Billboard Hot 100: 10/6/12

[Lozzy]

Links: 9/29/12, 9/22/12, 9/15/12, 9/8/12, 9/1/12

---

9/20 airplay updates:

1. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 137.881 (+ 1.644)
2. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 130.092 (− 1.793)
3. FLO RIDA - Whistle: 124.085 (− 0.909)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting…: 118.587 (+ 1.462)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 118.287 (− 0.993)
6. NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 113.744 (− 0.910)
7. MAROON 5 - One More Night: 112.000 (+ 2.399)
8. JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 109.959 (+ 1.412)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 100.342 (− 0.820)
10. FUN. - Some Nights: 96.656 (+ 2.117)
11. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 94.129 (+ 0.909)
12. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 90.680 (− 0.213)
13. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 88.869 (− 1.833)
14. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 86.285 (− 1.766)
15. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 82.559 (− 2.177)
16. NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 82.411 (+ 1.023)
17. ALEX CLARE - Too Close: 80.253 (+ 0.629)
18. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 76.928 (− 1.002)
19. CHRIS BROWN - Don’t Wake Me Up: 71.198 (+ 2.417)
20. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T…: 65.787 (− 0.558)

HUNTER HAYES - Wanted: 62.403 (+ 0.058)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 59.404 (+ 0.310)
MIGUEL - Adorn: 55.215 (+ 1.105)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 49.671 (+ 0.956)
NE-YO - Let Me Love You: 48.466 (+ 1.076)
JASON MRAZ - I Won’t Give Up: 46.941 (− 0.986)
TRAIN - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 43.761 (+ 0.615)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 42.910 (+ 0.758)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 34.076 (+ 0.803)
KARMIN - Hello: 30.904 (+ 0.075)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS - Home: 30.490 (+ 0.666)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She’s So Mean: 29.985 (− 0.158)
PSY - Gangnam Style: 24.442 (+ 2.095)
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 23.187 (+ 0.720)
ONEREPUBLIC - Feel Again: 20.326 (+ 0.681)
KANYE WEST - Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 19.910 (+ 1.325)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Your Body: 19.377 (+ 2.326)
USHER - Numb: 17.132 (+ 1.281)
ALICIA KEYS - Girl On Fire: 15.328 (+ 0.440)
OLLY MURS - Heart Skips A Beat: 14.179 (− 0.250)
MUMFORD & SONS - I Will Wait: 12.753 (− 0.006)
MUSE - Madness: 12.220 (+ 0.199)

Source

[Caviar]

Go X!

[nivekwriter1]

Billboard prediction 10/6/2012 so far...

Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.

# / artist / song / total points this week / how much extra or less points did todays update had than yesterday

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 149.48 (+ 4.03)
2. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 148.76 (- 6.47)
3. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 133.75 (+ 2.55)
4. Flo Rida - Whistle: 129.96 (- 3.04)
5. Fun. - Some Nights: 125.10 (+ 0.71)
6. PSY - Gangnam Style: 117.73 (+ 1.33)
7. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 109.68 (+ 0.89)
8. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 108.35 (- 2.89)
9. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 107.44 (- 2.02)
10. Alex Clare - Too Close: 101.95 (- 0.35)
11. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 100.97 (- 2.41)
12. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 100.87 (- 0.54)
13. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 86.73 (- 0.68)
14. Hunter Hayes - Wanted: 81.51 (+ 2.65)
15. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 79.78 (- 1.62)
16. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 78.15 (- 0.10)
17. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 77.63 (- 0.19)
18. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 76.68 (+ 0.02)
19. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 76.14 (- 2.18)
20. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 74.75 (+ 0.28)

Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:

23. Carrie Underwood - Blown Away: 63.10 (- 1.67)
24. Christina Aguilera - Your Body: 60.30 (+ 1.58)
26. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 59.96 (+ 3.28)
35. P!nk - Try: 42.18 (+ 5.00)
36. David Guetta ft. Chris Brown & Lil Wayne I Can Only Imagine: 40.24 (+ 0.15)

Bottom 50:

51. Karmin - Hello: 34.25 (+ 0.71)
57. Alicia Keys - Girl On Fire: 27.84 (- 0.10)
58. Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin - Don't You Worry Child: 27.38 (- 3.06)
63. Enrique Iglesias ft. Sammy Adams - Finally Found You: 25.41(+ 0.33)
70. Muse - Madness: 55.27 (+ 1.02)
84. Usher - Numb: 13.13 (+ 0.80)

Highlights:
- After free-falling, Whistle is rising very fast again and is moving back towards it's position 2 weeks ago.
- Your Body, Try now are going very fast. Also Usher's Numb is getting points.

