Billboard Hot 100: 10/20/12

[Agent Yoncé]

It should. I know my station said they had the song for a week & they played the whole song, not 30secs of it.

[badrobot]

Oct 5, 2012 8:03:10 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Oct 5, 2012 7:58:13 GMT -5 p0isonparadise. said:

ADELE – Skyfall: 1.430 (+ 1.370)

Tomorrows update is going to be scary.

Definitely! I'm thinking a possible +50 mil AI.

Uh... no.

The #1 song in the country is getting about 22m per day. Taylor Swift had a ridiculous first day with her lead single due to an unprecedented level of promo that I don't think we'll see often otherwise.

I'm betting more like 10-15m, but who knows.

[josh]

TAYLOR SWIFT - We Are Never Ever Getting...: 50.114 (+ 44.164)

This includes Country. Other than that, Adele has pop, HAC, and AC like Taylor. She's more of a staple on HAC and AC so will probably do better from non-CC stations there.

Country for Taylor:
26 +18 TAYLOR SWIFT We Are Never Ever Ge... 1559 [phone] +1274 12.526 +10.958

So I'd say 30+ million is quite likely for Adele.

[#LisaRinna]

So Adele got herself a radio deal too?

[p0isonparadise.]

Yes. Every CC station will be playing this every hour for 24 hours on Pop, HAC, and AC.

[imbondz]

too bad it's not a great song

[HolidayGuy]

www.billboard.com/column/chartbeat#/news/psy-in-close-race-for-hot-100-no-1-1007972912.story

PSY in Close Race for Hot 100 No. 1
by Keith Caulfield, L.A. | October 04, 2012

The race for No. 1 is on. . . Again! While PSY's "Gangnam Style" almost claimed the No. 1 slot on the Billboard Hot 100 this week -- in the closest race for the top since February -- Maroon 5 remained at No. 1 with "One More Night."

But, PSY is still in the hunt for No. 1, while Maroon 5 is looking to defend its title. Can PSY take the crown next week?

Presently, industry sources suggest that "Gangnam Style" might sell between 270,000 to 290,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Oct. 7 (the track sold 299,000 last week, according to Nielsen SoundScan). Maroon 5, however, may shift 155,000 to 175,000 (down from 181,000 last week). So the unit gap between both songs is projecting to be on par this week with what it was over the prior seven days, thought that is always subject to change this early in the tracking week.

Maroon 5's deficiency in sales was overcome on the most recent Hot 100 by its great lead in airplay. Last week, it ranked as the No. 2 title on the all-format Radio Songs airplay chart with 116.3 million audience impressions, according to Nielsen BDS (up 14.7 million), while "Gangnam Style" jumped 34-23 with 45.9 million impressions (up 12.3 million). After slightly more than a day and a half (the Radio Songs tracking week runs from Wednesday to Tuesday), Maroon 5's audience impressions stand at 27.8 million (up 1.8 million from the similar period a week ago). PSY, however is at 11.1 million impression though its week-to-date gain comparison of 2.7 million impressions (to Maroon 5's 1.8 million) bodes well for its possible Hot 100 No. 1 ascension.

Not in the running for No. 1, but targeting a top 10 debut, are One Direction's "Live While We're Young" and Taylor Swift's "Red." The former hit digital retailers on Monday, Oct. 1 while Swift's track went on sale the following day. One Direction might sell around 300,000 downloads, while Swift should move more than 300,000. The airplay for "Live While We're Young" is still building, so it's not a contender for the No. 1 slot on the Hot 100. The same goes for Swift's "Red," which is another pre-release single from the same-titled album, due out Oct. 22.

The real wild card in the mix this week is Adele's "Skyfall." It's the title theme song from the upcoming James Bond film and the first new recording from Adele since her blockbuster "21" album. The track debuts globally this evening (Oct. 4) -- at 7:07 PM EST (or, at 0:07 local time in Bond's home of London, on Oct. 5).

"Skyfall" is the latest single supported by hourly radio plays from Clear Channel Media and Entertainment's chain of stations. For 24 hours beginning at 6 AM local time on Friday, Oct. 5, all of Clear Channel's mainstream top 40, adult top 40 and adult contemporary stations will play "Skyfall" hourly. Similar promotion from Clear Channel have supported the launches of Rihanna's "Diamonds" and Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," in addition to earlier singles from Jason Aldean, Madonna and Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw.

