Billboard Hot 100: 10/20/12

[Au$tin]

I don't think Adele has a deal, though.

[Deleted]

Oct 6, 2012 12:15:50 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I don't think Adele has a deal, though.

Billboard disagrees:

For 24 hours beginning at 6 a.m. local time on Friday, Oct. 5, "Skyfall" will be played hourly on all of Clear Channel's mainstream top 40, adult top 40 and adult contemporary stations. It's the latest single supported by hourly radio plays, following similar launches for Rihanna's "Diamonds," Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and earlier singles from Jason Aldean, Madonna, and Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw.

[Rodze]

I wonder when a label will start to buy a song on iTunes until it reaches number one.

I mean, it's just another way to promote the song.

[Au$tin]

Oct 6, 2012 13:13:27 GMT -5 Rodze said:

I wonder when a label will start to buy a song on iTunes until it reaches number one.

I mean, it's just another way to promote the song.

iTunes only counts one download per person.

[Deleted]

Soundscan counts I think up to 5 copies per person, but I haven't heard anything about pop bars filtering them.

[Deleted]

There is no set number; they simply remove 'outliers'. As in if someone buys 10 copies of a song, it's an outlier from the norm and thus not counted.

[Deleted]

Oh, and if you're simply talking about them manipulating iTunes positions:

Put a song on pre-order; set it up so that you're pre-ordering like 500k or so copies to make the pre-order shoot up to #1 on iTunes & then cancel all of the pre-orders before the song actually goes on sale.

[Au$tin]

That's just cruel.

Oct 6, 2012 12:29:41 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Oct 6, 2012 12:15:50 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I don't think Adele has a deal, though.

Billboard disagrees:

For 24 hours beginning at 6 a.m. local time on Friday, Oct. 5, "Skyfall" will be played hourly on all of Clear Channel's mainstream top 40, adult top 40 and adult contemporary stations. It's the latest single supported by hourly radio plays, following similar launches for Rihanna's "Diamonds," Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and earlier singles from Jason Aldean, Madonna, and Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw.

That's strange, because it didn't get that great of an update on pop today as the others.

[Deleted]

That might be because radio formats aren't comprised of solely Clear Channel stations. Ke$ha's new song likely got a good amount of hype spins from other stations; whereas Adele's song might not have considering it is a Bond theme.

[fridayteenage]

I think it sounds legit:

@chartnews
@taylorswift13's Red sold more than 138,000 in its 1st 24 hrs of serviceable downloads. @onedirection's Live While We're Young sold 180,000.
Skyfall by @officialadele sold 128,163 copies in its 1st 30 hours of serviceable downloads in the US
US digital sales: Red should sell 305-310,000 by the end of the digital tracking period of Sunday 11:59pm (#1 on Hot Digital Songs).

But how crazy frontloaded is One Direction if they sold over 40k more in their first day than Taylor's first day, and have more than a full day extra of availability, yet are expected to sell less in a week than her?

[Envoirment]

Oct 6, 2012 17:13:45 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I think it sounds legit:

@chartnews
@taylorswift13's Red sold more than 138,000 in its 1st 24 hrs of serviceable downloads. @onedirection's Live While We're Young sold 180,000.
Skyfall by @officialadele sold 128,163 copies in its 1st 30 hours of serviceable downloads in the US
US digital sales: Red should sell 305-310,000 by the end of the digital tracking period of Sunday 11:59pm (#1 on Hot Digital Songs).

But how crazy frontloaded is One Direction if they sold over 40k more in their first day than Taylor's first day, and have more than a full day extra of availability, yet are expected to sell less in a week than her?

Not very. The same thing has happened in the UK. Big lead for the first day, then fell quite hard. But it is to be expected, seeming as most of their fanbase pre-ordered the song beforehand.

[hitseeker.]

Oct 6, 2012 17:57:46 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Oct 6, 2012 17:13:45 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I think it sounds legit:

@chartnews
@taylorswift13's Red sold more than 138,000 in its 1st 24 hrs of serviceable downloads. @onedirection's Live While We're Young sold 180,000.
Skyfall by @officialadele sold 128,163 copies in its 1st 30 hours of serviceable downloads in the US
US digital sales: Red should sell 305-310,000 by the end of the digital tracking period of Sunday 11:59pm (#1 on Hot Digital Songs).

