Billboard Hot 100: 03/09/13

[lugus15]

Feb 27, 2013 19:47:50 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Feb 27, 2013 19:34:29 GMT -5 lugus15 said:

Most people don't follow the BB charts, as shown by HS decreasing in Youtube views in spite of the BB announcement of last week.

I find this sentence funny. People don't attack their favorite songs on YouTube just because Billboard now counts the views for it. Well, some do, but a multitude more do not. The general public probably doesn't even know that "Harlem Shake" is even #1.

That's what I meant. Probably not expressed it right (English is not my first language).

What I meant is that even tho BB made a huge announcement of HS being #1 thanks to the youtube views, one would think that that would have made the general public search the song more on youtube, which it didn't, as shown by the 5% decrease.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Go Billboard! They are awesome accept for their abysmal website.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

It's only fair that Youtube plays count especially if they are generating income for record labels both directly and indirectly. Ahh... tomorrow going to meet with the company that owns YouTube to see what they have to offer.

[Deleted]

Feb 27, 2013 20:11:20 GMT -5 lugus15 said:

Feb 27, 2013 19:47:50 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I find this sentence funny. People don't attack their favorite songs on YouTube just because Billboard now counts the views for it. Well, some do, but a multitude more do not. The general public probably doesn't even know that "Harlem Shake" is even #1.

That's what I meant. Probably not expressed it right (English is not my first language).

What I meant is that even tho BB made a huge announcement of HS being #1 thanks to the youtube views, one would think that that would have made the general public search the song more on youtube, which it didn't, as shown by the 5% decrease.

LOL - this would tell me that no one cares what Billboard did.

5% is a natural decline because another week passed since it went viral

[Rodze]

Feb 27, 2013 15:45:07 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

So much for 103 million streams in a week being an aberration. A couple more weeks like the last two and "Harlem Shake" will be the #1 song of 2013, even though "Thrift Shop" continues to dominate on the other 3 components.

Yep, the 30s thing is beyond retarded. It must be stopped.

Every time I hum a song's chorus in my head I'll write it down and send to Billboard so they can put it in the Hot 100.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Feb 27, 2013 17:50:54 GMT -5 jebsib said:

LOL that the Hot 100 will go by the wayside! You mean like it did in 1972, when labels revolted against it? Or 1996 when half of all radio hit songs were ineligible to chart? Or 2004 when it was a surprise to find even two pop/rock songs in the top 15? Nah. It's evolving with the times. Otherwise it would still be counting jukebox plays.

Well the chart was pretty much irrelevant between 1995-1998. I have zero problem with Streaming - however, the weight seems out of place. I still think TV airings of songs - like when an artist sings on AI or wherever should count, same with videos. Those are all reaches that are just as valid as radio play.

It does seem odd that HS is almost certainly going to be 2013's #1 song - it will have the sales component, but the fact that streaming causes a 3.5x boost over the #2 song which is strong on all three components is odd - especially since it's snippets that are causing the rise. Does BB count a 30 second snippet of a song on the radio? (I don't know the answer to that.)

[Deleted]

Something worth pointing out: if you reversed HS's streaming points with its AI (i.e. the large number would be attributed to airplay and the smaller number would be the amount of streams it got), it would look like any other normal big hit on the chart - to be specific it would be sandwiched between Macklemore and Bruno at #2 on all components. That more than anything emphasizes how off the streaming/YT weight is, IMO. It should be weighted more than AI in my ideal formula, but not to such an extreme.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Feb 27, 2013 16:44:25 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I posted about how "Stay" felt too high last week because of the new formula, but everyone was focused on "Harlem Shake." Exclude the fact that "Harlem Shake" is an anomaly, and you still have "Stay" rocketing to 3 one week, and tumbling to 7 the next. Eh... just doesn't sit right with me. I know it was likely to fall this week because of the absolutely normal and predictable sales decline, but it's clear that it's decline on YouTube is much more harsher than digitally, and I'm afraid most songs by high-profile artists are going to see that happen to them. It kind of seems like "Stay"'s popularity was exaggerated last week. This is why I still think the formula needs tinkering. "Stay" should not have been top three last week. And in the coming weeks, "All Around the World"'s music video will give us the same result.

