Lozzy
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2010
Posts: 49,237 
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Post by Lozzy on Sept 19, 2012 9:00:28 GMT -5
What was You Belong With Me's AI peak? 122 million, I believe. |
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Post by when the pawn... on Sept 19, 2012 9:08:29 GMT -5
Congrats to P!nk on an airplay number 1! I am curious, though, as to how this song is number 1 in airplay and yet sales are so tepid. I am not trying to stir up controversy - I actually like Pink - but the song has sold just over 1 million and isn't even in the top 10 of Itunes. How can that be? Perhaps we'll see big album sales. Seems to be a thing with radio lately. "Where Have You Been", Demi PayoLovato and now Pink. Combined with the "deals" for new songs and the fact radio has more power on the Hot 100 than before, we end up with this horrible chart as of late, more manipulated by labels and less influenced by the audience. Luckily, Taylor Swift, Maroon 5, Justin Bieber and fun. (and Psy) - all iTunes hits - are about to pounce at radio. |
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jughead
Platinum Member
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Posts: 1,024
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Post by jughead on Sept 19, 2012 9:11:22 GMT -5
What was You Belong With Me's AI peak? 122 million, I believe. The new single looks like it could top that. |
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Lozzy
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2010
Posts: 49,237
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Post by Lozzy on Sept 19, 2012 9:13:32 GMT -5
The new single looks like it could top that. 122 million in 2009 ≈ 150 million now. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Sept 19, 2012 9:35:41 GMT -5
Billboard prediction 9/29/2012
FINAL PREDICTION
Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.
I tried the prediction on three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.
# / artist / song / total points this week / how much extra or less points did todays update had than yesterday
1. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 1141.65 (- 3.27)
2. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 1018.88 (+ 1.02)
3. Flo Rida - Whistle: 900.27 (- 1.15)
4. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 899.79 (- 2.69)
5. Fun. - Some Nights: 867.40 (+ 0.56)
6. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 804.19 (- 2.68)
7. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 798.23 (- 0.88)
8. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 792.86 (- 0.90)
9. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 736.15 (- 2.38)
10. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 717.63 (- 1.54)
11. Alex Clare - Too Close: 713.11 (- 0.65)
12. PSY - Gangnam Style: 704.18 (+ 1.34)
13. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 645.13 (- 2.38)
14. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 627.49 (- 2.50)
15. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 596.66 (- 2.95)
16. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 581.05 (- 3.01)
17. Kayne West Jay-Z & Big Sean - Clique: 571.80 (- 2.94)
18. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 544.88 (- 0.90)
19. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 544.67 (- 2.40)
20. Hunter Hayes - Wanted: 520.35 (- 0.38)
Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:
22. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 489.36 (+ 0.56)
25. Carrie Underwood - Blown Away: 421.44 (+ 0.05)
29. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 401.52 (- 0.60)
32. Ne-Yo - Let Me Love You: 356.91 (+ 1.70)
42. David Guetta ft. Chris Brown & Lil Wayne I Can Only Imagine: 267.77 (+ 0.84)
Bottom 50:
53. Karmin - Hello: 221.88 (+ 0.88)
54. Alicia Keys - Girl On Fire: 220.10 (+ 1.99)
63. Christina Aguilera - Your Body: 178.70 (+ 9.79)
67. Enrique Iglesias ft. Sammy Adams - Finally Found You: 152.59(+ 0.41)
76. Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin - Don't You Worry Child: 118.46 (+ 4.90)
98. Usher - Numb: 63.99 (+ 0.61)
Bubbling Under:
P!nk - Try: 44.26 (+ 30.80)
Highlights:
- Here Taylor is #1, but because we can't track streaming, so it's unknown if she's really ahead of Maroon 5 this week.
- After free-falling, Whistle is rising very fast again and is moving back towards it's position 2 weeks ago.
- PSY is rising fast.
- Your Body now also is going like a rocket.
- P!n'k's new song also is getting massive points!
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HolidayGuy
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Joined: December 2003
Posts: 33,925
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Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 19, 2012 9:37:00 GMT -5
Billboard.com::
Over on the Digital Songs chart, Taylor Swift again leads the tally with "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," selling 226,000 downloads. But, rising fast up the list is "Clique" by Kanye West (featuring Jay-Z and Big Sean). The tune vaults 16-2 with 209,000 (up 182%). The cut is the latest single release from the GOOD Music "Cruel Summer" compilation, which should debut near the top of the Billboard 200 next week.
Steady at No. 3 is Maroon 5's "One More Night" (192,000; down 2%) while Psy's "Gangnam Style" flies 25-4 with 188,000 (up 210%). The song profits from Psy's appearances during the tracking week on "The Ellen DeGeneres Show," NBC's "Today" and "Saturday Night Live."
fun.'s "Some Night" falls a slot to No. 5 (153,000; down 4%), Alex Clare's "Too Close" holds at No. 6 (131,000; up 3%) and P!nk's "Blow Me (One Last Kiss)" slips 7-8, but with a gain in sales (117,000; up 3%).
Taylor Swift's charity single "Ronan" slides 2-7 (116,000; down 45%), Justin Bieber's "As Long As You Love Me" (featuring Big Sean) is down two to No. 9 (112,000; down 2%) and Flo Rida's "Whistle" descends five spots to No. 10 (110,000; down 27%).
Digital track sales this past week totaled 22.88 million downloads, down 2% compared with last week (23.25 million) and up 9% stacked next to the comparable week of 2011 (21.01 million). Year-to-date track sales are at 962.43 million, up 6% compared with the same total at this point last year (910.60 million).
