Billboard Hot 100: 08/24/2013

[brucelover]

I am still dumbfounded as to why Miley is struggling so much on radio, the song is an obvious smash and should be nearing #1 on Pop Songs.

[imbondz]

There's no such thing as a real leak. They do it on purpose to get extra random publicity. And it's a weird 'street' cred thing. 'You're so big your stuff gets leaked'. Bs.

[josh]

I think there are definitely real leaks. Why would "Ooh La La," "Give Me All Your Luvin'," etc. leak so far ahead, and then still keep the same release date?

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

Of course there are real Leaks,

Applause is most def not one, and i don't buy the bullshit excuse of an impending leak.

[Deleted]

So "Roar" will have enough airplay to debut on the Hot 100 for this coming week (for week ending Aug 24th) but no sales so it won't debut at #1?

Is that about correct?

[imbondz]

You think they just hand out copies of a single to whoever wants them at the label? No. They would easily know who leaked a song because only a small handful would even have access.

[chartfreak]

Aug 12, 2013 18:00:16 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

So "Roar" will have enough airplay to debut on the Hot 100 for this coming week (for week ending Aug 24th) but no sales so it won't debut at #1?

Is that about correct?

Yes, that is correct.

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2013 18:07:49 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Aug 12, 2013 18:00:16 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

So "Roar" will have enough airplay to debut on the Hot 100 for this coming week (for week ending Aug 24th) but no sales so it won't debut at #1?

Is that about correct?

Yes, that is correct.

Thanks

[Au$tin]

Aug 12, 2013 18:00:16 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

So "Roar" will have enough airplay to debut on the Hot 100 for this coming week (for week ending Aug 24th) but no sales so it won't debut at #1?

Is that about correct?

Yes. "Applause" will also have the same thing happen to it. Weird. Both "Roar" and "Applause" will debut on the same week rather than a week apart.

Aug 12, 2013 18:02:53 GMT -5 imbondz said:

You think they just hand out copies of a single to whoever wants them at the label? No. They would easily know who leaked a song because only a small handful would even have access.

You don't think people do everything they can to steal a copy of the latest hot new artist's single? We live in the digital age. There are ways people can find information, steal it, and not be traced. Leaks also happen so often than when it does happen, no one will be reprimanded, as there's no point. The cost of doing so would be much greater than just letting the leak happen.

[chartfreak]

Well, Gaga only has 2 days correct? And is today and tomorrow a CC deal?

[josh]

Aug 12, 2013 18:26:57 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Well, Gaga only has 2 days correct? And is today and tomorrow a CC deal?

My local station hasn't played it on the hour, so I'm assuming it's like Katy's, ~half day of radio play with big stations doing hourly play, then a full day with the full CC deal. I think Gaga *might* not debut this week. If she does, it's going to be very low. Of course, she could be getting more airplay than I think today, so until we see tomorrow's numbers it will be hard to judge.

[The Upper Hand]

KATY PERRY - Roar: 939 spins
LADY GAGA - Applause: 653 spins

[Verisimilitude]

Lady Gaga vs. Katy Perry: Superstar Digital Song Sales Showdown

By Keith Caulfield and Gary Trust | August 12, 2013 7:14 PM EDT

This week could be a historic one for digital song sales.

New singles from Lady Gaga and Katy Perry are heading for big debuts on Billboard's Digital Songs chart next week -- and both should rack up major sales.

Perry's new single "Roar" hit digital retail at midnight eastern today (Aug. 12), while Lady Gaga's "Applause" is scheduled to make a retail bow on Tuesday (Aug. 13). The latter's arrival is six days before its original release date (Aug. 19).

While it's a bit early in the week to exactly forecast just how big either will be, industry sources suggest each should sell well over 400,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Aug. 18. A start of more than 500,000 for each wouldn't be out of the question either.

The final sales tally for both will be released on the morning of Aug. 21.

If both tunes sell more than 400,000, it would be the first time two songs have debuted in the same week with more than 400,000.

Further, it would mark the first non-holiday week in more than a year where two songs sold more than 400,000. It last happened on the May 5, 2012-dated Digital Songs chart, when Maroon 5's "Payphone" debuted at No. 1 (493,000), pushing Gotye's "Somebody That I Used to Know" down one slot to No. 2 (463,000).

Perry's "Roar" has a slight head start in the sales race, as her song had a 24-hour jump on "Applause." So the former will get a full seven days worth of sales in its first week, versus "Applause's" six days.

Both songs preview new studio albums for each superstar. Perry's "Roar" leads her "Prism" set, which is due Oct. 22 on Capitol Records. "Applause" is the first single from Gaga's "ArtPop," which arrives on Nov. 11 on Streamline/Interscope.

Gaga's last studio album, 2011's "Born This Way," was led by its title track, which debuted with 448,000 downloads after only three days on sale, according to Nielsen SoundScan. (It hit retail on an off-cycle Friday, instead of the usual Tuesday.) In its second chart week (and first full sales week), it moved 509,000 downloads.

“California Gurls” ushered in Perry’s last new album, 2010’s “Teenage Dream.” It bowed at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 294,000. Perry has sold more than 400,000 in two previous weeks when "Firework" shifted 509,000 over the busy post-Christmas week of 2010, and when "Part of Me" debuted in 2012 (411,000).

'ROAR'-ING TOWARD HOT 100 'APPLAUSE'?
How are the songs' Billboard Hot 100 fortunes shaping up?

