Billboard Hot 100: 01/19/13

[cesarams]

This formula is real. I did this with last week numbers:

*= estimate

Locked Out of Heaven: 497000/12 + 140000000/7500 + 1030000/150 + 250000*/300= 41416,67 + 18666,67 + 6866,67 + 833,33= 67783,34
I Knew You Were Trouble: 582000/12 + 67000000/7500 + 0/150 + 250000*/300= 48500 + 8933,33 + 0 + 833,33= 58266,66

These figures are rounded and passive stream it's my personal estimation. The difference was almost 10000 chart points. The last Hot 100's Billboard article said that the difference was around 10000 chart points between both songs. So I think we finally have the formula.

[Lozzy]

Jan 7, 2013 21:19:00 GMT -5 cesarams said:

I think we finally have the formula.

[lugus15]

OMG, I do think that's the formula!!!

I did the test with those 2 weeks (of last year) where the positions were extremely close:

1. The week of Boyfriend debut at #2.

1. WAY: 30,250 + 13,866.67 + 7,866.67 = 51,983.33
2. Boyfriend: 43,416.66 + 5,333.33 + 0 = 48,750

2. The week were WMYB was #4, behind GYC which was #3.

1. WAY: 32,500 + 16,000 + 7,333.33 = 55,833.33
2. STIUTK: 25,916.67 + 8,133,33 + 6,666.67 = 40,716.67
3. GYC: 17,416.67 + 14,133.33 + 4,400 = 35,950
4. WMYB: 24,500 + 5,600 + 4,073.33 = 34,173.33
5. B: 24,583.33 + 7200 + 1,906.67 = 33,689.99

And it fits!!!!

[kml567]

Jan 7, 2013 17:06:33 GMT -5 jj99$ - - LeLe said:

So if im reading this correctly Airplay and Sales are weighted equally after all.

so 200k sales = 200M AI

Not true. I did the math based on the formula written in that article.

200k sales = 125 M AI

Here's my math calculations:
200k sales/12 = 16,666 points
125 M AI/7500 = 16,666 points

Therefore, 200k sales = 125 M AI now. Sales and Airplay are NOT weighted equally.

[Deleted]

That's an 8:5 ratio... meaning airplay is weighed near double of what it used to be.....

[jasontoralba]

well... It's not far from the pulse formula estimation...

10 M AI * 1.5 = 15 points
15 K = 15 Points

15:10 = Pulse
16:10 = Billboard

:) :) :)

[vantiboy3]

Jan 7, 2013 21:19:00 GMT -5 cesarams said:

This formula is real. I did this with last week numbers:

*= estimate

Locked Out of Heaven: 497000/12 + 140000000/7500 + 1030000/150 + 250000*/300= 41416,67 + 18666,67 + 6866,67 + 833,33= 67783,34
I Knew You Were Trouble: 582000/12 + 67000000/7500 + 0/150 + 250000*/300= 48500 + 8933,33 + 0 + 833,33= 58266,66

These figures are rounded and passive stream it's my personal estimation. The difference was almost 10000 chart points. The last Hot 100's Billboard article said that the difference was around 10000 chart points between both songs. So I think we finally have the formula.

give this dude a Bells!

But question: What are the 4 components of the formula? Sales, Airplay, Streaming and?

[Lozzy]

Jan 8, 2013 3:00:57 GMT -5 vantiboy3 said:

Jan 7, 2013 21:19:00 GMT -5 cesarams said:

This formula is real. I did this with last week numbers:

*= estimate

Locked Out of Heaven: 497000/12 + 140000000/7500 + 1030000/150 + 250000*/300= 41416,67 + 18666,67 + 6866,67 + 833,33= 67783,34
I Knew You Were Trouble: 582000/12 + 67000000/7500 + 0/150 + 250000*/300= 48500 + 8933,33 + 0 + 833,33= 58266,66

These figures are rounded and passive stream it's my personal estimation. The difference was almost 10000 chart points. The last Hot 100's Billboard article said that the difference was around 10000 chart points between both songs. So I think we finally have the formula.

give this dude a Bells!

