Daniel Collins
4x Platinum Member
With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Aug 21, 2013 12:52:54 GMT -5
Another record has been snatched from Mariah.
Biggest jumps to #2 in Hot 100 history
85-2 "Roar" Katy Perry (Aug .31,2013)
60-2 "Loverboy" Mariah Carey featuring Cameo (Aug 4, 2001)
55-2 "Incomplete," Sisqo (Aug. 5, 2000)
54-2 "Nel Blu Dipinto Di Blu (Volare)," Domenico Modugno (Aug. 11, 1958)
51-2 "Party Like a Rockstar," Shop Boyz (June 9, 2007)
49-2 "Last Kiss," Pearl Jam (June 26, 1999)
41-2 "Music of My Heart," 'N Sync & Gloria Estefan (Oct. 16, 1999)
31-2 "I'll Make Love to You," Boyz II Men (Aug. 20, 1994)
28-2 "Single Ladies," Beyonce
26-2 "I Believe I Can Fly," R. Kelly (Dec. 21, 1996)
22-2 "Thank God I Found You," Mariah Carey featuring Joe & 98 Degrees (Feb. 12, 2000)
22-2 "Kiss Kiss," Chris Brown
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Aug 21, 2013 12:54:24 GMT -5
Loverboy is my favorite out of those songs.
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badrobot
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2006
Posts: 3,392
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Post by badrobot on Aug 21, 2013 12:55:39 GMT -5
Roar is gonna hit #1 at some point... don't know why anyone would think this was it's only shot. I'm glad it didn't quite make it this week though, just to keep Robin going a bit longer. I just hope Applause makes it into the top 5 next week. I imagine it will with the video (and I wouldn't be surprised if sales actually went up slightly), but I bet it will only spend a few weeks total in the top ten before tumbling. It just doesn't seem to be connecting.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 12:56:34 GMT -5
I don't see why people think "Roar" needs a remix/discount to hit #1 in the future lol. The sales have shown that they will be remaining steady; unlike "Last Friday Night" which peaked in sales early on. Really the person who needs to be doing discounts and such is Thicke. 12th week at #1 next week. VMA performance + new music video to hold a 13th week. Then discount it for 14th-17th weeks please.  Yeah, some artists aren't that desperate. |
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Rodze
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Joined: August 2008
Posts: 2,546 
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Post by Rodze on Aug 21, 2013 13:24:56 GMT -5
Closer than I thought between BL and Roar. Not sure why Billboard even mentions On-Demand numbers when they're part of Streaming Songs. I guess it may be of interest to some, though. On-demand streaming is actually supposed to have a different weight -- divided by 150 -- from passive streaming -- divided by 300. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Aug 21, 2013 13:26:47 GMT -5
Call me a troll but 218,000 for Gaga's debut week is the most spectacular flop I've seen in a LONG time. I will call you a troll. You obviously weren't here for Nelly Furtado's last album, or Christina Aguilera's last two albums. I think "flop" may be a bit too soon, especially considering this: "Diamonds" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 133k. "We Found Love" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 117k. I realize that Rihanna releases new lead singles much more frequently than Gaga, and I'm not saying "Applause" will go on to be as successful as "Diamonds" or WFL...but it's definitely not "all about debut weeks" for these acts. |
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Post by surreallife on Aug 21, 2013 13:28:09 GMT -5
By my estimations BL had about 83,800 points while Roar had around 81,800 so the race was very close. BL sales were a bit stronger than I expected and Roar's streaming numbers a bit weaker. I think Katy Perry has a good shot at #1 in two weeks. What formula did you use? I am using 9:1 for sales, 7,500:1 for airplay, 200:1 for on demand and 400 for passive streaming. I have seen several posts quoting 12:1 for sales, but as the results for this week demonstrate, 12:1 does not seem to work. I suspect that BB tweaked the sales weighting either when youtube streams were added or soon afterwards. Makes sense since digital sales have turned downwards. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Aug 21, 2013 13:29:20 GMT -5
Applause at #3 according to Gaga. :) Lady Gaga @ladygaga 'Applause' debuted at #3 on the billboard Hot 100! Wooh wooooh wooooh!!!! It feels good to be back let's go let's go! #4DaysTillVmas !! EDIT: Lady Gaga @ladygaga 5m I am failing with my tweets this week hold please! LOL. I hate to say it but for her own good, Gaga needs to have someone checking for her tweets before they get sent out. Or at least she needs to wait a bit. I know most people will tweet in the moment but Gaga has too many followers and too much attention to risk screwing up like she has a few times this week. She might not care but the resulting arguments and internet trolling that comes from it can be avoided if she double checked her work. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 13:30:29 GMT -5
