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Post by The Cheapest Critic on Jun 6, 2019 11:08:38 GMT -5
Hi Guys, My Name is The Cheapest Critic. And it's time for my new addition to the forum.
I going to guess how these songs are going to in the future based on their performance before actually charting.
The new songs:
Never Really Over: The radio push is decently strong and I can see it being a good choice with a comeback story. The problem, is that I don't think streaming is stay on board for a long judging on ME's performance and the fact that it is lower than that song . Granted to Katy, the song has a solid reception and I like it. It could be a sleeper if the radio keeps it around or a remix is released.
Mother's Daughter: No Radio momentum at the moment and I'm not sure if audiences are on her side at the time. Nothing Breaks Like A Heart looked strong before stalling and this is worse.
Call You Mine: It is slowly gaining momentum,but the Chainsmokers just aren't sticking their comeback, Bebe Rexha might not be enough. Maybe if the radio hops on soon with the streaming being okay .
Press: Doesn't look to have any momentum anywhere, but Cardi has shown to rebound before. I doubt it since it sucks but I seen stranger.
Songs I doubt will even chart: Under Enemy Lines( Lost almost all streaming)
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Jun 6, 2019 19:50:36 GMT -5
Imagine 20 years from here, AIWFC has around 15 weeks at #1 and 40+ weeks on the top 10 I can see it making #1 on the All Time Hot 100 tbh |
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Post by Mayman on Jun 7, 2019 7:24:23 GMT -5
Is their any chance that "Ocean Eyes" places on the Year End chart?
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jun 7, 2019 9:19:11 GMT -5
very, very low but existent nonetheless.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jun 7, 2019 12:21:14 GMT -5
The "Last Week" column on this chart is actually from 2 weeks ago, but it certainly shows the trends.
Here's my Top 100 estimates for 2019 charts up to June 8, 2019, the 28th (I believe) chart of the 52 that will probably determine the final list.
As I noted in the thread on the upcoming Billboard Top Songwriters and Producers lists, the #1 & #2 song of the year are co-written & produced by Louis Bell, who has 5 other songs in the top 30: Wow, Eastside, Sucker, Better Now, & Youngblood.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on Jun 8, 2019 16:52:53 GMT -5
How much longer til Act Up, Suge, and God's Country lock?
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narp
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Post by narp on Jun 8, 2019 16:57:21 GMT -5
I wonder how high the likelihood of those Christmas songs staying there is
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spitfire
Charting
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Post by spitfire on Jun 8, 2019 17:10:30 GMT -5
Any predictions for which songs will make the top 10 of the year end?
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Jun 8, 2019 17:27:02 GMT -5
Any predictions for which songs will make the top 10 of the year end? Without Me and Sunflower are already locked and six others songs should have an easy journey to the top 10 if there is not a super album bomb (aka - Drake, Adele, Kendrick Lamar, etc). 1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. 7 rings 5. Wow. 6. Happier 7. SICKO MODE 8. High Hopes -------------------- ...and I expect a close race for #9 and #10 between: Sucker Talk bad guy NEW SONG (aka In My Feelings '18, Closer '16, Roar '13) |
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Jun 8, 2019 19:11:41 GMT -5
Any predictions for which songs will make the top 10 of the year end? Without Me and Sunflower are already locked and six others songs should have an easy journey to the top 10 if there is not a super album bomb (aka - Drake, Adele, Kendrick Lamar, etc). 1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. 7 rings 5. Wow. 6. Happier 7. SICKO MODE 8. High Hopes -------------------- ...and I expect a close race for #9 and #10 between: Sucker Talk bad guy NEW SONG (aka In My Feelings '18, Closer '16, Roar '13) I'll go with "Sucker" at #9, then new song at #10, unless "bad guy" is strong enough to sneak in. If all three manages to do so, that will kick out "High Hopes" off Top 10 (plus SICKO MODE if new song does too). And yeah, we have another Year-End Top 10 with a pair of Post Malone songs in it. |
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spitfire
Charting
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Post by spitfire on Jun 9, 2019 3:23:55 GMT -5
Any predictions for which songs will make the top 10 of the year end? Without Me and Sunflower are already locked and six others songs should have an easy journey to the top 10 if there is not a super album bomb (aka - Drake, Adele, Kendrick Lamar, etc). 1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. 7 rings 5. Wow. 6. Happier 7. SICKO MODE 8. High Hopes -------------------- ...and I expect a close race for #9 and #10 between: Sucker Talk bad guy NEW SONG (aka In My Feelings '18, Closer '16, Roar '13) Thankyou for responding.
