Billboard Hot 100: 11/09/2013

[Joe1240]

Taylor's soundtrack song "Sweeter Than Fiction" will debut this week. Hopefully at least top 30 on the BBHot100.

[Duca]

1. LORDE – Royals: 220.484 (-0.065)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 201.958 (-1.865)
3. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 184.388 (+2.561)
4. DRAKE – Hold On We’re, Going Home: 166.856 (+0.950)
5. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 151.647 (-2.476)
6. MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 125.741 (+2.810)
7. LADY GAGA – Applause: 119.029 (+1.079)
8. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 110.463 (-2.519)
9. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 100.631 (-1.441)
10. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 83.934 (-1.760)
11. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 76.531 (+2.102)
12. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 73.539 (-0.403)
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 69.375 (+0.391)
14. PARAMORE – Still Into You: 68.734 (+0.583)
15. THOMAS RHETT – It Goes Like This: 67.763 (+0.208)
16. LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 64.546 (-1.042)
17. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 63.109 (-0.256)
18. BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 62.614 (=)
19. TIM MCGRAW – Southern Girl: 61.986 (+0.141)
20. TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 61.297 (+0.153)

BLAKE SHELTON – Mine Would Be You: 60.616 (+0.786)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 58.069 (-0.141)
CHRIS YOUNG – Aw Naw: 57.848
LEE BRICE – Parking Lot Party: 55.296 (+0.046)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 55.286 (+1.165)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 52.444 (-1.956)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 49.796 (-0.202)
KEITH URBAN & MIRANDA LAMBERT – We Were Us: 48.297 (+1.171)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 41.866 (+0.797)
AUGUST ALSINA – I Luv This Sh*t: 41.856 (+0.109)
PARMALEE – Carolina: 40.936 (+0.543)
JAY Z – Tom Ford: 37.697 (+0.136)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 36.548 (+0.885)
KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 36.103 (+3.674)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 33.128 (-0.426)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 28.973 (+0.479)
ZEDD – Stay The Night f/H. Williams: 28.032 (+1.274)
JASON DERULO – Marry Me: 27.177 (+0.341)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 26.348 (+0.457)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 25.221 (-0.262)
CASSADEE POPE – Wasting All These Tears: 23.167( +0.068)
PITBULL – Timber f/Ke$ha: 20.314 (+0.889)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 19.869 (+0.013)
RIHANNA – What Now: 19.844 (+0.288)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 16.283 (+0.243)
ELLIE GOULDING – Burn: 8.439
JOHN NEWMAN – Love Me Again: 7.774
ZENDAYA – Replay: 5.617
LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 4.779 (+1.409)
ARCADE FIRE – Reflektor: 3.921
KILLERS – Shot At The Night: 3.371
AVRIL LAVIGNE – Let Me Go f/Chad Kroeger: 3.073
CIARA – Overdose: 2.359
ONE DIRECTION – Story Of My Life: 1.189
KELLY ROWLAND – Gone f/Wiz Khalifa: 1.006

[Rocky]

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

1. LORDE – Royals: 220.484 (-0.065)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 201.958 (-1.865)
3. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 184.388 (+2.561)

Not 3 songs above 190M AI in in three days... wtf radio?

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

7. LADY GAGA – Applause: 119.029 (+1.079)

Mmmm okay it passed BR.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

11. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 76.531 (+2.102)

Yay. I can't believe this is shaping up to be a big radio hit.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 69.375 (+0.391)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 49.796 (-0.202)

"Mirrors" is officially a criminal now.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

14. PARAMORE – Still Into You: 68.734 (+0.583)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 55.286 (+1.165)

Yay, these are still living.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

18. BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 62.614 (=)

?? The direction is: ^. Yeah, up. Rise or die now.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 36.103 (+3.674)

:3 wanna bet? This will pass "Roar" in three weeks somewhere above 100M AI.

Oct 26, 2013 6:23:40 GMT -5 Duca said:

ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 41.866 (+0.797)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 26.348 (+0.457)
PITBULL – Timber f/Ke$ha: 20.314 (+0.889)
LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 4.779 (+1.409)

 *excited*

[Enigma.]

TKO is bombing really, although the longevity of Mirrors isn't helping as stated above.

Can the 20/20 2 of 2 era handle two flop(pish) singles?

[HolidayGuy]

Can't really compare "Applause" to "Bad Romance," with airplay panel changes and all. Best comparison would be peak position on Hot 100 Airplay.

Will "Wake Me Up" be the next airplay No. 1?

[Deleted]

Oct 26, 2013 12:14:05 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Can't really compare "Applause" to "Bad Romance," with airplay panel changes and all. Best comparison would be peak position on Hot 100 Airplay.

