Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[korbel16]

If 7 rings is number 7 on the year end list that’d be kinda cool

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Aug 7, 2019 20:12:19 GMT -5 GPMB said:

my predictions for the top 20 of the final year end in case anyone cares

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. Happier
6. bad guy
7. 7 rings
8. SICKO MODE
9. Talk
10. High Hopes
11. Sucker
12. thank u, next
13. Dancing with a Stranger
14. Senorita
15. Eastside
16. Shallow
17. Going Bad
18. Sweet but Psycho
19. I Don’t Care
20. Better

If "High Hopes" does end up at #10, it will be just 10 spots up from "I Write Sins Not Tragedies" position which is #20. But yeah, seeing "7 rings" at #7 would be cool too.

[rockgolf]

Anyone else find it sad that there's still almost 4 months to go in the Billboard year and the top 20 have been pretty well locked down? Maybe not the exact sequence, but the right songs?

[spicymapping]

Aug 7, 2019 20:12:19 GMT -5 GPMB said:

10. High Hopes
11. Sucker

I seriously doubt this will hold. Sure, the margin between the 2 is big, but Sucker won't go recurrent for the rest of the chart year and High Hopes is gone next week so it should have no trouble passing it.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 8, 2019 7:45:09 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Anyone else find it sad that there's still almost 4 months to go in the Billboard year and the top 20 have been pretty well locked down? Maybe not the exact sequence, but the right songs?

I see I Don't Care, Truth Hurts and Señorita making it. After that, I'm not sure if any of the other currently charting songs in the Hot 100 or a song yet to chart in it would be able to make it.

[tanooki]

Top 10 Hot 100 Songs, Q2 (29 March - 27 June):

1- Old Town Road
2- Wow.
3- Sunflower
4- Sucker
5- Bad Guy
6- 7 Rings
7- Talk
8- Without Me
9- Dancing with a Stranger
10- Sweet but Psycho

[inverse]

RimeTM/fhas can one of you post the points for Talk You Out Of It next update? I'm pretty sure it will fall out next week and then miss the year end but it's probably near 160000 at this point

[GPMB]

Aug 8, 2019 7:45:09 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Anyone else find it sad that there's still almost 4 months to go in the Billboard year and the top 20 have been pretty well locked down? Maybe not the exact sequence, but the right songs?

i wouldn't bet on that, maybe something like Look Ma I Made It could have a Love Lies trajectory

[rimetm]

fhas' formula is on-track, which is good. The only difference from the official list is 7 Rings being behind Talk, and not by a large margin (3.6k). So here's our numbers for the top 10 along with the top 40 for funsies.

I got the date range wrong (unless either Billboard or people reporting the news made an error) and now it's not looking so good. Here's just the top 10 and how off it is.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Prior Listing (With One Too Many Weeks, Allegedly)}

Oh, and inverse , I've added Talk You Out of It to tracking, and as of August 3 (week 23) it is at 146,230 points.

[Deleted]

Do you guys think Hot Girl Summer can make a late entry into the list?

[avatar]

Aug 12, 2019 14:09:56 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Do you guys think Hot Girl Summer can make a late entry into the list?

20% Chance I’d Say...

[tanooki]

Aug 12, 2019 15:28:05 GMT -5 avatar said:

Aug 12, 2019 14:09:56 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Do you guys think Hot Girl Summer can make a late entry into the list?

20% Chance I’d Say...

what makes you say that? Plently of songs get released late into the year and make 2 year end lists

[Deleted]

Talk You Out Of It should have around 165k points now, which means it is 1-2 weeks from making the 2019 year end list.

[spicymapping]

el perdon 2 is canceled guys

TL, DR
Locked: Money In The Grave, You Need To Calm Down
Added: Ran$om, Go Loko, Love Ain’t, 24/7

1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. Happier (=)
5. 7 Rings (=)
6. Wow. (+1)
7. SICKO MODE (-1)
8. thank u, next (=)
9. High Hopes (=)
10. Sucker (=)
11. Bad Guy (+2)
12. Eastside (-1)
13. Shallow (-1)
14. Talk (=)
15. Going Bad (=)
16. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
17. Girls Like You (=)
18. Better (=)
19. Sweet But Psycho (+1)
20. MIDDLE CHILD (-1)
21. Drip Too Hard (=)
22. I Don’t Care (=)
23. Please Me (=)
24. ZEZE (=)
25. Better Now (=)
26. Youngblood (=)
27. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (=)
28. Money (=)
29. Suge (+2)
30. a lot (-1)
31. MIA (-1)
32. Look Back At It (=)
33. Thotiana (=)
34. Beautiful Crazy (=)
35. Lucid Dreams (=)
36. Mo Bamba (=)
37. Truth Hurts (+8)
38. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
39. If I Can’t Have You (+3)
40. Be Alright (-2)
41. Pure Water (-2)
42. Speechless (+2)
43. Close To Me (-3)
44. Taki Taki (-3)
45. You Say (-2)
46. ME! (+1)
47. God’s Country (+3)
48. Whiskey Glasses (+1)
49. Envy Me (-3)
50. Con Calma (-2)
51. Pop Out (+3)
52. when the party’s over (-1)
53. Señorita (+7)
54. Murder on My Mind (-2)
55. Act Up (-2)
56. I Like It (-1)
57. Leave Me Alone (-1)
58. breathin (-1)
59. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+3)
60. Close Friends (-2)
61. bury a friend (-2)
62. No Guidance (+6)
63. Baby Shark (-2)
64. Worth It (-1)
65. Trip (-1)
66. Swervin (-1)
67. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+5)
68. Rumor (-2)
69. Tequila (-2)
70. Look What God Gave Her (-1)
71. Good As You (-1)
72. Love Lies (-1)
73. Money In The Grave (+7)
74. You Need To Calm Down (+5)