What about those first-week sales periods for highly anticipated new singles that get a ton of sales in its first week resulting in a high debut only to fall a lot the next week and take weeks or months to get back to its debut week - if it ever does?

This is just something new to get used to. It's not like us chart watchers haven't had to experience these new changes and get used to them before.

[Au$tin]

Feb 27, 2013 21:33:12 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Feb 27, 2013 16:44:25 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I posted about how "Stay" felt too high last week because of the new formula, but everyone was focused on "Harlem Shake." Exclude the fact that "Harlem Shake" is an anomaly, and you still have "Stay" rocketing to 3 one week, and tumbling to 7 the next. Eh... just doesn't sit right with me. I know it was likely to fall this week because of the absolutely normal and predictable sales decline, but it's clear that it's decline on YouTube is much more harsher than digitally, and I'm afraid most songs by high-profile artists are going to see that happen to them. It kind of seems like "Stay"'s popularity was exaggerated last week. This is why I still think the formula needs tinkering. "Stay" should not have been top three last week. And in the coming weeks, "All Around the World"'s music video will give us the same result.

What about those first-week sales periods for highly anticipated new singles that get a ton of sales in its first week resulting in a high debut only to fall a lot the next week and take weeks or months to get back to its debut week - if it ever does?

This is just something new to get used to. It's not like us chart watchers haven't had to experience these new changes and get used to them before.

I've already stated how those feel different to me.

[Deleted]

I agree with Cynthia. The youtube weighting is pretty extreme. 3.5x the points of a HUGE #1 like Thrift Shop for 2 weeks? That's like having 7 big weeks at #1 already (Thrift Shop isn't too far away from the normal [glass] ceiling for a #1 song.) and that just won't feel right when looking at the year-end chart. The song may be accurately represented on the weekly charts, but because of the massive margin it is gaining right now, it will look out of place on the year-end charts. Which reflects that the formula needs some fine tuning on the youtube component to bring it down.

[kingofpain]

It is extreme when they allow 30 second clips. I actually wouldn't care less if it were the entire song, but why on earth would Billboard allow a "30 second" clip to represent the entire song? What's even more bizarre is that the amount of points allowed for YouTube far outweighs more legitimate components like airplay, sales and hell, even streaming. A 30 second clip shouldn't give weight to anything - it probably even speaks volumes that people can only take the "song" in 30 second doses or less.

Billboard puts a cap on the price of an album within the timeframe of its debut to make it legitimate for charting... yet it allows 30 second clips to represent an entire song? What BS... what's next, anyone who "previews" a song on itunes for 30 seconds before deciding whether to purchase it will bear weight on its chart position on the Hot 100? What a joke.

[Deleted]

The 30 second clip is responsible for popularizing the song. The 3 minute version did nothing

[KeepDeanWeird]

Feb 27, 2013 23:34:23 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

Billboard puts a cap on the price of an album within the timeframe of its debut to make it legitimate for charting... yet it allows 30 second clips to represent an entire song? What BS... what's next, anyone who "previews" a song on itunes for 30 seconds before deciding whether to purchase it will bear weight on its chart position on the Hot 100? What a joke.

Actually iTunes up previews to 1:30 - Amazon is still 30 sec. So why not include all those previews? If someone "previews" HS on iTunes or Amazon, how is that different than the 30 second YouTube click? It's not, the user is still directing the choice, it's just a different avenue for hearing the music.

[Deleted]

Feb 28, 2013 0:04:57 GMT -5 @2m said:

The 30 second clip is responsible for popularizing the song. The 3 minute version did nothing

Yep. Hence the reason (some) people have problems with the 30 second videos being counted.

