overboard
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Post by overboard on May 27, 2011 21:40:32 GMT -5
The average sophomore slump first week sales for Idol contestants who are not Daughtry, Carrie, Kelly is about 1/3rd of what they previously sold. Archie has the worst slump with about 13%.
Cook sold 280k his first week on his fist album. A third of that is about 93k. 13% is 36k.
Any guesses as to what Cook will do this time around? I dont see him getting anywhere near 93k and he might end up in the 30s. If that happens, I dont see RCA putting anything into a follow-up single.
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on May 27, 2011 21:41:57 GMT -5
With sales nowadays, I'd estimate in the 30s for him -- partly because this isn't doing well and partly because everyone's affected by sales slumps.
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idolman88
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Post by idolman88 on May 27, 2011 21:43:20 GMT -5
The average sophomore slump first week sales for Idol contestants who are not Daughtry, Carrie, Kelly is about 1/3rd of what they previously sold. Archie has the worst slump with about 13%. Cook sold 280k his first week on his fist album. A third of that is about 93k. 13% is 36k. Any guesses as to what Cook will do this time around? I dont see him getting anywhere near 93k and he might end up in the 30s. If that happens, I dont see RCA putting anything into a follow-up single. I'm guessing around 50,000 if Cook can't get any decent airplay before the release date.
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on May 28, 2011 2:20:15 GMT -5
He needs airplay. Even if his album sells OK, it will be the end of him without it because he won't reach beyond his existing fanbase which is going to dwindle as time passes.
Obviously, TLG has not been received well and the label should change it ASAP before sinking any more effort into it. The problem is that it's not what they usually do, and Lambert was very lucky that his first single was replaced quickly. May be his luck was a clear "NO, the song isn't fit for radio", from PDs rather than "OK we'll play the song" but keeping it in low rotation forever.
I think that one of Cook's problem is that the label doesn't let him be himself. They push him in a more generic direction than he would like. And they pick terrible singles for him so he ends up with his coronation song being his more successful one to date after being the guy who broke records in digital downloads after idol.
The video has been added by VH1 now, it's going to help a bit, but it is still not in the countdown voting list...
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Streets Ahead
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Post by Streets Ahead on May 29, 2011 3:11:52 GMT -5
The only real massive hit Cook's had is TOML. That said, he has a hardcore fan base. This single could bomb as bad as humanly possible and he will still sell a ton of albums. The guy is an album seller. Not a single seller.
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Post by out of reach on May 29, 2011 8:43:11 GMT -5
The only real massive hit Cook's had is TOML. That said, he has a hardcore fan base. This single could bomb as bad as humanly possible and he will still sell a ton of albums. The guy is an album seller. Not a single seller. I think that remains to be seen. He was coming off a high on his win and produced a platinum hit in Light on. He also sold his album right before album sales really started tanking. This new album apparently will not enjoy much buzz or big single. I don't think he's going to sell much unless he gets a big hit with a second single.
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Hook
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Post by Hook on May 29, 2011 9:53:08 GMT -5
The only real massive hit Cook's had is TOML. That said, he has a hardcore fan base. This single could bomb as bad as humanly possible and he will still sell a ton of albums. The guy is an album seller. Not a single seller. I think that remains to be seen. He was coming off a high on his win and produced a platinum hit in Light on. He also sold his album right before album sales really started tanking. This new album apparently will not enjoy much buzz or big single. I don't think he's going to sell much unless he gets a big hit with a second single. I agree, I don't think he'll manage to sell much, even in the first week. He'll be a distant third in debuts that week behind Beyonce and Selena Gomez. His tour did do really well, I'm just wondering how many of those fans are left. Some of them might not even know he has a new album release without radio play.
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Streets Ahead
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Post by Streets Ahead on May 29, 2011 20:43:32 GMT -5
You can't forget that rock acts aren't big single sellers. It's much different than it is for pop. A lot of people think it's ridiculous to shell out 1.29 for a single when they'll eventually buy the album. I'm telling you, Cook has a hardcore fan base. Sometimes they're silent and sometimes not. I think people are gonna be surprised by his sales.