Judging by this that means thank u next is going to just miss the year end top 10?
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Jun 9, 2019 4:15:16 GMT -5
Bold prediction: "7 rings"'s place at the 2019 Billboard Year-End Hot 100 is #7.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jun 9, 2019 8:30:16 GMT -5
How much longer til Act Up, Suge, and God's Country lock? I have that in my Weeks Away (WA) column in my predictions, but a tl,dr of that is 3, 2, and 4 weeks respectively. |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jun 9, 2019 13:21:57 GMT -5
Without Me and Sunflower are already locked and six others songs should have an easy journey to the top 10 if there is not a super album bomb (aka - Drake, Adele, Kendrick Lamar, etc). 1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. 7 rings 5. Wow. 6. Happier 7. SICKO MODE 8. High Hopes -------------------- ...and I expect a close race for #9 and #10 between: Sucker Talk bad guy NEW SONG (aka In My Feelings '18, Closer '16, Roar '13) Thankyou for responding.
Judging by this that means thank u next is going to just miss the year end top 10?
Yes, I think it'll be in the #11-13 range. The Nice For What of 2019. |
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jun 9, 2019 13:26:03 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - June 8th 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000  Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jun 9, 2019 13:27:25 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Old Town Roadยน (2.939 points lead over bad guy): first song with at least a 2:1 points lead for six weeks since Whitney Houston's I Will Always Love You (9 weeks - Dec. 12, 1992-Feb. 6, 1993);
- Old Town Roadยฒ (84,900 points): first song with five weeks of 80k (or more) points since Hello;
- Old Town Roadยณ (84,900 points): most points during a ninth week at #1 in the Streaming Era (2nd most points in week 9: Blurred Lines - 74,900 points);
New peak in points: bad guy, Talk, Suge, Sweet but Psycho;
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jun 9, 2019 13:28:27 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - June 8, 2019
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fhas
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Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jun 9, 2019 13:30:24 GMT -5
^I don't have a stat to put this in the highlights, but Post Malone having two songs in the top 10 for five+ months with one song (Wow.) being radio driven and the other (Sunflower) being streaming driven is f**king insane.
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Jun 9, 2019 18:55:33 GMT -5
^I don't have a stat to put this in the highlights, but Post Malone having two songs in the top 10 for five+ months with one song (Wow.) being radio driven and the other (Sunflower) being streaming driven is f**king insane. its wild how the poppier one (Sunflower) is getting all the streaming support while pop radio is latching onto the more urban leaning one (Wow). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2019 15:50:39 GMT -5
Do you guys think "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" will make the 2019 year end list?
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Jun 10, 2019 19:45:17 GMT -5
Do you guys think "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" will make the 2019 year end list? That's should be locked within the next few weeks if it keeps up with the pace it's chart run has right now. |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jun 10, 2019 22:47:46 GMT -5
June 8, 2019 YE Projections (28/52)
Locked: Bad Guy
Striking distance: Me, Con Calma, Speechless
Getting close: Whiskey Glasses, Good as You, Miss Me More, Eyes On You (good week for country)
In the top 10, Old Town Road moves up to #3, and 7 Rings finally jumps High Hopes after nearly 3 months of chasing.
