Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 17:51:07 GMT -5
Where do you think will this debut at next week? For Billboard, I'm gonna go with a #37 debut. Anyone wanna take me on? ;)
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Sept 26, 2012 17:52:49 GMT -5
Where do you think will this debut at next week? For Billboard, I'm gonna go with a #37 debut. Anyone wanna take me on? ;) As long as Kristen Kelly can make the top 30 next week I don't care where this debuts lol I've been waiting for that to happen for what seems like forever now
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 18:14:03 GMT -5
^I think Kristen will be good for either the #29 or #30 spot. Dierks Bentley and Jon Pardi will probably keep pulling away, but I think 4 songs will go recurrent (Josh, LBT, B&R, and Lady A), so that will help immensely. And the only song that really has a chance at passing Kristen this week is Thomas Rhett's "Beer With Jesus", but she may stay ahead of him for 1 more week. If not, she'd still gain at least 3 spots to land at #30.
For Taylor, I think she'll land at #37, between Gary Allan (#36) and Rodney Atkins (#38). I think the Zac Brown Band will probably jump just ahead of Gary, to #35 or so. Lauren Alaina and Maggie Rose might both go backward a bit (in audience)...so far, so good, with their MB gains this week (not huge, but still gains)...however, they finished outside the top 40 on the 10/6 Mediabase chart so they'll both lose countdown spins this weekend, and possibly lose their bullets on Billboard, until they can get back in the top 40 on Mediabase. Because of all the recurrents this week, they should move back into the top 40 on both charts, even if they post a loss, but I'd bet they fall behind Rodney Atkins and I think Taylor will be able to debut ahead of them too.
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Post by nncountrykid on Sept 26, 2012 19:25:32 GMT -5
This sounds like a Lori McKenna song
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Sept 26, 2012 20:50:57 GMT -5
For Billboard, I'm gonna go with a #37 debut. Anyone wanna take me on? ;) As long as Kristen Kelly can make the top 30 next week I don't care where this debuts lol I've been waiting for that to happen for what seems like forever now Request granted by the BB gods, as long as she shows a gain for the week when the week is over. If she starts going backwards, she can drop below Cagle and finish at 31. But right now she's heading to a gain of just under half a million and that's plenty enough. You've been saying your prayers in the right way (but it sure took a long time to get through).
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Sept 27, 2012 11:19:20 GMT -5
I like WANEGBT a lot (too catchy to deny it), but Begin Again is obviously better suited for country radio and will easily bring Taylor back to the top 10. Gives me an Ours (2nd fav single from SN after Mean) vibe too, which is good since I've always like better her slower, quieter songs ( Dear John, Tim McGraw, Haunted, Ronan, etc) Are we hearing the same songs? Compared to others like Sparks Fly, Should've Said No, Better Than Revenge,etc, yes they are. And Haunted I'm talking about the acoustic version, I haven't heard the other one
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tsr
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Post by tsr on Sept 27, 2012 11:59:16 GMT -5
Are we hearing the same songs? Compared to others like Sparks Fly, Should've Said No, Better Than Revenge,etc, yes they are. And Haunted I'm talking about the acoustic version, I haven't heard the other one I have to disagree with "Dear John" still, aside from maybe the beginning... but the acoustic version of "Haunted" makes more sense.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 27, 2012 12:02:03 GMT -5
On Mediabase's spins-Increase list (which includes all stations, not just monitored-panel ones), this track has 205 spins.
It's not like WANEGBT is freefalling at country, though- it's down 152 spins from the week prior, currently No. 18 on MB's 7-day-rolling chart.
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peterca
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Post by peterca on Sept 27, 2012 12:42:09 GMT -5
Three tracks right below WANEGBT has more AIs, but yet are lower in chart position. In fact, Justin's "'Til My Last Day" has 129 more spins and 1.74 million more AIs, but yet WANEGBT is higher on the chart. Look for WANEGBT to drop out of the top 20 tomorrow and free fall out of the top 40 before it goes recurrent.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Sept 27, 2012 13:36:38 GMT -5
On Mediabase's spins-Increase list (which includes all stations, not just monitored-panel ones), this track has 205 spins. It's not like WANEGBT is freefalling at country, though- it's down 152 spins from the week prior, currently No. 18 on MB's 7-day-rolling chart. You're right, the freefall hasn't started. When it does happen, though, it won't be a subtle drop. This one's going to fall very hard and very fast. Next week should be entertaining for those who like to stop and look at automobile accidents. I myself prefer to drive right by.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Sept 27, 2012 15:19:36 GMT -5
On Mediabase's spins-Increase list (which includes all stations, not just monitored-panel ones), this track has 205 spins. It's not like WANEGBT is freefalling at country, though- it's down 152 spins from the week prior, currently No. 18 on MB's 7-day-rolling chart. You're right, the freefall hasn't started. When it does happen, though, it won't be a subtle drop. This one's going to fall very hard and very fast. Next week should be entertaining for those who like to stop and look at automobile accidents. I myself prefer to drive right by. An AI drop of 814k does not a freefall signal? ;)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2012 15:29:16 GMT -5
You're right, the freefall hasn't started. When it does happen, though, it won't be a subtle drop. This one's going to fall very hard and very fast. Next week should be entertaining for those who like to stop and look at automobile accidents. I myself prefer to drive right by. An AI drop of 814k does not a freefall signal? ;) I'm expecting HUGE drops for WANEGBT next week...maybe 2 million or more per day. I honestly think it's possible for the song to possibly fall down into the 35-40 range, and we'll see if it can possibly pull off a historically bad fall out of the top 40.
