Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[GPMB]

Oct 19, 2019 2:54:35 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Oct 18, 2019 15:38:44 GMT -5 GPMB said:

ok i don't want to say anything definitive right now or put too much pressure on him, but it seems like a lot of the currently charting songs (e.g. My Type, Cash s**t, Only Human, Baby, Circles) are way too low on rimetm's predictions compared to where they should be

They were higher, then I realized that it’s not just the top 10 that’s weak right now in terms of points, it’s pretty much the whole top 80 or so. The curve the predictions usually follow assumes an average level of performance, but that dropped off in the waning weeks of OTR’s reign.

ok that actually kind of makes sense considering HITR debuted at #1 despite only barely edging out on streaming and not doing as well as 10000 Hours on sales and having zero radio

[GPMB]

updated prediction of what the final year end will look like, this time with points

1. Old Town Road (1699320)
2. Sunflower (1320650)
3. Without Me (1145050)
4. bad guy (965770)
5. Wow. (936680)
6. Talk (876300)
7. Happier (866460)
8. 7 rings (848270)
9. Sucker (834720)
10. Truth Hurts (813410)
11. SICKO MODE (794310)
12. High Hopes (779140)
13. Dancing with a Stranger (733180)
14. Señorita (731120)
15. thank u, next (698820)
16. I Don’t Care (686360)
17. Eastside (620490)
18. Going Bad (610540)
19. Shallow (597800)
20. No Guidance (595960)
21. Better (568740)
22. Someone You Loved (558350)
23. Suge (544390)
24. Sweet but Psycho (542980)
25. Girls like You (517300)
26. Ransom (509760)
27. MIDDLE CHILD (508720)
28. Drip Too Hard (473500)
29. Goodbyes (426530)
30. If I Can’t Have You (421650)
31. Money in the Grave (399120)
32. Panini (390920)
33. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (376720)
34. Please Me (373910)
35. Speechless (370530)
36. Beautiful People (367520)
37. You Need to Calm Down (367220)
38. Better Now (366820)
39. ZEZE (366070)
40. Look Back at It (365510)
41. Youngblood (364480)
42. Money (357560)
43. a lot (352790)
44. ME! (347250)
45. Beautiful Crazy (340990)
46. Circles (337450)
47. Pop Out (330800)
48. Thotiana (327980)
49. MIA (323770)
50. Whiskey Glasses (315440)
51. Be Alright (313260)
52. God’s Country (307620)
53. Pure Water (306000)
54. Envy Me (305190)
55. Close to Me (298440)
56. You Say (293800)
57. The Git Up (291220)
58. Lucid Dreams (290920)
59. Wake Up in the Sky (285010)
60. Mo Bamba (280420)
61. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (279140)
62. Con calma (276050)
63. Taki Taki (270450)
64. Beer Never Broke My Heart (265650)
65. Trampoline (264070)
66. Murder on My Mind (263880)
67. when the party’s over (263330)
68. The London (260670)
69. Act Up (255740)
70. bury a friend (240670)
71. I Like It (238540)
72. Only Human (235970)
73. Baby Shark (233990)
74. Worth It (228740)
75. Close Friends (226840)
76. Leave Me Alone (226390)
77. My Type (222750)
78. Knockin’ Boots (218170)
79. Swervin (217700)
80. Baby (215560)
81. breathin (212980)
82. How Do You Sleep? (207700)
83. One Thing Right (203240)
84. Clout (199930)
85. Rumor (199690)
86. Look What God Gave Her (195810)
87. Good as You (193580)
88. Cash Shit (188090)
89. Hot Girl Summer (187790)
90. Good as Hell (186820)
91. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (185290)
92. Shotta Flow (184750)
93. Eyes on You (178400)
94. All to Myself (177750)
95. Trip (177180)
96. Lover (173950)
97. On Chill (173890)
98. Tequila (173490)
99. Talk You Out of It (173350)
100. Ballin’ (171470)

(sorry for double posting)

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2019 23:00:41 GMT -5 GPMB said:

updated prediction of what the final year end will look like, this time with points