Will "Wake Me Up" be the next airplay No. 1?

maybe!It's donig well recently.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Oct 26, 2013 10:32:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

TKO is bombing really, although the longevity of Mirrors isn't helping as stated above.

Can the 20/20 2 of 2 era handle two flop(pish) singles?

Nope. They shouldnt have done a re-release honestly.

[#Joseph.T]

1. LORDE – Royals: 221.060 (+ 0.576)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 198.792 (- 3.166)
3. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 186.948 (+ 2.560)
4. DRAKE – Hold On We’re, Going Home: 167.961 (+ 1.105)
5. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 149.976 (- 1.671)
6. MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 128.446 (+ 2.705)
7. LADY GAGA – Applause: 119.770 (+ 0.741)
8. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 108.019 (- 2.444)
9. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 99.238 (- 1.393)
10. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 81.215 (- 2.719)
11. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 78.712 (+ 2.181)
12. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 73.315 (- 0.224)
13. PARAMORE – Still Into You: 69.004 (+ 0.270) ▲
14. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 68.973 (- 0.402) ▼
15. THOMAS RHETT – It Goes Like This: 67.723 (- 0.040)
16. LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 63.392 (- 1.154)
17. TIM MCGRAW – Southern Girl: 62.539 (+ 0.553) ▲
18. BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 62.333 (- 0.281)
19. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 62.119 (- 0.990) ▼
20. TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 61.552 (+ 0.255)

BLAKE SHELTON – Mine Would Be You: 61.257 (+ 0.641)
CHRIS YOUNG – Aw Naw: 58.970
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 58.451 (+ 0.382)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 56.920 (+ 1.634)
LEE BRICE – Parking Lot Party: 55.263 (- 0.033)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 49.807 (+ 0.011)
KEITH URBAN & MIRANDA LAMBERT – We Were Us: 49.297 (+ 1.000)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 43.078 (+ 1.212)
AUGUST ALSINA – I Luv This Sh*t: 41.883 (+ 0.027)
PARMALEE – Carolina: 41.375 (+ 0.439)
KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 40.884 (+ 4.781)
JAY Z – Tom Ford: 38.343 (+ 0.646)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 37.447 (+ 0.899)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 32.642 (- 0.486)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 29.541 (+ 0.568)
ZEDD – Stay The Night f/H. Williams: 29.063 (+ 1.031)
JASON DERULO – Marry Me: 27.754 (+ 0.577)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 27.051 (+ 0.703)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 25.308 (+ 0.087)
CASSADEE POPE – Wasting All These Tears: 23.671 (+ 0.504)
PITBULL – Timber f/Ke$ha: 21.375 (+ 1.061)
RIHANNA – What Now: 20.053 (+ 0.209)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 19.888 (+ 0.019)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 16.820 (+ 0.537)
LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 6.106 (+ 1.327)
ONE DIRECTION – Story Of My Life: 2.214 (+ 1.025)

[badrobot]

Does DWUW have a radio add date?

[josh]

Oct 27, 2013 10:35:44 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Does DWUW have a radio add date?

11/5 for pop and rhythmic. Hopefully they add a HAC date soon.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2013 7:14:12 GMT -5 #Joseph.T said:

ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 43.078 (+ 1.212)

yessssssss

[surreallife]

Haven't done this in a few weeks. Here is my TOP10 prediction.

1. Royals
2. Roar
3. Wake Me Up
4. Wrecking Ball
5. Hold On, We're Going Home
6. The Fox
7. Demons
8. Holy Grail
9. Applause
10. Counting Stars

"The Fox" is probably the hardest to place since most of its' points come from YouTube streaming.
BTW in the Nov. 2nd BB magazine, BB indicated that for Justin Bieber's latest song, 91% of its' chart points came from sales and 9% from streaming of the VEVO video. Since it sold 127,000 downloads and had 507,000 streams, the ratio of sales to YouTube streaming is 40:1 (the weighting for sales is 40x greater then that for YouTube streaming). Before the introduction of YouTube streams, the ratio was 25x (Sales = 12:1, Passive streaming = 300:1).

[Xedretinz Lododnz]

Oct 27, 2013 12:19:29 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Haven't done this in a few weeks. Here is my TOP10 prediction.

1. Royals
2. Roar
3. Wake Me Up
4. Wrecking Ball
5. Hold On, We're Going Home
6. The Fox
7. Demons
8. Holy Grail
9. Applause
10. Counting Stars

"The Fox" is probably the hardest to place since most of its' points come from YouTube streaming.
BTW in the Nov. 2nd BB magazine, BB indicated that for Justin Bieber's latest song, 91% of its' chart points came from sales and 9% from streaming of the VEVO video. Since it sold 127,000 downloads and had 507,000 streams, the ratio of sales to YouTube streaming is 40:1 (the weighting for sales is 40x greater then that for YouTube streaming). Before the introduction of YouTube streams, the ratio was 25x (Sales = 12:1, Passive streaming = 300:1).