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Post by strikeleo on Sept 19, 2012 9:40:21 GMT -5
My bet is on Maroon 5 making it to number #1 this week.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Sept 19, 2012 9:42:51 GMT -5
My bet is on Maroon 5 making it to number #1 this week. The prediction says Taylor but because we can't track streaming I'm almost sure that Maroon 5 will be #1. |
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Lozzy
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2010
Posts: 49,237
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Post by Lozzy on Sept 19, 2012 9:44:57 GMT -5
I expect "One More Night" to be #1.
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Agent Yoncé
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Posts: 24,872
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Sept 19, 2012 9:54:53 GMT -5
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2012 9:57:36 GMT -5
^I feel Maroon 5 has the #1 this week unless Taylor was put on streaming without us knowing.  So since I never heard anything about Taylor suddenly being on streaming; Maroon 5 will be #1. |
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hitseeker.
Diamond Member
The Energizer Bunny 
Joined: April 2007
Posts: 17,126
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Post by hitseeker. on Sept 19, 2012 10:01:01 GMT -5
Please please please 'One More Night' be #1 :'(
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2012 10:02:36 GMT -5
Estimates for Gangnam Style? I'm thinking around #12, then #5 next week.
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Spidey
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Joined: July 2008
Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Sept 19, 2012 10:26:00 GMT -5
Looks like "One More Night" will take the top spot this week.
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dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 19, 2012 10:49:00 GMT -5
Yeah... we got it.... M5 for #1! |
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fridayteenage
5x Platinum Member
Shake it Off
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Posts: 5,493
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Post by fridayteenage on Sept 19, 2012 11:03:52 GMT -5
Yay another week on top of the digital chart for Taylor! I had already kinda assumed that M5 would be on top what with The Voice returning, the relative evenness of sales+airplay, and the zero streaming points for Taylor.
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dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Sept 19, 2012 11:05:02 GMT -5
1. One More Night: 192/ 82/ 675
2. We Are Never.....: 226/ 81/ 0
3. Some Nights:153/ 68/ 750
4. Whistle: 110/ 93 / 700
5 Blow Me: 117/ 98 / 400
6 As Long as...: 112/ 76/ 650
7. Lights: 55/ 98/ 750
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Sept 19, 2012 11:31:22 GMT -5
so strange Big Machine isn't released We Are Never... to streaming. Anyone know what their reasoning is?
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Spidey
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Joined: July 2008
Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Sept 19, 2012 11:39:40 GMT -5
so strange Big Machine isn't released We Are Never... to streaming. Anyone know what their reasoning is? They probably want to maximize the digital sales of the song. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2012 11:42:07 GMT -5
so strange Big Machine isn't released We Are Never... to streaming. Anyone know what their reasoning is? They probably want to maximize the digital sales of the song. How nice they want the extra money for themselves as opposed to the extra weeks at #1 for their star artist.   |
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jebsib
Platinum Member
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Posts: 1,927
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Post by jebsib on Sept 19, 2012 11:45:12 GMT -5
Were you AROUND in the 90's?
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popstop
6x Platinum Member
Pulse's Summer Intern
Advancing the Mountain Time Zone for all mankind
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Post by popstop on Sept 19, 2012 11:57:45 GMT -5
So true. A complete 180 from the 90s where singels sales were withheld to promote the album sales. Airplay ruled the charts. Now airplay is being airplay is being withheld to promote singles sales.
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Sept 19, 2012 12:06:17 GMT -5
They probably want to maximize the digital sales of the song. How nice they want the extra money for themselves as opposed to the extra weeks at #1 for their star artist. right right. that makes sense. i'd do the same thing if I owned Big Machine |
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Enigma.
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Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,179
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 19, 2012 12:06:52 GMT -5
Indeed. Imagine the RIOTS if Taylor Swift's song didn't chart at all (a la Don't Speak)
And btw Adele's 21 wasn't released for streaming until this spring I believe. One reason why is sold bucketloads.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Sept 19, 2012 12:07:07 GMT -5
Estimates for Gangnam Style? I'm thinking around #12, then #5 next week. I'm thinking top 10 because of it's massive streaming. It probably has more passive streaming than any song in history. I think billboard tracks streaming. So I'm thinking #9/#10 this week. Country hasnt' made a big splash on streaming and that's why the record company doesn't see a need for it for Taylor. I would argue though for this particular song it could be a useful promo tool since it's not that country. |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Sept 19, 2012 12:13:29 GMT -5
Has there ever been any evidence that on-demand streaming availability reduces sales?
Anytime I see record labels withholding product from certain channels I have to roll my eyes and think "there you go again, finding another way to destroy your own industry in a misguided attempt at short-term gain."
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Sept 19, 2012 12:21:50 GMT -5
Has there ever been any evidence that on-demand streaming availability reduces sales? Anytime I see record labels withholding product from certain channels I have to roll my eyes and think "there you go again, finding another way to destroy your own industry in a misguided attempt at short-term gain." No there isn't. They are just cutting off a potential revenue stream and more marketing. That could be a consequence of the clear channel deal. |
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Enigma.
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Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,179
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 19, 2012 12:21:54 GMT -5
Was there evidence that singles sales reduced album sales in the 90s? I don't remember
It's more of guidance I believe. And if 50 people actually BUY the song, it makes more money than 5000 people streaming it.
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jebsib
Platinum Member
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Posts: 1,927
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Post by jebsib on Sept 19, 2012 12:44:57 GMT -5
Isn't there usually a Billboard article earlier than this if there's a new #1 (and particularly one of note?)
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jebsib
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Posts: 1,927
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Post by jebsib on Sept 19, 2012 12:47:43 GMT -5
Bad future scenario: Streaming becomes far more mainstream, accounts for a very large percentage of the Hot 100 formula, and labels then 'pick & choose' which titles get streaming, thus - once again- messing up the 'equity' of the charts (a la 1994 - 2005). Brrrrrrrrrr.....
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