88. Cash s**t (188090)
89. Hot Girl Summer (187790)
90. Good as Hell (186820)
91. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (185290)
92. Shotta Flow (184750)
93. Eyes on You (178400)
94. All to Myself (177750)
95. Trip (177180)
96. Lover (173950)
97. On Chill (173890)
98. Tequila (173490)
99. Talk You Out of It (173350)
100. Ballin’ (171470)

(sorry for double posting)

I personally don't think all 5 songs (Good As Hell, Highest In The Room, Lover, On Chill & Ballin') will make late entries into the 2019 year end list. Good As Hell literally needs to rise into the top 10 very soon to make it (apparently she's releasing a remix with Ariana Grande but it isn't confirmed). Highest In The Room needs to stay in the top 5 for the rest of the year. which I don't think will happen. As for Lover, On Chill & Ballin', they need to rise to 25, 20 & 15 respectively to have a chance. All said and done, this is what I think the bottom of the 2019 year end list will look like.

88) Shotta Flow

89) Hot Girl Summer

90) Cash Shit

91) All To Myself

92) Eyes On You

93) Talk You Out Of It

94) Trip

95) Lover

96) On Chill

97) This Is It

98) Walk Me Home

99) Tequila

100) Go Loko/Robbery/GIRL (Or it could be some unexpected big debut from Adele or something).

[lukulele]

Oct 17, 2019 5:37:47 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Oct 16, 2019 22:37:38 GMT -5 lukulele said:

Favs:
1. Pop Out
2. Project Dreams - Marshmello ft. Roddy Ricch
3. Look Back at it
4. SICKO MODE
5. Old town Road
6. Sanguine Paradise - Lil Uzi Vert
7. MIDDLE CHILD
8. One Thing Right
9. I - Lil Skies
10. Virtual (Blue Balenciagas) - YNW Melly
11. Girls Have Fun - Tyga ft. Rich the Kid and G-Eazy
12. Lucid Dreams
13. Shotta Flow (Blueface Remix)
14. Horses - Pnb Rock ft. Kodak Black and A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie
15 Ransom (Juice WRLD Remix)

Least favs:
1. Dancing With A Stranger
2. You Say
3. Baby Shark
4. ME!
5. Please Me
6. thank u, next
7. Circles
8. Thotiana
9. I like it
10. I don't care

Half of you best list isnt even close on making a chance on making the YE list, sorry

I am aware and really don't care tbh. I just made a list of my favorite songs of the year altogether. The ones I knew weren't making it I put the artist(s) name in blue.

[GPMB]

Oct 19, 2019 23:20:31 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 19, 2019 23:00:41 GMT -5 GPMB said:

updated prediction of what the final year end will look like, this time with points

88. Cash s**t (188090)
89. Hot Girl Summer (187790)
90. Good as Hell (186820)
91. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (185290)
92. Shotta Flow (184750)
93. Eyes on You (178400)
94. All to Myself (177750)
95. Trip (177180)
96. Lover (173950)
97. On Chill (173890)
98. Tequila (173490)
99. Talk You Out of It (173350)
100. Ballin’ (171470)

(sorry for double posting)

I personally don't think all 5 songs (Good As Hell, Highest In The Room, Lover, On Chill & Ballin') will make late entries into the 2019 year end list. Good As Hell literally needs to rise into the top 10 very soon to make it (apparently she's releasing a remix with Ariana Grande but it isn't confirmed). Highest In The Room needs to stay in the top 5 for the rest of the year. which I don't think will happen. As for Lover, On Chill & Ballin', they need to rise to 25, 20 & 15 respectively to have a chance. All said and done, this is what I think the bottom of the 2019 year end list will look like.

88) Shotta Flow

89) Hot Girl Summer

90) Cash s**t

91) All To Myself

92) Eyes On You

93) Talk You Out Of It

94) Trip

95) Lover

96) On Chill

97) This Is It

98) Walk Me Home

99) Tequila

100) Go Loko/Robbery/GIRL (Or it could be some unexpected big debut from Adele or something).

you could be right, i just based those on the chart runs i think they'll take in the next six weeks and the points rimetm gave to certain chart positions this week

wait maybe it's because i'm counting the week of november 30 and you're not, that might be it

[Deleted]

Oct 19, 2019 23:51:22 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Oct 19, 2019 23:20:31 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I personally don't think all 5 songs (Good As Hell, Highest In The Room, Lover, On Chill & Ballin') will make late entries into the 2019 year end list. Good As Hell literally needs to rise into the top 10 very soon to make it (apparently she's releasing a remix with Ariana Grande but it isn't confirmed). Highest In The Room needs to stay in the top 5 for the rest of the year. which I don't think will happen. As for Lover, On Chill & Ballin', they need to rise to 25, 20 & 15 respectively to have a chance. All said and done, this is what I think the bottom of the 2019 year end list will look like.