So if streaming would be 300:1, then Roar could have a chance to roar back @ no.1 this week cause roar would probably increase in sales and streaming.... 
my prediction would be like this...

Royals = Sales(230,000/12) + Airplay(165000000/7500) + Streaming(6300000/300)
Total sum = 62,167 points

Roar = Sales *probably around 220K but because of CMA it should be(200,000/12) + Airplay(148000000/7500) + Streaming(8000000/300)
Total sum = 63,067 points

i'm not that sure but it could look like this one...

[surreallife]

Where "Royals" has the edge on "Roar" is on-demand streaming which is weighted 2x more than passive streaming. I think "Roar" will close the gap but still fall short. If "Roar" does not displace "Royals" this week, then it is not obvious (at least to me) who is the next #1.

[Duca]

Oct 26, 2013 10:32:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

TKO is bombing really, although the longevity of Mirrors isn't helping as stated above.

Can the 20/20 2 of 2 era handle two flop(pish) singles?

It's all the same era. And TKO is hardly bombing. It's stable on iTunes (#58, #393, #471, #1042) and it's still gaining on radio. There's no reason for it to be smashing without a music video or promo.

[icefire9]

Oct 27, 2013 14:25:05 GMT -5 Xedretinz Lododnz said:

Roar = Sales *probably around 220K but because of CMA it should be(200,000/12) + Airplay(148000000/7500) + Streaming(8000000/300)
Total sum = 63,067 points

CMA effect doesn't count on the Hot 100, only on the digital songs chart.

[3m3r7c]

How high do we think paramore will peak in AI?

Also does anyone know Radioactive total AI?

[Duca]

Oct 27, 2013 17:09:07 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

How high do we think paramore will peak in AI?

Also does anyone know Radioactive total AI?

Currently 48.711. It peaked at 157.257.

[3m3r7c]

Holy crap I did not realize it peaked so high, so it has fallen quite a bit since then. Thanks for the reply!

[3m3r7c]

And that is roughly 22 million from pop, 14 million from hot ac, 12 million everything else?

[Au$tin]

Oct 27, 2013 17:03:36 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Oct 27, 2013 14:25:05 GMT -5 Xedretinz Lododnz said:

Roar = Sales *probably around 220K but because of CMA it should be(200,000/12) + Airplay(148000000/7500) + Streaming(8000000/300)
Total sum = 63,067 points

CMA effect doesn't count on the Hot 100, only on the digital songs chart.

Are we 100% sure about this, though? It used to (see: "Boyfriend"'s tumble to 18 for example), but the addition of YouTube streaming may have actually combated it. Both "Hold On, We're Going Home" and "Wrecking Ball" saw increases on the Hot 100 the week of their album releases, and both fell hard due to CMA, but both saw very big increases in streaming, especially Drake since that was also the release week of the music video.

[Duca]

Oct 27, 2013 17:21:58 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

And that is roughly 22 million from pop, 14 million from hot ac, 12 million everything else?

0.650 Triple A
0.904 AC
1.249 Rock
2.159 Active Rock
6.006 Alternative
14.975 Hot AC
22.768 Pop

[HolidayGuy]

People expect new Timberlake to be smashing, regardless of whether there's a video, etc. I just think, like others, that she should have taken the best music and released one 20/20 Experience.

[3m3r7c]

Okay so i see the numbers are very similar to allaccess (although slightly different) as allaccess has radioactive at 21.911 (as opposed to 22.768) in pop and 13.845 (as opposed to 14.975) in hot ac (both in reccurent section). Very close though.

Thanks for the info duca!

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Oct 27, 2013 16:55:21 GMT -5 Duca said:

Oct 26, 2013 10:32:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

TKO is bombing really, although the longevity of Mirrors isn't helping as stated above.

Can the 20/20 2 of 2 era handle two flop(pish) singles?

It's all the same era. And TKO is hardly bombing. It's stable on iTunes (#58, #393, #471, #1042) and it's still gaining on radio. There's no reason for it to be smashing without a music video or promo.

It's a new album with new music on it. You can call it what you want but that doesn't stop it from being a separate entry on the BB200.

[Au$tin]

Oct 27, 2013 17:50:55 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

Okay so i see the numbers are very similar to allaccess (although slightly different) as allaccess has radioactive at 21.911 (as opposed to 22.768) in pop and 13.845 (as opposed to 14.975) in hot ac (both in reccurent section). Very close though.

Thanks for the info duca!

