Billboard Hot 100: 9/8/12

[Agent Yoncé]

I didn't realize M5 was outselling Flo Rida.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 10:59:29 GMT -5 cesarams said:

Predictions:

1- We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
2- Whistle
3- Lights
4- Some Nights
5- Call Me Maybe
6- Wide Awake
7- One More Night
8- Payphone
9- As Long As You Love Me
10- Good Time

One More Night should be ahead of CMM. It is in a close fight with Some Nights for #4.

[Deleted]

Aug 29, 2012 11:09:51 GMT -5 dlostfan said:

Aug 29, 2012 10:59:29 GMT -5 cesarams said:

Predictions:

1- We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
2- Whistle
3- Lights
4- Some Nights
5- Call Me Maybe
6- Wide Awake
7- One More Night
8- Payphone
9- As Long As You Love Me
10- Good Time

One More Night should be ahead of CMM. It is in a close fight with Some Nights for #4.

Considering Some Nights is #1 on Spotify and One More Night is #35, it's a very clear advantage for Some Nights.

[cesarams]

^And at radio, CMM and WA are still with a pretty good advantage that can keep them ahead of OMN. But next week OMN should pass both of them.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 11:15:49 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Aug 29, 2012 11:09:51 GMT -5 dlostfan said:

One More Night should be ahead of CMM. It is in a close fight with Some Nights for #4.

Considering Some Nights is #1 on Spotify and One More Night is #35, it's a very clear advantage for Some Nights.

Yes.... but the 36k lead OMN has in sales can counter upto 300k gap in streaming.

IMO Some Nights should win, but it is not locked.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 11:17:39 GMT -5 cesarams said:

^And at radio, CMM and WA are still with a pretty good advantage that can keep them ahead of OMN. But next week OMN should pass both of them.

I am pretty sure OMN is passing both CMM and WA and entering Top-5.

CMM and WA are fighting for #6.

[Deleted]

Aug 29, 2012 11:19:54 GMT -5 dlostfan said:

Aug 29, 2012 11:15:49 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Considering Some Nights is #1 on Spotify and One More Night is #35, it's a very clear advantage for Some Nights.

Yes.... but the 36k lead OMN has in sales can counter upto 300k gap in streaming.

IMO Some Nights should win, but it is not locked.

The sales gap is only 26k.

307*1 + 1.5*087 + .1*100 ~450 chart points for T-Swizzledizzle
180*1 + 1.5*100 + .1*750 ~405 chart points for Flo-Rizzledizzle
080*1 + 1.5*140 + .1*.700 ~360 chart points for Ellie-Fizzledizzle
170*1 + 1.5*065 + .1*.700 ~335 chart points for fun-Shizzledizzle
120*1 + 1.5*095 + .1*.600 ~320 chart points for Carly-Dizzledizzle
080*1 + 1.5*130 + .1*.450 ~320 chart points for Katy-Pizzledizzle
195*1 + 1.5*060 + .1*.300 ~315 chart points for M5-Nizzledizzle

I actually don't feel Maroon 5 will have 300k streaming points (I think it'll be around 200k), but I overestimated for you.

[popstop]

By the time Taylor's sales slow down, her airplay will be higher. Taylor may be #1 for awhile. Flo might be lucky he got in while he could.

[Deleted]

^I very much doubt Flo will be going back to #1.

[badrobot]

Flo definitely "lucked out" timing-wise -- considering how tense competition had been in the #2-5 slots for weeks, had Carly stalled a bit sooner we could have seen Maroon 5, Katy, and Ellie all hitting #1 as well.

I think it's more likely that fun, Owl City/Carly, or the new Maroon 5 would be the next #1 after Taylor than Flo regaining the top spot.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 11:32:12 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Aug 29, 2012 11:19:54 GMT -5 dlostfan said:

Yes.... but the 36k lead OMN has in sales can counter upto 300k gap in streaming.

IMO Some Nights should win, but it is not locked.

