cesarams
2x Platinum Member
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Post by cesarams on Oct 10, 2012 10:25:49 GMT -5
Predictions:
1- One More Night
2- Gangnam Style
3- Live While We're Young
4- Some Nights
5- As Long As You Love Me
6- We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
7- Blow Me (One Last Kiss)
8- Red
9- Skyfall
10- Too Close
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Post by p0isonparadise. on Oct 10, 2012 10:35:20 GMT -5
1D sold more than expected. :)
If the Hot 100 was still using its old formula 1D would be #1. :o
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HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
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Post by HolidayGuy on Oct 10, 2012 10:48:38 GMT -5
So, perhaps "One More Night" has a 65 million airplay lead; "Gangnam" has a 90,000 sales lead. And last week, "Night" only had 8,000 more streams than "Gangnam."
Hmmm...
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cesarams
2x Platinum Member
I'll get into your dreams.
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,473
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Post by cesarams on Oct 10, 2012 10:55:43 GMT -5
I still bet on One More Night
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:06:47 GMT -5
116|807|181
046|799|294
-----------
124|820|167
055|900|257
Yeah, even giving PSY a nice streaming advantage; the week is still clearly Maroon 5's.
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dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Oct 10, 2012 11:15:43 GMT -5
Last week OMN had 70m lead on Airplay. This week should be around the same if not more. So that's 110k+ deficit in terms of sales. GS is 90k ahead in sales. So it will need at least 250k lead in streaming to counter the rest of the deficit, which isn't likely.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:18:52 GMT -5
...It is though. ??? I mean, foreign language songs don't become hits here in the US. When was does, it's kind of a big deal. When one hits #1, it's kind of a historical moment. Exactly, the latest one is Macarena in 1996 and the one before that was Rock Me Amadeus (1986) iirc. At least GS and RMA does have lyrics sung in English too though. In 1987 Los Lobos had a #1 hit with "La Bamba" from the movie of the same name about the life of Ritchie Valens. It was sung entirely in Spanish. |
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Oct 10, 2012 11:26:03 GMT -5
The Psy Update, courtesy of Billboard.com: OCTOBER 9: Will PSY crown the Billboard Hot 100 tomorrow? Again, Maroon 5's "One More Night" ranked as the No. 2 track on Radio Songs last week with 116 million audience impressions, according to Nielsen BDS (up 15 million), while PSY's "Gangnam Style" jumped 34-23 with 46 million impressions (up 12 million). After slightly more than six-and-a-half days of the Radio Songs' tracking week, Maroon 5's audience impressions now stand at 113 million (up 8 million from the same period a week ago). PSY is at 50 million impressions (up 9 million from its week-to-date total last week). "Night" ranks at No. 1 on the building Radio Songs chart, while "Style" is No. 17. As previously noted, sales, however, could make the difference in "Style" topping the Hot 100, despite Maroon 5's airplay advantage. "Style" is now forecasted to sell 250,000-260,000 by the end of the sales tracking week and "Night," 160,000-170,000. With PSY's projected sales lead, along with "Style" closing the gap on the lead that "Night" held in on-demand streaming last week, he could be on his way to No. 1 on the Hot 100 with "Style." We find out tomorrow on Billboard.com. Shut the F up, Billboard. If you hadn't taken away power from the people, Psy would probably already be on its 3rd week at no. 1 |
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dlostfan
Charting
Joined: January 2012
Posts: 143
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Post by dlostfan on Oct 10, 2012 11:27:37 GMT -5
1. OMN
2. GS
3. LWWAY
4. SN
5. Red
6-7 Skyfall
6-7 WANEGBT
8 Blow Me
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Rodze
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Posts: 2,546
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Post by Rodze on Oct 10, 2012 11:37:54 GMT -5
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Spidey
Diamond Member
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Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Oct 10, 2012 11:47:22 GMT -5
I can't believe "One More Night" has been been No. 1 for 4 weeks. It really doesn't seem that big...
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:49:42 GMT -5
1. Maroon 5
2. PSY
3. One Direction
4. fun.
5. Taylor Swift (We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together)
6. Taylor Swift (Red)
7. Justin Bieber
8. Adele
9. P!nk
10. Alex Clare
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:50:15 GMT -5
1D sold more than expected. :) If the Hot 100 was still using its old formula 1D would be #1. :o With its old formula, all these Taylor tracks would have had a chance at debuting #1.  |
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Enigma.
