Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 3, 2019 14:27:37 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

since ME! jumped to 11 it locked for top 50 right?

Likely it will. But within #46-#50.

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2019 15:39:01 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Sept 3, 2019 14:27:37 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

since ME! jumped to 11 it locked for top 50 right?

Likely it will. But within #46-#50.

so 3 top 50s for Brendon?

[inverse]

^ Hey Look Ma I Made It is gonna have to survive Post Malone in order to make the top 50. If not then it'll wind up around You Say/Con Calma/Close To Me

[nathanalbright]

Looking at the chart data numbers, Never Really Over fell hard to #94. Unless it recovers, it's not likely to see another week, in which case it's not making the YE Top 100.

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2019 19:21:37 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Looking at the chart data numbers, Never Really Over fell hard to #94. Unless it recovers, it's not likely to see another week, in which case it's not making the YE Top 100.

It will get 1 more week probably in the 90s since the Taylor Swift songs will fade, but Post Malone will almost definitely knock it off and kill its chances the week after due to the album bomb (I see Earfquake getting knocked out that week too and missing).

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 3, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Sept 3, 2019 19:21:37 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Looking at the chart data numbers, Never Really Over fell hard to #94. Unless it recovers, it's not likely to see another week, in which case it's not making the YE Top 100.

It will get 1 more week probably in the 90s since the Taylor Swift songs will fade, but Post Malone will almost definitely knock it off and kill its chances the week after due to the album bomb (I see Earfquake getting knocked out that week too and missing).

She needs 15 weeks?

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2019 19:58:32 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sept 3, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -5 @delphox said:

It will get 1 more week probably in the 90s since the Taylor Swift songs will fade, but Post Malone will almost definitely knock it off and kill its chances the week after due to the album bomb (I see Earfquake getting knocked out that week too and missing).

She needs 15 weeks?

Using my calculations, she actually needs at least 17 weeks to be safe (above the current projected cutoff line) for my predictions. However, 15 is the bare minimum to even have a chance to scrape by the bottom of the year end list (if she gets 15 weeks she will be where Walk Me Home is points wise, which is the lowest possible song in my opinion that can still get in).

[spicymapping]

Probably like a 1% chance of this happening, but just throwing it out there: All The Good Girls Go To Hell is getting an MV and likely a single release, and as it has a bit of scrap points from the album, it could theoretically make a surprise entry.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 3, 2019 15:39:36 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Sept 3, 2019 15:39:01 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Likely it will. But within #46-#50.

so 3 top 50s for Brendon?

1. Yes.
2. YES.
3. YES!!!

[spicymapping]

yes

TL,DR:
Locked: None
Added: Press, Rearview Town

(also, abbreviating below 100. Once we get to 90 locked i'll push it to 110 for songs on the bubble and i'll show 'em all again for the very end.)

1. Sunflower (+1)
2. Without Me (-1)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. Happier (=)
5. 7 Rings (=)
6. Wow. (=)
7. SICKO MODE (=)
8. thank u, next (=)
9. High Hopes (=)
10. bad guy (=)
11. Sucker (=)
12. Talk (=)
13. Eastside (=)
14. Shallow (=)
15. Dancing With a Stranger (=) 
16. Going Bad (=)
17. Better (=)
18. Girls Like You (=)
19. Sweet But Psycho (=)
20. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
21. I Don't Care (+1)
22. Drip Too Hard (-1)
23. Truth Hurts (+4)
24. Suge (+2)
25. Please Me (-2)
26. ZEZE (-2)
27. Better Now (-2)
28. Señorita (+4)
29. Youngblood (-1)
30. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
31. If I Can’t Have You (=)
32. Money (-2)
33. a lot (=)
34. MIA (=)
35. Look Back At It (=)
36.  Speechless (+3)
37. Thotiana (-1)
38. Beautiful Crazy (-1)
39. Lucid Dreams (-1)
40. ME! (+6)
41. Mo Bamba (-1)
42. God's Country (+1)
43. Whiskey Glasses (+2)
44. Wake Up In The Sky (-3)
45. Pop Out (+2)
46. Be Alright (-4)
47. No Guidance (+5)
48. Pure Water (-4)
49. Close To Me (-1)
50. Taki Taki (-1)
51. You Say (-1)
52. Envy Me (-1)
53. Con Calma (=)
54. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+1)
55. when the party’s over (-1)
56. Murder on My Mind (=)
57. Act Up (=)
58. You Need To Calm Down (+8)
59. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+2)
60. Money In The Grave (+4)
61. I Like It (-3)
62. Leave Me Alone (-3)
63. Breathin (-3)
64. Ran$om (+5)
65. Close Friends (-3)
66. bury a friend (-3)
67. Baby Shark (-2)
68. The London (=)
69. Goodbyes (+5)
70. Worth It (-3)
71. Someone You Loved (+4)
72. The Git Up (+5)
73. Trip (-3)
74. Swervin (-3)
75. Rumor (-3)
76. Tequila (-3)
77. Look What God Gave Her (-1)
78. Clout (=)
79. Good as You (=)
80. Love Lies (=)
81. Talk You Out Of It (=)