Those are numbers for the published panel. The numbers posted here are from Mediabase, which is where AllAccess gets its info as well. It's just that for every format, there is a published panel and an unpublished panel as well.

When on AllAccess you can toggle between the two. For example, from this page, the tab where you change formats can also change the panel. Under "Panel," select "All Stations (U.S.)" and you will get the numbers from the panels that are used to create the lists posted here every day.

[3m3r7c]

Ahh i see now. Thank you Austin! It all makes sense now

[#Joseph.T]

1. LORDE – Royals: 220.768 (- 0.292)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 195.507 (- 3.285)
3. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 189.621 (+ 2.673)
4. DRAKE – Hold On We’re, Going Home: 167.756 (- 0.205)
5. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 148.906 (- 1.070)
6. MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 131.670 (+ 3.224)
7. LADY GAGA – Applause: 120.784 (+ 1.014)
8. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 106.012 (- 2.007)
9. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 98.176 (- 1.062)
10. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 81.028 (+ 2.316) ▲
11. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 78.545 (- 2.670) ▼
12. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 72.867 (- 0.448)
13. PARAMORE – Still Into You: 69.012 (+ 0.008)
14. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 68.651 (- 0.322)
15. THOMAS RHETT – It Goes Like This: 68.134 (+ 0.411)
16. TIM MCGRAW – Southern Girl: 63.093 (+ 0.554) ▲
17. LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 62.651 (- 0.741) ▼
18. BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 62.166 (- 0.167)
19. TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 61.858 (+ 0.306) ▲
20. BLAKE SHELTON – Mine Would Be You: 61.720 (+ 0.463) ▲

MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 61.134 (- 0.985)
CHRIS YOUNG – Aw Naw: 59.333 (+ 0.363)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 58.826 (+ 0.375)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 58.043 (+ 1.123)
KEITH URBAN & MIRANDA LAMBERT – We Were Us: 50.236 (+ 0.939)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – TKO: 49.775 (- 0.032)
KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 45.718 (+ 4.834)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 43.822 (+ 0.744)
AUGUST ALSINA – I Luv This Sh*t: 42.105 (+ 0.222)
PARMALEE – Carolina: 41.440 (+ 0.065)
JAY Z – Tom Ford: 38.502 (+ 0.159)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 38.339 (+ 0.892)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 31.909 (- 0.733)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 29.988 (+ 0.447)
ZEDD – Stay The Night f/H. Williams: 29.890 (+ 0.827)
JASON DERULO – Marry Me: 28.980 (+ 1.226)
NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 27.515 (+ 0.464)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 25.664 (+ 0.356)
CASSADEE POPE – Wasting All These Tears: 23.739 (+ 0.068)
PITBULL – Timber f/Ke$ha: 22.247 (+ 0.872)
RIHANNA – What Now: 20.798 (+ 0.745)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 19.757 (- 0.131)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 17.264 (+ 0.444)
CAGE THE ELEPHANT – Come A Little Closer: 13.568
ELLIE GOULDING – Burn: 8.832
LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 7.280 (+ 1.174)
ONE DIRECTION – Story Of My Life: 3.144 (+ 0.930)
ARCADE FIRE – Afterlife: 0.183
BILLIE JOE + NORAH – Long Time Gone: 0.099
JAKE BUGG – Slumville Sunrise: 0.005

[Xedretinz Lododnz]

1. LORDE – Royals: 220.768 (- 0.292)

2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 195.507 (- 3.285)

3. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 189.621 (+ 2.673)


Looks like radio would have another number 1 next week with Wake Me Up...

6. MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 131.670 (+ 3.224)


nice update again for WB... wonder if it could hit top 3...

7. LADY GAGA – Applause: 120.784 (+ 1.014)


applause is still holding on... good for gaga

10. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 81.028 (+ 2.316) ▲


yay! Demons already in the top 10!!! nice one :)

13. PARAMORE – Still Into You: 69.012 (+ 0.008)

i guess it should be bigger... 

18. BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 62.166 (- 0.167)


aw. already peaking???? :(

KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 45.718 (+ 4.834)


yes!!! another big update for Katy!!! another top 1 in airplay for Katy coming up :) :)

ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 43.822 (+ 0.744)


glad it doing well in airplay... hope it could rise in the top 10 soon...

PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 38.339 (+ 0.892)

this song is nice... glad it is getting positive updates

BASTILLE – Pompeii: 17.264 (+ 0.444)


hope it gets bigger... its a good song.. 

LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 7.280 (+ 1.174)

good for DWUW getting positive updates already without an official release on radio...

[Enigma.]

Haven't yet heard Katy's album in full, but is "Hair Conditional" really the best song for a new single there? It's absolutely mediocre at best and makes Roar sound like anthemic masterpiece.