The song is pretty much a loop with some dynamic variations in certain spots, but someone only hearing 30 seconds of it either doesn't know that (as would also be the case with any kind of song preview) or doesn't care to sit through the whole song. It's not like it's the only musically repetitive song to ever exist so that isn't much of an excuse for letting a snippet count. But whatever *shrug* get that Youtube money, Baauer.

[imbondz]

I don't have an issue with including Youtube, I have a huge issue allowing 30 second samples. If 5 years ago I said iTunes should count when we listen to the 30 second sample on the charts, this place would have had a conniption fit. Or, how about back in the 90's when listening stations at Record Stores were big, and everytime we listened to a cd at a station, it counted as airplay towards the chart. Same thing. It's RETARDED.

On another topic, whoever designed Billboards new site should be fired.

k, that's all. I feel better now.

[imbondz]

Feb 28, 2013 0:04:57 GMT -5 @2m said:

The 30 second clip is responsible for popularizing the song. The 3 minute version did nothing

that's why the huge sales at iTunes and amazon count towards it's chart points. the 30 second clip is a marketing tool, and shouldn't be included in chart points.

[imbondz]

why is 30 seconds the cutoff? What if a song is 2 minutes long, why wouldn't 15-20 seconds of listening to it count.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I don't get how it's retarded... but whatever.

I think the :30 second samples thing should be included from iTunes. At least I don't think it shouldn't NOT be included. I don't think many people listen to them as leisure the way most YouTube videos are watched but a stream is a stream so I wouldn't object.

I still think the YouTube streaming thing is being blown out of proportion. I asked in another topic if anyone knew of approximate numbers of what the typical Top 10 or Top 20 most viewed videos in a given week are. I feel like even 10 million views in a week for a video is pretty high therefore making Harlem Shake a MASSIVE anomaly. It just looks like YT is being counted too much because of this one extreme case but I can't see a video receiving 1 or 2 million plays accounting for much change.

I don't disagree with the issue many have of the 30 second video being counted. If Billboard decided not to count it after the response for whatever reason, I wouldn't personally disagree with them. But realistically, Harlem Shake is a popular song right now BECAUSE of those 30 second clips. I think at best, Billboard could count them for less than what a full audio/video clip would.

Otherwise, I still feel like a lot of people take issue with the whole thing because it's such a drastic change. The Hot 100 changes its methodology often because how music is digested changes often. Don't blame them for trying to keep up with technology. If anything, these changes should be more welcome because otherwise, we'd still be relying on CD singles to determine the biggest hits. Their methodology could use tinkering but I think the whole thing is blown way out of proportion.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

I would like to reiterate how unusual the margin of victory of 3.5 times is. Since the introduction of Soundscan and BDS in 1991, it has likely happened only three times (October 11th, 18th and 25th, 1997). Billboard has always stated that its' reason for modifying the formula is to maintairn radio airplay's historical influence on the HOT100 (around 40-45%). Yet when they introduced YouTube video streaming, past precedent seemed to be thrown out the window.

If "Harlem Shake" had achieved its' point differential via digital sales instead of YouTube streaming, it would have had to sell over 2 million downloads in a week! That is a level of sales that has never been achieved and may not be for many years to come.

I can only surmise that when Billboard was running the test charts they were using the "Gangnam Style" experience as the most extreme example of a video going viral, and have been taken completely by surprise at the # of streams a video can achieve if one includes 30 second clips that have authorized use of the song.

To summarize my thoughts on including YouTube videos, good idea, but questionable execution.

[Rodze]

Yep 30s is great.

Radio should just play 30s of songs in fact, then the no. 1 song on the country would have 700 million AI.