Predicted Cutoff - 1500

75. The London (+8) - WA: 1
76. Talk You Out of It (=) - WA: 1, WL: 1
77. Eyes On You (-4)
78. Robbery (-4)
79. Beautiful (-4)
80. Clout (+6) - WA: 2
81. GIRL (-4)
82. Walk Me Home (-4)
83. Here Tonight (-2)
84. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-2)
85. This Is It (-1)
86. Miss Me More (-1)
87. Girls Need Love (=)
88. Put a Date On It (=)
89. Natural (=)
90. Here With Me (=)
91. Someone You Loved (+14) - WA: 2
92. Mixed Personalities (-1)
93. Girl Like You (-1)
94. The Git Up (+14) - WA: 2
95. Backin’ It Up (-2)
96. Goodbyes (+19) - WA: 2
97. Never Really Over (+5) - WA: 4
98. Cool (-4)
99. Armed And Dangerous (-4)
100. Ran$om (NEW) - WA: 2

101. Uproar (-5)
102. Shotta Flow (+4) - WA: 4
103. Make It Sweet (-6)
104. EARFQUAKE (=) - WA: 7, WL: 8
105. Ella Quiere Beber (-7)
106. Who Do You Love (-7)
107. Calma (-7)
108. Knockin’ Boots (+5) - WA: 4
109. Calling My Spirit (-8)
110. This Feeling (-7)
111. Ocean Eyes (-4)
112. Sanguine Paradise (-3)
113. Millionaire (-3)
114. Twerk (-3)
115. Go Loko (NEW) - WA: 6, WL: 6
116. Love Ain’t (NEW) - WA: 9, WL: 3
117. Sixteen (-5)
118. 24/7 (NEW) - WA: 9, WL: 2
119. Arms Around You (-5)

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2019 22:03:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

115. Go Loko (NEW) - WA: 6, WL: 6

Only in 2019 can multiple songs that peak near #50 have running chances of making the year end list.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

"Talk You Out Of It" moved to #57 this week. Its chances of making the YE are likely, its possibility of it being the lowest peaking song to ever enter the Billboard Year-End Hot 100 seems unlikely (unless it goes recurrent and gets locked in the YE at the same time)

[n13l5]

A 10 minute hard rock song by Tool, who havent charted since 2001, just charted...
I know 2019 has been a weird year, but this takes the cake

[Deleted]

Aug 13, 2019 7:39:07 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

"Talk You Out Of It" moved to #57 this week. Its chances of making the YE are likely, its possibility of it being the lowest peaking song to ever enter the Billboard Year-End Hot 100 seems unlikely (unless it goes recurrent and gets locked in the YE at the same time)

I would still consider the song a toss up considering it could still lose on radio within the next week and then just fall flat on short. (It actually lost a total of -0.30 on radio in the last 2 days but it could always rebound and even if it doesn't it could still stay for some reason like on its 24th week.)

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - August 10th 2019

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000



Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Old Town Road (on-demand #1): 17th week atop the on-demand chart ties the all-time record for most weeks at #1 (rockstar - 2017/2018);
- No Guidance (30,300 points): first song since XO TOUR Llif3 to peak with more than 30k points despite never reaching top 5;
New peak in points: Truth Hurts, No Guidance, Ran$om;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - August 10, 2019

[rimetm]

August 10, 2019 - 38/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

Also, here's how the Summer Songs countdown is faring compared to our data. I'll update this in the coming weeks.

[inverse]

Projected spots for recent dropouts based on where they'd fit into last year:

Sicko Mode - #10 (#8 if nov 24 is counted)
High Hopes - #11
Middle Child - #24
Con Calma - #67
Act Up - #70
Rumor - #92
Girl - Will miss the year end (~109)

[samo🦕]

[rockgolf]

My estimate of the Billboard top 100 of 2019, including the August 17, 2019 chart:

So, yes, Old Town Road climbs to #1 for the year (permanently), but momentarily Sunflower drops to #3. I'm sure it will return to #2 for the year in the next week or two, and end up there at the end of the year. The top 3 are pretty well locked up tight after that. Happier is effectively out of weeks, so Wow should replace it in the #5 spot. Bad Guy, which this week made the top ten of the year, could push its way into the top five by year's end too. Especially if, as I expect, it climbs to #1 in two weeks time and earns the honor of displacing Lil Nas XX. (XX cuz 20 wks #1)

Because I botched the "last week points" last week, you're seeing the two-week point gain in the last column instead. I think it means that The London and Money In The Grave have this week locked into the top 100 of the year. ETA: Actually I think it represents a total gain over 3 weeks.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Aug 15, 2019 12:17:48 GMT -5 inverse said:

Projected spots for recent dropouts based on where they'd fit into last year:

Sicko Mode - #10 (#8 if nov 24 is counted)
High Hopes - #11
Middle Child - #24
Con Calma - #67
Act Up - #70
Rumor - #92
Girl - Will miss the year end (~109)

Ayayay the #10 would possibly place a re-entry instead of a future re-entry (if #10 still did the latter, the best candidate for that would be "Truth Hurts")

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - August 17th 2019

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000



Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Old Town Road: record-breaking 19th week in the top 2. UpTown Funk (18) is the only other song with more than 17 weeks;
New peak in points: Ran$om;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - August 17, 2019

[rimetm]

August 17, 2019 - 39/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}