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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Aug 1, 2019 10:01:44 GMT -5
EARFQUAKE cmon make the year end I believe in you dawg
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Aug 1, 2019 16:48:08 GMT -5
Between the three options for #42, I would pick Look Back at It.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Aug 1, 2019 17:46:57 GMT -5
^ there’s actually 4 options Better Now counts too it’s just not starred because it’s the highest. Idk why I did it like that or if it makes sense lol
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Aug 1, 2019 20:28:13 GMT -5
How non-charting or last-weekers land in my formula in case anybody wants a second opinion thank u, next - #10 Eastside - #14 Shallow - #14 Girls Like You - #21 MIDDLE CHILD - #24 Drip Too Hard - #24 Please Me - #34 ZEZE - #34 Better Now - #34 Youngblood - #35 break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored - #39 Money - #40 a lot - #46 MIA - #47 Look Back At It - #49 Thotiana - #52 Beautiful Crazy - #53 Lucid Dreams - #53 Mo Bamba - #54 Wake Up In The Sky - #56 Be Alright - #56 Pure Water - #58 Close To Me - #59 Taki Taki - #61 You Say - #62 Envy Me - #62 Con Calma - #66 when the party’s over - #68 Murder on My Mind - #71 I Like It - #72 Leave Me Alone - #72 breathin - #73 Close Friends - #75 bury a friend - #76 Baby Shark - #76 Trip - #90 Swervin - #90 Tequila - #91 Worth It - #91 Look What God Gave Her -#96 Good as You -#96 Love Lies - #96 Eyes on You - #105 Robbery - #107 Beautiful - #108 GIRL - #111 Walk Me Home - #111 Here Tonight - #111 All I Want For Christmas is You - #111 This Is It - #115 Talk You Out Of It - #115 Miss Me More - #115 Girls Need Love - #116 Put a Date On It - #116 Natural - #121 Here With Me - #121 Mixed Personalities - #125 Girl Like You - #125 Backin It Up - #131 Armed And Dangerous - #134 Uproar - #135 Make It Sweet - #138 Ella Quire Beber - #139 Who Do You Love - #141 Calling My Spirit - #145 This Feeling - #145 Calma - #152 Ocean Eyes - #152 Millionaire - #159 Twerk - #159 Sixteen - #159 Arms Around You - #161
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Post by reputainbow on Aug 2, 2019 11:31:29 GMT -5
my formula from the past few times i've tracked songs for the year-end (2010-18) isn't 100% accurate of course, but this is what i have for estimates (using my 2018 YE predictions as a guide for this year's): {Spoiler}LOCKS
thank u, next - #12 Eastside - #16 Girls Like You - #24 Drip Too Hard - #25 Please Me - #34 Look Back At It - #39 ZEZE - #41 Better Now - #41 Youngblood - #42 break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored - #43 A Lot - #44 Money - #44 Beautiful Crazy - #45 MIA - #48 Pure Water - #51 Be Alright - #53 Thotiana - #53 Envy Me - #54 You Say - #56 Close to Me - #57 Lucid Dreams - #58 Mo Bamba - #65 Taki Taki - #65 Wake Up In the Sky - #67 I Like It - #73 Baby Shark - #73 Bury a Friend - #73 Murder On My Mind - #73 When the Party's Over - #74 Leave Me Alone - #75 --- MOST LIKELY
Swervin - #81 Breathin - #85 Close Friends - #91 Look What God Gave Her - #94 --- SLIGHT CHANCE
Tequila - #98 Good as You - #98 Trip - #98 Love Lies - #104 Beautiful - #108 Eyes on You - #114 Walk Me Home - #116 All I Want For Christmas Is You - #120
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 3, 2019 8:19:22 GMT -5
Updates to my list including the Aug 3, 2019 chart:
So it looks like next week, the top 3 will remain the same, but on the week of Aug 17, assuming Old Town Road is still #1, they will flip: Sunflower will pass Without Me but Old Town Road will leapfrog over both of them to (finally) reach #1 on my version of the chart. Next week, expect to see Bad Guy reach the top ten of the year. "Talk" won't be far behind.
