ 10.173) ▲
11. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 96.525 (+ 0.553) ▼
12. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 94.316 (+ 1.157) ▼
13. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 86.614 (+ 2.529) ▲
14. USHER - Scream: 81.870 (- 2.948) ▼
15. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.548 (+ 0.039)
16. BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 61.987 (+ 0.800)
17. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 60.839 (- 0.265)
18. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 59.614 (+ 0.214) ▲
19. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 59.171 (- 0.363)
20. FUN. - Some Nights: 59.122 (+ 1.587) ▲

OTHERS
LOVE AND THEFT - Angel Eyes: 58.442 (- 1.334)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 57.773 (+ 0.362)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 57.130 (+ 2.014)
KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 56.876 (- 1.211)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 55.490 (+ 0.428)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 48.131 (+ 0.974)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 47.977 (+ 1.711)
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 46.212 (+ 1.155)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 44.549 (+ 0.139)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 41.731 (+ 0.512)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 39.453 (- 0.222)
GROUPLOVE - Tongue Tied: 36.272 (- 0.211)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 35.795 (+ 0.305)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 30.819 (+ 0.225)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 29.954 (+ 0.159)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 27.099 (+ 0.092)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.596 (- 0.128)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 15.485 (+ 0.168)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 9.851 (+ 0.182)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.472 (+ 0.033)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 3.937 (+ 0.461)