[Deleted]

Hot 100 Youtube Style


This Week Last Week Two Weeks Ago Weeks Title, Artist Peak
1 1 – 2 #1 2 wksHarlem Shake, Baauer 1
2 2 1 21 Thrift Shop, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis Featuring Wanz 1
3 8 9 10 When I Was Your Man, Bruno Mars 3
4 5 5 19 I Knew You Were Trouble., Taylor Swift 2
5 4 3 13 Scream & Shout, will.i.am & Britney Spears 3
6 10 63 3 Started From The Bottom, Drake 6
7 3 57 3 Stay, Rihanna Featuring Mikky Ekko 3
8 9 8 7 Suit & Tie, Justin Timberlake Featuring Jay Z 4
9 7 2 21 Locked Out Of Heaven, Bruno Mars 1
10 19 23 6 Love Me, Lil Wayne Featuring Drake & Future 10
11 6 4 38 Ho Hey, The Lumineers 3
12 11 6 23 Don't You Worry Child, Swedish House Mafia Featuring John Martin 6
13 45 – 2 One Way Or Another (Teenage Kicks), One Direction 13
14 13 7 12 Daylight, Maroon 5 7
15 15 11 17 F**kin Problems, A$AP Rocky Featuring Drake, 2 Chainz & Kendrick Lamar 8
16 14 12 25 Girl On Fire, Alicia Keys Featuring Nicki Minaj 11
17 17 14 16 Sweet Nothing, Calvin Harris Featuring Florence Welch 10
18 16 10 20 Beauty And A Beat, Justin Bieber Featuring Nicki Minaj 5
19 12 15 29 I Will Wait, Mumford & Sons 12
20 18 13 18 Try, P!nk 9
21 22 34 8 Pour It Up, Rihanna 21
22 37 33 26 Radioactive, Imagine Dragons 22
23 23 16 38 It's Time, Imagine Dragons 15
24 25 19 18 Catch My Breath, Kelly Clarkson 19
25 21 18 22 Diamonds, Rihanna 1
26 31 22 40 Little Talks, Of Monsters And Men 20
27 26 48 25 Gangnam Style, PSY 2
28 47 55 5 Feel This Moment, Pitbull Featuring Christina Aguilera 28
29 30 17 35 Home, Phillip Phillips 6
30 20 43 8 Carry On, fun. 20
31 33 25 22 Hall Of Fame, The Script Featuring will.i.am 25
32 38 38 7 Sure Be Cool If You Did, Blake Shelton 32
33 34 21 36 One More Night, Maroon 5 1
34 49 40 18 Poetic Justice, Kendrick Lamar Featuring Drake 34
35 35 29 10 C'Mon, Ke$ha 27
36 29 30 44 Wanted, Hunter Hayes 16
37 44 49 6 Troublemaker, Olly Murs Featuring Flo Rida 37
38 28 24 53 Some Nights, fun. 3
39 39 31 17 Better Dig Two, The Band Perry 28
40 27 35 30 Adorn, Miguel 17
41 46 37 11 All Gold Everything, Trinidad James 36
42 0 Hot Shot Debut 1 Hey Porsche, Nelly 42
43 42 27 28 Swimming Pools (Drank), Kendrick Lamar 17
44 43 32 13 One Of Those Nights, Tim McGraw 32
45 32 20 33 The A Team, Ed Sheeran 16
46 51 72 9 Kiss You, One Direction 46
47 41 50 11 Two Black Cadillacs, Carrie Underwood 41
48 40 39 15 I'm Different, 2 Chainz 27
49 55 60 25 Sail, AWOLNATION 49
50 50 36 22 Die Young, Ke$ha 2
51 54 52 16 Tornado, Little Big Town 51