The sales gap is only 26k.

307*1 + 1.5*087 + .1*100 ~450 chart points for T-Swizzledizzle
180*1 + 1.5*100 + .1*750 ~405 chart points for Flo-Rizzledizzle
080*1 + 1.5*140 + .1*.700 ~360 chart points for Ellie-Fizzledizzle
170*1 + 1.5*065 + .1*.700 ~335 chart points for fun-Shizzledizzle
120*1 + 1.5*095 + .1*.600 ~320 chart points for Carly-Dizzledizzle
080*1 + 1.5*130 + .1*.450 ~320 chart points for Katy-Pizzledizzle
195*1 + 1.5*060 + .1*.300 ~315 chart points for M5-Nizzledizzle

I actually don't feel Maroon 5 will have 300k streaming points (I think it'll be around 200k), but I overestimated for you.

M5 got 345k streaming last week.... why would it go down? It should get around 400k streams.

I also think you are overestimating the streaming weightage by a tiny bit.

Plus the difference in Airplay will be smaller than what you used. Billboard uses BDS, not Mediabase. Carly, Katy and M5 should get around 70M, 107M and 48M respectively.

We shall see soon enough...... :)

[Deleted]

I did alter it for BDS/Mediabase differences, although I eyeballed my estimates. The top of the chart is generally a lot more effected by the difference than the rest of the airplay chart. In addition Mediabase's large calibration upscale was downsized some by a smaller calibration downscale (thus I don't dock as much as I used to).

The current weighting figures used accurately reflect the chart positions on the Hot 100 since the methodology change.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 11:56:32 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I did alter it for BDS/Mediabase differences, although I eyeballed my estimates. The top of the chart is generally a lot more effected by the difference than the rest of the airplay chart. In addition Mediabase's large calibration upscale was downsized some by a smaller calibration downscale (thus I don't dock as much as I used to).

The current weighting figures used accurately reflect the chart positions on the Hot 100 since the methodology change.

There are a couple of instances where it fails. If the multiplier for streaming is dropped to 0.08-0.09, it satisfies all.

[skizzo]

Retro 2002:

1 1 8 DILEMA Nelly & Kelly Rowland
2 2 18 HOT IN HERRE Nelly
3 3 14 COMPLICATED Avril Lavigne
4 4 15 JUST A FRIEND Mario
5 5 13 I NEED A GIRL PT 2. P. Diddy & Ginuwine
6 6 8 GANGSTA LOVIN' Eve & Alicia Keys
7 13 11 LONG TIME GONE Dixie Chicks
7 8 11 DOWN 4 U Irv Gotti Presents The Inc
9 14 5 CLEANIN' OUT MY CLOSET Eminem
10 9 14 HAPPY Ashanti
11 10 15 NOTHIN' N.O.R.E.
12 8 9 JUST LIKE A PILL Pink
13 11 14 HEAVEN DJ Sammy & Yanou
14 15 14 NO SUCH THING John Mayer
15 12 16 HERO Chad Kroeger & Josey Scott
16 19 13 MOVE BITCH Ludacris
17 16 27 A THOUSAND MILES Vanessa Carlton
18 20 13 ONE LAST BREATH Creed
19 17 25 THE MIDDLE Jimmy Eat World
20 23 6 GOTTA GET THRU THIS Daniel Bedingfield
21 18 19 I'M GONNA BE ALRIGHT Jennifer Lopez
22 24 13 THE GOOD STUFF Kenny Chesney
23 26 13 WHY DON'T WE FALL IN LOVE Amerie
24 21 17 WITHOUT ME Eminem
25 30 10 LOVE AT FIRST SIGHT Kylie Minogue
26 22 11 STILL FLY Big Tymers
27 25 21 SOAK UP THE SUN Sheryl Crow
28 29 8 TWO WRONGS Wyclef Jean
29 31 7 GOOD TIMES Styles
30 32 9 UNBROKEN Tim McGraw
31 38 12 I MISS MY FRIEND Darryl Worley
32 28 20 OH BOY Cam'ron
33 33 5 FEEL IT BOY Beenie Man
34 27 20 FOOLISH Ashanti
35 40 11 IF I COULD GO Angie Martinez
36 34 12 BY THE WAY Red Hot Chili Peppers
37 44 9 TEN ROUNDS WITH JOSE CUERVO Tracy Byrd
38 35 43 WHEREVER YOU WILL GO The Calling
39 37 24 HALFCRAZY Musiq
40 41 37 BLURRY Puddle Of Mudd
41 49 14 THE IMPOSSIBLE Joe Nichols
42 45 7 I KEEP LOOKING Sara Evans
43 39 13 COURTESY OF THE RED WHITE & BLUE Toby Keith
44 52 12 WHERE ARE YOU GOING Dave Matthews Band
45 36 15 GRINDIN' The Clipse
46 43 28 ALL YOU WANTED Michelle Branch
47 54 5 STINGY Ginuwine
48 53 6 BABY Ashanti
49 50 35 WASTING MY TIME Default
50 NE 1 HEY MA Cam'ron
51 60 4 BEAUTIFUL MESS Diamond Rio
52 42 20 ADDICTIVE Truth Hurts
53 47 20 HELLA GOOD No Doubt
54 58 9 RUNNING AWAY Hoobastank
55 51 17 DAYS GO BY Dirty Vegas
56 67 2 I CARE 4 U Aaliyah
57 70 3 TRADE IT ALL Fabolous
58 61 3 AERIALS System Of A Down
59 69 2 ORDINARY DAY Vanessa Carlton
60 66 3 SOMEBODY LIKE YOU Ruff Endz
61 63 8 A LITTLE LESS CONVERSATION Elvis vs JXL
62 68 3 OUT OF MY HEART BBMak
63 65 4 SHE WAS Mark Chesnutt
64 NE 1 UNDERNEATH IT ALL No Doubt
65 75 2 SOMEWHERE OUT THERE Our Lady Peace
66 76 2 WORK IN PROGRESS Alan Jackson
67 57 5 THE RISING Bruce Springsteen
68 56 10 TONIGHT I WANNA BE YOUR MAN Andy Griggs
69 NE 1 GOODBYE TO YOU Michelle Branch
70 NE 1 CRY Faith Hill
71 55 14 CALL ME Tweet
72 71 8 IN DA WIND Trick Daddy
73 48 16 THE ONE Gary Allan
74 79 7 PO' FOLKS Nappy Roots
75 80 5 I DO 3LW
76 78 21 AMERICAN CHILD Phil Vassar
77 59 17 SOMEONE TO LOVE YOU Ruff Endz
79 72 4 ALL EYEZ ON ME Monica
80 73 5 FLAKE Jack Johnson
81 93 2 LUV U BETTER LL Cool J
82 74 9 WAY OF LIFE Lil Wayne
83 62 3 BURNIN' UP Faith Evans & Missy Elliott
84 77 15 WALKING AWAY Craig David
85 84 7 SHE LOVES ME NOT Papa Roach
86 82 18 I'M GONNA MISS HER Brad Paisley
87 81 5 SWEETNESS Jimmy Eat World
87 64 15 MY NECK MY BACK Khia
88 90 4 DON'T MESS WITH ME MAN Nivea
89 87 7 TAINTED Slum Village
90 85 15 DRIFT & DIE Puddle Of Mudd
91 88 18 FULL MOON Brandy
92 83 19 YOU KNOW THAT I LOVE YOU Donell Jones
93 89 7 HATE TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO Hives
94 94 9 I'VE GOT YOU Marc Anthony
95 NE 1 OH YEAH Big Tymers
96 96 2 WHATCHULOOKINAT Whitney Houston
97 97 3 BLUE JEANS Yasmeen
98 91 11 FOR ALL TIME Soluna
99 86 17 NOT A DAY GOES BY Lonestar
100 98 18 GIMMIE THE LIGHT Sean Paul

[cesarams]

Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" logs a second week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, while Owl City and Carly Rae Jepsen's collaboration "Good Time" reaches the top 10.

