Billboard Hot 100: 05/18/2013

[HolidayGuy]

Mimi's single had 31 million impressions (29m Monday and 2m Tuesday); has the airplay ratio changed from the 10,000 divider?

if it averages, say, 3m daily, that would be 21 million impressions for the 5/25 chart.

[Deleted]

The Way debuted at #10 with 220k sales. I don't think Mariah will get that much considering it peaked at 70% of Can't Hold Us on iTunes. I think it'll debut with 160k sales. It will have decent airplay though (keeping in mind that the deal only counted for this week), but I don't see how it could debut top 10? Is the competition that weak?

[josh]

Depends how the video (and performance?) boost sales on iTunes, and how the video does for streaming. The audio on Youtube, between Mariah's account and her Vevo, only has ~250k iirc. Not much at all. Airplay looks like ~30 million AI (Mediabase) seems likely by next Wednesday.

Doesn't look good for top 10, but still way too early before the video/performance? have time to work.

[SPRΞΞ]

May 8, 2013 12:56:00 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Based on my rough calculations:

1. Can't Hold Us ~ 54,500 points;
2. Just Give Me A Reason ~ 50,000 points;
3. Mirrors ~ 40,000 points.

MIrrors still has some growth potential at radio, but its' sales and streaming activity seemed to have lost momentum. "Can't Hold Us" may have a lengthy stay at #1 since it is doing very well on all 3 component charts.

Mariah Carey missed debuting on the HOT 100 despite garnering more than 4,000 chart points. "Beautiful" will likely debut in the top 10 next week, maybe even the top 5.

not if you take away all her airplay of the last 2 days.

[Deleted]

May 8, 2013 13:33:08 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

May 8, 2013 12:56:00 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Based on my rough calculations:

1. Can't Hold Us ~ 54,500 points;
2. Just Give Me A Reason ~ 50,000 points;
3. Mirrors ~ 40,000 points.

MIrrors still has some growth potential at radio, but its' sales and streaming activity seemed to have lost momentum. "Can't Hold Us" may have a lengthy stay at #1 since it is doing very well on all 3 component charts.

Mariah Carey missed debuting on the HOT 100 despite garnering more than 4,000 chart points. "Beautiful" will likely debut in the top 10 next week, maybe even the top 5.

not if you take away all her airplay of the last 2 days.

Why would you do that?

[Quixotic Music Lover]

"Beautiful" could debut in the top 10 if it could:

- sell 170,000 downloads (around 14,200 chart points);
- radio airplay of 50M (around 6,700 chart points);
- 1.5M streams (all passive, around 3,200 chart points).

So that comes up with 24,100, which may be enough for a Top 10 placement. Not sure if she is on the on-demand services, if so my estimates are low. I admit top 5 is unlikely. She would need more than 200,000 downloads, probably 60+M audience impressions, and more than 3.5M streams.

[HolidayGuy]

#Jazzy apparently can't read my posts, but...

The 31m airplay goes toward this week's chart; next week's figure will not include that sum. Why I said if it averages 3m a day, that would be 21 million audience for its second week on Hot 100 Airplay.

[Deleted]

How could it get 50 million BDS airplay? It's going to have a horrible 8th day.

MARIAH CAREY – #Beautiful f/Miguel: 32.528 (+32.528)
MARIAH CAREY – #Beautiful f/Miguel: 37.051 (+ 4.523)

Granted it'll keep climbing and maybe reach 10 million daily AI by then, but that would still be a 22 million drop.

[SPRΞΞ]

it's like she's starting over on airplay today. The last 2 days will be subtracted.

[josh]

May 8, 2013 13:57:24 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

it's like she's starting over on airplay today. The last 2 days will be subtracted.

Except next Wednesday will most likely see a gain so saying the 2nd day will be subtracted is sort of counter-intuitive. Since there was no deal on the 2nd day, just normal curiosity airplay.

[Daniel Collins]

May 8, 2013 13:22:40 GMT -5 Codex said:

The Way debuted at #10 with 220k sales. I don't think Mariah will get that much considering it peaked at 70% of Can't Hold Us on iTunes. I think it'll debut with 160k sales. It will have decent airplay though (keeping in mind that the deal only counted for this week), but I don't see how it could debut top 10? Is the competition that weak?

Sales this week(and possibly next week) are a relatively low compare to the week "The Way" debuted at #10

[Duca]

"Can't Hold Us" is my favorite #1 of the year.

Thank God "Just Give Me a Strapon" isn't #1 anymore.

[HolidayGuy]

On Wednesday, all tracks pretty much start at zero; each day accumulates airplay. The airplay from Monday and Tuesday falls in the Wed.-Tues. period for this week, and has nothing to do with the airplay numbers for the airplay period starting today (Wednesday) and running through next Tuesday.