How much "Skyfall" will sell is anyone's guess at this point. But don't rule out a big number. It's the diva's first new studio recording in over 18 months and comes after the overwhelming success of her "21" album and its five Grammy Award wins.

The SoundScan tracking week ends at the close of business on Sunday, Oct. 7, so "Skyfall" will have a little over three days worth of sales in its first charting week. The song has been available to pre-order in the U.S. iTunes Store since Monday.

[SPRΞΞ]

Biggest 8th day drop ever?

[josh]

Pretty sure that record will be owned forever by Taylor.

[fridayteenage]

So I guess 3 200k debuts is a cert then.

We've only had 2 weeks with 2 200k debuts: Mariah/Madonna & Katy/Nicki.

[The Upper Hand]

Overall digital sales this week must be very high.

[HolidayGuy]

A couple of articles:

www.billboard.com/column/chartbeat#/news/adele-s-skyfall-blasts-onto-radio-headed-1007973332.story

Adele's 'Skyfall' Blasts Onto Radio, Headed For Hot 100
by Gary Trust and Keith Caulfield | October 05, 2012

Adele's James Bond theme song, "Skyfall," is headed for a notable debut on the Billboard Hot 100, based on a strong launch on radio and early sales projections. The song arrives a few weeks before the series' latest film, starring Daniel Craig, premieres in theaters.

For 24 hours beginning at 6 a.m. local time today (Oct. 5), "Skyfall" is airing at the top of each hour on approximately 180 Clear Channel Media and Entertainment pop, adult pop and adult contemporary stations (roughly 100 of which report to the Billboard Hot 100). It's the latest single supported by the chain with hourly plays, following similar launches for Rihanna's "Diamonds," Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and earlier songs by Prince, Jason Aldean, Madonna and others.

After the song was released yesterday evening, "Skyfall" is already trending around the No. 50 rank on the building all-format Nielsen BDS-based Radio Songs chart (which runs from Wednesday through Tuesday each week). In less than 24 hours, it's garnered 10 million audience impressions. As for genre airplay charts (which run from Monday to Sunday), "Skyfall" is already No. 21 on the building Adult Contemporary chart (with slightly more than 100 plays so far), No. 40 on Adult Pop Songs with (about 200) and just below No. 40 on Pop Songs (about 400).

As for sales, it's difficult, at the present, to forecast how well Adele's "Skyfall" will sell by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (Oct. 7). The song went on sale early yesterday evening (after being available as a pre-order since Monday), so we don't yet know what it will sell on its first full day of availability (today).

That said, the song's sales launch last night is tracking well and could point to a start in the range of 200,000 by Sunday night. Of course, that number could fluctuate wildly depending on how the song -- which is currently ranked at No. 1 in the iTunes Store -- will sell over the weekend. 200,000 could end up being a conservative figure, but we'll know more definitively tomorrow, once we have knowledge about the song's Friday sales. We'll also then be able to better gauge where "Skyfall" could debut on the Hot 100. Highlights of the finalized chart will be released Wednesday (Oct. 10) on Billboard's websites.


www.billboard.com/news/psy-one-direction-set-to-headline-digital-1007973362.story?utm_source=most_recent#/news/psy-one-direction-set-to-headline-digital-1007973362.story?utm_source=most_recent

PSY, One Direction Set to Headline Digital Songs Chart Next Week
by Gary Trust, N.Y. and Keith Caulfield, L.A. | October 05, 2012

PSY's "Gangnam Style" is set to battle for No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 next week, while One Direction's "Live Like We're Young" looks set to headline next week's Digital Songs chart.

In the battle between "Style" and Maroon 5's "One More Night" for No. 1 on the Hot 100, here's how each song's sales are tracking at the present. PSY's tune, fueled by its video in which the Korean rapper shows off his horse-like gyrations, could sell in the range of 260,000 to 280,000, as the song has been trending down, so say industry forecasters, for most of the week. Still, the weekend can always throw a wrench into proceedings, and anything is possible. Last week, PSY's cut sold 293,000 downloads, according to SoundScan.

For Maroon 5, its current Hot 100 No. 1 "Night" is on course to sell another 160,000 to 180,000 downloads, according to industry projections. Last week, it moved 181,000.

