Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[fhas]

Jul 28, 2019 14:28:01 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wait a second Old Town Road went up? How did that happen

"With each song helped by respective new remixes, "Road" increases by 13% in overall metrics on the July 27 Hot 100 and "Bad Guy" bounds by 32%. Despite the latter's greater growth, "Road" sports a 1.3-to-1 points difference over "Bad Guy," after leading by 1.5-to-1 last week (and 1.9-to-1 two weeks ago)."

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8523187/lil-nas-x-old-town-road-hot-number-one-hot-100-16th-week

[moonlite]

Hey fhas, question. How do you get the numbers for programmed streams? Are they estimates based off the Pandora chart or is there a site that shows the numbers? 

[rimetm]

July 27, 2019 - 36/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[spitfire]

I've noticed that there will be by next week, two absolute massive gaps on the year end chart in terms of points, the first between Better Now/Zeze and Bad Guy/Drip Too Hard and the second between Eastside and Thank u Next.

[fhas]

Jul 28, 2019 14:57:29 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Hey fhas , question. How do you get the numbers for programmed streams? Are they estimates based off the Pandora chart or is there a site that shows the numbers? 

I use Pandora's artists pages, but they are always two days late so I need to wait until Saturday to have the final numbers for the week.

www.nextbigsound.com/profile/1172136

[moonlite]

Jul 28, 2019 17:17:51 GMT -5 fhas said:

Jul 28, 2019 14:57:29 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Hey fhas , question. How do you get the numbers for programmed streams? Are they estimates based off the Pandora chart or is there a site that shows the numbers? 

I use Pandora's artists pages, but they are always two days late so I need to wait until Saturday to have the final numbers for the week.

www.nextbigsound.com/profile/1172136

Thanks

[inverse]

Jul 28, 2019 14:31:43 GMT -5 fhas said:

Jul 28, 2019 14:28:01 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wait a second Old Town Road went up? How did that happen

"With each song helped by respective new remixes, "Road" increases by 13% in overall metrics on the July 27 Hot 100 and "Bad Guy" bounds by 32%. Despite the latter's greater growth, "Road" sports a 1.3-to-1 points difference over "Bad Guy," after leading by 1.5-to-1 last week (and 1.9-to-1 two weeks ago)."

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8523187/lil-nas-x-old-town-road-hot-number-one-hot-100-16th-week

Somewhat astonishing because between those two remixes about a total of 23 people liked them.

Sicko Mode just needs to scrape by for one more week and then it'll be locked in as above High Hopes unless that song gets a weird bullet resulting in a 53rd week

[samo🦕]

[Deleted]

I really hope Tequila and All To Myself can make it so Dan + Shay will have 3 country songs on the 2019 year end list.

[Kris]

Honestly can't believe how long High Hopes has lasted, but glad it has. Year end top 10 lock would be awesome for him.

[L.Kennedy]

Jul 29, 2019 18:28:36 GMT -5 Kris said:

Honestly can't believe how long High Hopes has lasted, but glad it has. Year end top 10 lock would be awesome for him.

Hopefully "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" can sneak into the TOP 50/40 also.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Jul 29, 2019 18:28:36 GMT -5 Kris said:

Honestly can't believe how long High Hopes has lasted, but glad it has. Year end top 10 lock would be awesome for him.

The best placement "High Hopes" can end up is #9, just like Imagine Dragons' "Believer" that had the same elements as "High Hopes":

- Successful single from a well-received, pop-driven alternative album.
- It's peak is #4.
- Had a good longevity on the charts (both lasting a year)

The difference between "Hopes" and "Believer" is that most of "Hopes"' points was in the 2019 YE, while "Believer"'s points was in both 2017 and 2018 YE.

[spicymapping]

Wasted an hour of my life typing this out just for my computer to shutdown right before sending it. Give me a minute to rethink my life choices, then i'll put the preds up.

[rockgolf]

Not to sound like an infomercial, but there's GOT to be an easier way!

And there probably is. Use Word or Excel to save your prediction text then copy it to here and paste it. You can add whatever formatting you want after.

Or format it and save as a PNG, as I do with my predictions. Save the PNG on Imgur.com, and paste it as an Image link. 

[spicymapping]

Jul 30, 2019 11:09:01 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Not to sound like an infomercial, but there's GOT to be an easier way!

And there probably is. Use Word or Excel to save your prediction text then copy it to here and paste it. You can add whatever formatting you want after.