88) Shotta Flow

89) Hot Girl Summer

90) Cash s**t

91) All To Myself

92) Eyes On You

93) Talk You Out Of It

94) Trip

95) Lover

96) On Chill

97) This Is It

98) Walk Me Home

99) Tequila

100) Go Loko/Robbery/GIRL (Or it could be some unexpected big debut from Adele or something).

you could be right, i just based those on the chart runs i think they'll take in the next six weeks and the points rimetm gave to certain chart positions this week

wait maybe it's because i'm counting the week of november 30 and you're not, that might be it

Yeah I personally don't think November 30th, 2019 will be counted since November 24th, 2018 wasn't counted for last year's list.

[Normi]

2019 is pretty interesting especially looking at some songs, Sunflower's longevity is unbelievable
I'm so glad to see a year with 4-5 Ariana songs and 5 Post songs on the YE list, amazing!

[Lukas]

Oct 20, 2019 2:14:05 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 19, 2019 23:51:22 GMT -5 GPMB said:

you could be right, i just based those on the chart runs i think they'll take in the next six weeks and the points rimetm gave to certain chart positions this week

wait maybe it's because i'm counting the week of november 30 and you're not, that might be it

Yeah I personally don't think November 30th, 2019 will be counted since November 24th, 2018 wasn't counted for last year's list.

November 30th won't be counted.

The reason why November 24 wasn't counted last year was because of the change in where Billboard decided to move from being two weeks ahead to just one week (hence why the January 3 chart week exists).

That's also why I don't get why people think November 24 2018 won't be counted, but whatever.

[rimetm]

See, but if November 24, 2018 does get counted by your logic, then they’d lop 2 weeks off this year’s chart to maintain 52: November 30, 2019 and November 23, 2019. That just creates a vicious cycle where every 53-week year ends up pushing the chart date range further and further back.

[Deleted]

Dancing with a stranger seems so abnormally high

[inverse]

Oct 20, 2019 17:03:12 GMT -5 rimetm said:

See, but if November 24, 2018 does get counted by your logic, then they’d lop 2 weeks off this year’s chart to maintain 52: November 30, 2019 and November 23, 2019. That just creates a vicious cycle where every 53-week year ends up pushing the chart date range further and further back.

The only logic in which starting this year at Nov 24 makes any sense is if they say that originally the Nov 17 week was Nov 24 because they switched Jan 6 2018 to Jan 3 2018 and then Jan 13 2018 to Jan 6 2018 and went from there as usual. However if this does happen that means that forever the first week of the year will be the chart dated to the last week in November and Nov 24 will be the starting week for all 53 week years (or Nov 25 in a leap year)

[spicymapping]

Oct 20, 2019 17:44:03 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Dancing with a stranger seems so abnormally high

That's what being the only real sleeper hit of the year will do for you.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 20, 2019 17:44:03 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Dancing with a stranger seems so abnormally high

Dancing With A Stranger peaking #7 and possibly ending at #13 is nothing new because there has been two instances already of it during this decade (Rihanna with Needed Me in 2016 and Lil Uzi Vert's XO Tour Lilif3 at 2017)

[spicymapping]

I've been looking at the songs that have been caught between years by my formula and I think it's around time that we all acknowledge just how tragic the chart arc of Beautiful was. Insert its full arc into the 2019 year end and it finishes at #55 - between Mo Bamba and Wake Up In The Sky (which sure, is unfair considering both songs also lost points to 2018 but outside of those two its nearest neighbors are The Git Up and Pure Water which is still impressive as hell.) I don't think there's ever been a song with this many total points get caught between years before. Also, for the other songs caught between years (or in the margin of error), here's how they fit with their full chart runs.