But how crazy frontloaded is One Direction if they sold over 40k more in their first day than Taylor's first day, and have more than a full day extra of availability, yet are expected to sell less in a week than her?

Not very. The same thing has happened in the UK. Big lead for the first day, then fell quite hard. But it is to be expected, seeming as most of their fanbase pre-ordered the song beforehand.

Precisely. I remember reading a Billboard article posted here saying that 1D sold well in their first two days but then decreased in sales as the week progressed; Taylor may have maintained a better sales rate throughout the week. So considering this it makes sense that Taylor may sell more than 1D :)

[fridayteenage]

So how is that NOT being frontloaded exactly, if about 60% of their weekly sales are coming from the first day?

[Deleted]

I believe they were agreeing that 1D is frontloaded; and just saying that it was surprising based on their performance in AU and UK. Or at least that's what they should be saying anyway.

[josh]

I think Envoirment's point was a lot of the first day sales were from pre-orders, not necessarily being bought directly in those 24 hours. But that's not the case for the US, since it wasn't available for pre-order here.

[hitseeker.]

Oct 6, 2012 18:45:09 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

So how is that NOT being frontloaded exactly, if about 60% of their weekly sales are coming from the first day?

Well, Envoirment didn't say that they are not frontloaded, only they are 'not very' in response to your other post

They are definitely frontloaded imo, or at least the performance of this single in the US iTunes store is frontloaded lol

[Envoirment]

Sorry guys! I read his post wrong. I thought he was said how crazy it was how frontloaded one direction are lol. I didn't mean to say they aren't, because they certainly are!

[HolidayGuy]

"Skyfall" indeed did have CC promo; at the top of every hour, it was played on participating stations, with a voice intro from Ms. Adkins.

[fridayteenage]

Oh, I was using "crazy" as an adverb in place of "crazily." As in emphasizing to what degree the front-loading was, rather than saying it was surprising. Sorry for my imprecise grammar.

Also I looked at all (rather than just solo) songs to sell 295k (300 if rounded to the nearest 10) in a non-post-Xmas week, with non-solos marked:

[Right Round 636
We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 623
[Somebody That I Used 542
Boyfriend 521
Born this Way 509
[Payphone 493
[Boom Boom Pow 465
[Crack a Bottle 418
Forget You 412

Hold It Against Me/Part of Me 411
[We Are Young 390
Not Afraid 379
I Will Always Love You 367
[California Girls 359
Rolling in the Deep 353
[Love the Way You Lie 352
[ET 344
[Live Your Life 334
Today was a Fairytale 325
Call Me Maybe, Gangnam Style 301
Begin Again 299
Mine 297

24 songs. Top artists:

Taylor: 4 solos (+ apparently 1 solo this week, with possibly more to come this month)
Katy: 1 solo + 2 leads
Eminem: 1 solo + 2 leads
Rihanna: 2 featured
Adele: 1 solo (+ possibly 1 solo this or next week)

[Deleted]

at lowering it to 295 so you can include 2 Taylor songs. Might aswell make it 297k.

[jasontoralba]

i suggest 296,999+ downloads :)

[fridayteenage]

295 is the smallest # that rounds up to 300 if going to the nearest 10. Which is why it's more appropriate and an actual non-random # than 297. I learned this in elementary school.

[matelot]

but there is no need to round up anything or to be insincere, the 300k threshold is clear

[fridayteenage]

One could argue that 300 is an arbitrary number just as one could argue that rounding to the nearest 10 is arbitrary. I mean, 300 is, what, 3/5 of gold? 3/10 of platinum? Unexciting fractions.

People can also choose what numbers they feel are good/solid for themselves and not need others to scoff and be generally negative about it.

[Lozzy]

300 is a round number and a reasonable threshold to consider. 295 is not. There's no need to round to the nearest 10 if we have more accurate figures.