Predicted Cutoff - 1500

82. Shotta Flow (+5) - WA: 1
83. Eyes on You (-1)
84. Knockin' Boots (+7) - WA: 1
85. Robbery (-1)
86. Beautiful (-2)
87. Never Really Over (+1) - WA: 2, WL: 7
88. GIRL (-3)
89. Walk Me Home (-3)
90. Here Tonight (-1)
91. All I Want For Christmas is You (-1)
92. This Is It (=)
93. EARFQUAKE (+3) - WA: 4, WL: 5
94. Miss Me More (-1)
95. Girls Need Love (-1)
96. Put a Date On It (=)
97. Natural (=)
98. All To Myself (+7) - WA: 3
99. Here With Me (-1)
100. Mixed Personalities (-1)

102. Go Loko (+4) - WA: 5, WL: 3
103. Beautiful People (+13) - WA: 2
108. Panini (+6) - WA: 4
122. Press (NEW) - WA: 9, WL: 7
124. Rearview Town (NEW) - WA: 7, WL: 8

every song holds position blahblahblah

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. 7 Rings
6. Wow.
7. Truth Hurts
8. Happier
9. Talk
10. Sucker
11. Sicko Mode
12. thank u, next
13. High Hopes
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. You Need To Calm Down
21. Suge
22. No Guidance
23. Better
24. If I Can't Have You
25. Girls Like You
26. Sweet But Psycho
27. ME!
28. MIDDLE CHILD
29. Ran$om
30. Drip Too Hard
31. Speechless
32. Pop Out
33. Money In The Grave
34. Goodbyes
35. God's Country
36. Someone You Loved
37. Whiskey Glasses
38. Please Me
39. ZEZE
40. Better Now
41. Beer Never Broke My Heart
42. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
43. Youngblood
44. BUWYG, IB
45. The Git Up
46. Money
47. The London
48. A Lot
49. MIA
50. Look Back At It
51. Thotiana
52. Beautiful Crazy
53. Lucid Dreams
54. Mo Bamba
55. Beautiful People
56. Wake Up In The Sky
57. Be Alright
58. Pure Water
59. Close To Me
60. Knockin' Boot
61. Taki Taki
62. You Say
63. Envy Me
64. Lover
65. Con Calma
66. My Type
67. Shotta Flow
68. When the Party's Over
69. Murder on My Mind
70. Act Up
71. Panini
72. All To Myself
73. Boyfriend
74. I Like It
75. Leave Me Alone
76. Breathin
77. Baby
78. Close Friends
79. Bury a Friend
80. Baby Shark
81. Trampoline
82. Worth It
83. Never Really Over
84. Cash s**t
85. Trip
86. Swervin
87. Rumor
88. Tequila
89. How Do You Sleep?
90. EARFQUAKE
91. Hot Girl Summer
92. Look What God Gave Her
93. Clout
94. Good as You
95. Love Lies
96. Talk You Out of It
97. The Man
98. Only Human
99. Rearview Town
100. Eyes on You

101. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home
102. Robbery
103. Press
104. Beautiful
105. Go Loko
106. One Thing Right
107. Otro Trago
108. Easier
109. GIRL
110. Walk Me Home

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Locked This Week:

-Someone You Loved

-The London

-Ran$om

Songs That Will Be Locked Next Week:

-The Git Up

-Goodbyes

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future:

-Beautiful People

-Panini

-My Type

-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 78.  Here are the other songs that can still make it:

78) Rumor 2012

- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -

79) Clout 1991
80) Good As You 1968
81) Look What God Gave Her 1965
82) Trip 1952

83) Tequila 1866

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

84) Love Lies 1803
85) Eyes On You 1795
86) This Is It 1774
87) Knockin' Boots 1769 (+129)
88) Talk You Out Of It 1768
89) Shotta Flow 1767 (+115)

90) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

91) Never Really Over 1621 (+66)
92) Go Loko 1587 (+74)
93) All To Myself 1556 (+115)
94) Earfquake 1549 (+64)
95) Press 1285 (+73)
96) Easier 1272 (+97)
97) Rearview Town 1265 (+107)
98) Trampoline 1068 (+123)
99) Callaita 1052 (+93)
100) Call You Mine 1021 (+80)
101) Otro Trago 984 (+102)
102) Cash s**t 974 (+122)
103) One Thing Right 888 (+103)

104) Only Human 842 (+120)

105) Baby 759 (+144)

106) How Do You Sleep? 751 (+127)
107) China 658 (+105)
108) Hot Girl Summer 493 (+134)
109) Lover 371 (+214)

110) Motivation 224 (+95)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

82) Eyes On You 1795
83) Trip 1788

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

84) This Is It 1774

85) Knockin' Boots 1769 (+129)

86) Talk You Out Of It 1768

87) Shotta Flow 1767 (+115)

88) Tequila 1742
89) Walk Me Home 1733

Love Lies is at 1653 points and it will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

[GPMB]

Hey Look Ma I Made It just took a sharp hit this week, looks like it won’t be able to make top 50 YE

[hydraflare]

Sept 3, 2019 22:43:34 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Hey Look Ma I Made It just took a sharp hit this week, looks like it won’t be able to make top 50 YE

g o o d

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2019 22:46:24 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Sept 3, 2019 22:43:34 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Hey Look Ma I Made It just took a sharp hit this week, looks like it won’t be able to make top 50 YE

n o t   g o o d

[GPMB]

Sept 3, 2019 22:46:24 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Sept 3, 2019 22:43:34 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Hey Look Ma I Made It just took a sharp hit this week, looks like it won’t be able to make top 50 YE

g o o d

well yeah of course the song sucks shit but its always interesting to me when a non-top 15 hit makes the top 50

[inverse]

^ There will be a lot of those this year. Speechless, Beautiful Crazy, Look Back At It (#27 peak), and maybe MIA, Whiskey Glasses and Pure Water

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2019 23:28:12 GMT -5 inverse said:

^ There will be a lot of those this year. Speechless, Beautiful Crazy, Look Back At It (#27 peak), and maybe MIA, Whiskey Glasses and Pure Water

God's Country could potentially pull it off too considering it's been just behind Whiskey Glasses the past few weeks in terms of points.

[lights]

Don't mind me just someone else coming in late with predictions. I have been doing them all year but not discovered this place until now.

[inverse]

WEEK 41 UPDATE. NRO Whyyyyyy why do you have to fall so fast?

If that's ok I think I'm not gonna post one of these every single week because the formatting is a total pain to set up. Thank U Next has now been pushed to the brink of removal from the top 10.

