Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[samo🦕]

[nathanalbright]

New #1 folks *gets out the popcorn to get ready for the new chart predictions*

[Deleted]

Talk You Out Of It has survived for another week, which means it now has a running chance for the YE list (around the same points as Tequila).

[GPMB]

do you guys think that ME! will be able to make it into the top 50? i'm gearing towards no

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2019 19:05:02 GMT -5 GPMB said:

do you guys think that ME! will be able to make it into the top 50? i'm gearing towards no

Assuming it stays in its current position for the rest of its chart run, it should get an additional 32000-36000 points (depending on how much it is boosted from the Lover album), which would put it at a total of around 330000 points, right between MIA and Thotiana (both of these songs are projected to be near the 50 mark).

[spicymapping]

el perdon 2 is re-opened guys

TL, DR: 
Locked: The London, Talk You Out of It
Added: All To Myself

1. Without Me (=)
2. Sunflower (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. Happier (=)
5. 7 Rings (=)
6. Wow. (=)
7. SICKO MODE (=) 
8. thank u, next (=)
9. High Hopes (=)
10. Sucker (=)
11. bad guy (=)
12. Talk (+2)
13. Eastside (-1)
14. Shallow (-1)
15. Going Bad (=)
16. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
17. Better (+1)
18. Girls Like You (-1)
19. Sweet But Psycho (=)

20. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
21. Drip Too Hard (=)
22. I Don't Care (=)
23. Please Me (=)
24. ZEZE (=)
25. Better Now (=)
26. Youngblood (=)
27. Suge (+2)
28. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
29. Money (-1)
30. Truth Hurts (+7)
31. a lot (-1)
32. MIA (-1)
33. Look Back At It (-1)
34.If I Can’t Have You (+5)
35. Thotiana (-2)
36. Beautiful Crazy (-2)
37. Lucid Dreams (-2)
38. Mo Bamba (-2)
39. Speechless (+3)
40. Wake Up In The Sky (-2)
41. Be Alright (-1)
42. Pure Water (-1)
43. Señorita (+10)
44. God's Country (+3)
45. Close To Me (-2)
46. ME! (=)
47. Whiskey Glasses (+1)
48. Taki Taki (-4)
49. You Say (-4)
50. Pop Out (+1)
51. Envy Me (-2)
52. Con Calma (-2)
53. when the party’s over (-1)
54. No Guidance (+8)
55. Murder on My Mind (-1)
56. Act Up (-1)
57. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+2)
58. I Like It (-2)
59. Leave Me Alone (-2)
60. Breathin (-2)
61. Close Friends (-1)
62. bury a friend (-1)
63. Baby Shark (=)
64. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+3)
65. Worth It (-1)
66. Money In The Grave (+7)
67. Trip (-2)
68. Swervin (-2)
69. Rumor (-1)
70. You Need To Calm Down (+4)
71. Tequila (-2)
72. The London (+3)
73. Look What God Gave Her (-3)
74. Good as You (-3)
75. Love Lies (-3)
76. Talk You Out Of It (=)

Predicted Cutoff - 1500

77. Clout (+3) - WA: 1, WL: 1
78. Eyes on You (-1)
79. Robbery (-1)
80. Someone You Loved (+11) - WA: 1
81. Goodbyes (+15) - WA: 1
82. Beautiful (-3)
83. Ran$om (+17) - WA: 1
84. The Git Up (+10) - WA: 1
85. GIRL (-4)
86. Walk Me Home (-4)
87. Here Tonight (-4)
88. All I Want For Christmas is You (-4)
89. This Is It (-4)
90. Miss Me More (-4)
91. Girls Need Love (-4)
92. Put a Date On It (-4)
93. Never Really Over (+4) - WA: 3
94. Shotta Flow (+8) - WA: 3
95. Natural (-6)
96. Here With Me (-6)
97. Mixed Personalities (-5)
98. Girl Like You (-5)
99. Knockin' Boots (+9) - WA: 3
100. Backin It Up (-5)
101. EARFQUAKE (+3) - WA: 5, WL: 7
102. Cool (-4)
103. Armed And Dangerous (-4)
104. Uproar (-3)
105. Make It Sweet (-2)
106. Ella Quire Beber (-1)
107. Who Do You Love (-1)
108. Calma (-1)
109. Sanguine Paradise (+3) - WA: 8, WL: 4
110. Go Loko (+5) - WA: 6, WL: 5
111. (-2) Calling My Spirit
112. (-2) This Feeling
113. All To Myself (NEW) - WA: 4
114. Love Ain't (+2) - WA: 8, WL: 2
115. 24/7 (+3) - WA: 8, WL: 1
116. Ocean Eyes (-5)
117. Millionaire (-4)
118. Twerk (-4)
119. Sixteen (-2)
120. Arms Around You (-1)

It's official. This time last year, every single song on the year end was released. 