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tornik
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Post by tornik on May 30, 2011 12:12:26 GMT -5
No matter how you twist, the start of this era is quite disappointed. Djs do not jump on playing this song quickly.
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overboard
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Post by overboard on May 30, 2011 16:12:29 GMT -5
You can't forget that rock acts aren't big single sellers. It's much different than it is for pop. A lot of people think it's ridiculous to shell out 1.29 for a single when they'll eventually buy the album. I'm telling you, Cook has a hardcore fan base. Sometimes they're silent and sometimes not. I think people are gonna be surprised by his sales. That could very well be and honestly, it would make a lot more sense then "all of Cook's fans disappeared from the face of the earth".
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Hook
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Post by Hook on May 30, 2011 21:02:37 GMT -5
You can't forget that rock acts aren't big single sellers. It's much different than it is for pop. A lot of people think it's ridiculous to shell out 1.29 for a single when they'll eventually buy the album. I'm telling you, Cook has a hardcore fan base. Sometimes they're silent and sometimes not. I think people are gonna be surprised by his sales. I really hope you are right. Of course, I also hope that the rest of the album is better than this single. The live performances have made me think that this could be a solid album at least and the label just made a poor single choice.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on May 31, 2011 17:13:17 GMT -5
I really just can't believe that David and his team thought this song was unique or strong enough to be a lead single. I think we overuse this word around here but generic really does sum up the song and that video. I'm also pretty disappointed in Matt Serletic as well if he produced this song. He's a veteran music guy and should have known better.
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Post by out of reach on May 31, 2011 17:23:59 GMT -5
I really just can't believe that David and his team thought this song was unique or strong enough to be a lead single. I think we overuse this word around here but generic really does sum up the song and that video. I'm also pretty disappointed in Matt Serletic as well if he produced this song. He's a veteran music guy and should have known better. Honestly, i'm not sure it's that cut and dry. I think they thought the song is catchy and sounds like something HAC would play especially since there is practically no male rock presence and if it succeeds then it could crossover to CHR. While I agree with you that this is underwhelming but they couldn't know that CHR was going to take over HAC as well. 2 more adds this week, I guess we will wait to see if people buy the album despite poor single performance.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on May 31, 2011 19:37:14 GMT -5
Honestly, i'm not sure it's that cut and dry. I think they thought the song is catchy and sounds like something HAC would play especially since there is practically no male rock presence and if it succeeds then it could crossover to CHR. I understand what you are saying but honestly the first time that I heard this song it didn't stand out. I think HAC will still imprace a male rock song it just needs to be good to stand out from all the pop stuff the format is playing. I think Daughtry may have a new album out in the next 12 months so let's see how that does. Matchbox Twenty also will release something in the next year. If HAC doesn't latch on to it's newest male star or imbrace an artist (Rob Thomas with or without MB20) that it has imbraced for the past 12 years or so then I really think we can start saying that the format has moved on from the sound that distinguished it from pop radio in the 1990-2000s. I hope there's still playlist room here for these guys. I think the GGDs are done on the format (meaning the possibility of still hitting #1) but then again I don't think they have released strong material in 7-8 years either. If Daughtry releases a strong song and it still underperforms, that will be a barometer. IMO, David Cook's major problem is his material and honestly his lack of star power (that "it" factor). People saw the "it" in him on AI I guess but I haven't watched the show in a few years so I don't know what he really did on the show to WOW people. I haven't seen it post-AI though and that's a shame because I do like his voice and he seems to be a great guy. Unfortunately, that's not all that it takes to make it big these days. You have to stand out from the crowd somehow. That's not just David's problem but most HotAC artists especially the men (Kris Allen, Matt Nathanson, Howie Day, Daniel Powter, etc, etc.).
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Post by out of reach on May 31, 2011 20:30:35 GMT -5
I agree with you that the song is meh. I feel like David lost his mojo as well, saw him perform the single on Idol and he was forgettable. Maybe it was the single or he's rusty, i'm not sure. I hope they put out another single quick.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on May 31, 2011 20:50:42 GMT -5
David's video for "Last Goodbye" was listed to be added to the VH1 playlist today in low rotation (ON) but the video was not added to the VH1 Top20 Music Video countdown list for voting. Don't know what is going on there.