I bet Katy would have gotten that #1 if Gaga hadn't rush released. There I said it. Gaga's sabotaging of other artists continues... |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Aug 21, 2013 13:31:11 GMT -5
On the Billboard 200 albums chart, Luke Bryan's "Crash My Party" debuts at No. 1 with 528,000 according to Nielsen SoundScan. While over on the Digital Songs chart, Katy Perry's "Roar" bows at No. 1 with 557,000 downloads. LMAO! And people were questioning Gaga's album pre-order sales because she was passed by a "country album".... Great numbers for Katy! |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 13:31:49 GMT -5
Call me a troll but 218,000 for Gaga's debut week is the most spectacular flop I've seen in a LONG time. I will call you a troll. You obviously weren't here for Nelly Furtado's last album, or Christina Aguilera's last two albums. I think "flop" may be a bit too soon, especially considering this: "Diamonds" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 133k. "We Found Love" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 117k. I realize that Rihanna releases new lead singles much more frequently than Gaga, and I'm not saying "Applause" will go on to be as successful as "Diamonds" or WFL...but it's definitely not "all about debut weeks" for these acts. I'm pretty sure Cheers was still top 10 a few weeks before WFL, and Where Have You Been hadn't disappeared yet either. They were about as much of a debut as Last Friday Night. |
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HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
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Posts: 33,918
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 21, 2013 13:43:33 GMT -5
If On-Demand carries a higher weight, than why even include it in Streaming Songs? Makes it tougher for those trying to come up with the formula.  |
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crystalphnx
Platinum Member
Joined: December 2010
Posts: 1,500
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Post by crystalphnx on Aug 21, 2013 13:52:26 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Cheers was still top 10 a few weeks before WFL, and Where Have You Been hadn't disappeared yet either. They were about as much of a debut as Last Friday Night. I used those particular examples because the post to which I was responding included Rihanna in a short list of artists whose success was supposedly "all about their debut weeks", which was simply completely untrue of Rihanna's last two lead singles. Gaga's situation is different from Rihanna's in many ways, but the larger point still stands: the first week isn't the end of the story. will "Applause" go on to be a multi-week Hot 100 No. 1? almost definitely not. but will it peak higher than No. 6? almost definitely yes. |
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Aug 21, 2013 14:03:36 GMT -5
I bet Katy would have gotten that #1 if Gaga hadn't rush released. There I said it. Gaga's sabotaging of other artists continues... More like Gaga sabotaging herself. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Aug 21, 2013 14:28:43 GMT -5
Hot 100 calculated with the formula
1. Robin Thicke ft. T.I. & Pharrell - Blurred Lines (291/12 - 228.9/7.5 - 6600/450): 69.43666667 chart points
2. Katy Perry - Roar (557/12 - 63/7.5 - 3800/450): 63.26111111 chart points
3. Miley Cyrus - We Can't Stop (148/12 - 51/7.5 - 6900/450): 34.46666667 chart points
4. Imagine Dragons - Radioactive (121/12 - 119/7.5 - streaming is anywhere between 0 and 1,695,000 to maintain #4 position): 30.52222223 - 34.46666666 chart points
5. Jay-Z ft. Justin Timberlake - Holy Grail (178/12 - 71/7.5 - 2800/450): 30.52222222 chart points
6. Lady Gaga - Applause (218/12 - 31/7.5 - 2900/450): 28.74444444 chart points
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Post by josh on Aug 21, 2013 14:30:59 GMT -5
I will call you a troll. You obviously weren't here for Nelly Furtado's last album, or Christina Aguilera's last two albums. I think "flop" may be a bit too soon, especially considering this: I'm pretty sure Cheers was still top 10 a few weeks before WFL, and Where Have You Been hadn't disappeared yet either. They were about as much of a debut as Last Friday Night. WHYB didn't come out until AFTER WFL though. #flopdex |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 14:32:13 GMT -5
josh I meant it hadn't disappeared yet when Diamonds came. 
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Post by josh on Aug 21, 2013 14:34:49 GMT -5
josh I meant it hadn't disappeared yet when Diamonds came. Nice attempt at a coverup. #flopdex |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 14:37:04 GMT -5
Where Have You Been fell 27-34 the week Diamonds debuted at #16. Cheers was still climbing in the top 10 (8-7) the week We Found Love debuted at #16. And neither of them had full weeks. Gaga hasn't been charting since Marry the Night fell off like 20 months ago.