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1394450
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1049650
3	Halsey	Without Me	1027150
4	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
5	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	782620
6	Post Malone	Wow	772380
7	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
8	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
9	Billie Eilish	Bad guy	667750
10	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
11	Khalid	Talk	620100
12	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	616400
13	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
14	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
15	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	573180
16	Lada Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
17	Khalid	Better	536600
18	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
19	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
20	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
21	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
22	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	435300
23	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	379500
24	DaBaby	Suge	373850
25	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
26	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
27	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
28	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
29	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
30	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
31	Cardi B	Money	331850
32	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
33	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	327200
34	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	325230
35	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	320600
36	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
37	Dan + Shay	Speechless	312100
38	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
39	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
40	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	295600
41	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
42	Blake Shelton	God's Country	290200
43	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	285100
44	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
45	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
46	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	277470
47	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
48	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
49	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
50	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
51	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
52	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
53	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
54	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	252100
55	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
56	City Girls	Act Up	246500
57	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
58	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
59	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
60	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	220600
61	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	220450
62	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	217100
63	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
64	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
65	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
66	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
67	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	207650
68	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	201800
69	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
70	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
71	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	193450
72	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
73	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
74	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
75	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
76	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
77	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	185350
78	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	184800
79	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
80	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
81	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	172000
82	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
83	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	170450
84	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
85	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
86	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070
87	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
88	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
89	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
90	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
91	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
92	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
93	Marshmello f/ CHVRCHES	Here With Me	151970
94	Tyler The Creator	Earthquake	151800
95	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	151700
96	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	150150
97	Jonas Brothers	Cool	149950
98	Khalid & Normani	Love Lies	149850
99	YNW Melly f/ Kanye West	Mixed Personalities	145230
100	Jason Aldean	Girl Like You	141450

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 4, 2019 11:29:00 GMT -5 inverse said:

65	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
91	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520

Only in 2019

[Deleted]

I'm hoping that Never Really Over gets enough of a rebound after the Taylor songs are gone and can outlast the Post Malone bomb to stay on long enough.

[GPMB]

Sept 3, 2019 23:28:12 GMT -5 inverse said:

^ There will be a lot of those this year. Speechless, Beautiful Crazy, Look Back At It (#27 peak), and maybe MIA, Whiskey Glasses and Pure Water

Look Back At It’s run is the most fascinating thing to me yeah

also I don’t think Envy Me will be able to make the top 50 but it will probably be the highest song on a YE ever to not make the top 30 on the h100, assuming I’m not forgetting anything

[inverse]

^ It would have to be #47 the record is 48 held by "Days Of Wine And Roses" by Henry Mancini which peaked at #33 in 1963 and had one of the longest chart runs of that year

[GPMB]

Sept 4, 2019 20:28:16 GMT -5 inverse said:

^ It would have to be #47 the record is 48 held by "Days Of Wine And Roses" by Henry Mancini which peaked at #33 in 1963 and had one of the longest chart runs of that year

oh that's insane lol its even moreso when you consider how before I think the Nielsen thing in 1991 it was rare to find a song that even peaked below #20 on a year end

edit: i was going to say "aren't there two different 1963 year ends" but then i looked at the other one and DOWAR was even higher on it, at #37. Envy Me is DEFINITELY not going to beat that lol

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Bold prediction: All I Want For Christmas Is You is making the Year-End next year

[twelvevinylrecords]

Guys, I really like Trampoline. Like, a lot. I want this song to be big, and it keeps rising and should hit the top 40 next week, let's get it.

[jerry]

Sept 3, 2019 19:58:32 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sept 3, 2019 19:49:41 GMT -5 @delphox said:

It will get 1 more week probably in the 90s since the Taylor Swift songs will fade, but Post Malone will almost definitely knock it off and kill its chances the week after due to the album bomb (I see Earfquake getting knocked out that week too and missing).

She needs 15 weeks?

Will Katy Perry be credited for Con Calma even though it charted several weeks before the Remix came out?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 5, 2019 1:59:13 GMT -5 jerry said:

Sept 3, 2019 19:58:32 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

She needs 15 weeks?

Will Katy Perry be credited for Con Calma even though it charted several weeks before the Remix came out?

Of course. 

[spicymapping]

I think we’re overreacting with NRO here tbh. It’s gonna rise next week, and even though it’ll be gone with Post, the chances that it’ll re-enter in the 90s for a week are very likely

[rockgolf]

Sept 4, 2019 23:05:16 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Guys, I really like Trampoline. Like, a lot. I want this song to be big, and it keeps rising and should hit the top 40 next week, let's get it.

So... you're hoping it will bounce up???