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Sept 27, 2012 15:52:02 GMT -5
Compared to others like Sparks Fly, Should've Said No, Better Than Revenge,etc, yes they are. And Haunted I'm talking about the acoustic version, I haven't heard the other one I have to disagree with "Dear John" still, aside from maybe the beginning... but the acoustic version of "Haunted" makes more sense. Well, you are actually right: the chorus is not what I would call "quiet", but the rest is imo
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 27, 2012 16:51:59 GMT -5
Can we not discuss "Never Ever" in its own thread perhaps (which is very easily located on the first page of this forum) and not clutter up this thread with discussion irrelevant to this single? It'd be quite nice.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2012 17:12:22 GMT -5
Can we not discuss "Never Ever" in its own thread perhaps (which is very easily located on the first page of this forum) and not clutter up this thread with discussion irrelevant to this single? It'd be quite nice. I don't think the topic's been de-railed by any means. It's a bit of a tangent discussion, sure, but we're talking about how WANEGBT is falling, which happened because of the release of "Begin Again". No one seemed to have a problem with posters talking about Taylor's past singles earlier today? That's not directly related to this song. I can tell you are a pretty big Taylor Swift fan, but I haven't seen you all that much in the country forum, and I didn't really appreciate the snide tone of your post. I agree that the primary discussion should focus on a thread's topic, but I don't feel like we've gone way off course here. There are merely a few replies from today only, responding to HolidayGuy's post. If someone has an issue with something, they can bring it up with drock89 or 43dudleyvillas.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 27, 2012 17:29:22 GMT -5
I don't think the topic's been de-railed by any means. I never said it was derailed (though it's on its way). I didn't like it anymore than the discussion of "Never Ever" to be honest. I understand that a thread's discussion isn't going to focus solely on the topic at hand, but lately it seems it's dealing with anything but "Begin Again" (when "Never Ever" has its very own thread just a scroll away). I visit daily. I just don't post frequently. I don't think you have to post a lot to be what most would consider a "regular".
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Post by strikeleo on Sept 27, 2012 17:37:57 GMT -5
Sometimes I really can't understand people. The topic was being derailed and it didn't help that a poster talked about driving by an accident. People aren't here to read how amazing it's going to be Never Ever falls, there is a thread for that.
So anyway, back to Begin Again. I really want it to make it to the top.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2012 17:53:26 GMT -5
Sometimes I really can't understand people. The topic was being derailed and it didn't help that a poster talked about driving by an accident. Zazie wasn't talking about an actual accident...it was a metaphor. Comparing the crash/chart failure (by Taylor's standards on Hot Country Song) of WANEGBT to a car crash. I never said it was derailed (though it's on its way). Right... I visit daily. I just don't post frequently. I don't think you have to post a lot to be what most would consider a "regular". Fair enough. I just feel that the few posters I've seen in this thread today (Zazie, carriekins, dajire4, tsr, myself), that didn't directly reference "Begin Again", all post in the country forum quite often, and most of us here rarely get off topic or 'throw shade' like I see in so many other parts of Pulse, and your post seemed rather snide to me. But, water under the bridge... Anyway, I see Taylor's audience on Mediabase is at 1.319 million with this song, after only about 2 days of airplay (from early morning Tuesday all the way through yesterday) so far. That's probably gonna translate to about 1 million AI's for Billboard, and she has 4 more days left to go (including today). Maybe she can debut with close to 3 million, but anywhere in that 2.5 to 3 million range seems likely, which would make it pretty close with Rodney Atkins and Lauren Alaina. I think everyone from #39 Gary Allan on up will be out of reach, and the ZBB (#44 last week) will also jump into that group, so that would put Taylor at #41, but with 4 songs set to go recurrent, she'd debut at #37. I'll stick with that as my original prediction, although both Rodney Atkins and Lauren Alaina look like they could be very close to her.