A good week for Shawn Mendes, who vaults 7 points to #44 with If I Can't Have You and gets enough points with Senorita to guarantee that song also makes the year-end countdown. No Guidance also locks in its spot in the top 100. Nice to see some Toronto-area boys do alright in the States.
Interesting chart runs for both Maran Morris' "Girl" and Lewis Capaldi's Someone You Loved. Both are, counter to the norm, picking up momentum with each week on the chart. If "Girl" hadn't gained this week, it would have been dropped from the chart as this is its 21st week on the Hot 100 and it was below #50. Instead, it climbed to #44 and may cross over to pop. Capaldi's track (and I think I may have said this before) looks to have the same capacity for a long upper-mid-chart run that James Arthur's "Say You Won't Let Go" did. That song never cracked the weekly top ten, but was #11 for the year. It's too far into the year for that to happen for Capaldi, but I strongly expect it will spend 40+ weeks on the chart at this point.
Another long/slow burner is Florida Georgia Line's Talk It Out Of You which in its 23rd(!) week on the Hot 100 reaches a new peak of... 65.
In the Game of Charts, you climb or you die.
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T. Eddy
Charting
I post like once a month
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Post by T. Eddy on Aug 3, 2019 14:04:44 GMT -5
Month 8, July 2019
Not much to say this time, aside from the fact that the forecasts from August to December will be trickier for me to get out, as I’m about to head off to college. That might translate into future forecasts being shorter, but we’ll have to see. This time I’ll cover the August 3rd Hot 100, which covered chart activity in late July.
Guaranteed to make the YE:
Senorita(Up to #3 off of continued airplay gains and already pretty much locked. Also one of the 3 main contenders for the next #1(alongside Truth Hurts and Bad Guy)) Truth Hurts(#5 and still gaining in all metrics. This seems like a shoe in for the YE) Goodbyes(Steady at #7, and it may return to the top 5 thanks to growing airplay and steady streaming. Pretty much a guarantee for the YE) No Guidance(Down to #11, but it has been consistently stuck between #9 and #12, and as it seems likely to stay around there, that alone should be enough to make the YE) Money in the Grave(Down to #13, and while it does seem to be trending slightly downward, it is still performing strong enough to have no issue making the YE) The Git Up(Up to #14, and has been in the top 20 for a few weeks now with no sign of leaving anytime soon) You Need to Calm Down(#15, and also seems constantly stuck in the top 20 with very little chance of returning to the top 10, yet still doing well enough to make the YE) Hey Look Ma, I Made It(Up to #16 as it continues to gain more airplay. Will make the YE) The London(Up to #23, and while I can’t see it making a play for the top 10, it can still reenter the top 20, and is definitely making the YE) Beer Never Broke my Heart(#24 and still gaining. It may even break the top 20 at this rate)
Likely to make the YE:
Ran$om(Up to #19 and poised to continue gaining thanks to streaming, seems very likely at this point) Someone You Loved(Up to #20 off of continued radio gains. Seems very likely) Beautiful People(#25 and seems like the most likely successor to I Don’t Care among the sea of current Ed Sheeran singles. It’s only down this week because it’s currently the week after Ed’s album bomb, and otherwise has been steadily gaining on radio) Panini(#28. Unlike Rodeo, this song has stuck around the top 30, and if that continues, it very well could make the YE) My Type(#37 and still quickly gaining. If this continues it could easily make the YE) Rumor(#39 and seemingly on the way out, but it has so far lasted long enough in the top 40 that it’s a likely contender for the YE) Worth It(Up to #53, and has defied the 20-50 rule for 3 weeks now. So far it’s already nearly locked, but if it can continue like this for a couple more weeks, or even break into the top 50, it’ll be guaranteed)
Might Make the YE:
Never Really Over(Steady at #32. So far it seems like if this song does make the YE, it’ll make it in the lower half through pure longevity) Shotta Flow(#36 and still slowly gaining, but is it gaining fast enough? It still stands an okay chance) Knockin’ Boots(#38. Honestly I wasn’t expecting this one to actually crack the top 40, but now that it has and is still gaining, it stands a decent chance at making the YE) All to Myself(Up to #41 and still gaining. Yet another country song that seems poised to crack the top 40 and make a run for the bottom half of the YE, although unlike other recent Dan + Shay songs, it seems unlikely to make a pop crossover the same way Tequila and Speechless did) GIRL(Up to #44, narrowly escaping the 20-50 rule. If it can continue this second wind, I could see it maybe making the YE) Clout(Still at #50. If it stays consistent, then I suppose it’ll