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idolman88
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Post by idolman88 on May 31, 2011 21:26:07 GMT -5
I really just can't believe that David and his team thought this song was unique or strong enough to be a lead single. I think we overuse this word around here but generic really does sum up the song and that video. I'm also pretty disappointed in Matt Serletic as well if he produced this song. He's a veteran music guy and should have known better. I've heard rumors from somewhat credible sources that David fought against The Last Goodbye as a single, but his label really wanted the song released. Not sure if that's people just trying to protect David or if that's true. Either way, I have a really good feeling about the rest of the songs on this album.
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overboard
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Post by overboard on May 31, 2011 22:07:59 GMT -5
I understand what you are saying but honestly the first time that I heard this song it didn't stand out. I think HAC will still imprace a male rock song it just needs to be good to stand out from all the pop stuff the format is playing. I think Daughtry may have a new album out in the next 12 months so let's see how that does. Matchbox Twenty also will release something in the next year. If HAC doesn't latch on to it's newest male star or imbrace an artist (Rob Thomas with or without MB20) that it has imbraced for the past 12 years or so then I really think we can start saying that the format has moved on from the sound that distinguished it from pop radio in the 1990-2000s. I hope there's still playlist room here for these guys. I think the GGDs are done on the format (meaning the possibility of still hitting #1) but then again I don't think they have released strong material in 7-8 years either. If Daughtry releases a strong song and it still underperforms, that will be a barometer. IMO, David Cook's major problem is his material and honestly his lack of star power (that "it" factor). People saw the "it" in him on AI I guess but I haven't watched the show in a few years so I don't know what he really did on the show to WOW people. I haven't seen it post-AI though and that's a shame because I do like his voice and he seems to be a great guy. Unfortunately, that's not all that it takes to make it big these days. You have to stand out from the crowd somehow. That's not just David's problem but most HotAC artists especially the men (Kris Allen, Matt Nathanson, Howie Day, Daniel Powter, etc, etc.). HAC radio doesnt care about "star power". Do you ever hear anyone in the media talking about Lifehouse or Train? No and it hasnt impacted their impact on HAC. HAC isn't loosing its standard group of artists. They continue to populate the charts no matter what they put out. The difference between HAC and Pop is that HAC does not have a set formula like Pop does. There are no magic songwriters or producers that are going to guarantee you a hit.
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on May 31, 2011 22:19:36 GMT -5
HAC radio doesnt care about "star power". Do you ever hear anyone in the media talking about Lifehouse or Train? No and it hasnt impacted their impact on HAC. HAC isn't loosing its standard group of artists. They continue to populate the charts no matter what they put out. The difference between HAC and Pop is that HAC does not have a set formula like Pop does. There are no magic songwriters or producers that are going to guarantee you a hit. This.
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overboard
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Post by overboard on May 31, 2011 22:35:07 GMT -5
In other news, it seems like RCA hasnt stopped any of the promo for the album. Here are the events that he has planned that I know about...
The Today Show – 6/28 Live! With Regis & Kelly – 6/29 Lopez Tonight – 6/30
He is also doing some WPLJ concert in June.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jun 1, 2011 9:00:05 GMT -5
David's video for The Last Goodbye aired on this morning’s VH1 Jumpstart at 8:30 am EST.
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Hook
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Post by Hook on Jun 1, 2011 10:41:52 GMT -5
Honestly, i'm not sure it's that cut and dry. I think they thought the song is catchy and sounds like something HAC would play especially since there is practically no male rock presence and if it succeeds then it could crossover to CHR. I disagree about there being no male rock presence on HAC anymore. If you look at the chart, there is a large number of Pop/Rock males getting airplay, some leaning each way. Just look at the Top 20. You've got bands like Parachute, 30 Seconds to Mars, and My Chemical Romance all getting solid HAC airplay, with The Script in the Top 5 and OneRepublic at #7. I think the problem is simple. The song is just weak. And Cook is not established enough yet for radio to play his singles despite being weak. I wouldn't be surprised if that was in fact true that the label wanted this out, not him. There were two songs on his first album that he did not write. Guess which ones the label chose as singles?