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2012 9:51:37 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

I tried the prediction on three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.

Can you delete this line already? You've been doing it for more than three weeks and below I've bolded only the songs that were placed wrong on your 'final prediction' from last week.

1. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 1141.65 (- 3.27)
2. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 1018.88 (+ 1.02)
3. Flo Rida - Whistle: 900.27 (- 1.15)
4. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 899.79 (- 2.69)
5. Fun. - Some Nights: 867.40 (+ 0.56)
6. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 804.19 (- 2.68)
7. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 798.23 (- 0.88)
8. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 792.86 (- 0.90)
9. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 736.15 (- 2.38)
10. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 717.63 (- 1.54)
11. Alex Clare - Too Close: 713.11 (- 0.65)
12. PSY - Gangnam Style: 704.18 (+ 1.34)
13. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 645.13 (- 2.38)
14. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 627.49 (- 2.50)
15. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 596.66 (- 2.95)
16. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 581.05 (- 3.01)
17. Kayne West Jay-Z & Big Sean - Clique: 571.80 (- 2.94)
18. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 544.88 (- 0.90)
19. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 544.67 (- 2.40)
20. Hunter Hayes - Wanted: 520.35 (- 0.38)

[dlostfan]

GS will be 65M behind on Airplay after this week as well on BDS. I have no idea how fast its streaming is growing..... but it should still be well behind.

So GS needs at least 110-120k more sales. But going by Kworb's site, it looks to sell 90-100k more.

Predicts:

1. OMN
2. GS
3. SN
4-5 WARNEGBT
4-5 Blow Me
6. Whistle

[renfield75]

Sept 20, 2012 9:59:05 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Sept 20, 2012 9:51:37 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

I tried the prediction on three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.

Can you delete this line already? You've been doing it for more than three weeks and below I've bolded only the songs that were placed wrong on your 'final prediction' from last week.

Ha ha ha wow.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 20, 2012 9:51:37 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Billboard prediction 10/6/2012 so far...

Here's a prediction of the Billboard chart.
It's made with the iTunes data and airplay data.
I tried the prediction on three weeks and only had 2 small mistakes in the top 10 in all the 3 weeks.

# / artist / song / total points this week / how much extra or less points did todays update had than yesterday

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 149.48 (+ 4.03)
2. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 492.37 (- 6.47)
3. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 133.75 (+ 2.55)
4. Flo Rida - Whistle: 129.96 (- 3.04)
5. Fun. - Some Nights: 125.10 (+ 0.71)
6. PSY - Gangnam Style: 117.73 (+ 1.33)
7. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 109.68 (+ 0.89)
8. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks: 108.35 (- 2.89)
9. Ellie Goulding - Lights: 107.44 (- 2.02)
10. Alex Clare - Too Close: 101.95 (- 0.35)
11. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time: 100.97 (- 2.41)
12. Katy Perry - Wide Awake: 100.87 (- 0.54)
13. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break: 86.73 (- 0.68)
14. Hunter Hayes - Wanted: 81.51 (+ 2.65)
15. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe: 79.78 (- 1.62)
16. Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm: 78.15 (- 0.10)
17. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know: 77.63 (- 0.19)
18. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone: 76.68 (+ 0.02)
19. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium: 76.14 (- 2.18)
20. Chris Brown - Don't Wake Me Up: 74.75 (+ 0.28)

Debuts, High rises and popular songs outside top 20:

23. Carrie Underwood - Blown Away: 63.10 (- 1.67)
24. Christina Aguilera - Your Body: 60.30 (+ 1.58)
26. Train - 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 59.96 (+ 3.28)
35. P!nk - Try: 42.18 (+ 5.00)
36. David Guetta ft. Chris Brown & Lil Wayne I Can Only Imagine: 40.24 (+ 0.15)

Bottom 50:

51. Karmin - Hello: 34.25 (+ 0.71)
57. Alicia Keys - Girl On Fire: 27.84 (- 0.10)
58. Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin - Don't You Worry Child: 27.38 (- 3.06)
63. Enrique Iglesias ft. Sammy Adams - Finally Found You: 25.41(+ 0.33)
70. Muse - Madness: 55.27 (+ 1.02)
84. Usher - Numb: 13.13 (+ 0.80)

Highlights:
- After free-falling, Whistle is rising very fast again and is moving back towards it's position 2 weeks ago.
- Your Body, Try now are going very fast. Also Usher's Numb is getting points.

the numbers look wrong.