But question: What are the 4 components of the formula? Sales, Airplay, Streaming and?

Sales, airplay, on-demand streaming and passive streaming.

(On-demand streaming being services like Spotify where you actively choose what you listen to. Passive streaming includes services like Pandora that recommend music for you and make your own personal radio station or whatever. On-demand streaming is weighted higher for obvious reasons.)

[vantiboy3]

Thank You.
Now i understand the chart better, and also appreciate how position ranks are allocated.

[cesarams]

TUESDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 205.998 (+ 4.415)
2. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 179.276 (+ 1.903)
3. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 160.149 (+ 4.157)
4. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 142.833 (+ 1.347)
5. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 128.024 (+ 2.990)
6. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 114.532 (+ 1.166)
7. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 113.551 (+ 3.237)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 108.111 (+ 4.707) ▲
9. PINK – Try: 104.441 (+ 1.823) ▲
10. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 102.689 (- 0.871) ▼
11. FUN. – Some Nights: 95.532 (- 0.467)
12. KE$HA – Die Young: 94.901 (+ 0.685)
13. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 93.750 (+ 1.312)
14. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 86.232 (+ 1.866)
15. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 84.571 (+ 1.606)
16. MIGUEL – Adorn: 75.939 (+ 1.037)
17. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 70.719 (- 1.028)
18. ZAC BROWN BAND – Goodbye In Her Eyes: 64.471 (+ 0.550) ▲
19. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 64.432 (- 0.027) ▼
20. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 61.582 (- 1.070)

OTHERS:

IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 61.363 (+ 0.690)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Swimming Pools (Drank): 61.129 (+ 1.861)
WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 61.128 (+ 2.069)
PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 61.003 (+ 0.808)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 59.758 (+ 0.754)
KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 57.847 (+ 1.212)
JUSTIN MOORE – 'Til My Last Day: 56.634 (- 0.900)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 52.725 (+ 0.897)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 48.592 (+ 1.061)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 45.769 (+ 2.119)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 42.964 (+ 0.605)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 39.708 (+ 0.181)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 36.689 (+ 0.982)
KE$HA – C'mon: 35.841 (+ 2.444)
THE SCRIPT – Hall Of Fame f/will.i.am: 33.668 (+ 0.241)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 31.988 (+ 1.324)
MUSE – Madness: 24.207 (- 0.156)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 16.644 (+ 0.133)
FUN. – Carry On: 12.359 (+ 0.158)
TAMAR BRAXTON – Love And War: 8.338
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.195 (+ 0.167)

[hitseeker.]

[Rhythm Nation]

Can you continue to include Begin Again please - I think it's still gaining?

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

This is Yesterdays Begin Again Update.

46 +3 TAYLOR SWIFT Begin Again 42.465 (+1.633)

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

Jan 8, 2013 6:57:58 GMT -5 cesarams said:

TUESDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 205.998 (+ 4.415)
2. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 179.276 (+ 1.903)
3. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 160.149 (+ 4.157)
4. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 142.833 (+ 1.347)
5. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 128.024 (+ 2.990)
6. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 114.532 (+ 1.166)
7. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 113.551 (+ 3.237)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 108.111 (+ 4.707) ▲
9. PINK – Try: 104.441 (+ 1.823) ▲
10. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 102.689 (- 0.871) ▼
11. FUN. – Some Nights: 95.532 (- 0.467)
12. KE$HA – Die Young: 94.901 (+ 0.685)
13. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 93.750 (+ 1.312)
14. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 86.232 (+ 1.866)
15. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 84.571 (+ 1.606)
16. MIGUEL – Adorn: 75.939 (+ 1.037)
17. ALEX CLARE – Too Close: 70.719 (- 1.028)
18. ZAC BROWN BAND – Goodbye In Her Eyes: 64.471 (+ 0.550) ▲
19. PINK – Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 64.432 (- 0.027) ▼
20. GOTYE – Somebody That I Used To Know: 61.582 (- 1.070)