Maroon 5's deficit in sales compared to PSY was overcome on the current Hot 100 by its large lead in airplay. Last week, "Night" ranked as the No. 2 title on Radio Songs with 116 million audience impressions, according to Nielsen BDS (up 15 million), while "Style" jumped 34-23 with 46 million impressions (up 12 million). After slightly more than two-and-a-half days of the Radio Songs' tracking week, Maroon 5's audience impressions stand at 44 million (up 3 million from the same tracking period a week ago). PSY, however, is at 18 million impressions (up close to 4 million from its week-to-date total last week).

The final wild card is streaming data: "Night" stood at No. 1 in streaming points this past week (807,000 on-demand streams, up 4%, according to BDS), but PSY ranked at No. 2, soaring from No. 9, with the chart's largest streaming gain (up 30% to 799,000), narrowing its overall Hot 100 points deficit with that improvement.

In all, the projected sales totals and continued gains for "Style" indicate that it could dethrone "Night" on the Hot 100 No. 1 next week.

One Direction's "Live While We're Young," meanwhile, is still tracking to start with a sales week of perhaps more than 300,000 and could be the week's top-selling digital song when the Digital Songs chart is finalized on Wednesday (Oct. 10). Label sources indicate that "Live," which hit retail on Monday, started off with incredibly strong sales on its first day, but then tapered off as the week progressed. After its first two days, it settled into a steady, but still strong, sales pattern.

Also vying for the title of the top-selling song of the week is Taylor Swift's "Red" and, as previously noted, Adele's "Skyfall." Swift's single is on course for a start just above 300,000. That sum would nearly mirror the launch of her "Begin Again," which was the second pre-release single from her "Red" album. It started at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart this past week with 299,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

[Deleted]

I wish they'd just like discount Gangnam Style or do some massive promo, but that's doubtful.

[badrobot]

^i did not know they were giving Adele the same ridiculous promotional effort. She will definitely do better than my guess but I don't think she will surpass Taylor.

Honestly I find this disgusting -- payola was a massive scandal years ago and now labels proudly tout how much airplay they've paid for.

[HolidayGuy]

^It's an airplay promo- apparently, it's all legal, otherwise there would be some issues. It's semantics, but this practice isn't regarded as payola.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I am curious to know how this type of promotion and advertising differs from what defines actual "payola". I've seen articles in Billboard but none that have gone into depth comparing both of them and how they differ, or even simply how it all works out. Why is it that one is legal and the other isn't? Has anyone found any articles that go into it at all?

[HolidayGuy]

According to the law, it a station plays music for financial compensation, the station must announce it, and such airplay should not count as "regular airplay."

Not all of this promo airplay comes with disclaimers (sometimes it's just the act itself saying who they are and announcing the single title and other tidbits), and Billboard certainly counts it as regular airplay, so, apparently, not "payola."

[badrobot]

It's exactly the same in practice even if they have finagled some way to skirt by on legal technicalities.

Believe it or not radio used to be a way for new music and new artists to make their careers. Now that is impossible unless you already have a major label backing you. DJs don't set playlists, corporate programmers do. I realize at this point this probably seems like an antiquated complaint but I think the music landscape would be so much better without this commoditization.

I think I'm particularly disappointed in Adele's case because she felt like someone who made it big based more on quality than promo, and this just seems unnecessary for her.

[fridayteenage]

Gangnam Style has been stable at 40% pop bars for the last 8 hours; I think Adele's stopped growing against it.

Interesting, since both 1D and Taylor pushed GS down to 35%.

[HolidayGuy]

But it's not like these promos are long-lasting. For some tracks, they go on to become bonafide hits, while others have lesser chart lives.

[fridayteenage]

We shall see which songs fit in which category later this year.

[HolidayGuy]

^Well, we can say that Taylor Swift's single really is the only one that went on to be a pretty decent-sized airplay hit, among the pop releases. With the newer tracks, yah, too early to tell.