[chartfreak]

Well, he's giving most an idea where a song will fall. I don't think anyone expect him to be 100% accurate.

[ga68153]

I hope PSY hits the top 5 this week and then #1. :)

[allow that]

Sept 20, 2012 11:45:41 GMT -5 @ga68153 said:

I hope PSY hits the top 5 this week and then #1. :)

As much as I'd appreciate the symbolic value in having a foreign language #1, PSY needs to temporarily fall back should there be an opportunity for One Direction to take the top spot.

[when the pawn...]

Between PSY, Ke$ha and One Direction (+ building airplay/sales for Taylor, Christina, Maroon 5, fun & Bieber), the Hot 100 is gonna get interesting next week!

Let alone the BB200 with Mumford & Sons, Green Day, Lupe Fiasco and No Doubt coming out next week.

[Agent Yoncé]

A lot of green today

[ingrownhairdyke]

get that airplay smash Xtina

[SPRΞΞ]

I don't get the point of predictions when streaming is unknown, and changes everything anyways.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 20, 2012 11:44:04 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Well, he's giving most an idea where a song will fall. I don't think anyone expect him to be 100% accurate.

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 149.48 (+ 4.03)
2. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 492.37 (- 6.47)

That doesn't make sense to me....

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 20, 2012 16:43:38 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I don't get the point of predictions when streaming is unknown, and changes everything anyways.

Streaming doesn't change everything. Although there has got to be a way to include it into the rankings somehow. Does Spotify have some APIs to take advantage of maybe?

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2012 11:50:05 GMT -5 allow that said:

Sept 20, 2012 11:45:41 GMT -5 @ga68153 said:

I hope PSY hits the top 5 this week and then #1. :)

As much as I'd appreciate the symbolic value in having a foreign language #1

What exactly is the symbolic value in having a foreign language #1? It's not like this would even be the first time it's ever happened. Ever hear of "Volare" (Italian), "Sukiyaki" (Japanese), "Dominique" (French), or "La Bamba" (Spanish)?

[allow that]

Well shit son I've just been asked to testify.

Sept 20, 2012 17:29:52 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

What exactly is the symbolic value in having a foreign language #1?

To burst the bubble many Americans live in and create exposure to other cultures that we share a planet with, perhaps.

It's not like this would even be the first time it's ever happened.

The most recent of those you listed is from 25 years ago so...

Ever hear of "Volare" (Italian),

I'm Italian-American so like DUH!

[forg]

I think Gangnam Style will be #4 or #5 next week, depends on the sales, I hope its big enough

[ListenToItTwice]

Sept 20, 2012 18:57:52 GMT -5 allow that said:

Well s**t son I've just been asked to testify.

Post of the day.

[chartfreak]

Sept 20, 2012 17:15:50 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Sept 20, 2012 16:43:38 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I don't get the point of predictions when streaming is unknown, and changes everything anyways.

Streaming doesn't change everything. Although there has got to be a way to include it into the rankings somehow. Does Spotify have some APIs to take advantage of maybe?

He's doing fine even with limited Streaming info. It's not like he says a song will be #2 and then it's #15. Oh well.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 20, 2012 20:20:07 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Sept 20, 2012 17:15:50 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Streaming doesn't change everything. Although there has got to be a way to include it into the rankings somehow. Does Spotify have some APIs to take advantage of maybe?

He's doing fine even with limited Streaming info. It's not like he says a song will be #2 and then it's #15. Oh well.

Right. However, I was just curious. I will talk to my friend who works at spotify to see if there are any plans for a public API. I was pointing out the math was wrong how is Tay Tay #2 with 400 something points but #1 only has 149 points.

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 149.48 (+ 4.03)
2. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 492.37 (- 6.47)

[dlostfan]

A better and more accurate way is to project the numbers in all three format and then apply the approximate formula that we have:

- With last week numbers, percentage increase/decrease and itunes performance for current week, sales can be estimated within 5% error.

- With last week's BDS numbers and % increase/decrease in Mediabase numbers through the week, Airplay can be estimated within 2%.

- With last week numbers, percent increase/decrease and change of rankings on Spotify, streaming can be estimated within 5-10% as well. Streaming generally has the same curve as Airplay, but is a bit more irregular.

[dlostfan]

Approx sales required for GS to hit different rankings:

#5 - 210k
#3 - 230k
#2 - 250k
#1- 300k

[nivekwriter1]

Sept 20, 2012 21:54:51 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Sept 20, 2012 20:20:07 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

He's doing fine even with limited Streaming info. It's not like he says a song will be #2 and then it's #15. Oh well.

