Billboard Hot 100: 9/15/12

[HolidayGuy]

Last Five Threads:
9/8/12, 9/1/12, 8/25/12, 8/18/12, 8/11/12

Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quick-Cut-Airplay Info, 8/23/12-8/29/12

1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 154.691 (- 1.212)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 148.337 (- 2.504)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 124.741 (- 1.968)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 113.343 (- 2.320)
5. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 111.949 (+ 1.279) ▲
6. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 111.771 (+ 0.457) ▼
7. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 110.819 (+ 2.231)
8. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 107.758 (+ 0.119)
9. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 104.752 (+ 1.672) ▲
10. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 104.734 (- 0.163) ▼
11. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 97.077 (+ 1.459) ▲
12. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 95.201 (- 1.664) ▼
13. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 94.390 (- 1.638) ▼
14. FUN. - Some Nights: 70.502 (+ 1.223)
15. JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 68.061 (+ 1.118) ▲
16. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 67.895 (+ 0.618) ▼
17. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 66.707 (+ 2.088) ▲
18. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.285 (- 0.720) ▼
19. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 62.605 (+ 0.623)
20. LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 62.316 (+ 0.366)

OTHERS
BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 60.158 (- 0.722)
USHER - Scream: 58.323 (- 1.582)
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 59.032 (+ 1.446)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 56.099 (+ 1.281)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 55.341 (- 0.335)
HUNTER HAYES - Wanted: 51.634 (+ 1.046)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 45.226 (+ 0.988)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 45.034 (- 1.170)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 44.132 (+ 0.552)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 42.216 (- 0.824)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 34.620 (+ 0.161)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 28.767 (+ 0.175)
TRAIN - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 27.108 (+ 0.261)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 20.617 (+ 0.278)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.656 (- 0.125)
KARMIN - Hello: 15.675 (+ 0.814)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 10.662 (+ 0.190)
MUSE - Madness: 9.289 (+ 0.236)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.542 (- 0.003)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 6.601 (+ 1.705)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 5.611 (+ 0.120)
ONEREPUBLIC - Feel Again: 4.310 (+ 0.820)

[chartfreak]

Sucks that Karmin did not enter the Hot 100 last week. All this airplay...damn streaming songs.

[HolidayGuy]

^"Hello" is not top 75 on either airplay or digital charts for 9/8- but it made a nice 22-3 jump on Bubbling Under, so it's moving in the right direction. :)

[slw84]

Pound the alarm should be #21 by next week.
It will stall in position for a few weeks and then shoot up close to top 10 when 11-17 fall.

[dlostfan]

Preliminary Hot 100 predictions for this week:

1. We Are Never....... - 250 / 75 / 0
2. Whistle - 160 / 90 / 750
3. One More Night - 205 / 60 / 500
4. Some Nights - 165 / 58 / 750
5. Lights - 75 / 110 / 750
6-7 Everybody Talks - 110 / 83 / 450
6-7 Good Time - 140 / 55 / 550
8-10 Call Me Maybe - 110 / 62 / 700
8-10 Wide Awake - 70 / 103 / 500
8-10 As Long as.. - 120 / 56 / 650
11. Payphone - 60 / 83 / 650
12. Blow Me (One Last Kiss) - 75 / 85 / 300

If the sales gap between 'We Are....' and 'Whistle' is less than 80k, then 'Whistle' might be back at #1.

[HolidayGuy]

Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quiuck-Cut-Airplay Info, 8/24/12-8/30/12

1. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 154.517 (- 0.174)
2. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 146.152 (- 2.185)
3. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 123.029 (- 1.712)
4. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 113.010 (+ 1.061) ▲
5. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 112.620 (+ 1.801) ▲
6. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 111.737 (- 0.034)
7. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 110.624 (- 2.719) ▼
8. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 107.829 (+ 0.071)
9. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 106.627 (+ 1.875)
10. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 103.909 (- 0.825)
11. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 98.066 (+ 0.989)
12. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 94.402 (- 0.799)
13. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 93.153 (- 1.237)
14. FUN. - Some Nights: 71.331 (+ 0.829)
15. JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 70.330 (+ 2.269)
16. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 68.979 (+ 2.272) ▲
17. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 68.356 (+ 0.461) ▼
18. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 64.278 (- 0.007)
19. 2 CHAINZ - No Lie f/Drake: 62.909 (+ 0.304)
20. LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 62.357 (+ 0.041)

OTHERS
ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 60.779 (+ 1.747)
BLAKE SHELTON - Over: 59.208 (- 0.950)
USHER - Scream: 57.732 (- 0.591)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 57.642 (+ 1.543)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 54.521 (- 0.820)
HUNTER HAYES - Wanted: 52.794 (+ 1.160)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 46.516 (+ 1.482)
CHRIS BROWN - Don't Wake Me Up: 46.479 (+ 1.253)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 45.430 (+ 1.298)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 41.778 (- 0.438)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 34.971 (+ 0.351)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 28.791 (+ 0.024)
TRAIN - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 27.524 (+ 0.416)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 21.108 (+ 0.491)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 18.450 (- 0.206)
KARMIN - Hello: 16.063 (+ 0.388)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 10.711 (+ 0.049)
MUSE - Madness: 9.424 (+ 0.135)
KILLERS - Runaways: 8.572 (+ 0.030)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 7.639 (+ 1.038)
MARIAH CAREY - Triumphant (Get 'Em) f/R. Ross: 5.821 (+ 0.210)
ONEREPUBLIC - Feel Again: 4.944 (+ 0.634)

[icefire9]

Taylor slowing down.