Or format it and save as a PNG, as I do with my predictions. Save the PNG on Imgur.com, and paste it as an Image link. 

I have it in excel so i don't actually have to type it all out, but I do need a lot of time for the formatting

[spicymapping]

And we back

TL, DR
Locked: HLMIMI, Senorita
Added: EARFQUAKE, Sanguine Paradise

1. Without Me (=) 
2. Sunflower (=) 
3. Old Town Road (=) 
4. Happier (=) 
5. 7 Rings (=) 
6. SICKO MODE (=)
7. Wow. (=) 
8. thank u, next (=) 
9. High Hopes (=) 
10. Sucker (+1) 
11. Eastside (-1) 
12. Shallow (=) 
13. Going Bad (=) 
14. bad guy (+1) 
15. Talk (+1) 
16. Girls Like You (-2) 
17. Dancing With a Stranger  (=) 
18. MIDDLE CHILD (=) 
19. Better (=)
20. Sweet But Psycho (+1) 
21. Drip Too Hard (-1) 
22. Please Me (=) 
23. ZEZE (=)
24. Better Now (=) 
25. I Don't Care (+3) 
26. Youngblood (-1)  
27. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1) 
28. Money (-1) 
29. a lot (=) 
30. MIA (=)
31. Look Back At It (=) 
32. Thotiana (=) 
33. Beautiful Crazy (=) 
34. Lucid Dreams (=) 
35. Mo Bamba (=) 
36. Suge (+3) 
37. Wake Up In The Sky (-1) 
38. Be Alright (-1)
39. Pure Water (-1) 
40. Close To Me (=) 
41. Taki Taki (=) 
42. You Say (=) 
43. Envy Me (=) 
44. Con Calma (+2)
45. ME! (=) 
46. Speechless (+1) 
47. If I Can’t Have You (+3) 
48. when the party’s over (-4) 
49. Whiskey Glasses (=) 
50. God's Country (+5) 
51. Murder on My Mind (-3) 
52. Act Up (=) 
53. Truth Hurts (+7) 
54. I Like It (-3) 
55. Leave Me Alone (-2) 
56. Breathin (-2) 
57. Pop Out (+1)
58. Close Friends (-2)
59. bury a friend (-2) 
60. Baby Shark (-1) 
61. Trip (=) 
62. Swervin (=) 
63. Rumor (+1) 
64. Tequila (-1) 
65. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+4) 
66. Worth It (=) 
67. Look What God Gave Her (-2) 
68. Good as You (-1) 
69. Love Lies (-1) 
70. Señorita (+18) 

Predicted Cutoff - 1500 

71. Eyes on You (-1) 
72. Robbery (-1) 
73. Beautiful (-1)
74. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+9) WA: 1 
75. No Guidance (+16) WA: 2 
76. GIRL (+4) WA: 2
77. Walk Me Home (-4)
78. Here Tonight (-4)
79. All I Want For Christmas is You (-4) 
80. This Is It (-4) 
81. Talk You Out Of It (+3) WA: 3, WL: 0 
82. Miss Me More (-5) 
83. Girls Need Love (-5)
84. Put a Date On It (-5) 
85. Natural (-4)
86. Here With Me (-4) 
87. Mixed Personalities (-2) 
88. Girl Like You (-2) 
89. Backin It Up (-2)
90. Clout (+4) WA: 4 
91. The London (+8) WA: 3 
92. You Need To Calm Down (+12) WA: 2 
93. Armed And Dangerous (-4) 
94. Uproar (-4) 
95. Money In The Grave (+12) WA: 2 
96. Make It Sweet (-4) 
97. Ella Quire Beber (-4) 
98. Cool (=) WA: 7, WL: 4 
99. Who Do You Love (-4)
100. Calling My Spirit (-4) 

101. This Feeling (-4) 
102. Calma (+3) WA: 9, WL: 1 
103. Ocean Eyes (-3) 
104. Sanguine Paradise (NEW) WA: 9, WL: 5 
105. Millionaire (-4) 
106. Twerk (-4) 
107. Sixteen (-4) 
108. EARFQUAKE (NEW) WA: 8, WL: 10 
109. Arms Around You (-3) 

It's worth noting that we're at the point that last year, 97 of the 100 had been released - So it's likely that around 25 songs either currently charting or with complete locks that aren't locked are going to make the list. What will they be? Well, if I'd have to guess.....