52 57 61 12 Neva End, Future 52
53 58 45 3 Downtown, Lady Antebellum 45
54 53 53 17 Wicked Games, The Weeknd 53
55 63 88 4 Loveeeeeee Song, Rihanna Featuring Future 55
56 60 26 3 My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark (Light Em Up), Fall Out Boy 26
57 56 54 14 Somebody's Heartbreak, Hunter Hayes 54
58 61 62 8 I Drive Your Truck, Lee Brice 58
59 64 69 3 R.I.P., Young Jeezy Featuring 2 Chainz 59
60 67 74 5 Mama's Broken Heart, Miranda Lambert 60
61 83 – 19 Skyfall, Adele 8
62 77 – 2 Bugatti, Ace Hood Featuring Future & Rick Ross 62
63 68 67 11 Merry Go 'Round, Kacey Musgraves 63
64 72 77 5 Get Your Shine On, Florida Georgia Line 64
65 59 44 19 Don't Stop The Party, Pitbull Featuring TJR 17
66 62 51 16 The Only Way I Know, Jason Aldean With Luke Bryan & Eric Church 40
67 69 66 14 Tip It On Back, Dierks Bentley 66
68 71 68 3 Pirate Flag, Kenny Chesney 68
69 66 70 11 Who Booty, Jonn Hart Featuring IamSU! 66
70 0 Re-Entry 2 Bad, Wale Featuring Tiara Thomas 70
71 74 80 8 Give It All We Got Tonight, George Strait 71
72 84 – 2 Just Give Me A Reason, P!nk Featuring Nate Ruess 72
73 75 79 8 If I Didn't Have You, Thompson Square 73
74 88 83 4 I Love It, Icona Pop Featuring Charli XCX 69
75 70 75 17 Don't Judge Me, Chris Brown 67
76 24 – 2 Mirrors, Justin Timberlake 24
77 86 81 9 Battle Scars, Lupe Fiasco & Guy Sebastian 73
78 79 78 14 Remember You, Wiz Khalifa Featuring The Weeknd 63
79 99 – 2 Alive, Krewella 79
80 76 64 19 Ball, T.I. Featuring Lil Wayne 50
81 92 98 5 Love And War, Tamar Braxton 57
82 80 82 15 Little Things, One Direction 33
83 81 84 11 Love Sosa, Chief Keef 56
84 78 73 11 Stubborn Love, The Lumineers 70
85 89 76 9 Cups, Anna Kendrick 64
86 82 100 5 Dope, Tyga Featuring Rick Ross 68
87 95 – 3 Wagon Wheel, Darius Rucker 87
88 0 New 1 As Your Friend, Afrojack Featuring Chris Brown 88
89 0 New 1 Next To Me, Emeli Sande 89
90 90 87 19 Va Va Voom, Nicki Minaj 22
91 91 – 2 Power Trip, J. Cole Featuring Miguel 91
92 0 Re-Entry 3 Can't Hold Us, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis Featuring Ray Dalton 92
93 100 – 2 Hold On, Alabama Shakes 93
94 85 86 20 Anything Could Happen, Ellie Goulding 47
95 93 92 11 Guap, Big Sean 71
96 97 97 3 I Can Take It From There, Chris Young 96
97 0 Re-Entry 2 We Still In This B****, B.o.B Featuring T.I. & Juicy J 95
98 94 85 20 Goodbye In Her Eyes, Zac Brown Band 48
99 0 New 1 Like Jesus Does, Eric Church 99
100 0 New 1 Karate Chop (Remix), Future Featuring Lil Wayne 100