Swift stays at the summit, with digital sales for "Never" dropping significantly, a contrast to the song's strong airplay gains. "Never" spends a second week at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 307,000 downloads sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan, a 51% slide from its debut on the list last week with sales of 623,000, an opening-week sum that marked the best for a song by a woman in SoundScan history. In its first two weeks of digital availability, "Never" has sold 930,000 downloads.

Taylor Swift Scores First Hot 100 No. 1

Such a drop-off in second-week digital sales is typical for titles that make monstrous first-week splashes. Even with its decline, "Never" becomes one of just five songs this year to sell more than 300,000 downloads in multiple weeks. Fun.'s "We Are Young" (featuring Janelle Monae) tallied seven such weeks; Gotye's "Somebody That I Used to Know" (featuring Kimbra), six; and, LMFAO's "Sexy and I Know It" and Maroon 5's "Payphone" (featuring Wiz Khalifa), two each.

Radio airplay, meanwhile, continues to swell for "Never," which wins the Hot 100's top Airplay Gainer ribbon, lifting 14-13 in its third week on the Radio Songs chart (67 million all-format audience impressions, up 30%, according to Nielsen BDS). The song is the greatest gainer on Pop Songs (18-16, up 27%) and Adult Pop Songs (21-18, up 32%), although it drops 13-19 on Country Songs (down 30%). Clear Channel Media and Entertainment-owned stations, a majority of them country-formatted, aided the song's radio debut with intense airplay on Aug. 6-7; following the specialty spins, plays on those country stations largely regressed, spurring the song's slip on Country Songs.

"Never," the lead single from Swift's fourth studio album, "Red," due Oct. 22 on Big Machine Records, has not yet been made available to streaming services that also contribute to the Hot 100's data pool. Thus, it does not yet rank on the On-Demand Songs streaming chart.

Swift Tops Social 50 Chart | Taylor Swift's Career Sales

Although sales for "Never" more than halve, the song still claims the Hot 100's top spot over Flo Rida's former one-week No. 1 "Whistle." ("Never" decreases by 41% on overall Hot 100 points, while "Whistle" slides by only 2%). "Whistle" holds at No. 2, climbing 8-5 on Radio Songs (81 million, up 10%). It falls 2-3 on Digital Songs (180,000, down 10%), although it passes 2 million in sales to-date. On On-Demand Songs, it rises 3-2 (771,000 on-demand streams, down less than 1%, according to BDS).

Ellie Goulding's "Lights" (3-3) makes it a static top three on the Hot 100, while Maroon 5's "One More Night" charges 9-4 with the chart's top Digital Gainer award for a third consecutive week. The song jumps 4-2 on Digital Songs (195,000, up 26%), 25-16 on Radio Songs (50 million, up 25%) and 28-19 on On-Demand Songs (415,000, up 20%).

Fun.'s "Some Nights" jumps 6-5 on the Hot 100 with gains on Radio Songs (19-14; 52 million, up 14%) and On-Demand Songs (5-4; 739,000, up 6%). On Digital Songs, it drops 3-4 ( 169,000, down 7%).

Carly Rae Jepsen's former nine-week Hot 100 No. 1 "Call Me Maybe" drops 4-6; Katy Perry's No. 2-peaking "Wide Awake" falls 5-7; and, Maroon 5's fellow No. 2-peaking "Payphone" descends 7-8.

Jepsen concurrently adds her second Hot 100 top 10 in as many chart appearances, as "Good Time," with Owl City, climbs 13-9 with top Streaming Gainer honors. The duet bounds 16-10 on On-Demand Songs (509,000, up 19%), while pushing 8-5 on Digital Songs (144,000, up 13%) and 17-15 on Radio Songs (51 million, up 10%). Its latest sales frame pushes it past 1 million downloads sold to-date.