[Az Paynter]

May 8, 2013 14:17:50 GMT -5 Duca said:

"Just Give Me a Strapon"

...you didn't.

[Nicolexo]

I scrolled past Duca's comment like it was just a normal comment, thought I saw something strange, and immediately scrolled back. LOL.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

If "Beautiful" only accumulates 15M AI for the period May 8-14, it will receive 2,000 chart points. If that happens I figure it would need to sell at least 180,000 downloads, and have at least 2.8M streams to have a shot at #10.

Right now digital sales are pretty soft with only the top 3 songs selling more than 150,000 per week, which makes it easier to get into the top 10. If sales continue at their current level (65% of the #1 track), then it will likely sell in the 150,000-170,000 range.

[Deleted]

............Week Ending May 5, 2013. Songs: Macklemore Pulls A Gaga
..By Paul Grein


.....Macklemore & Ryan Lewis this week becomes the first duo in the nearly 55-year history of the Hot 100 to reach #1 with its first two chart entries. They achieve the feat as “Can’t Hold Us” (featuring Ray Dalton) moves up to #1. “Thrift Shop” (featuring Wanz) held the top spot for six weeks earlier this year. Among all acts, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis is the first act to reach #1 with its first two chart hits since Lady Gaga scored in 2009 with “Just Dance” (featuring Colby O’Donis) and “Poker Face.”

“Thrift Shop” tops the 6 million mark in digital sales this week. It’s the 20th song to reach that plateau. It’s the third by an ongoing duo, following a pair of LMFAO hits: “Party Rock Anthem” (featuring Lauren Bennett and GoonRock, 7,653,000) and “Sexy And I Know It” (6,102,000). “Thrift Shop” raced to 6 million in just 36 weeks, a pace topped by only one song in digital history. “Somebody That I Used To Know” by Gotye featuring Kimbra got there in just 30 weeks. Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe” also took 36 weeks. (That smash tops 7 million this week. Details below.)
“Can’t Hold Us” holds at #1 on Hot R&B/Hip Hop Songs for the third week. “Thrift Shop” headed the chart the previous 14 weeks. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis is the first lead artist to remain #1 on this chart for 17 or more consecutive weeks since Alicia Keys was on top for 17 consecutive weeks in late 2007 and early 2008 with “No One” (10 weeks) followed by “Like You’ll Never See Me Again” (seven weeks). If you broaden the discussion to include featured artists, Lil Wayne was on top for 18 consecutive weeks in 2011 with Kelly Rowland’s “Motivation” and then DJ Khaled’s “I’m On One” (which also featured Drake and Rick Ross).

A third hit by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, “Same Love” (featuring Mary Lambert), jumps from #94 to #83 in its eighth week. It also jumps from #30 to #26 on Alternative Songs. It is being promoted only to alternative radio.

“Stay” by Rihanna featuring Mikky Ekko dips from #3 to #4. It holds at #1 on the all-format Radio Songs chart for the second week.

Bruno Mars’ “When I Was Your Man” rebounds from #6 to #5. The song tops the 3 million mark in digital sales this week. It’s Mars’ ninth song to reach that threshold; his sixth as a lead artist.

“I Love It” by Icona Pop featuring Charli XCX jumps from #9 to #7. The song also jumps to #1 on Dance/Electronic Songs, displacing “Feel This Moment” by Pitbull featuring Christina Aguilera.

Imagine Dragons’ “Radioactive” rebounds from #10 to #8. The song is #1 on Hot Rock Songs for a seventh week.

“Cruise” by Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly rebounds from #13 to #9. The song has already reached #8. The song spends its 10th week at #1 on Hot Country Songs. That ties Taylor Swift’s “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” for the longest run at #1 since Buck Owens’ “Love’s Gonna Live Here” spent 16 weeks on top from October 1963 through February 1964. This is the longest run at #1 by an ongoing duo since “Don’t Let Me Cross Over” by the husband-and-wife duo Carl Butler and Pearl topped the chart for 11 weeks in 1962-1963. (Long runs at #1 were fairly common in the early 1960s. It looks like they’re going to become fairly common again.)

“Cruise” tops the 3 million mark in digital sales this week. This brings the total of country songs that have reached that plateau to 11. “Cruise” is the first song by a country duo to reach this threshold. (The runner-up is Sugarland’s “Stuck Like Glue,” which has sold 2,629,000).

“#Beautiful” by Mariah Carey featuring Miguel doesn’t appear on this week’s Hot 100, but is expected to make a very potent debut next week. Carey has debuted at #1 three times (more than any other artist) with “Fantasy,” “One Sweet Day” (a collabo with Boyz II Men) and “Honey.” Can she do it again? Stay tuned.