[kingofpain]

Unless I'm blind, it look like we finally say goodbye to the phenomenon that was Gotye.

[HolidayGuy]

^Nope, your vision is fine.

Yay for Emeli Sande landing her first Hot 100 entry.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

Feb 28, 2013 0:48:10 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I don't get how it's retarded... but whatever.

I think the :30 second samples thing should be included from iTunes. At least I don't think it shouldn't NOT be included. I don't think many people listen to them as leisure the way most YouTube videos are watched but a stream is a stream so I wouldn't object.

I still think the YouTube streaming thing is being blown out of proportion. I asked in another topic if anyone knew of approximate numbers of what the typical Top 10 or Top 20 most viewed videos in a given week are. I feel like even 10 million views in a week for a video is pretty high therefore making Harlem Shake a MASSIVE anomaly. It just looks like YT is being counted too much because of this one extreme case but I can't see a video receiving 1 or 2 million plays accounting for much change.

I don't disagree with the issue many have of the 30 second video being counted. If Billboard decided not to count it after the response for whatever reason, I wouldn't personally disagree with them. But realistically, Harlem Shake is a popular song right now BECAUSE of those 30 second clips. I think at best, Billboard could count them for less than what a full audio/video clip would.

Otherwise, I still feel like a lot of people take issue with the whole thing because it's such a drastic change. The Hot 100 changes its methodology often because how music is digested changes often. Don't blame them for trying to keep up with technology. If anything, these changes should be more welcome because otherwise, we'd still be relying on CD singles to determine the biggest hits. Their methodology could use tinkering but I think the whole thing is blown way out of proportion.

I personally like the changes Billboard has made over the past year. On-demand streaming, YouTube video streaming, all good. That does not mean though that Billboard got the formula right.

To prove my point, I looked at the situation from a different angle.
I estimated the chart point totals for the top 3 songs for March 9th, 2013 issue.

I used the following ratios to come up with my estimates.

Sales - 12:1
Airplay - 7,500:1
On-Demand - 200:1
Passive - 400:1

I assumed that youtube video streams were considered passive.

For the March 9th HOT 100 I arrived at the following estimates for the top 3:

Harlem Shake = 273,896
Thrift Shop = 78,167
When I Was Your Man = 47,780

By including the 30 second clips in the mix Billboard is claiming that "Harlem Shake" is more popular then the next 6 songs combined.

If you think this makes sense, then Billboard has gotten it right. But to me it does not make sense, and I am going to say so in an e-mail to Billboard sometime today (BTW if I am doing the above analysis, then I am pretty sure the chart department is also doing it, so I would not be surprised if the formula is altered in the weeks ahead).

Finally, I keep hearing the refrain that the number of video streams "Harlem Shake" is receiving is unusual, but a formula that is rigorously tested should account for extreme cases.

[Deleted]

I still have to say I consider the 30 second clips to be the 'official version' and therefore there isn't a problem with declaring Harlem Shake #1 (I see it as a good thing)

Even if it isn't, without it, we would not be talking about it right now without the 30 second version.

The 30 second version helped drive the sales numbers of the itunes version (which has seemed to have peaked)

The itunes version was released last summer and fell flat

I see Harlem Shake as an anomoly rather than the rule. You won't see random 30 second clips being this popular every day.

Gangnam Style spent 20 weeks at #1 (on youtube). I see Harlem Shake, not necessarily pulling off 20 weeks but (given the 5% decline) looks like we got several more weeks of Harlem Shake at #1.

[maxsultan]

I have no problm with YouTube views being counted as long as it is the full song. It should never be 30 second clips that are counted too. Ridiculous.

[Deleted]

:o RADIOACTIVE!!!

OmahGAWD

[Deleted]

100 0 New 1 Karate Chop (Remix), Future Featuring Lil Wayne 100


By virtue of being featured on every rap record ever released Lil Wayne scores yet another chart entry. The top solo artist (by this measurement) in the history of the Hot 100

[Ballroom Blitzed]

Feb 28, 2013 9:38:51 GMT -5 @2m said:

I see Harlem Shake as an anomoly rather than the rule. You won't see random 30 second clips being this popular every day.

I would be inclined to agree that the "30 second rule" (if we may call it that) will probably be a rare thing. It just so happens that "Harlem Shake" lends itself well to the rule (in that it's so ludicrously insubstantial that you could listen to thirty seconds of the wretched thing and you've heard the entire song).

Maybe I'm not being clear. Does everybody get what I'm trying to say?

Anyway, it seems that the problem is that, whatever the facts may be, it looks like Billboard has manipulated its formula for the benefit of this one song, just as it looked like they were manipulating the Hot Country Songs formula for the benefit of "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" last year.

[Deleted]

The stream difference between #1 and #2 is a factor of 10, in my opinion that is huge.

Whether there was any manipulation or not to benefit this song, given the hige difference, it seems they picked the right #1