[cesarams]

SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 155.060 (+ 0.668)
2. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 147.107 (+ 2.383)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER – As Long As You Love Me: 126.738 (+ 0.096)
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – We Are Never Ever Getting…: 123.240 (- 1.233)
5. FUN. – Some Nights: 116.966 (+ 1.449)
6. NEON TREES – Everybody Talks: 106.764 (- 1.481)
7. ELLIE GOULDING – Lights: 104.888 (- 1.558)
8. OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Good Time: 101.953 (+ 0.408)
9. KATY PERRY – Wide Awake: 98.873 (- 1.153)
10. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 96.524 (+ 1.887)
11. FLO RIDA – Whistle: 93.262 (- 2.457)
12. CHRIS BROWN – Don’t Wake Me Up: 86.945 (+ 0.815)
13. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 82.142 (- 0.582)
14. NICKI MINAJ – Pound The Alarm: 73.909 (- 1.373)
15. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 72.563 (+ 1.957) ▲
16. DEMI LOVATO – Give Your Heart A Break: 71.186 (- 1.347) ▼
17. MIGUEL – Adorn: 70.395 (+ 0.489)
18. MAROON 5 – Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 66.057 (- 1.353)
19. CARLY RAE JEPSEN – Call Me Maybe: 62.858 (- 1.382) ▲
20. DAVID GUETTA – Titanium f/Sia: 62.742 (- 1.683) ▼

OTHERS:

JASON ALDEAN – Take A Little Ride: 62.435 (- 0.376)
RIHANNA – Where Have You Been: 61.483 (- 0.545)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Blown Away: 59.908 (+ 0.805)
DUSTIN LYNCH – Cowboys And Angels: 59.354 (+ 0.428)
JANA KRAMER – Why Ya Wanna: 57.278 (+ 0.038)
PSY – Gangnam Style: 52.981 (+ 1.375)
TRAIN – 50 Ways To Say Goodbye: 50.148 (+ 0.456)
DAVID GUETTA - I Can Only Imagine f/C. Brown: 45.151 (- 0.238)
KE$HA – Die Young: 43.523 (+ 1.894)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Finally Found You f/S. Adams: 42.680 (+ 0.506)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 42.198 (+ 0.868)
RIHANNA – Diamonds: 39.497 (+ 3.306)
KANYE WEST – Clique f/Big Sean & JAY-Z: 37.413 (+ 0.812)
ONE DIRECTION – Live While We’re Young: 28.218 (+ 0.745)
ONEREPUBLIC – Feel Again: 27.438 (+ 0.210)
USHER – Numb: 27.136 (+ 0.325)
CHRISTINA AGUILERA – Your Body: 25.946 (+ 0.364)
BEYONCE – Dance For You: 25.932 (+ 0.163)
BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 24.951 (+ 3.233)
ADELE – Skyfall: 23.985 (+ 22.555)
ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 18.775 (- 0.086)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 17.253 (+ 0.248)
MUSE – Madness: 13.697 (+ 0.112)
ELLIE GOULDING – Anything Could Happen: 5.687
NICKI MINAJ & CASSIE – The Boys: 1.860
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 0.391

[HolidayGuy]

"Skyfall" had 10.28m from pop, 5.13m from AC and 4.016m from Hot AC. So, it had 4m+ from other formats.

[Deleted]

Oct 5, 2012 21:21:20 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Well, we can say that Taylor Swift's single really is the only one that went on to be a pretty decent-sized airplay hit, among the pop releases. With the newer tracks, yah, too early to tell.

Starships, Part of Me, Born This Way?

[Au$tin]

ADELE – Skyfall: 23.985 (+ 22.555)

Oh.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

To me these deals are totally payola. Pay for play. Artists cant get through because all these deals. If you combine all of them then you have no room for anyone who didnt by the airplay.

[Envoirment]

Oct 6, 2012 9:59:06 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

To me these deals are totally payola. Pay for play. Artists cant get through because all these deals. If you combine all of them then you have no room for anyone who didnt by the airplay.

But it only lasts/affects songs on the day of the deal. Once the deal is over, the song will become a hit if it gets a good reception, if not then it just fades away/doesn't do well ("You Da One"/"Gimme All Your Lovin'")

[HolidayGuy]

Yah- in most cases, these are only one-day shots, so there's no long-lasting impact. The promo for "Give Me All Your Luvin' " went from 9 a.m. on a Friday to around 6 p.m. on that Sunday because of the Super Bowl tie-in.

Codex- I had forgotten about those. Were they all confirmed to have that promo?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Even if it's one day...Imagine if every artist was doing that. Its not a reflection of popularity if radio stations are guaranteeing more airplay than the song otherwise wouldve gotten... Billboard should take these days out of the total airplay TBQH.