Month 9, August 2019From now on I’ll keep these forecasts a bit more brief, since I can’t spend as much time polishing them now that I’m a full-time college student. The only real difference this time around is that I’ll cover fewer songs than usual. As for the forecast itself, I’ve noticed that the songs are skewing towards less likely than before, and that is because we’re approaching the end of the chart year. Maybe starting in November I’ll start looking into songs that’ll miss 2019 but make 2020, songs that’ll make both years, and songs that’ll miss both. Depends on how I’m feeling then.
I’ll cover the August 31st Hot 100 this time.
Guaranteed to make the YE:Ran$om(Up to #5 with consistently huge streaming. Probably already a lock for the YE)
Goodbyes(#9 and making solid gains on the radio as well as holding on to decent streaming like most Post Malone songs. I doubt it’ll return to its #3 peak, but it’ll definitely make the YE)
Someone You Loved(#11 and seemingly poised to enter the top 10 off of strength across the board, it’ll make the YE for sure)
Beautiful People(#18. After having emerged as the successor to I Don’t Care, I can see this song even making a run for the top 10 thanks to strength across the board. Will make the YE)
Likely to make the YE:Lover(#19 and only not guaranteed because 1, it just debuted so we can’t tell what kind of traction it’ll have yet, 2, there’s already two other Taylor Swift songs on the radio right now, and 3, it’s late into the chart year. I believe that Lover still has about a 90% chance of making the YE though regardless)
Boyfriend(Down to #20, with rising radio balancing out falling streaming and sales. It’s not performing immediately as well as previous Ariana singles this year, however it’s still pretty likely)
Knockin’ Boots(#34 and still gaining. So far it’s looking like a pretty likely contender if it continues gaining like this)
My Type(#35 and still rising off of both radio and streaming, although its rise has been slower lately. Still pretty likely to get in)
Panini(Obviously Panini isn’t performing well as OTR, however Panini has managed to stay in the top 40 for 9 weeks now. If it declines slowly enough or catches on more on radio it could absolutely make the YE)
All to Myself(It may have taken a hit to #43 this week, and also doesn’t have the obvious pop crossover appeal that Tequila and Speechless have, I can still see this having a good chance of getting in thanks to performing well on country stations)
Shotta Flow(#45 and seemingly on the way out, I could still see this slipping in low)
Clout(#52 and possibly in its last week, however I do believe that Clout will likely make the YE thanks to how it has performed on streaming, and only now it has debuted on the radio songs chart, maybe it could even beat the 20-50 rule to further secure its chances)
Never Really Over(Falling hard to #65, however, I can see this slipping in if it can last just 1 more month on the hot 100)
Might make the YE:Baby(Just got boosted to #24 this week, but considering we don’t know if this momentum will last, I can’t say for sure what’ll happen)
How Do You Sleep?(#36 and rising, and Sam Smith is a consistent radio darling. However, it’s also still late in the year, so this could go either way)
Cash S**t(#39 and still slowly rising, but now it has competition with Hot Girl Summer. At this point I can’t tell whether one, both, or neither of these Megan Thee Stallion songs will make the YE)
Rearview Town(Up to #40 and still gaining, although it is gaining slowly and somewhat late into its run on country radio)
Trampoline(#42 and still rising. My personal prediction is that this will rise to the top 20 then fall off as soon as it’s dropped by radio)
Only Human(#46 and consistently rising. I can totally see this becoming an unlikely radio hit like Hey Look Ma, I Made It, or I could also see it stalling out here)
One Thing Right(#49 and making slow but steady gains. It’s hard for me to tell where it’ll peak, so its chances at the YE depend on if it can get into the top 30 and stay there)
Earfquake(#86 and falling off pretty quickly, however, it could still sneak into the YE if it gets a full 20 weeks)
Unlikely to make the YE:China(Down to #50, but so far has been consistent. I don’t believe that staying consistent in the top 50 will be enough to make a serious play, and I see no indication that that’ll change)
Go Loko(Down to #63 and seemingly on the way out, I doubt it’ll make the YE at this rate)
Lalala(Up to #64 since it now has a video, but now that it’s been charting for awhile and stuck in the 60s-70s the whole time, and I can see it remaining there. This will most likely miss)
Press(Down to #68 but mostly consistent, however, it can stand a slight chance if it can last on the hot 100 and beat the 20-50 rule)
It’s You(#76 and has been stranded in the 70s for its entire run. At this point this will almost certainly miss unless something crazy happens)
Too early to tell:Note: I'm also considering the possibility of these making the 2020 YE.
Hot Girl Summer(Down to #22 in its second week, so far it’s too soon to tell where it’ll go from here)
Motivation(Just debuted at #33. I do expect it to fall in its second week due to a loss of streaming and sales, however, this absolutely could be a radio hit. Normani has had radio hits before, but those were collaborations with previously proven radio darlings(Khalid and Sam Smith), so this will be a test to see if Normani can achieve that on her own)
On Chill(Just leaped up to #57, but will that great momentum continue? It’s hard to tell just yet)
Time(#69 and making serious momentum off of pop radio, but so far we can’t tell whether this will be another Let You Down or another Lie)
Dropouts:Antisocial(Dropped out the week of August 24th, will miss the YE)
Cross Me(Dropped out the week of August 17th, will miss the YE)
Rodeo(Dropped out this week, will miss the YE)
La La Land(Dropped out this week, will miss the YE)
Nightmare(Dropped out the week of August 17th, will miss the YE)
Just Us(Dropped out this week, will miss the YE)
Talk You Out of It(Dropped out this week, very borderline)
GIRL(Dropped out the week of August 10th, will probably miss the YE)
Worth It(Dropped out the week of August 24th, will probably make the YE)
Rumor(Dropped out the week of August 10th, will make the YE)
Act Up(Dropped out the week of August 10th, will make the YE)
That’s all for now. I’ll comb through any errors I made probably tomorrow.