Carly Rae Jepsen's 'Kiss' Album Due Sept. 18

Jepsen and Owl City (aka, Adam Young) each notch their second Hot 100 top 10s. With "Good Time" following "Maybe," Jepsen is the first woman to send her first two entries as a lead act on the chart to the top 10 since Ke$ha arrived with the nine-week No. 1 "TiK ToK" and the No. 7 hit "Blah Blah Blah" (featuring 3OH!3) in 2009-10. Including featured billings, Jepsen joins Sia, whose first two Hot 100 appearances this year, both in guest roles, have reached the top 10. Flo Rida's "Wild Ones" rose to No. 5 in May and David Guetta's "Titanium" peaked at No. 7 in July; Sia sings the chorus in each track.

Owl City returns to the Hot 100's top 10 after debut single "Fireflies" spent two weeks at No. 1 in November 2009.

Justin Bieber rounds out the Hot 100's top bracket, as "As Long as You Love Me" (featuring Big Sean) retreats 8-10. Although it declines by 9% in sales to 131,000 (holding at No. 6 on Digital Songs), the song again bullets at No. 9 on On-Demand Songs (595,000, up 7%) and lifts 18-17 on Radio Songs (50 million, up 8%).

Check Billboard.com tomorrow (Aug. 30), when all rankings, including the Hot 100 and On-Demand Songs in their entirety and Digital Songs and Radio Songs, will be refreshed, as they are each Thursday.

Read more at www.billboard.com/news#P9klSTKT494EsCiF.99

[josh]

Go Good Time!!

[Rodze]

Thank you, Billboard!

Sales is 0.6 x Airplay.


Now to discover all the streaming stuff. Can't try it now since I don't have all the other weeks with me.

[Agent Yoncé]

'OMN' - #4 & 'Some Nights' - #5

I wonder if M5 will have a 2nd shot of going #1. & hopefully this time they'll actually hit the spot

[badrobot]

Aug 29, 2012 12:35:29 GMT -5 Rodze said:

Thank you, Billboard!

Sales is 0.6 x Airplay.


Now to discover all the streaming stuff. Can't try it now since I don't have all the other weeks with me.

How did you get the 0.6?

Taylor's points last week and this week (if you use my 1/1.5/0.1 formula, assume zero streaming):

701 -> 407.5 (-41.8%)

BB said Taylor fell 41%, which is almost an exact match -- and could be attributed to possibly a tiny bit of non-on-demand (passive) streaming.

This is the first week I see a major hiccup though with my formula elsewhere -- which shows fun should've been ahead of Maroon 5.

The only problem is if you lower streaming to be of less value to make it "work" this week, it makes past weeks fail.

I'm inclined to think passive streaming must be making the difference... but we can only guess for the moment.

[Deleted]

(623,000x + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000x + 67,000,000y)
(623,000 + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000 + 67,000,000y)
367570 + 30,680,000y = 307,000 + 67,000,000y
60570 = 36,320,000y
y = 0.0016676762114537 when x = 1

Thus, 623 chart points from 623,000 sales would mean around 87 chart points from 52,000,000AI.

Meaning the methodology I was using before of "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.5" did not account for Airplay enough. Instead it is "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.67".

623x1 + 52x1.67 ~ 710
307x1 + 67x1.67 ~ 420

(420/710)*100% = 59%, which means a 41% decrease in chart points.

Which, as Rodze said, means Sales is worth about 0.6 x Airplay.

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 13:03:18 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

(623,000x + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000x + 67,000,000y)
(623,000 + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000 + 67,000,000y)
367570 + 30,680,000y = 307,000 + 67,000,000y
60570 = 36,320,000y
y = 0.0016676762114537 when x = 1

Thus, 623 chart points from 623,000 sales would mean around 87 chart points from 52,000,000AI.

Meaning the methodology I was using before of "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.5" did not account for Airplay enough. Instead it is "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.67".