OTHERS:

IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 61.363 (+ 0.690)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Swimming Pools (Drank): 61.129 (+ 1.861)
WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 61.128 (+ 2.069)
PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 61.003 (+ 0.808)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 59.758 (+ 0.754)
KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 57.847 (+ 1.212)
JUSTIN MOORE – 'Til My Last Day: 56.634 (- 0.900)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 52.725 (+ 0.897)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 48.592 (+ 1.061)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 45.769 (+ 2.119)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 42.964 (+ 0.605)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 39.708 (+ 0.181)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 36.689 (+ 0.982)
KE$HA – C'mon: 35.841 (+ 2.444)
THE SCRIPT – Hall Of Fame f/will.i.am: 33.668 (+ 0.241)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 31.988 (+ 1.324)
MUSE – Madness: 24.207 (- 0.156)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 16.644 (+ 0.133)
FUN. – Carry On: 12.359 (+ 0.158)
TAMAR BRAXTON – Love And War: 8.338
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.195 (+ 0.167)

Hopefully Britney will(i.am) leap into the top 20 tomorrow.

[Rhythm Nation]

Thank you!!

[areyoureadytojump]

What is the official 2nd single for Rihanna?

[Deleted]

I don't think anything has been said officially, but Pour It Up is exploding on Urban so I'm sure they'll release it. Right Now is under CNM for Pop but it's not official yet.

[Envoirment]

Things will start going back to normal now. Which I'm glad about as a bunch of songs I like can start climbing well once again!

[SPRΞΞ]

Jan 8, 2013 10:24:55 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

What is the official 2nd single for Rihanna?

About 4 or 5 songs.

[Joe1240]

Taylor's song "The Moment I Knew" is on Itunes.It is a Bonus track from Red. This may have a chance at debuting on the Billboard Hot 100 this week :)

[Agent Yoncé]

OHMYLORDT! Bruno is still gaining?! :o

[nivekwriter1]

Other airplay updates (1/8/2012)
Most are from Kworb and a few from Mediabase

GARY ALLAN - Every Storm (Runs...: 51.438 (+ 1.105)
JASON ALDEAN - The Only Way I Kn...: 50.113 (+ 1.519)
A$AP ROCKY - F**kin Problems f...: 41.973 (+ 1.609)
LUDACRIS F/USHER/... - Rest of My Life: 39.190 (+ 0.955)
HUNTER HAYES - Somebody's Heartbrea...: 34.989 (+ 0.429)
JONN HART - Who Booty f/iamSU: 34.349 (+ 0.543)
FAITH HILL - American Heart: 14.172 (+ 0.320)
ALICIA KEYS - Brand New Me: 10.683 (+ 0.904)
TRAIN - Mermaid: 7.988 (+ 0.238)
IMAGINE DRAGONS - Radioactive: 7.306 (+ 0.210)
BLAKE SHELTON - Sure Be Cool If Y...:8.063 (+ 1.891)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - This Kiss: 2.197 (- 0.571)

[dlostfan]

I have been using this formula for rankings:

Sales*0.625 + Airplay*1 + Stream*0.05

So it's basically the same as what we got today.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=gmn&action=display&thread=113279&page=4

At that time with 10 weeks data, I had the sales ratio as 0.65 but dropped it down a notch afterwards to satisfy data from later weeks.