get a narrow but real shot at the YE) Cash Shit(Up to #51 and rising with the type of momentum that Big Ole Freak only briefly had, yet it still could plateau and then promptly fall off before it gets a shot at the YE, so far it’s a bit too early to tell) Cross Me(Down hard to #61. I thought this song would have a decent chance by staying in the top 40 for its whole run, but now that Cross Me is getting lost in the shuffle of Ed singles, it’s currently seeming unlikely to make the YE, unless of course if it makes a recovery) Talk You Out of It(Up to #65, and having now survived the 20-50 rule 3 weeks in a row, this song may just pull an even more extreme Close Friends, maybe even setting a record for lowest peaking song to make the YE. That is all if it can continue to beat the 20-50 rule for a few more weeks) Trampoline(Up to #67 and still making relatively steady gains, but it’s a bit too early to tell whether these gains will continue, or if it will plateau and then promptly fall off) EARFQUAKE(Down to #70. While it is continuously falling every week, I can still see EARFQUAKE make the YE if it can last a full 20 weeks, considering its first few weeks were in the top 40)
Unlikely to Make the YE:
Go Loko(#56. Has been stuck in the 50s for months now, and I don’t see that changing. It could pull a Close Friends, but that seems unlikely right now) Just Us(#57. Also has been stuck in the 50s for some time now. It may be unlikely, but of all of the DJ Khaled songs to have charted this year, this is still the only one that has any chance at all) Press(Steady at #63. I predict that this song will get a full 20 weeks by hovering around the 60s-70s, and then proceed to miss the YE, since it hasn’t had any upwards momentum since the video) Easier(Steady at #64, but yet another case of staying steady too low in the charts to make the YE unless it can beat the 20-50 rule) It’s You(Stuck at #72, and I can see it remaining in the 70s unless it makes a serious radio run or something else happens to give it another shot of life) Rodeo(Down to #73, and has been consistently falling its entire run. While a video could possibly revive it, so far it just doesn’t seem like a serious contender for the 2019 YE. Who knows, it might make 2020 if it becomes the next official single after Panini) La La Land(Has been making slow but steady gains for its entire run, and now is at #75. However, those gains are so far too slow and low on the charts to stand a chance at making the YE) Nightmare(Down hard to #81, and seems like it may leave the hot 100 as early as next week) Cool(Down to #84 as it gets overshadowed by other Jonas Brothers singles and loses ground on radio) Megatron(Left the charts last week, but this week returned, at #100. Needless to say this song isn’t going to make the 2019 YE unless something crazy happens)
Too Early to Tell:
How do You Sleep?(Just Debuted at #29. We have to wait and see how it performs in its second week and onwards to judge whether or not it’ll be a contender for the YE) One Thing Right(Up to #60, and I still can’t see where exactly this song is headed as it goes up and down the charts, since it has been pretty consistently low, but at the same time, seems primed to finally replace Happier since Here With Me flopped. I just don’t know yet, but by next month we should be able to tell where it’s headed) Antisocial(Fell hard to #62 this week, yet I could see this song making a recovery.) Only Human(It’s a bit silly to put a song in its 6th week on the charts in the “too early to tell” category, but only now has this song started to gain traction after a month at the bottom of the charts, so right now it’s hard to tell whether or not that traction will continue) Southbound(Up to #89 in its second week, yet still too early to tell where this song will go from here)
Dropouts:
Wake Up(Left this week, will miss the YE) Big Ole Freak(Left the week of July 13th, will miss the YE) Walk Me Home(Left this week, might make the YE) Look What God Gave Her(Left this week, might make the YE) Here With Me(Left the week of July 13th, will miss the YE) Good as You(Left the week of July 27th, might make the YE) Eyes on You(Left the week of July 20th, will probably miss the YE)
That’s all for now. I’ll run through any mistakes I made tomorrow, or maybe later today if I have the time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2019 21:22:59 GMT -5
According to Kworb, Talk You Out Of It has been slowly losing radio for the past few days. I don't see it making the year end now since it will probably drop out this week (I could be wrong though).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2019 22:02:44 GMT -5
I think my type will make it
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 4, 2019 4:27:59 GMT -5
You Need to Calm Down should see a boost the week that Lover is released.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Aug 4, 2019 7:35:30 GMT -5