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Posts: 14,171
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 10, 2012 11:51:28 GMT -5
Three debuts in top ten? Is that a record of some sort?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:51:43 GMT -5
I can't believe "One More Night" has been been No. 1 for 4 weeks. It really doesn't seem that big... Well, Gangnam Style is now besting it by healthy margins on Digital and Streaming. Sadly Billboard weights Airplay much higher now than in the past; so songs that are massive at radio and solid on the other fronts are simply too massive to overcome early on. |
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Spidey
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Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Oct 10, 2012 11:51:59 GMT -5
1D sold more than expected. :) If the Hot 100 was still using its old formula 1D would be #1. :o With its old formula, all these Taylor tracks would have had a chance at debuting #1. Nah, the digital only singles don't have the airplay to support a No. 1 debut. They'd all be debuting in the Top 5 with ease though. |
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Spidey
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Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Oct 10, 2012 11:53:55 GMT -5
I can't believe "One More Night" has been been No. 1 for 4 weeks. It really doesn't seem that big... Well, Gangnam Style is now besting it by healthy margins on Digital and Streaming. Sadly Billboard weights Airplay much higher now than in the past; so songs that are massive at radio and solid on the other fronts are simply too massive to overcome early on. Yeah, I have noticed that. Airplay is weighted too much. I just want "Gangnam Style" to reach No. 1 already so the Billboard love affair can stop. I'm tired of the constant "Gangnam Style" talk on their website. |
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Post by josh on Oct 10, 2012 11:55:44 GMT -5
I can't believe "One More Night" has been been No. 1 for 4 weeks. It really doesn't seem that big... Well, Gangnam Style is now besting it by healthy margins on Digital and Streaming. Sadly Billboard weights Airplay much higher now than in the past; so songs that are massive at radio and solid on the other fronts are simply too massive to overcome early on. Luckily there's barely any room to grow on pop, and not much room on HAC either for OMN to keep growing. Airplay is going to slow down real soon. |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 11:59:40 GMT -5
With its old formula, all these Taylor tracks would have had a chance at debuting #1. Nah, the digital only singles don't have the airplay to support a No. 1 debut. They'd all be debuting in the Top 5 with ease though. Gangnam Style: 257 + 43 = 300 One More Night: 167 + 115 = 282 Red : 312 + 0 = 312 One Direction: 341 + 22 = 363 I don't know about last weeks numbers, and One Direction obviously would have beaten her this week, but with the old formula I think "I Knew You Were trouble" would be an easy #1 debut if it sells as much as Red (which it seems to be). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 12:04:02 GMT -5
^I feel it's better to look at things not as "what would be #1 with the old formula" as more as "what would be #1 if they incorporated streaming without changing the weight for airplay". Streaming was definitely something that needed to be added and thus would help prevent things like promo singles being #1; but the weighting for airplay is too high.
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
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Posts: 14,171
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 10, 2012 12:16:33 GMT -5
Indeed. Streaming is here to stay (until proven otherwise) so it must be included.
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peterca
Charting
Joined: August 2010
Posts: 313
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Post by peterca on Oct 10, 2012 13:03:05 GMT -5
Maroon 5 Keeps PSY Out Of Hot 100's Summit Again
For a third week, Maroon 5's 'One More Night' and PSY's viral smash 'Gangnam Style 'rank at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively
Well, look on the bright side, PSY: it's getting a bit chilly outside to go shirtless, anyway.
While the Korean rapper has vowed to perform "Gangnam Style" "topless in a place where everyone can watch" should the song top the Billboard Hot 100, Maroon 5 again prevents his revealing revelry, as "One More Night" spends a fourth week at No. 1. PSY's smash, buoyed by the song's buzz-worthy video in which he shows off his horse-mimicking moves, holds at No. 2 for a third frame.
Again, the race was extremely close. Last week, "Night" bested "Style" by fewer than 500 overall chart points, the smallest difference between Nos. 1 and 2 since the Feb. 18 chart. This week, just 700 points separate the songs, as "Night" gains by less than 1% in overall points and "Style" declines by 1%.
On Hot 100 component charts, each song boasts a new No. 1 ranking: "Night" rises to the top of Radio Songs and "Style" does the same on On-Demand Songs.
Though the gap has narrowed at radio between the two songs, as "Style" gains 1.6 million more audience impressions than "Night," Maroon 5 remains atop the Hot 100 largely thanks to its wide lead in radio airplay. "Night" climbs 2-1 in its 11th week on the Radio Songs chart with a 7% increase to 125 million all-format audience impressions, according to Nielsen BDS. After never leading Radio Songs before last year, Maroon 5 has now done so with its last three singles. Prior to "Night," "Moves Like Jagger," featuring Christina Aguilera, ruled for seven weeks beginning last October and "Payphone," featuring Wiz Khalifa, reigned for six weeks beginning in July.
The radio life of "Style" is still in its earlier stages, so it doesn't sport the massive audience level of "Night." Still, "Style" surges by 22% to 56 million, bounding 23-16 on Radio Songs.
The radio advantage of "Night" is enough to keep it at No. 1 on the Hot 100 despite "Style" leading in streaming and sales. On On-Demand Songs, "Style" charges 2-1 with a 28% gain to 1 million on-demand streams, according to BDS. "Night," meanwhile, recedes 1-4 on On-Demand Songs although with a 1% increase to 816,000 (its highest weekly total yet).