[Deleted]

Retro Top 10's for this week

New Years week isn't exactly the most exciting week... except if its 1997


1 year ago (1/21/12)

1 2 We Found Love - Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris (9th week of 10 @ #1)
2 1 Sexy And I Know It - LMFAO
3 4 It Will Rain - Bruno Mars
4 8 Set Fire To The Rain - Adele
5 5 Good Feeling - Flo Rida
6 3 The One That Got Away - Katy Perry
7 7 Ni**as In Paris - Jay-Z & Kanye West
8 - I Won't Give Up - Jason Mraz
9 6 Party Rock Anthem - LMFAO ft. Lauren Bennett & GoonRock
10 9 Someone Like You - Adele


5 years ago (1/19/08)

1 1 Low - Flo Rida ft. T-Pain (3rd week of 10 @ #1)
2 2 No One - Alicia Keys
3 3 Apologize - Timbaland & OneRepublic
4 4 Kiss Kiss - Chris Brown ft. T-Pain
5 6 Clumsy - Fergie
6 7 Bubbly - Colbie Caillat
7 8 Paralyzer - Finger Eleven
8 10 Tattoo - Jordin Sparks
9 9 Love Song - Sara Bareilles
10 5 Crank That (Soulja Boy) - Soulja Boy


10 years ago (1/18/03)

1 1 Lose Yourself - Eminem (11th week of 12 @ #1)
2 2 Work It - Missy Elliot..... final week @ #2
3 3 Air Force Ones - Nelly ft. Kyjuan, Ali & Murphy Lee
4 5 Bump, Bump, Bump - B2K ft. P Diddy
5 4 '03 Bonnie & Clyde - Jay-Z ft. Beyonce
6 7 Beautiful - Christina Aguilera
7 6 Jenny From The Block - Jennifer Lopez ft. Jadakiss & Styles
8 8 Don't Mess With My Man - Nivea ft. Brian & Brandon Casey
9 10 Landslide - Dixie Chicks
10 9 The Game Of Love - Santana ft. Michelle Branch


15 years ago (1/17/98)

1 6 Truly Madly Deeply - Savage Garden (1st week of 2 @ #1)
2 3 Together Again - Janet
3 1 Something About The Way You Look Tonight / Candle In The Wind 1997 - Elton John
4 5 How Do I Live - LeAnn Rimes
5 2 Been Around The World - Puff Daddy & The Family ft. Notorious B.I.G. & Mase
6 4 My Body - LSG
7 9 You Make Me Wanna... - Usher
8 14 Tubthumping - Chumbawumba
9 10 Show Me Love - Robyn
10 7 Feel So Good - Mase

+ of course
11 17 I Don't Want To Wait - Paula Cole


Hot 100 Airplay from 15 years ago

1 1 Tubthumping - Chumbawumba (8th week of 9 @ #1)
2 2 Fly - Sugar Ray
3 3 Walkin' On The Sun - Smash Mouth
4 4 You Make Me Wanna... - Usher
5 6 I Don't Want To Wait - Paula Cole

[Caviar]

I remember all the songs on the 1/18/03 chart. "The Game of Love" was such an epic masterpiece.

[wavey.]

3 3 Air Force Ones - Nelly ft. Kyjuan, Ali & Murphy Lee-BOMB
2 3 Together Again - Janet-This was sad, but good.

[kingofpain]

3 3 Air Force Ones - Nelly ft. Kyjuan, Ali & Murphy Lee
4 5 Bump, Bump, Bump - B2K ft. P Diddy

I don't even remember these two! Do they still get recurrent airplay today?

[Eqbk]

So if someone goes and listens to a radio station online (ie. going on Z100's website and stream the station on their site), does that count towards radio airplay or radio streaming? I get that you are streaming online but it's not exactly like Pandora where it's catered to your tastes. It's just listening to radio station online.

[josh]

I would think that would be something Z100 monitors, and then when their audience numbers get adjusted, the number of online listeners they typically get would count towards their audience numbers. But that's just my guess, no proof or anything.

[Au$tin]

Jan 8, 2013 11:11:04 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Jan 8, 2013 10:24:55 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

What is the official 2nd single for Rihanna?

About 4 or 5 songs.

What's sad is that is not far from the truth.

Official:
Stay - UK
Right Now - US pop

Unofficial, but getting lots of airplay for some reason:
Nobody's Business
Pour It Up
Loveeeeeee Song
All on urban and rhythmic.