The ten that I'd call definite are Money In The Grave, You Need To Calm Down, Beer Never Broke My Heart, Someone You Loved, No Guidance, Goodbyes, The London, Never Really Over, The Git Up and Beautiful People. Others I think are pretty much said and done are Shotta Flow, Ran$om, Clout, GIRL and Panini. For the final 10, however, we go off the rails. If you force me to pick 10, I'd roughly say Knockin Boots, My Type, Cash s**t, How Do You Sleep, EARFQUAKE, All To Myself, Rearview Town, One Thing Right, Antisocial and Easier, but there are so many sleepers in the conversation too - Go Loko, Just Us, Cross Me, Eyes On You, Talk You Out of It, Press, Call You Mine, TOWDMIBH, Gold Roses and Trampoline to name more than a few.

Also, here's a better idea of the final top 40

1. Old Town Roa
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. bad guy
5. Wow.
6. Sucker
7. Talk
8. Happier
9. 7 Rings
10. SICKO MODE
11. I Don't Care
12. thank u, next
13. High Hopes
14. Truth Hurts
15. Señorita
16. Dancing With a Stranger
17. Eastside
18. Sweet But Psycho
19. Going Bad
20. Suge
21. Shallow
22. If I Can’t Have You
23. Better
24. Girls Like You
25. MIDDLE CHILD
26. Drip Too Hard
27. Goodbyes
28. No Guidance
29. God's Country
30. Please Me
31. ZEZE
32. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
33. Money In The Grave
34. You Need To Calm Down
35. Better Now
36. Youngblood
37. Pop Out
38. Speechless
39. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
40. The London

[Mauricio]

Based on Fhas' prediction system, High hopes would end around at 799-802k points, which would be right around the top 10 :S and without 24/11 it could be a worse situation.

Happier is at 49 weeks and gaining like 13k points weekly. Counting the 24/11 it could end with 890k points given that it has 4 weeks left (counting August 3rd) and I think it could be top 5. Without the 24/11 it could end at 860k which means that it could be passed by 7 rings if it has enough longevity.

Speaking of 7 rings, I think it can last for 6-8 weeks more at least, it's pretty much locked in the top 10 and depending on how long it survives its best position could be #5-#7.

Wow has shown that it won't go away and it could be top 5, it's still top 20 the the August 3rd chart.

Songs I don't really have an idea of:

    Sucker, it's still top 10 and radio loves it, don't know if it will be top 10 on the actual year end. 
    
    Bad guy, it's #2 and about to peak on radio, might be top 5.

    Talk, it's top 5 on the last chart and radio also loves this song so it might keep it around longer.

    Señorita, it hasn't peaked yet.

    Truth hurts, it hasn't peaked yet and it's just been locked for the year end.

[twelvevinylrecords]

What were the 3 songs that weren't yet released this time last year?

[tallen2001]

I’m really rooting for Never Really Over, Someone You Loved, Cash Shit, My Type, EARFQUAKE, and Trampoline.

[walt91]

Jul 30, 2019 13:18:33 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

What were the 3 songs that weren't yet released this time last year?

Trip, Happier, Sicko Mode

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2019 11:48:48 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

76. GIRL (+4) WA: 2
Others I think are pretty much said and done are GIRL.

GIRL just lost big on radio today according to Kworb, so not sure if it will be able to stay on for another two weeks and make the list.

PS: Country songs that gain too much on radio are bound to fall prematurely once they reach #1, thus ruining their shots at a YE spot.

[spicymapping]

Jul 30, 2019 17:39:09 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jul 30, 2019 11:48:48 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

76. GIRL (+4) WA: 2
Others I think are pretty much said and done are GIRL.

GIRL just lost big on radio today according to Kworb, so not sure if it will be able to stay on for another two weeks and make the list.

PS: Country songs that gain too much on radio are bound to fall prematurely once they reach #1, thus ruining their shots at a YE spot.

I.... didn't see that this morning I guess. It'll get another week but yeah scratch that lock it'll be on the bubble most likely

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2019 18:09:00 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Jul 30, 2019 17:39:09 GMT -5 @delphox said:

GIRL just lost big on radio today according to Kworb, so not sure if it will be able to stay on for another two weeks and make the list.

PS: Country songs that gain too much on radio are bound to fall prematurely once they reach #1, thus ruining their shots at a YE spot.