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SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,301
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 21, 2013 14:52:27 GMT -5
Hot 100 calculated with the formula 1. Robin Thicke ft. T.I. & Pharrell - Blurred Lines (291/12 - 228.9/7.5 - 6600/450): 69.43666667 chart points2. Katy Perry - Roar (557/12 - 63/7.5 - 3800/450): 63.26111111 chart points3. Miley Cyrus - We Can't Stop (148/12 - 51/7.5 - 6900/450): 34.46666667 chart points4. Imagine Dragons - Radioactive (121/12 - 119/7.5 - streaming is anywhere between 0 and 1,695,000 to maintain #4 position): 30.52222223 - 34.46666666 chart points5. Jay-Z ft. Justin Timberlake - Holy Grail (178/12 - 71/7.5 - 2800/450): 30.52222222 chart points6. Lady Gaga - Applause (218/12 - 31/7.5 - 2900/450): 28.74444444 chart pointsYea the gap between 2 and 3 is pretty significant. |
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Kris
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Joined: June 2013
Posts: 2,222
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Post by Kris on Aug 21, 2013 15:47:41 GMT -5
If BL drops by another 16% in digital sales this week can Katy's Airplay + Streaming boosts put her at #1 next week even with a large drop of digital sales? Provided BL drops a few mil AI this week.
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SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,301
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 21, 2013 15:55:46 GMT -5
If BL drops by another 16% in digital sales this week can Katy's Airplay + Streaming boosts put her at #1 next week even with a large drop of digital sales? Provided BL drops a few mil AI this week. I've been crunching a few numbers myself, and I think it really comes down to him tumbling in streaming and her jumping on streaming. His airplay won't be any different. He might get down to 250k if the average drop continues. But he fell 16% on streaming, so if he falls 20-25%, them there's a shot. I think Katy can pull 400+ again, hopefully in the 450 range. Remember, there was over a half a day at the beginning where BL's was #1 before Katy took over. This week she started at #1 with a 50% lead. Amazon, too. (starts this week at #2 instead of nothing) It's going to be close again for sure. |
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Post by josh on Aug 21, 2013 15:56:07 GMT -5
Why is a streaming gain a given? YT views have slowed down, but on-demand will likely grow. It could gain, or it could lose some. Neither would surprise me. I'm just not sure why a gain is a given like a lot of people are saying. ???
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SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,301
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 21, 2013 16:01:15 GMT -5
What's the difference between watching a video and streaming a song? Is that what the passive thing is about? Clarification? Formula?
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SuperTrouper
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2009
Posts: 1,841
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Post by SuperTrouper on Aug 21, 2013 16:01:57 GMT -5
Call me a troll but 218,000 for Gaga's debut week is the most spectacular flop I've seen in a LONG time. I will call you a troll. You obviously weren't here for Nelly Furtado's last album, or Christina Aguilera's last two albums. I think "flop" may be a bit too soon, especially considering this: "Diamonds" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 133k. "We Found Love" debuted at No. 7 on Hot Digital Songs with 117k. I realize that Rihanna releases new lead singles much more frequently than Gaga, and I'm not saying "Applause" will go on to be as successful as "Diamonds" or WFL...but it's definitely not "all about debut weeks" for these acts. I'm sorry if you think that way but a "flop" isn't the same thing for every artist and every situation. Nelly's been missing from the scene for nearly 5 years and had to make do with just about the 1% of the marketing push "Applause" received. Similar with Christina, and, well, she had other things going against her as well. I'm well aware that it is entirely possible to improve upon a somewhat weak debut week and end up having a sizable hit. But I find it insincere of Gaga fans to be talking about how this is OK or normal or expected - if I went into the Artpop thread just a month ago and said this will open with less than the numbers Ariana Grande had, I would be called "delusional", "hater", etc. |
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SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,301
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 21, 2013 16:13:48 GMT -5
I don't think Applause is a #1 contender, but i foresee Blurred Lines, Roar, and Applause as the Top 3 for awhile until Britney comes.
Everything else is just stale, early summer songs that are hovering around flying under the radar with no hype or momentum or buzz.
Well, Avicii might be a threat. Forgot about that one.
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Verisimilitude
8x Platinum Member
'90s Zealot
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Post by Verisimilitude on Aug 21, 2013 16:22:10 GMT -5
What's the difference between watching a video and streaming a song? Is that what the passive thing is about? Clarification? Formula? Passive streaming comes from listening to a song on an online radio station, like Pandora. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2013 16:38:59 GMT -5
I don't understand why they didn't combine the two versions of Roar. It could be #1 :(
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Lozzy
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Posts: 49,237
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Post by Lozzy on Aug 21, 2013 16:44:22 GMT -5
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SPRΞΞ
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Posts: 22,301
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 21, 2013 16:50:12 GMT -5
14 weeks in the Top 10 for Get Lucky!  hopefully it's a Top 10 contender for year-end. |
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