On: Rumor
Off: Talk to Me
Fell off this week: Girls Like You, Here Tonight
Projected spots
Girls Like You: #23
Here Tonight: will miss the year end
1. Without Me-Halsey (+4,568) =
2. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+4,384) =
3. Old Town Road-Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus (+3,892.75) +2
4. Happier*-Marshmello & Bastille (+3,643) -1
5. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (3,553) -1
6. Sicko Mode*-Travis Scott (+3,525) =
7. 7 Rings-Ariana Grande (+3,373) +1
8. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+3,356) -1
9. Wow-Post Malone (+3,008) =
10. Eastside*-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+2,815) =
11. Girls Like You*-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (2,610) =
12. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+2,533) =
13. Going Bad-Meek Mill ft. Drake (+2,512.5) =
14. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (2,405.5) =
15. Better-Khalid (+2,279) =
16. Middle Child-J. Cole (+2,144) =
17. Sweet but Psycho-Ava Max (+2,004.75) +1
18. Dancing with a Stranger-Sam Smith & Normani (+1,910.5) +4
19. Better Now*-Post Malone (1,897.5) -2
20. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (1,882.5) -1
20. YoungBlood*-5 Seconds of Summer (1,876) =
21. Money-Cardi B (1,854) =
23. A Lot-21 Savage (+1,823) =
24. Sucker-Jonas Brothers (+1,772) +2
25. Break Up With your Girlfriend, Iโm Bored-Ariana Grande (+1,705) +3
26. Thotiana-Blueface (+1,701.5) -1
27. Mรญa-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (1,696) -3
28. Please Me-Cardi B & Bruno Mars (+1,686.5) +1
29. Beautiful Crazy-Luke Combs (+1,649.75) +1
30. Be Alright-Dean Lewis (1,631.25) -3
31. Close to Me-Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft. Swae Lee (1,556.25) =
32. You Say-Lauren Daigle (1,527.5) =
33. Lucid Dreams*-Juice WRLD (1,487) =
34. Look Back at It-A Boogie wit da Hoodie (+1,483.5) +2
35. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (1,461.5) -1
36. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (1,458.5) -1
37. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B (1,406) =
38. Envy Me-Calboy (+1,405.25) =
39. Talk-Khalid (+1,384.5) +1
40. Murder on my Mind-YNW Melly (+1,330.75) -1
41. Baby Shark-Pinkfong (1,228.75) =
42. I Like It*-Cardi B, J Balvin & Bad Bunny (1,226.5) =
43. Leave Me Alone-Flipp Dinero (1,209) =
44. When the Partyโs Over-Billie Eilish (+1,200) =
45. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,125.5) +3
46. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (+1,114.25) +1
47. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+1,113) +3
48. Swervin-A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine (1,111.75) -3
49. Breathin-Ariana Grande (1,100) -3
50. Close Friends-Lil Baby (+1,078) -1
51. Trip*-Ella Mai (950) =
52. Tequila*-Dan+Shay (912) =
53. Con Calma-Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow (+899) +6
54. Love Lies*-Khalid & Normani (888.5) -1
55. Speechless-Dan+Shay (+885.5) +2
56. Me!-Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie (+871) +6
57. This is It-Scotty McCreery (864.5) -3
58. Here Tonight-Brett Young (847.25) -3
59. Girl Like You-Jason Aldean (837.5) -3
60. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (823) -2
61. Robbery-Juice WRLD (+800.5) -1
62. Act Up-City Girls (+796.75) +2
63. Mixed Personalities-YNW Melly ft. Kanye West (+793) -2
64. Backin It Up-Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B (747.25) -1
65. Put a Date on It-Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby (+747) +3
66. Eyes on You-Chase Rice (+745.25) +5
67. Who Do You Love-The Chainsmokers ft. 5 Seconds of Summer (+740.25) -1
68. Whiskey Glasses-Morgan Wallen (+727.75) +12
69. Make it Sweet-Old Dominion (723.25) -4
70. Miss Me More-Kelsea Ballerini (+717.5) +5
71. Good as You-Kane Brown (+710.75) +10
72. Calling My Spirit-Kodak Black (705.75) -5
73. Worth It-YK Oriris (+699) 79
74. Uproar-Lil Wayne (698.75) -5
75. Natural*-Imagine Dragons (698) -5
76. Armed & Dangerous-Juice WRLD (691.5) -
77. Ella Quiere Beber-Anuel AA & Romeo Santos (679.25) -4
78. Here With Me-Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES (+670.25) +5
79. This Feeling-The Chainsmokers & Kelsea Ballerini (669.5) -5
80. Twerk-City Girls ft. Cardi B (665.5) -4
81. Pure Cocaine-Lil Baby (660.75) -4
82. Millionaire-Chris Stapleton (658) -4
83. Suge-DaBaby (+647) +15
84. Look What God Gave Her-Thomas Rhett (+635.25) +5
85. Sixteen-Thomas Rhett (629) -3
86. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart-Mark Ronson ft. Miley Cyrus (607) -2