Here's the low-down on this week's top 10 songs.

The Top Five: “Can’t Hold Us” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Ray Dalton jumps from #2 to #1 in its 13th week on the chart. This is its fifth week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #1 (262K)…“Just Give Me A Reason” by P!nk featuring Nate Ruess dips from #1 to #2 in its 12th week on the chart. This is its eighth week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #2 (255K)…Justin Timberlake’s “Mirrors” jumps from #5 to #3 in its 12th week on the chart. This is its fourth week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #3 (176K)…“Stay” by Rihanna featuring Mikky Ekko dips from #3 to #4 in its 13th week on the chart. This is its 12th week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #5 (140K)…Bruno Mars’ “When I Was Your Man” rebounds from #6 to #5 in its 20th week on the chart. This is its 13th week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #10 (109K).

The Second Five: “Thrift Shop” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz drops from #4 to #6 in its 31st week on the chart. This is its 20th week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #8 (117K)…“I Love It” by Icona Pop featuring Charli XCX jumps from #9 to #7 in its 14th week on the chart. This is its second week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #6 (136K)… Imagine Dragons’ “Radioactive” rebounds from #10 to #8 in its 36th week on the chart. This is its third week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #7 (134K)….“Cruise” by Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly rebounds from #13 to #9 in its 36th week. This is its second week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #4 (145K)….“Feel This Moment” by Pitbull featuring Christina Aguilera drops from #8 to #10 in its 15th week on the chart. This is its seventh week in the top 10. Digital sales rank: #19 (76K).

“Suit & Tie” by Justin Timberlake featuring Jay-Z drops out of the top 10, ending a 13-week run in the top 10.

“Get Lucky” by Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams, which jumped from #19 to #14 last week, is expected to remain strong in its third week. Digital sales rank: #20 (74K). The song holds at #1 on the Official U.K. Chart for the second week.

Selena Gomez’s “Come & Get It,” which has climbed as high as #22, is expected to crack the top 20 this week. Digital sales rank: #9 (115K).

Darius Rucker’s “Wagon Wheel” tops the 1 million mark in digital sales this week. It’s Rucker’s second solo hit to reach this level. “Alright” has sold 1,197,000 copies. Digital sales rank: #11 (102K).

Taylor Swift’s “22” tops the 1 million mark in digital sales this week. Digital sales rank: #16 (78K). Swift’s earlier age-specific hit, “Fifteen,” has sold 1,323,000 copies.

Here are some songs vying to enter the chart this week.

Billy Currington’s “Hey Girl.” This is an original song, not a remake of the Goffin & King chestnut.

We The Kings’ “Find You There.”

“I Could Be The One” by Avicii vs. Nicky Romero.

Brigit Mendler’s “Hurricane.” It’s from her debut studio album, Hello My Name Is…

Randy Houser’s “Runnin’ Outta Moonlight.” It’s from his third studio album, How Country Feels.

Capital Cities’ “Safe And Sound.” It’s from the duo’s upcoming debut studio album, In A Tidal Wave Of Mystery.

Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe” becomes the fifth song in digital history to top the 7 million mark. It’s just the second song by a female solo artist to hit the mark. It follows Adele’s “Rolling In The Deep” (7,855,000). “Call Me Maybe” took 62 weeks to reach 7 million in sales, a pace exceeded by only one song in digital history. “Somebody That I Used To Know” by Gotye featuring Kimbra achieved the feat in 56 weeks.

Soulja Boy Tell ’Em’s “Crank That Soulja Boy” tops the 5 million mark in digital sales this week. The hip-hop smash topped the Hot 100 for seven weeks in 2007. It was the first song to reach 3 million in digital sales. As of this week, 189 songs have reached that milestone.

Rihanna’s “Pour It Up” tops the 1 million mark in digital sales.

Fans remembered Kris Kross’ 1992 smash “Jump” in the wake of Chris Kelly’s death last week at age 34. The song sold 19K digital copies, which boosted its tally to 487K. The song sold 2,079,000 physical copies in 1992, according to Nielsen SoundScan. It wound up as that year’s #3 best-seller, behind Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You” (3,086,000) and Sir Mix-A-Lot’s “Baby Got Back” (2,392,000). The duo’s Totally Krossed Out album was also a smash. It topped The Billboard 200 for two weeks and spent 20 consecutive weeks in the top three (!). Kris Kross received a Grammy nomination for Best New Artist, but lost to Arrested Development.

To My Readers: I’ll have more to add after I’ve seen the full Hot 100

[Deleted]

“#Beautiful” by Mariah Carey featuring Miguel doesn’t appear on this week’s Hot 100

[Enigma.]