623x1 + 52x1.67 ~ 710
307x1 + 67x1.67 ~ 420

(420/710)*100% = 59%, which means a 41% decrease in chart points.

Which, as Rodze said, means Sales is worth about 0.6 x Airplay.

The values we get from Billboard are only rounded figures, The sales and Airplay vary in +-0.5 unceratinity range.

And the 41% drop in points could very well mean 41.49%.

Taking all of that into account, the multiplier for Airplay that you are using can vary anywhere from 1.5x to 1.8x, so it's not really a very precise way to tell anything.

[badrobot]

yeah... i think we can't tell with much precision.

i liked my formula because it not only fit the vast majority of the data but it was very simple.

considering they'd always had fairly simple formulas (i mean, it was basically just 1k sales = 1m airplay for years, and before that it was .5k sales = 1m airplay for years), it struck me as odd that they would suddenly switch to something with non-simple divisors/multipliers.

but... we can only guess. at least with this we know the ratio for airplay is somewhere in the 1.5-1.8 : 1 range dlostfan mentions.

[Deleted]

although it drops 13-19 on Country Songs (down 30%).

What? Was the 8th day effect so big that she couldn't gain it back in 6 days, or has it actually peaked?

[dlostfan]

Aug 29, 2012 13:18:46 GMT -5 badrobot said:

yeah... i think we can't tell with much precision.

i liked my formula because it not only fit the vast majority of the data but it was very simple.

considering they'd always had fairly simple formulas (i mean, it was basically just 1k sales = 1m airplay for years, and before that it was .5k sales = 1m airplay for years), it struck me as odd that they would suddenly switch to something with non-simple divisors/multipliers.

but... we can only guess. at least with this we know the ratio for airplay is somewhere in the 1.5-1.8 : 1 range dlostfan mentions.

Until we get something more concrete, I will be sticking with 1.5x since all the past evidence suggests it to be so.

[fridayteenage]

Taylor's song becomes just the second solo song to log 300k downloads twice outside of Xmas sales. It's also the 2010s' 2nd song to be #1 in its first 2 weeks of digital release. Both after Born this Way.

Oh, and Call Me Maybe is a week away from tying We Belong Together for most female T10 weeks since 2000.

[Taylor.]

Aug 29, 2012 13:25:30 GMT -5 Codex said:

although it drops 13-19 on Country Songs (down 30%).

What? Was the 8th day effect so big that she couldn't gain it back in 6 days, or has it actually peaked?

She lost 8.5M in AI on the 8th day and hasn't gained it back yet, no. She's still been increasing in spins every day (although her audience dropped slightly today).

[renfield75]

Aug 29, 2012 14:16:44 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Oh, and Call Me Maybe is a week away from tying We Belong Together for most T10 weeks since 2000.

That's not right, "Apologize" spent more weeks in the top ten (25) than "We Belong Together."

Unless you meant for a solo female artist?

[Deleted]

And Party Rock Anthem had 29 weeks in the Top 10.

[icefire9]

It looks like Some Nights is the next Lights, with One More Night playing the part of Whistle.

[spooky21]

Aug 29, 2012 13:03:18 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

(623,000x + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000x + 67,000,000y)
(623,000 + 52,000,000y)*.59 = (307,000 + 67,000,000y)
367570 + 30,680,000y = 307,000 + 67,000,000y
60570 = 36,320,000y
y = 0.0016676762114537 when x = 1

Thus, 623 chart points from 623,000 sales would mean around 87 chart points from 52,000,000AI.

Meaning the methodology I was using before of "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.5" did not account for Airplay enough. Instead it is "Multiply Sales by 1, Multiple Airplay by 1.67".

623x1 + 52x1.67 ~ 710
307x1 + 67x1.67 ~ 420

(420/710)*100% = 59%, which means a 41% decrease in chart points.

Which, as Rodze said, means Sales is worth about 0.6 x Airplay.