I.... didn't see that this morning I guess. It'll get another week but yeah scratch that lock it'll be on the bubble most likely

Question, how large is the bubble under the cutoff? I'm assuming it's Eyes On You to Beautiful.

[spicymapping]

Jul 30, 2019 18:26:46 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jul 30, 2019 18:09:00 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I.... didn't see that this morning I guess. It'll get another week but yeah scratch that lock it'll be on the bubble most likely

Question, how large is the bubble under the cutoff? I'm assuming it's Eyes On You to Beautiful.

Yep, and on the other end it's Love Lies to LWGGH (and senorita ig but you know it's not sticking there for long)

[avatar]

Could Sweet But Psycho Make The Top 20 On The Year End List?

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2019 23:07:38 GMT -5 avatar said:

Could Sweet But Psycho Make The Top 20 On The Year End List?

I'd say it has a decent chance to, but it needs to stay on the charts for at least another month to be safe.

[narp]

I really think this year’s YE is shaping up to be the best of the decade if Hey Look Ma, I Made It, Look What God Gave Her, and Someone You Loved stay, I’m worried about their positions and if they’ll be able to hold them, it’ll be an awesome year regardless.

[inverse]

Projection of where 2019 hits would finish based off how they would be placed in 2018 (fhas's list).
Starred numbers means that multiple different songs would finish in one place, for example any one of four songs could have been at 42 on last year's list, or at least been predicted there, but obviously they can't all be there on this year's list. Remember back when we dreamed of Same Old Love finishing at #42?

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}
12 - Thank U Next
14 - Eastside
24 - Girls Like You
25 - Drip Too Hard
39 - Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
40 - Please Me
42 - Better Now
42* - Zeze
42* - Look Back At It
42* - Youngblood
44 - Money
45 - A Lot
49 - Beautiful Crazy
53 - Thotiana
54 - MIA
56 - Be Alright
56* - Pure Water
56* - Envy Me
59 - Close To Me
61 - You Say
62 - Lucid Dreams
63 - Wake Up In The Sky
65 - Mo Bamba
67 - Taki Taki
67 - ****** ** ** ****
67* - When The Party's Over
72 - Bury A Friend
72* - I Like It
75 - Baby Shark
80 - Close Friends
80* - Leave Me Alone
85 - Swervin
86 - breathin
95 - Look What God Gave Her
97 - Good As You

PROJECTED CUTOFF

104 - Eyes On You
107 - Trip & Tequila
109 - This Is It, Walk Me Home, Robbery, Love Lies