May 8, 2013 15:44:28 GMT -5 @2m said:

“#Beautiful” by Mariah Carey featuring Miguel doesn’t appear on this week’s Hot 100, but is expected to make a very potent debut next week. Carey has debuted at #1 three times (more than any other artist) with “Fantasy,” “One Sweet Day” (a collabo with Boyz II Men) and “Honey.” Can she do it again? Stay tuned.

Ooh the excitement, oh wait, NOBODY ON EARTH thinks that she can debut at #1.

[Au$tin]

May 8, 2013 12:57:21 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

May 8, 2013 12:56:00 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

Mariah Carey missed debuting on the HOT 100 despite garnering more than 4,000 chart points. "Beautiful" will likely debut in the top 10 next week, maybe even the top 5.

Really? I'm expecting Top 20, but is Top 10 really that likely?

I think she'll end up in the 11-15 range, which is definitely nothing to sneeze at. Top ten is likely, but it's an extremely competitive top ten right now. I just can't see it happening. Especially if the single is "only" number four on iTunes. Now, it definitely stands a great chance of entering the top ten later, but debuting in the top ten just doesn't seem all that likely to me either.

I was pretty accuarate on my early predictions! I switched up Bruno and "Thrift Shop" and had "Radioactive" a spot lower. I was not expecting "Cruise" to re-enter (yes, that's re-enter, Billboard) the top ten this week. It's becoming quite the surprise hit on pop, which shocks me given the extreme amount of country twang in the vocals and the obviously cliché country lyrics.

Glad to see "Can't Hold Us" made it to number one. I hope it can stay there for a while and block "Mirrors". It's definitely going to be a tight competition between it and "Mirrors" in the coming weeks. "Mirrors" is also in competition for the next number one on Radio Songs with "Just Give Me a Reason." I really want P!nk to sneak in a week at number one there before "Mirrors" takes over. If "Stay" could drop just a bit faster and "Mirrors" could slow down just a bit, she can have it for at least one week. Then "Mirrors" and "Can't Hold Us" will battle it out on that chart in the coming weeks as well. Digitally, it looks as if "Can't Hold Us" will remain the champ for most of both songs' runs, though "Mirrors" will be definitely be beside "Can't Hold Us" for a while digitally.

[Quixotic Music Lover]

I went back to the April 13th, 2013 HOT 100 topic to research "The Way" and how it debuted at #10. It sold 219,000 downloads (18,250 chart points assuming 12:1 ratio) and had 1.4M streams (assuming 400:1 gives it 3,500 chart points). There was no mention of radio airplay. So I arrive at an estimate of 21,750 for the "The Way". Very doable for "Beautiful", but it really depends on whether the digital sales hold up or increase over the weekend, and whether there is significant streaming. Airply will likely not be a significant factor for another few weeks.

If this was the HOT100 of 2011 it would be almost guaranteed a top10 placement, but streaming has really thrown a spanner into the works (or made the HOT100 more interesting, depending on your point of view).

[Lozzy]

Congrats to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis on a second #1! Hopefully "Same Love" can manage top 5 at least :)

May 8, 2013 14:17:50 GMT -5 Duca said:

Thank God "Just Give Me a Strapon" isn't #1 anymore.

... *unfollows* :)

[imbondz]

May 8, 2013 16:58:47 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Congrats to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis on a second #1! Hopefully "Same Love" can manage top 5 at least :)

haaaaaate that song

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Homophobe!!!!!

[imbondz]

or the song is just beyond cheesy. not to mention, the opening lyrics are such a backhanded compliment to gay people. 'I thought I was gay, crying, tears down my face, then I realized I wasn't.' Phew! Then he goes on to say why he doesn't have a problem with gay people, he's just glad he ain't.

[Lozzy]

May 8, 2013 21:55:32 GMT -5 imbondz said:

'I thought I was gay, crying, tears down my face, then I realized I wasn't.' Phew!

Might want to re-read the lyrics

[ListenToItTwice]

May 8, 2013 22:51:25 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

May 8, 2013 21:55:32 GMT -5 imbondz said:

'I thought I was gay, crying, tears down my face, then I realized I wasn't.' Phew!

Might want to re-read the lyrics

yeah I'm think imbondz missed the point.. I think any ten-year-old would be confused and upset by thinking he was gay.. I'm sure that Macklemore would have no problem accepting himself as a gay adult if he were one

[Deleted]

Mariah debuts at #104 this week

[cesarams]

Selena got Top 20 :)

[stetz]

Confused... Little Talks moved ahead of I Will Wait on the Hot Rock Songs chart, but I Will Wait is at 50 on the hot 100 and Little Talks didn't reenter.