You Need to Calm Down should see a boost the week that Lover is released. Also "ME!", which will benefit more given that "ME!" is in the Bottom 50 while "You Need To Calm Down" is in the Top 20 right now, that is unless "You Need To Calm Down" plummets down the charts like what happened to "ME!" before the album release.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
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Post by fhas on Aug 4, 2019 16:16:14 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - August 3rd 2019Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Aug 4, 2019 16:17:16 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- Old Town Road (50,700 points): second song of the Streaming Era to reach 50k points in 16 weeks (Despacito - 16 weeks - May 27-Sep. 9, 2017); - bad guy (42,200 points): first song since Finesse to not peak at #1 despite reaching 40k points in multiple weeks (2 weeks with 40k+ points - #3 peak for 8 weeks); - Talk (134.5M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 (by audience) since Meant To Be (136.0M audience - May 5, 2018); - Talk (19,214 radio points): strongest radio #1 (by points) since That's What I Like (19,643 points - 165.0M audience - June 24, 2017); New peak in points: Truth Hurts;
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Aug 4, 2019 16:18:36 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - August 3, 2019
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bbfan97
Charting
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Posts: 188
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Post by bbfan97 on Aug 4, 2019 18:28:22 GMT -5
How many more weeks at #1 for OTR if it continues to fall as it is now?. Assuming no new release debuts at #1
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Aug 4, 2019 18:29:50 GMT -5
How many more weeks at #1 for OTR if it continues to fall as it is now?. Assuming no new release debuts at #1 Maximum of three weeks.
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Aug 5, 2019 0:41:06 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:- Old Town Road (50,700 points): second song of the Streaming Era to reach 50k points in 16 weeks (Despacito - 16 weeks - May 27-Sep. 9, 2017); - bad guy (42,200 points): first song since Finesse to not peak at #1 despite reaching 40k points in multiple weeks (2 weeks with 40k+ points - #3 peak for 8 weeks); - Talk (134.5M audience impressions): strongest radio #1 (by audience) since Meant To Be (136.0M audience - May 5, 2018); - Talk (19,214 radio points): strongest radio #1 (by points) since That's What I Like (19,643 points - 165.0M audience - June 24, 2017); New peak in points: Truth Hurts; Pretty sure there was another relatively interesting highlight this week... lol
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Aug 5, 2019 22:31:18 GMT -5
August 3, 2019 - 37/53 weeks{Without 11/24}
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2019 23:16:25 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be the cutoff amount this year (using rimetm & fhas' predictions chart)?
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Aug 6, 2019 10:01:53 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 10:19:30 GMT -5
Shallow and Sunflower's longevity has been amazing.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Aug 6, 2019 12:18:26 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be the cutoff amount this year (using rimetm & fhas' predictions chart)? Right now the cutoff is, bizarrely, Walk Me Home, which would be a ridiculous song to have on the year end but right now is at #71 at week 37 which means that at a normal rate of change it will be #75 at week 39.
At this point I kinda just want the year end list to be as absurd as possible, like see how low can we actually make the #100 cutoff because it would be quite entertaining if it was something ridonculous like Walk Me Home or This Is It.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 12:21:25 GMT -5
What do you guys think will be the cutoff amount this year (using rimetm & fhas' predictions chart)? Right now the cutoff is, bizarrely, Walk Me Home, which would be a ridiculous song to have on the year end but right now is at #71 at week 37 which means that at a normal rate of change it will be #75 at week 39.
At this point I kinda just want the year end list to be as absurd as possible, like see how low can we actually make the #100 cutoff because it would be quite entertaining if it was something ridonculous like Walk Me Home or This Is It.
I also have a feeling that the cutoff will be lower than usual but it's still a bit too early to tell as there are a lot of songs making late gains.
EDIT: This week had a lot of songs that gained out of nowhere to my surprise and now I honestly have no idea where the cutoff will be now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 13:09:50 GMT -5
So I spent some time trying to calculate where the eventual year end cutoff will be (I will not be including November 24th's charting week).