87. Shot Clock-Ella Mai (604.24) -2
88. Lovely-Billie Eilish & Khalid (599.5) -2
89. Girls Need Love-Summer Walker & Drake (+597.75) +5
90. Burning Man-Dierks Bentley ft. Brothers Osborne (585) -3
91. Arms Around You-XXXTENTACION & Lil Pump ft. Maluma & Swae Lee (584.5) -3
92. Godโs Country-Blake Shelton (+584) +8
93. Walk Me Home-P!nk (+581) +2
94. Take it From Me-Jordan Davis (566.75) -4
95. Best Shot-Jimmie Allen (566.5) -3
96. Good Girl-Dustin Lynch (564.5) -4
97. Undecided-Chris Brown (563.5) -4
98. Night Shift-Jon Pardi (+562.5) -2
99. Rumor-Lee Brice (+537.25) NEW
100. She Got the Best of Me-Luke Combs (530) -3
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jun 10, 2019 23:14:41 GMT -5
Do you guys think "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" will make the 2019 year end list? Come back to me in a month. Itโs too early to tell right now. My gut feeling is that it will end up burning out pretty quickly, but I could definitely see it sticking around. If it stays in the top 40 for the next month, itโll probably end up on the year end. |
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Post by Naos on Jun 10, 2019 23:20:31 GMT -5
"Look What God Gave Her" just jumped to #32 this week (though that was due to the album boost). Could that make the year-end list? It still has a few weeks at country radio, which should keep it at least above Top 50 for another month maybe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2019 2:20:24 GMT -5
"Look What God Gave Her" just jumped to #32 this week (though that was due to the album boost). Could that make the year-end list? It still has a few weeks at country radio, which should keep it at least above Top 50 for another month maybe. Considering the fact that it was hovering in the 40s-50s for 3 months, I think it has a pretty good shot at making it as long as it stays in the hot 100 for 20 weeks. |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jun 11, 2019 16:13:13 GMT -5
Speechless just passed Tequila and will probably make the year end list, it needs one more week in order to be for sure
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jun 11, 2019 17:42:32 GMT -5
Speechless just passed Tequila and will probably make the year end list, it needs one more week in order to be for sure It should be able to easily because of the Tori Kelly version recently released and gains on CHR. |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jun 11, 2019 20:50:31 GMT -5
June 8, 2019 YE Projections (28/52)44. When the Partyโs Over-Billie Eilish (+1,200) = 45. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,125.5) +3 46. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (+1,114.25) +1 47. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+1,113) +3 Just realized this is a pretty epic section of the predictions right here! |
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Jun 11, 2019 22:29:47 GMT -5
June 8, 2019 YE Projections (28/52)44. When the Partyโs Over-Billie Eilish (+1,200) = 45. Pure Water-Mustard & Migos (+1,125.5) +3 46. Bury a Friend-Billie Eilish (+1,114.25) +1 47. Bad Guy-Billie Eilish (+1,113) +3 Just realized this is a pretty epic section of the predictions right here! "when the party's over" will soon get recurrent and then "Pure Water" and especially "bad guy" will pass it, though I don't think "bury a friend" can pass it given "when the party's over" is currently above "bury a friend". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2019 5:38:39 GMT -5
I've made a list of all the country songs as of currently that can make the 2019 year end list. These are the list of songs (either currently charting or have already charted) that are either pretty safe or locked: 1) God's Country 2) Whiskey Glasses 3) Beautiful Crazy 4) Beer Never Broke My Heart 5) Look What God Gave Her 6) Speechless 7) Tequila 8) Old Town Road (This song's country status is disputed but let's not talk about the controversy.) Other songs currently charting that have small but possible chances (or are a bit too early to tell) are listed below: 1) Good As You 2) Rumor 3) Eyes On You 4) Miss Me More There's one song that doesn't fit either category (not charting nor probable) but can still possibly make it with a lot of luck: 1) This Is It
Edit: Upon request I decided to add two more songs to the last category, but I personally think they have zero chance unlike This Is It. 2) Here Tonight 3) Girl Like You
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