That is all.

[nivekwriter1]

SUNDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 155.524 (+ 0.464)
2. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 148.553 (+ 1.446)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER – As Long As You Love Me: 128.510 (+ 1.772)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – We Are Never Ever Getting…: 121.374 (- 1.886)
5. FUN. – Some Nights: 118.636 (+ 1.670)
6. NEON TREES – Everybody Talks: 105.282 (- 1.482)
7. ELLIE GOULDING – Lights: 104.246 (- 0.642)
8. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Good Time: 103.124 (+ 1.121)
9. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 98.236 (+ 1.712)
9. KATY PERRY – Wide Awake: 96.367 (- 2.506)
11. FLO RIDA – Whistle: 90.397 (- 2.865)
12. CHRIS BROWN – Don’t Wake Me Up: 87.723 (+ 0.778)
13. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 81.299 (- 0.843)
14. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 74.702 (+ 2.139)
15. NICKI MINAJ – Pound The Alarm: 72.232 (- 1.677)
16. MIGUEL – Adorn: 70.767 (+ 0.372)
17. DEMI LOVATO – Give Your Heart A Break: 69.752 (- 1.434)
18. MAROON 5 – Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 65.096 (- 0.961)
19. JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 62.478 (+ 0.032)
20. CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Call Me Maybe: 61.890 (- 0.968)

OTHERS:

DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 61.629 (- 1.113)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Blown Away: 60.851 (+ 0.943)
DUSTIN LYNCH – Cowboys And Angels: 59.858 (+ 0.504)
JANA KRAMER – Why Ya Wanna: 56.768 (- 0.510)
PSY – Gangnam Style: 54.329 (+ 1.348)
FRENCH MONATANA - Pop That f/Rick Ross: 52.931 (+ 1.272)
TRAIN – 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 50.339 (+ 0.191)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 46.015 (+ 0.864)
KE$HA – Die Young: 45.951 (+ 2.428)
RIHANNA – Diamonds: 44.706 (+ 5.209)[/b][/color]
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 43.097 (+ 0.417)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 42.842 (+ 0.644)
KANYE WEST – Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 37.967 (+ 0.554)
BRANDY - Put It Down f/Chris Brown: 31.915
BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 29.794 (+ 4.843)
ONEREPUBLIC – Feel Again: 28.538 (+ 0.948)
ONE DIRECTION – Live While We’re Young: 28.218 (+ 0.745)
USHER – Numb: 27.814 (+ 0.678)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA – Your Body: 26.619 (+ 0.673)
BEYONCE – Dance For You: 26.327 (+ 0.395)
ADELE – Skyfall: 25.780 (+ 1.795)
ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 19.382 (+ 0.607)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 17.737 (+ 0.484)
MUSE – Madness: 13.908 (+ 0.211)
LINKIN PARK - Lost In The Echo: 9.371
CHER LLOYD - Oath f/Becky G: 1.611
PINK - Try: 1.335

From Kworb website:

TAYLOR SWIFT - Begin Again: 9.450 (+ 1.144)
ELLIE GOULDING - Anything Could Happen: 5.005 (+ 0.490)

[Deleted]

1. 285.782 WOMANIZER - Britney Spears
1. 293.000 S & M - Rihanna ft. Britney Spears

I recommend the threshold to be 285.782, it still rounds to 300 if you go by 50's.

[moore746]

Oct 7, 2012 4:50:57 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

295 is the smallest # that rounds up to 300 if going to the nearest 10. Which is why it's more appropriate and an actual non-random # than 297. I learned this in elementary school.

You look ridiculous.

[bat1990]

YASSS!!! BranBran finally on the radio update. PID is become a surprise R&B hit.

[josh]

Damn at all this airplay Taylor is losing. I figured Pop and HAC would be able to at least keep her about neutral... Combining that with the fact that her sales keep declining each week, I think she might lose her bullet this week, even with streaming now being a factor. Next week airplay on country will be much more stable (doesn't have much more room to fall there) so airplay will probably see a gain, and possilbly have the bullet back overall.