[Deleted]

I'm guessing we will have to wait until the actual list comes out to see what charting weeks Billboard decides to use.

[GPMB]

Sweet but Psycho took a sharp hit this week, looks like it may not be able to make YE top 20 after all

[voiddetweiler]

Does "China" have a shot at making the Year-End?

[nathanalbright]

Aug 20, 2019 14:32:25 GMT -5 voiddetweiler said:

Does "China" have a shot at making the Year-End?

Well, the way this year's charts are going, if China can make it to 24 or more weeks, sure it has a chance, like a lot of other songs.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Actually, there are presumably 13 more Hot 100 weekly charts that would count toward the 2019 Year-End, so the song would have charted for 17 weeks by then. By averaging the number of weekly points during the remaining weeks it would end up near the cutoff. So, yes, it still has a chance.

[nathanalbright]

I'm going to assume, though, that it is likely going to have to maintain or increase its chart position, though, since it has a peak in the 40's right now, from what I can see.

[Deleted]

China, Otro Trago and maybe Callaita can all make the YE list if they maintain their chart positions for the rest of the year.

[spicymapping]

Did someone say "if they mantain their chart positions for the rest of the year?"

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Bad Guy
4. Without Me
5. 7 Rings
6. Wow.
7. Talk
8. Happier
9. Sucker
10. SICKO MODE
11. thank u, next
12. High Hopes
13. Dancing With a Stranger
14. Senorita
15. I Don't Care
16. Truth Hurts
17. Going Bad
18. Sweet But Psycho
19. Eastside 
20. Shallow
21. No Guidance
22. Better
23. If I Can't Have You
24. Suge
25. Girls Like You
26. MIDDLE CHILD
27. Drip Too Hard
28. Speechless
29. Pop Out
30. Ran$om
31. Goodbyes
32. Money In The Grave
33. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
34. God's Country
35. Whiskey Glasses
36. You Need To Calm Down
37. Please Me
38. ZEZE
39. Beer Never Broke My Heart
40. Someone You Loved
41. Better Now
42. Youngblood
43. The Git Up
44. break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored
45. Money
46. The London
47. a lot
48. MIA
49. Look Back At It
50. Thotiana
51. Beautiful Crazy
52. Lucid Dreams
53. Mo Bamba
54. ME!
55. Beautiful People
56. Wake Up In The Sky
57. Be Alright
58. Pure Water
59. Knockin' Boots
60. Close To Me
61. Taki Taki
62. Hot Girl Summer
63. You Say
64. All To Myself
65. Shotta Flow
66. Envy Me
67. Con Calma
68. Never Really Over
69. When The Party's Over
70. Panini
71. Boyfriend
72. Murder On My Mind
73. Act Up
74. I Like It
75. Leave Me Alone
76. Breathin
77. Rearview Town
78. Close Friends
79. Bury a Friend
80. My Type
81. Baby Shark
82. Worth It
83. Cash s**t
84. Otro Trago
85. Trampoline
86. Trip
87. Swervin
88. Rumor
89. Tequila
90. EARFQUAKE
91. Baby
92. How Do You Sleep?
93. One Thing Right
94. Look What God Gave Her
95. Clout
96. Good As You
97. Love Lies
98. Talk You Out of It
99. Press
100. Go Loko

101. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home
102. Callaita
103. Eyes On You
104. Easier
105. Robbery
106. Beautiful
107. China
108. Just Us
109. Only Human
110. GIRL
111. Walk Me Home
112. Raised On Country
113. Here Tonight
114. All I Want For Christmas Is You
115. Call You Mine
116. Sanguine Paradise
117. This Is It
118. Some of It
119. Miss Me More
120. Girls Need Love
121. Put a Date On It
122. Natural
123. Here With Me
124. Rodeo 
125. Mixed Personalities
126. Soltera
127. Girl Like You
128. Backin It Up
129. It's You
130. Love Ain't 
131. Cool
132. Armed And Dangerous
133. Uproar
134. Lalala
135. Make It Sweet
136. I Don't Know About You
137. Ella Quiere Beber
138. Who Do You Love
139. Queen of Mean
140. 24/7
141. Calma
142. Calling My Spirit
143. This Feeling
144. No Me Conoce
145. Gold Roses
146. La La Land
147. Ocean Eyes
148. Southbound
149. Tap
150. Millionaire

[twelvevinylrecords]

I want Trampoline and Earfquake to make the YE really bad, those are the two I’m really rooting for now

[voiddetweiler]

Aug 20, 2019 19:35:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

62. Hot Girl Summer

Wait what?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^That's 14 weeks at #11 with this week's amount of points. A hypothetical and unlikely scenario for every song. But one I did bring up for the sake of argument.