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Post by out of reach on Jun 1, 2011 11:15:44 GMT -5
Honestly, i'm not sure it's that cut and dry. I think they thought the song is catchy and sounds like something HAC would play especially since there is practically no male rock presence and if it succeeds then it could crossover to CHR. I disagree about there being no male rock presence on HAC anymore. If you look at the chart, there is a large number of Pop/Rock males getting airplay, some leaning each way. Just look at the Top 20. You've got bands like Parachute, 30 Seconds to Mars, and My Chemical Romance all getting solid HAC airplay, with The Script in the Top 5 and OneRepublic at #7. I think the problem is simple. The song is just weak. And Cook is not established enough yet for radio to play his singles despite being weak. I wouldn't be surprised if that was in fact true that the label wanted this out, not him. There were two songs on his first album that he did not write. Guess which ones the label chose as singles? Idk I consider One Republic and the Script very popish but I guess David's single is very pop too. But I do agree that the single itself is weak. I hope the promo he's doing will help his sales. David Archuleta launched his album without a hit and that didn't go too well. However I don't recall him doing a lot of promo.
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hazuki
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Post by hazuki on Jun 2, 2011 1:53:50 GMT -5
Right Here, Without You have been a better strong lead single for the album then The Last Goodbye. RCA really makes some dumb decisions on single choices.
I say move on to another single, preferably this song or Paper Heart.
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Post by Feelin'.$$$hady on Jun 2, 2011 11:00:54 GMT -5
Idk I consider One Republic and the Script very popish but I guess David's single is very pop too. But I do agree that the single itself is weak. David's single sounds much more dated to me than OR/TS music. Tedder really didn't do him any favours. He's capable of much better. Isn't it ironic that 2 years ago The Script were opening for him and now they are in the position of headlining 2-4k theaters and Cook will be the one looking for an opening spot on a similar tour? I hope the promo he's doing will help his sales. David Archuleta launched his album without a hit and that didn't go too well. However I don't recall him doing a lot of promo. I think they go everywhere where they're invited. It's probably very difficult at this point to get him booked on Letterman or GMA summer concert series. It's Scotty/Lauren/Pia's time to get all the glitzy big promo gigs. I'm sure they're doing everything they can to get Cook good promo gigs, but at this point the best investment is radio promo. If they manage to get him 2 or 3 radio hits, the TV promo gigs will come organically after that.
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Post by out of reach on Jun 2, 2011 11:11:54 GMT -5
One thing to note is that Tedder mentioned that David had a major role in writing and composing this. But I do agree that Tedder is very hit or miss.
If that comes to pass, that will indeed be scary.
Yeah, it sucks but it's all about marketing dollars and timing.
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Hook
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Post by Hook on Jun 2, 2011 13:37:14 GMT -5
Isn't it ironic that 2 years ago The Script were opening for him and now they are in the position of headlining 2-4k theaters and Cook will be the one looking for an opening spot on a similar tour? Ha, I didn't even think of it that way, but that's so true. The only reason I saw Cook live two years ago was because I wanted to see The Script opening (they pulled out at the last minute, but Cook was still good). I do wonder if he can still draw a live crowd like he did back in November 09. I saw him at a 5000k seat casino and he almost sold it out. It's just hard to say right now whether TLG's struggles are signaling a bigger problem for him.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Jun 2, 2011 17:40:25 GMT -5
There was a really short clip of a new song that had a Genesis sound to me. I don't know the name of that song but I liked the clip. Don't know about the whole song. About anything would have been better than this song though.
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hazuki
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Post by hazuki on Jun 2, 2011 21:08:42 GMT -5
There was a really short clip of a new song that had a Genesis sound to me. I don't know the name of that song but I liked the clip. Don't know about the whole song. About anything would have been better than this song though. Do you remember the lyrics?
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 3, 2011 6:55:17 GMT -5
Some small positive movement today 46 43 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 337 305 32 0.878 +7 Spins -1 Bullet +0.001 AI
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