[HolidayGuy]

^With that much airplay out of the gate, it was bound top happen.

[skizzo]

Ewww at Whistle.

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

If "Dark Side" gets another positive update 2morrow, can we add it back to the list?

[Agent Yoncé]

When will Mariah's song take off?

[skizzo]

Never.

[slw84]

Aug 31, 2012 7:41:38 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Taylor slowing down.

It wil stabilize until her video and promo for the new record.
She's good.

[nivekwriter1]

Billboard prediction 9/15/2012 so far...

Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart from only this day.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.
I tried the prediction on three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.

# / artist / song / total points this week / extra in- or decrease in points in comparison to yesterday (from tomorrow)

1. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 163.47
2. Flo Rida - Whistle: 132.89
3. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 120.61
4. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 119.64
5. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 118.10
6. Fun. - Some Nights: 111.16
7. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 110.26 Biggest Gainer
8. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 103.11
9. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 101.47
10. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 96.67
11. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 95.17
12. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 94.24 Big drop
13. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 89.27 An even bigger drop
14. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 86.79
15. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 85.11
16. Rihanna - Where Have You Been: 84.03
17. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go: 75.40
18. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back: 74.03
19. Alex Clare - Too Close: 74.03
20. Little Big Town - Pontoon: 70.31 High rise

Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:

21. Jason Mraz - I Won't Give Up: 66.98
22. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 62.93
29. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 51.44
34. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 44.19
45. One Republic - Feel Again: 34.87

Bottom 50:

#51- #60: Lupe Fiasco & Guy Sebastian - Battle Scars: 22.14
#61 - #70: Muse - Madness: 14.83 High rise
#71 - #80: Karmin - Hello: 11.10
#81 - #90: Enrique Iglesias ft. S. Adams - Finally Found You: 5.64

[Lozzy]

4. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 113.010 (+ 1.061) ▲

Go P!nk! "Raise Your Glass" and "Perfect" only made #4 and #3 respectively on Radio Songs, so it's nice that this one's already so high.

[popstop]

^ Has Pink ever been higher than #3?

[icefire9]

Aug 31, 2012 10:02:53 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Never.

Never ever ever. Like ever.

[Deleted]

Aug 31, 2012 12:18:19 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Aug 31, 2012 10:02:53 GMT -5 skizzo said:

Never.

Never ever ever. Like ever.

Getting back together?

[matelot]

even with so what or lady marmalade ?

[chartfreak]

I don't think its possible for Enrique to debut yet.

[Lozzy]

Aug 31, 2012 11:50:42 GMT -5 popstop said:

^ Has Pink ever been higher than #3?

Yes, with "Lady Marmalade", which made #1. I'm pretty sure that's the only one.

[Verisimilitude]

"Gangnam Style" has sold 58,000 downloads in total. Wonder how long it'll take to become the smash of the Fall. ;)

[trackmaster13]

Don't forget about "I Won't Give Up" which has just snuck back into the top-10 on iTunes.

[SPRΞΞ]

that Jason Mraz song is a grower. I like it just as much as I'm Yours.

[jughead]

How does Jason Mraz do that? This is looking like it could pull off an "I'm Yours" type of chart run. Is this song even selling his albums though?

[kingofpain]

It's radio's fault. They're the ones who chose NOT to put this into rotation. They sat on it like they did with I'm Yours and slowly added it. The sales were always there, it was radio support that was late to the game. In his case, it has helped both times because it has given the song longevity. In most cases where radio airplay finally picks up late in the game, the sales have already peaked, thereby the Hot 100 peaks are always underwhelming. I always felt this single had multi-format appeal, hell when it first came out I thought it had potential to be a pop/country cross-over!

[HolidayGuy]

It's tough for an act like P!nk to hit No. 1 on Hot 100 Airplay/Radio Songs, when the bulk of play comes from mainstream top 40. Adult Top 40 would be next in terms of her core formats, but the audience from that isn't as high as some other formats. She's scored seven No. 1 hits at the pop format.

[Lozzy]

Sept 1, 2012 7:23:56 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

It's tough for an act like P!nk to hit No. 1 on Hot 100 Airplay/Radio Songs, when the bulk of play comes from mainstream top 40. Adult Top 40 would be next in terms of her core formats, but the audience from that isn't as high as some other formats. She's scored seven No. 1 hits at the pop format.

That's what I don't like about Radio Songs. It's just wrong that "Call Me Maybe" only made #2.

---

ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 60.550 (+ 0.865)

Top 20 tomorrow, I hope!

[HolidayGuy]

The total for "Triumphant" yesterday was 5.611- so how could today's be 3.587?

[Az Paynter]

Kworb's site only accounts for the top 50 I think; Mariah's not currently top 50 on Rhythmic so that's a whole chunk of audience that can't be accounted for, hence the big difference.