As previously reported, "Roar" is likely headed for a debut in the bottom half of the Hot 100 on the chart to be released on Billboard.com this week, highlights of which will post on Wednesday (Aug. 14). The start will stem only from its airplay through Tuesday (Aug. 13); its expected lofty sales (and streaming) figure will not factor into its chart rank until the chart released the following week, when a hefty sales sum could translate to a vault into the top five.

"Applause," meanwhile, is likely not to reach this week's Hot 100, unless its airplay Monday (Aug. 12) and Tuesday is enough to spur a debut in the chart's lower rungs. Like "Roar," its sales and first full week of airplay and streaming will make it a force on next week's Hot 100, with gigantic sales also potentially leading to a top five entrance.

Thus, as Perry and Gaga battle in the iTunes Store this week, we'll know who ranks higher on next week's Hot 100 after each song has had a full week of music buyers, streams and radio programmers weighing in.

[Caviar]

How rare is it that TWO pop divas release highly anticipated FIRST singles on the same day? :O

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2013 19:07:05 GMT -5 Caviar said:

How rare is it that TWO pop divas release highly anticipated FIRST singles on the same day? :O

Ke$ha and Rihanna last year?

[Caviar]

Maybe but Rih releases every year and Kesha wasn't no where near the star power of either Gaga or Katy. No shade to any artist but the hype from Gaga/Katy I feel is higher than them. Of course that's my opinion.

[Deleted]

Ke$ha was coming off of 6 consecutive top 10's, with her previous debut single debuting at #1 on the H100. I'd say the anticipation was high for her, although both singles did badly the first week, I don't think either even dethroned whatever Taylor Swift countdown single was dominating at the time. But that's the closest I can think of.

Unless... 2011 Avril + Britney

[hitseeker.]

Aug 12, 2013 19:15:05 GMT -5 Codex said:

Ke$ha and Rihanna last year?

They didn't release the singles on the same day. "Die Young" was supposed to be released on September 25th but it leaked on the 24th if I'm not mistaken, while "Diamonds" was released on the 26th

[Deleted]

Well technically Applause and Roar were leaked/released 2 days apart aswell, going on iTunes a day apart. So it's a similar situation.

[hitseeker.]

Aug 12, 2013 19:34:04 GMT -5 Codex said:

Well technically Applause and Roar were leaked/released 2 days apart aswell, going on iTunes a day apart. So it's a similar situation.

You're right, but they were not released on the exact same day, which was the point my post was addressing, continuing from the conversation above

[Glove Slap]

Aug 12, 2013 19:20:20 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Maybe but Rih releases every year and Kesha wasn't no where near the star power of either Gaga or Katy. No shade to any artist but the hype from Gaga/Katy I feel is higher than them. Of course that's my opinion.

I agree. With Katy and Gaga, there's an actual feeling that they've been gone, especially for Gaga. Over the summer, several of my friends mentioned how it seemed that Gaga disappeared because she was so huge for 3 straight years and then just backed off.

[Duca]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 278.741 (+1.276)
2. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 153.292 (-0.887)
3. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 151.283 (+0.590) ▲
4. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 150.118 (-3.028) ▼
5. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 136.239 (+0.677)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 123.611 (+0.070)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 113.330 (-1.081)
8. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 110.817 (+0.985)
9. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 105.990 (-0.849)
10. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 100.581 (+0.321)
11. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 92.211 (+0.239)
12. JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 90.774 (-1.161)
13. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 84.531 (-0.586)
14. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 76.544 (-0.413)
15. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 73.473 (+1.750)
16. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 70.995 (+0.409)
17. BRETT ELDREDGE – Don’t Ya: 65.667 (+0.939) ▲
18. RANDY HOUSER – Runnin’ Outta Moonlight: 65.028 (-0.465) ▼
19. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 64.013 (-0.443) ▲
20. HUNTER HAYES – I Want Crazy: 63.861 (-0.790) ▼

KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 59.585 (+0.214)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – See You Again: 59.342 (-0.157)
MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 58.638 (+0.034)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 52.564 (+0.403)
LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 51.539 (+1.533)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 47.846 (+0.610)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 47.398 (+0.320)
KATY PERRY – Roar: 40.695 (+13.113)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 35.644 (-0.116)
DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 32.852 (+3.594)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 30.093 (+0.047)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 29.728 (+0.529)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 22.814 (-0.045)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 22.682 (-0.176)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 21.952 (+0.384)
LORDE – Royals: 21.517 (+0.414)
LABRINTH – Beneath Your Beautiful: 17.863 (-0.334)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 19.235 (+1.339)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 14.743
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 9.097 (-0.002)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 8.856 (+0.510)

[Deleted]

Blurred Lines is nearly twice as much as the #2 song now and there isn't anything in the top 20 gaining significantly? Only Holy Grail is getting +1m's and even that's still 205 million away. Is this going to spend 20 weeks at #1 on airplay? :o

[#Joseph.T]

KATY PERRY – Roar: 40.695 (+13.113)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 14.743
:o :o

[Enigma.]

Both songs have deals if I'm not mistaken so their numbers should be like that

[#Joseph.T]

actually I love 2 songs (Applause & Roar),hope both songs will get #1 :'(

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

The power of clear channel.

[Acid Eyes]

Even with Roar and Applause soaking up all these spins, BL is still gaining. I can't.

[chartfreak]

what is the likelihood of gaga debuting with two days off air play?

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 13, 2013 9:06:32 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

what is the likelihood of gaga debuting with
two days off air play?

Billboard said maybe not if it does it would jump from close to 100 to top 5