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Here are a list all the songs currently under the projected cutoff (180K on fhas and rimetm's predictions chart), but will pass this in the future:
Beer Never Broke My Heart, No Guidance, Senorita, The London, You Need To Calm Down, Money In The Grave, Someone You Loved, The Git Up, Ran$om, Goodbyes, Beautiful People, Panini, Shotta Flow, Never Really Over, Knockin Boots & Clout.
There are currently 66 songs above the cutoff line, so adding the additional 16 songs listed above means there will at least be 82 songs that go above 180K .
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I also listed the songs that have decent chances of making the year end list, but are too early to tell:
My Type, Cash s**t, All To Myself, Rearview Town, How Do You Sleep?, Boyfriend, Otro Trago, China, Trampoline, Easier, One Thing Right & Talk You Out Of It.
Assuming all 12 of these songs make it (which I don't think all will), that puts the total amount of songs above the cutoff to 94.
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This leaves us with the current songs that are under the cutoff line which still have a running chance at making it:
95) Eyes On You 96) Trip (Without November 24th) 97) Tequila (Without November 24th) 98) This Is It 99) Walk Me Home 100) Robbery
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Once again this isn't exactly accurate considering there can still be songs that can debut late or are currently low on the charts that can make the year end list late with 16 weeks left in the charting year. I also assumed for this prediction that all 12 songs in the toss up category will make it, when in reality not all of them will. I personally think these two factors will mostly offset each other, although I expect the former to slightly be more dominant.
All said and done, my projection for the cutoff is Tequila (around 173K assuming November 24th doesn't count), although it is possible that the cutoff can be higher or lower. By the time September hits, we should have a more clear picture of where the cutoff line will be.
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
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Post by spicymapping on Aug 6, 2019 17:11:48 GMT -5
It's gamer time
TL, DR: Locked: No Guidance, Beer Never Broke My Heart Added: Never Really Over, Shotta Flow, The Git Up, Someone You Loved, Knockin Boots, Goodbyes
1. Without Me (=) 2. Sunflower (=) 3. Old Town Road (=) 4. Happier (=) 5. 7 Rings (=) 6. SICKO MODE (=) 7. Wow. (=) 8. thank u, next (=) 9. High Hopes (=) 10. Sucker (=) 11. Eastside (=) 12. Shallow (=) 13. bad guy (+1) 14. Talk (+1) 15. Going Bad (-2) 16. Dancing With a Stranger (+1) 17. Girls Like You (-1) 18. Better (+1) 19. MIDDLE CHILD (-1) 20. Sweet But Psycho (=) 21. Drip Too Hard (=) 22. I Don't Care (+3) 23. Please Me (-1) 24. ZEZE (-1) 25. Better Now (-1) 26. Youngblood (=) 27. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (=) 28. Money (=) 29. a lot (=) 30. MIA (=) 31. Suge (+5) 32. Look Back At It (-1) 33. Thotiana (-1) 34. Beautiful Crazy (-1) 35. Lucid Dreams (-1) 36. Mo Bamba (-1) 37. Wake Up In The Sky (=) 38. Be Alright (=) 39. Pure Water (=) 40. Close To Me (=) 41. Taki Taki (=) 42. If I Can’t Have You (+5) 43. You Say (-1) 44. Speechless (+2) 45. Truth Hurts (+8) 46. Envy Me (-3) 47. ME! (-2) 48. Con Calma (-4) 49. Whiskey Glasses (=) 50. God's Country (=) 51. when the party’s over (-3) 52. Murder on My Mind (-1) 53. Act Up (-1) 54. Pop Out (+3) 55. I Like It (-1) 56. Leave Me Alone (-1) 57. Breathin (-1) 58. Close Friends (=) 59. bury a friend (=) 60. Señorita (+10) 61. Baby Shark (-1) 62. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+3) 63. Worth It (+3) 64. Trip (-3) 65. Swervin (-3) 66. Rumor (-3) 67. Tequila (-3) 68. No Guidance (+7) 69. Look What God Gave Her (-2) 70. Good as You (-2) 71. Love Lies (-2) 72. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+2)
Predicted Cutoff - 1500