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Post by strikeleo on Sept 28, 2012 0:35:06 GMT -5
I did get the metaphor, I just found it a bit mean-spirited.
I hope your prediction is right and she debuts inside the top 40!
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bluedog6
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Post by bluedog6 on Sept 28, 2012 6:33:53 GMT -5
Heard this for the first time on radio a day or two ago. A good enough song and not a station changer for me like the last single. What really had me chuckling though was the banter between the 2 morning DJ's after the song was done. The male DJ said something like "Well that was Taylor Swift with "Here we go again", uh, I mean "Begin Again" ". You could tell that comment was totally on purpose. The female DJ then commented that this was a much more mature song and the male DJ said yes, that he actually liked this song ("Begin Again") with strong implication that the same could not be said about "never ever". Yep, the whole vibe of the conversation had me smiling.
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Post by justlurkingaround on Sept 28, 2012 6:58:28 GMT -5
I'm surprised this hasn't cracked the top 50 yet. Is country radio being more cautious regarding it?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2012 7:23:18 GMT -5
I'm surprised this hasn't cracked the top 50 yet. Is country radio being more cautious regarding it? Eh, I doubt it. I don't really think it's that surprising, myself. It's only been at radio for 3 full days, and I think it was kinda dropped on them...no one really knew 'til Monday evening, and a lot of stations might've simply refused to go through the hassle to get it on this week's playlist, and will wait 'til adds date and next week. But anyway, if you look at the songs in the 45-50 range on Mediabase, most of them are a good bit under 2 million AI's, except for Alan Jackson's song, whose numbers are inflated by one of the satellite radio stations on the MB panel. Another thing to note is that the songs in this range all have about 330-530 total spins. If you add up all of Taylor's numbers from AllAccess (will need to login), she's up to 2.054 million AI's and 246 spins from Tuesday through Thursday. She'll debut lower on Mediabase, no doubt, but I'd expect her to show up on the rolling chart probably tomorrow. And she outdid my expectation overnight, in terms of audience gain, so I feel pretty confident about her getting a top 40 debut on Billboard. Two days left in the Mediabase week, 3 days in Billboard...she'll only have 5 total days in the MB week, and 6 in Billboard, since the song wasn't sent to radio 'til early Tuesday morning. But, she's gotten 2 million AI's in 3 days, with 3 to go...so we'll go a little conservative and say she lands around 3.6 to 3.8 million this time Monday morning. Billboard numbers will be a bit less, but anything in the 3.0 to 3.5 million range is going to give her a solid top 40 debut...ahead of Lauren Alaina, Maggie Rose, and Rodney Atkins (I'm pretty confident of that now). Everybody from 1-38 -- maybe through #39 Gary Allan -- on the last Billboard chart should stay ahead of her (the ZBB will also jump into that group) except for the 4 songs heading recurrent. So, if it's 39 songs ahead of her, that would put Taylor at #40 already, but #36 with the recurrents dropping off. If Gary stays ahead, she's at #37.
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Kyla
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Post by Kyla on Sept 28, 2012 16:56:49 GMT -5
Produced by Dann Huff, Nathan Chapman, and Taylor Swift.
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jughead
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Post by jughead on Sept 28, 2012 20:57:11 GMT -5
I'm fine if this does not sky-rocket like her previous singles. Right now, longevity is what I want to see.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Sept 28, 2012 21:38:14 GMT -5
This song is fantastic. It will make plenty of gains on Country.
Did she write this solo?
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anafan
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Post by anafan on Sept 29, 2012 1:26:47 GMT -5
Love this song!
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valiant
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Post by valiant on Sept 29, 2012 2:00:46 GMT -5
This song is fantastic. It will make plenty of gains on Country. Did she write this solo? Yep.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2012 7:29:05 GMT -5
Up another 600k yesterday, and she shows up at #48 on Mediabase this morning. Total audience is now up to 2.663 million. I bet she can add another million over the next 2 days, and that would probably put her just over 3 million on Billboard. Gary Allan is gonna stay ahead of her, but it's looking more and more likely that she'll have a Billboard debut of #37.
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jughead
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Post by jughead on Sept 29, 2012 8:03:32 GMT -5
Hopefully, she doesn't get the treatment that Faith Hill had with There You'll Be and all the singles off Cry. Do you think country radios will punish Taylor for WANEGBT?
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Sept 29, 2012 12:10:34 GMT -5
Hopefully, she doesn't get the treatment that Faith Hill had with There You'll Be and all the singles off Cry. Do you think country radios will punish Taylor for WANEGBT? No worries.
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