[inverse]

Really worried for Never Really Over. It’s gotten 11 weeks in the top 50 which is a lot but songs like that have a tendency to fall really hard once they exit the top 50, like both End Game and River last year had 10 and 11 weeks top 50 last year but once they fell below they were out in three weeks. If that happens it would wind up with like 155000 points.

[Deleted]

Aug 21, 2019 0:35:58 GMT -5 inverse said:

Really worried for Never Really Over. It’s gotten 11 weeks in the top 50 which is a lot but songs like that have a tendency to fall really hard once they exit the top 50, like both End Game and River last year had 10 and 11 weeks top 50 last year but once they fell below they were out in three weeks. If that happens it would wind up with like 155000 points.

When Never Really Over started falling hard on radio, I did some calculations and found that for it to miss the year end, it would have to drop at least 10 spots every week. Its radio loses although still present, have slowed down a bit as of recently, so I expect the song to be able to hold out long enough to make the list (probably in the 80s).

[Deleted]

I did my own calculations of points for the songs near the cutoff point using a formula that is similar to what fhas/rimetm does. These are the results I got below, in which most were pretty similar to what they got:

Rumor has 2012 points and I'd say this is the lowest song that is completely locked for the ye list.

Good As You has 1968 points, which is actually just slightly above Look What God Gave Her, which is at 1965 points. I personally think the latter will be higher on the year end, but both should have no issue with making the list.

Trip has either 1952 points or 1788 points depending on whether or not the week of November 24th, 2018 counts towards the 2019 year end list. It should be pretty safe if the former scenario happens, but it could be in trouble if the latter occurs.

Tequila has either 1866 or 1742 points depending on whether or not November 24th counts. If the week counts, then it should be able to get a year end spot in the bottom 10, but it stands little chance if the week doesn't count.

Love Lies' chances completely fall on the question of November 24th again. With it included, it will have a running chance with 1803 points. It will completely miss if it isn't included, with only 1653 points in that case.

Eyes On You has 1795 points, which means it has a decent chance at making it if the cutoff is low this year. However, if the cutoff is moderate to high by November, this could very well just miss it.

This Is It to my surprise has 1774 points, which I feel is too high. Pretty much everyone's predictions gives its chances next to zero (minus fhas & rimetm's predictions, which even then gives it a very low chance). While I don't think this will make it, with a very low cutoff and a lot of luck, this could somehow scrape the very bottom of the list.

Talk You Out Of It has 1768 points, which means if it gets another week, it will be a safe bet for the year end. However if it drops out this week, it will be in a dicey spot.

Last but not least, we have Walk Me Home with 1733 points. Like This Is It, this song needs a miracle for it to make the list proper, but it isn't outright impossible.

PS: If fhas or rimetm have any issue with what I'm doing, then I will apologize and discontinue doing this in the future.

[nathanalbright]

I like that, a look at what the YE chart would look life if present chart positions were held. I think that gives us a good understanding that a high-enough charting debut could definitely make the YE chart so long as it is able to rack up enough points (see Hot Girl Summer @ #62). Thanks for your work there. Also, I like your look at the borderline cases there delphox :)

[rockgolf]

My estimate of the Billboard year-end Top 100 of 2019, including the chart for August 24, 2019:

Lots of activity, but not much movement. Sunflower still hasn't overtaken Without Me. Billie Ellish went to #1 on the weekly chart but the point gap between #10 and #9 is so vast she didn't move up the year end chart.

But 4 tracks look to have locked into the year end top 100: Goodbyes, Ran$om, The Git Up and (yay!) Someone You Loved.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Based on spicymapping's prediction, since "ME!" is getting a boost (with the "Lover" album bomb), it has a possibility to end up within the Top 50.

[kimberly]

You can do it, NRO
🎼 Two weeks and just like that 🎶

[spicymapping]

Aug 23, 2019 23:12:32 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Based on spicymapping's prediction, since "ME!" is getting a boost (with the "Lover" album bomb), it has a possibility to end up within the Top 50.

Not to mention my formula is a pure points-per-position system so it’s missing a couple hundred points from its #2 week.

[earth]

Early Predictions (Probably Wrong)


1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. bad guy
5. Happier
6. 7 Rings
7. Wow.
8. SICKO MODE
9. High Hopes
10. Sucker

[nathanalbright]

Does anyone have an idea of why Chart Data has decided to not post any of the charting country songs this week?

[spicymapping]

If i had to guess it's because every single post about a country song will be responded to by about 1,000 pop stans saying "who?"

[nathanalbright]

Yeah, and when God's Country (which wasn't posted) was listed there would be a dozen requests from various stans to stream Lover or Hot Girl Summer or something else....

[spicymapping]

I'm not done with this week yet but idk why it's taken me this long to realize how massive the Drip Too Hard to Please Me gap is. IDC is still stable at #22.