73. Eyes on You (-2) 74. Robbery (-2) 75. Beautiful (-2) 76. Talk You Out Of It (+5) - WA: 2, WL: 0 77. GIRL (-1) 78. Walk Me Home (-1) 79. You Need To Calm Down (+13) - WA: 1 80. Money In The Grave (+15) - WA: 1 81. Here Tonight (-3) 82. All I Want For Christmas is You (-3) 83. The London (+8) - WA: 2 84. This Is It (-4) 85. Miss Me More (-3) 86. Clout (+4) - WA: 3 87. Girls Need Love (-4) 88. Put a Date On It (-4) 89. Natural (-4) 90. Here With Me (-4) 91. Mixed Personalities (-4) 92. Girl Like You (-4) 93. Backin It Up (-4) 94. Cool (+4) - WA: 7, WL: 3 95. Armed And Dangerous (-2) 96. Uproar (-2) 97. Make It Sweet (-1) 98. Ella Quire Beber (-1) 99. Who Do You Love (=) 100. Calma (+2) - WA: 8, WL: 0
101. Calling My Spirit (-1) 102. Never Really Over (NEW) - WA: 4 103. This Feeling (-2) 104. EARFQUAKE (+4) - WA: 7, WL: 9 105. Someone You Loved (NEW) - WA: 3 106. Shotta Flow (NEW) - WA: 5 107. Ocean Eyes (-4) 108. The Git Up (NEW) - WA: 3 109. Sanguine Paradise (-5) 110. Millionaire (-5) 111. Twerk (-5) 112. Sixteen (-5) 113. Knockin' Boots (NEW) - WA: 5 114. Arms Around You (-5) 115. Goodbyes (NEW) - WA: 3
Only one song on last year's year end wasn't released at this time last year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2019 17:56:00 GMT -5
Talk You Out Of It's run is insane, considering it's a sub 60 peak country song that has a legit shot at making the list.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 6, 2019 20:18:47 GMT -5
Updates to my version of the year end with charts up to Aug 10, 2019:
Even if Old Town Road slips to #2 next week (and I don't think it will) it will still take over the #1 spot of the year, and Sunflower will just as likely grab second, meaning the top 3 will completely flip over.
Sucker is temporarily in the top ten but likely will be replace by Bad Guy next week. Will it eventually replace thank u, next? Probably, but Talk could push it right back out. It may be JoBros fate to end up with the #11 song of the year. After those changes, I have real doubt there's going to be any new songs entering the top ten of the year.
This is the last chart week for Sicko Mode and High Hopes, both falling to the 52/25 rule next week, even though they didn't first chart on the same week. (High Hopes charted, fell off and returned a few weeks later). Shallow should fall off any day now as should Going Bad. That leaves I Don't Care and Truth Hurts as the likeliest to make major chart gains but the gap is too big to overcome, especially since the top ten are likely to chart for months still.
You Need to Calm Down reaches the bare minimum 1100 that I think will be required to reach the top 100, but it should continue to climb the year end for a few more weeks.
Overall, I've never seen the charts move more slowly. The pace on songs that last more than a single week or two is glacial, from a time when that meaning wasn't affect by climate change.
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GPMB
Gold Member
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 618
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Post by GPMB on Aug 6, 2019 22:46:38 GMT -5
what if Youngblood gets the same YE position this year as it did last year
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,806
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Aug 7, 2019 0:44:37 GMT -5
what if Youngblood gets the same YE position this year as it did last year It's possible although more songs can push it below #36. Or even being higher than #36 despite most of its points coming last year (like Portugal, The Man's Feel It Still)
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GPMB
Gold Member
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 618
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Post by GPMB on Aug 7, 2019 20:12:19 GMT -5
my predictions for the top 20 of the final year end in case anyone cares
1. Old Town Road 2. Sunflower 3. Without Me 4. Wow. 5. Happier 6. bad guy 7. 7 rings 8. SICKO MODE 9. Talk 10. High Hopes 11. Sucker 12. thank u, next 13. Dancing with a Stranger 14. Senorita 15. Eastside 16. Shallow 17. Going Bad 18. Sweet but Psycho 19. I Don’t Care 20. Better
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