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}{Top 100}[] = 2019 Peak | Locked | Nearing/Most Likely | Slight Chance (for those not charting) | Currently Charting | Recurrent/Not Charting
1(+1) Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 5232 [1] (+450)
2(-1) Without Me (Halsey) 5194 [1] (+322)
3(+5) Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 4473 [1] (+1000)
4(-1) Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 4178 [2] (+303)
5(-1) 7 rings (Ariana Grande) 4143 [1] (+294)
6(-1) Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 3908 [1] (+215)
7(=) Wow. (Post Malone) 3899 [2] (+347)
8(+1) High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 3719 [4] (+269)
9(-3) thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 3589 [1]
10(+2) Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 3050 [1] (+490)
11(=) Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 2927 [1] (+215)
12(-2) Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 2847 [9] (+129)
13(=) Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 2750 [6] (+235)
14(+6) Talk (Khalid) 2651 [3] (+640)
15(=) Better (Khalid) 2639 [8] (+223)
16(+6) Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 2590 [2] (+720)
17(+1) Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 2571 [7] (+340)
18(-1) MIDDLE CHILD (J. Cole) 2513 [4] (+240)
19(-5) Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 2472 [7]
20(-1) Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 2418 [10] (+296)
21(-5) Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 2310 [8]
22(-1) Please Me (Cardi B/Bruno Mars) 1911 [3] (+29)
23(+4) Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 1819 [27] (+108)
24(-1) ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 1798 [7]
25(-1) Better Now (Post Malone) 1782 [10]
26(-1) Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1764 [12]
27(+21) I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 1740 [2] (+610)
28(-2) break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (Ariana Grande) 1731 [2]
29(-1) A Lot (21 Savage) 1704 [12]
30(-1) Money (Cardi B) 1697 [13]
31(-1) Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 1668 [21]
32(-1) MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 1623 [18]
33(+5) Pure Water (Mustard/Migos) 1559 [23] (+190)
34(-2) Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 1528 [23]
35(-2) Thotiana (Blueface) 1522 [8]
36(-2) Envy Me (Calboy) 1498 [31]
37(-2) You Say (Lauren Daigle) 1477 [29]
38(-2) Close to Me (Ellie Goulding/Diplo/Swae Lee) 1458 [24]
39(-2) Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 1452 [5]
40(+11) Suge (DaBaby) 1451 [7] (+379)
41(+9) Speechless (Dan + Shay) 1370 [24] (+272)
42(-3) Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 1363 [6]
43(-3) Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 1350 [18]
44(-3) Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 1337 [11]
45(+4) Con Calma (Daddy Yankee/Katy Perry/Snow) 1335 [22] (+226)
46(+7) Act Up (City Girls) 1320 [26] (+266)
47(+9) Whiskey Glasses (Morgan Wallen) 1241 [17] (+281)
48(+10) God's Country (Blake Shelton) 1233 [17] (+329)
49(-7) I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 1211 [24]
50(+4) ME! (Taylor Swift/Brendon Urie) 1204 [2] (+200)
51(-8) Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 1189 [32]
52(-8) Bury a Friend (Billie Eilish) 1176 [14]
53(-8) Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) 1168 [14]
54(-8) When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 1163 [29]
55(-8) Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 1157 [20]
56(+9) If I Can't Have You (Shawn Mendes) 1152 [2] (+362)
57(+28) Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 1149 [5] (+560)
58(-6) Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 1060 [38]
59(+9) Pop Out (Polo G/Lil Tjay) 1059 [11] (+315)
60(-5) Breathin (Ariana Grande) 988 [12]
61(+5) Worth It (YK Osiris) 942 [52] (+172)
62(-5) Close Friends (Lil Baby) 939 [47]
63(+10) Rumor (Lee Brice) 931 [25] (+259)
64(=) Look What God Gave Her (Thomas Rhett) 911 [32] (+116)
65(+23) Hey Look Ma, I Made It (Panic! At the Disco) 900 [16] (+336)
66(-7) Tequila (Dan + Shay) 898 [29]
67(-5) Good as You (Kane Brown) 893 [36] (+69)
68(-8) Trip (Ella Mai) 887 [15]
69(-8) Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 838 [19]
70(+25) Beer Never Broke My Heart (Luke Combs) 819 [22] (+309)
71(NEW) Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 810 [2]
72(-9) Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 803 [26]
73(-6) Eyes on You (Chase Rice) 779 [38] (+13)
74(+15) Clout (Offset/Cardi B) 742 [39] (+186)
75(+3) Walk Me Home (P!nk) 737 [49] (+100)
76(-7) All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 [3]
77(-7) Robbery (Juice WRLD) 727 [27]
78(-7) Here With Me (Marshmello/CHVRCHES) 723 [31]
79(NEW) No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 709 [9]
80(NEW) The London (Young Thug/J. Cole/Travis Scott) 689 [12]
81(+19) GIRL (Maren Morris) 677 [44] (+188)
82(-10) This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 676 [42]
83(-9) Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 669 [40]
84(-9) Natural (Imagine Dragons) 663 [20]
85(-9) Uproar (Lil Wayne) 662 [35]
86(-9) Girl Like You (Jason Aldean) 652 [46]
87(-8) Miss Me More (Kelsea Ballerini) 637 [47]
88(-8) Who Do You Love (The Chainsmokers/5 Seconds of Summer) 635 [52]
89(-8) Mixed Personalities (YNW Melly/Kanye West) 632 [42]
90(-8) Here Tonight (Brett Young) 626 [42]
91(+8) Cool (Jonas Brothers) 620 [27] (+125)
92(NEW) You Need to Calm Down (Taylor Swift) 613 [2]
93(-10) Twerk (City Girls/Cardi B) 611 [29]
94(NEW) Money In the Grave (Drake/Rick Ross) 607 [7]
95(-11) Put a Date On It (Yo Gotti/Lil Baby) 605 [46]
96(-9) Girls Need Love (Summer Walker/Drake) 598 [37] (+22)
97(NEW) EARFQUAKE (Tyler, the Creator) 595 [13]
98(NEW) Never Really Over (Katy Perry) 586 [15]
99(-13) Armed and Dangerous (Juice WRLD) 579 [53]
100(-10) Best Shot (Jimmie Allen) 549 [37]

[spicymapping]

sunflower you beautiful bastard keep going we believe in you