On the Digital Songs chart, "Style" slips 2-4 with a 13% decline to 257,000 downloads sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan, and "Night" falls 4-5 with an 8% decrease to 167,000. Another honor for PSY: With its latest sales frame, "Style" passes 1 million in downloads sold to date.
While PSY keeps his shirt on for another week, "Style" and "Night" appear headed for a battle for the summit again next week, given the continued close chart race. If "Style" can close the gap enough on the large airplay lead of "Night," and if it can widen its lead enough over "Night" in streaming, it could be in line for No. 1 on the Hot 100 next week.
Below the drama of the Hot 100's top two titles, other notable action abounds, as three songs blast onto the chart in the top 10. One Direction debuts at No. 3 with "Live Like We're Young," which launches atop Digital Songs with 341,000 first-week downloads sold. It climbs 57-52 (25 million, up 14%) in its second week on Radio Songs, fueled by a 23-21 advance on Pop Songs.
Taylor Swift's "Red," the title cut from her fourth album, due Oct. 22, storms the Hot 100 at No. 6 as it enters Digital Songs at No. 2 (312,000). It's her record-extending 10th top 10 debut on the Hot 100 and already the album's third top 10. Lead radio single "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" (down 4-5 this week) spent three weeks at No. 1 and "Begin Again" opened last week at No. 7 (and plunges to No. 52 this week). Another "Red" preview song will impact the Hot 100 next week: the pop-friendly, and even dubstep-influenced, "I Knew You Were Trouble" currently ranks at No. 1 in the iTunes Store.
The Hot 100's third top 10 debut belongs to Adele, whose "Skyfall," the title song from the forthcoming 23rd James Bond film, enters at No. 8, marking her first top 10 beginning. The song starts at No. 3 on Digital Songs with 261,000 (after being released to digital retailers Thursday (Oct. 4) night) and arrives on Radio Songs at No. 49 (26 million in its first five-and-a-half days of availability).
Thanks to "Live," "Red" and "Skyfall," the Digital Songs chart welcomes three debuts in the top three for the first time. The Hot 100 harbors three top 10 debuts for just the second time in its 54-year history; the week of March 3, Katy Perry's "Part of Me" bowed at No. 1, followed by Nicki Minaj's "Starships" (No. 9) and Chris Brown's "Turn Up the Music."
As for the rest of the Hot 100's top 10, fun.'s "Some Nights" backtracks 3-4; Justin Bieber's "As Long as You Love Me," featuring Big Sean, regresses 6-7; P!nk's "Blow Me (One Last Kiss)" dips 5-9; and, Alex Clare's "Too Close" descends 9-10.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Oct 10, 2012 13:09:21 GMT -5
Here's is the top 10 with the old formula.
# / artist / song / points
1. One Direction - Live While We're Young: 363
2. Taylor Swift - Red: 312
3. PSY - Gangnam Style: 300
4. Adele - Skyfall: 284
5. Maroon 5 - One More Night: 282
6. Taylor Swift - We Are Never Getting Back Together: 254
7. Fun. - Some Nights: 236
8. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 230
9. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me: 216
10. Alex Clare - Too Close: 205
Other songs:
Ke$ha - Die Young: 185
Flo Rida - Whistle: 163
Rihanna - Diamonds: 155
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Post by josh on Oct 10, 2012 13:11:05 GMT -5
Ke$ha would have been top 10, given she has over 50 million Mediabase AI, she definitely would have the 20 to tie Alex, plus probably 15 more.
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Oct 10, 2012 13:11:36 GMT -5
3 Top 10 debuts! We haven't had a week like this since Part of Me + Starships + Turn Up The Music!
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Spidey
Diamond Member
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Posts: 16,685
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Post by Spidey on Oct 10, 2012 13:19:07 GMT -5
3 Top 10 debuts! We haven't had a week like this since Part of Me + Starships + Turn Up The Music! This week is more impressive IMO because on-demand streaming was not a part of the Hot 100 formula then. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Oct 10, 2012 13:20:44 GMT -5
Ke$ha would have been top 10, given she has over 50 million Mediabase AI, she definitely would have the 20 to tie Alex, plus probably 15 more. I know that she had that amount of Mediabase AI. Her sales just would be to low to reach the top 10. It would be #11 or #12 |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Oct 10, 2012 13:21:07 GMT -5
I will start a thread with other weeks from the chart
with the old formula
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Post by ga68153 on Oct 10, 2012 13:25:05 GMT -5
UGH if Psy peaks at #2 I will be devastated!
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 13:32:12 GMT -5
3 Top 10 debuts! We haven't had a week like this since Part of Me + Starships + Turn Up The Music! This week is more impressive IMO because on-demand streaming was not a part of the Hot 100 formula then. And the fact that the debuts were higher. |
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