Right. However, I was just curious. I will talk to my friend who works at spotify to see if there are any plans for a public API. I was pointing out the math was wrong how is Tay Tay #2 with 400 something points but #1 only has 149 points.

1. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 149.48 (+ 4.03)
2. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 492.37 (- 6.47)

That's because we can't track streaming.
Eeven withour streaming Maroon 5 is now ahead of Taylor with 1 point, wich means that with streaming it has a big lead.

[SPRΞΞ]

Knowing formulas and making precise predictions takes away from the element of surprise. I like being surprised on Wednesday's. I don't really want that taken away from me. It's kinda like in the old days you wouldn't hear your favs new single until it actually premiered on the radio. There were no leaks. This is basically the same concept. Of course I can't stop it, but I much prefer the element of surprise over knowing everything all the time anyday.

[cesarams]

FRIDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 139.629 (+ 1.748)
2. ELLIE GOULDING – Lights: 128.670 (- 1.422)
3. FLO RIDA – Whistle: 122.443 (- 1.642)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – We Are Never Ever Getting…: 119.954 (+ 1.367)
5. KATY PERRY – Wide Awake: 117.155 (- 1.132)
6. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 114.327 (+ 2.327) ▲[/color]
7. NEON TREES – Everybody Talks: 113.317 (- 0.427) ▼
8. JUSTIN BIEBER – As Long As You Love Me: 111.019 (+ 1.060)
9. DEMI LOVATO – Give Your Heart A Break: 99.079 (- 1.263)
10. FUN. – Some Nights: 98.327 (+ 1.671)
11. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Good Time: 95.641 (+ 1.512)
12. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 89.920 (- 0.760)
13. MAROON 5 – Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 86.537 (- 2.332)
14. DAVID GUETTA – Titanium f/Sia: 84.347 (- 1.938)
15. NICKI MINAJ – Pound The Alarm: 83.178 (+ 0.767) ▲
16. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 80.958 (+ 0.705) ▲
17. RIHANNA – Where Have You Been: 80.916 (- 1.643) ▼
18. CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Call Me Maybe: 75.821 (- 1.107)
19. CHRIS BROWN – Don’t Wake Me Up: 72.793 (+ 1.595)
20. KANYE WEST – Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T…: 65.105 (- 0.682)

OTHERS:

HUNTER HAYES – Wanted: 62.281 (- 0.122)
JASON ALDEAN – Take A Little Ride: 60.107 (+ 0.703)
MIGUEL – Adorn: 56.495 (+ 1.280)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Blown Away: 50.471 (+ 0.800)
NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 49.774 (+ 1.308)
JASON MRAZ – I Won’t Give Up: 45.595 (- 1.346)
TRAIN – 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 44.446 (+ 0.685)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 43.127 (+ 0.217)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 34.511 (+ 0.435)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 31.157 (+ 0.667)
KARMIN – Hello: 31.053 (+ 0.149)
MATCHBOX TWENTY – She’s So Mean: 29.715 (- 0.270)
PSY – Gangnam Style: 26.782 (+ 2.340)[/color]
BEYONCE – Dance For You: 24.003 (+ 0.816)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA – Your Body: 21.854 (+ 2.477)
KANYE WEST – Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 21.295 (+ 1.385)
ONEREPUBLIC – Feel Again: 20.843 (+ 0.517)
USHER – Numb: 18.206 (+ 1.074)
ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 15.751 (+ 0.423)
OLLY MURS – Heart Skips A Beat: 14.001 (- 0.178)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 12.843 (+ 0.090)
MUSE – Madness: 12.431 (+ 0.211)
ONE DIRECTION – Live While We're Young: 7.542
BRIDGIT MENDLER – Ready Or Not: 3.148
CARLY RAE JEPSEN – This Kiss: 1.737
CIARA – Sorry: 1.119
NICKI MINAJ & CASSIE – The Boys: 0.485
DAVID GUETTA – She Wolf (Falling To Pieces): 0.331
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 0.007

[Lozzy]

fuck

ONE DIRECTION – Live While We're Young: 7.542

[HolidayGuy]

Tomorrow will be the eighth-day-rolling effect for Aguilera's track. If it sees a similar gain, it would be around a -8.5m or so, I suppose.

I can't believe One Direction has a new album coming out, when the first one was released just this year.

[hitseeker.]

Sept 21, 2012 7:39:30 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I can't believe One Direction has a new album coming out, when the first one was released just this year.

It reminds me of the Spice Girls in 1997 when they released 'Spice' and 'Spice World' in the US.