Broken - #72
She Got The Best of Me - #75
Uproar - #75
I'm a Mess - #82
Ring - #83
I Love It - #90
Best Shot - #98
Lose It - #99
Drunk Me - #100
Backin It Up - #100
Dangerous - #103
Lie - #103
Lucky You - #103
This Feeling - #107

Seeing Drunk Me and Dangerous on here is weird since they were never even in anyone's conversations for year ends, but as it turns out they were closer than it looked.

[avatar]

Oct 20, 2019 21:03:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I've been looking at the songs that have been caught between years by my formula and I think it's around time that we all acknowledge just how tragic the chart arc of Beautiful was. Insert its full arc into the 2019 year end and it finishes at #55 - between Mo Bamba and Wake Up In The Sky (which sure, is unfair considering both songs also lost points to 2018 but outside of those two its nearest neighbors are The Git Up and Pure Water which is still impressive as hell.) I don't think there's ever been a song with this many total points get caught between years before. Also, for the other songs caught between years (or in the margin of error), here's how they fit with their full chart runs.

Broken - #72
She Got The Best of Me - #75
Uproar - #75
I'm a Mess - #82
Ring - #83
I Love It - #90
Best Shot - #98
Lose It - #99
Drunk Me - #100
Backin It Up - #100
Dangerous - #103
Lie - #103
Lucky You - #103
This Feeling - #107

Seeing Drunk Me and Dangerous on here is weird since they were never even in anyone's conversations for year ends, but as it turns out they were closer than it looked.

I’m A Mess Deserved To Make The Year End List.

[inverse]

Oct 20, 2019 21:03:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I don't think there's ever been a song with this many total points get caught between years before. 

There totally has. I think the biggest example might be from 2004 with a song called Let's Go by Trick Daddy featuring Lil Jon and Twista. According to my formula (which is actually pretty accurate for that year) if it had its entire run in 2004 it would've finished between Pieces Of Me (39) and Leave (Get Out) (40) and keep in mind that this is way bigger than the cutoff for those places now, if Leave (Get Out) were to have an identical chart run this year it would almost surely wind up in that long dead zone between Please Me/BUWYGIB and Drip Too Hard.


The chart run: 72-57-37-29-24-19-14-10-10-8-7-7-8-9-11-15-17-20-25-35-43-41. The split was between the two weeks at 7. 

[Deleted]

Oct 20, 2019 21:03:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I've been looking at the songs that have been caught between years by my formula and I think it's around time that we all acknowledge just how tragic the chart arc of Beautiful was. Insert its full arc into the 2019 year end and it finishes at #55 - between Mo Bamba and Wake Up In The Sky (which sure, is unfair considering both songs also lost points to 2018 but outside of those two its nearest neighbors are The Git Up and Pure Water which is still impressive as hell.) I don't think there's ever been a song with this many total points get caught between years before. Also, for the other songs caught between years (or in the margin of error), here's how they fit with their full chart runs.

Broken - #72
She Got The Best of Me - #75
Uproar - #75
I'm a Mess - #82
Ring - #83
I Love It - #90
Best Shot - #98
Lose It - #99
Drunk Me - #100
Backin It Up - #100
Dangerous - #103
Lie - #103
Lucky You - #103
This Feeling - #107

Seeing Drunk Me and Dangerous on here is weird since they were never even in anyone's conversations for year ends, but as it turns out they were closer than it looked.

I’m still pissed that pop radio decided to completely kill it the week before it could get enough points to make year end

[iHype.]

Drake is gonna have 3 features top 20 (SICKO MODE, Going Bad, No Guidance) on Year-End. Possibly 6 entries total, during a break year.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 20, 2019 21:03:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I've been looking at the songs that have been caught between years by my formula and I think it's around time that we all acknowledge just how tragic the chart arc of Beautiful was. Insert its full arc into the 2019 year end and it finishes at #55 - between Mo Bamba and Wake Up In The Sky (which sure, is unfair considering both songs also lost points to 2018 but outside of those two its nearest neighbors are The Git Up and Pure Water which is still impressive as hell.) I don't think there's ever been a song with this many total points get caught between years before. Also, for the other songs caught between years (or in the margin of error), here's how they fit with their full chart runs.

Broken - #72
She Got The Best of Me - #75
Uproar - #75
I'm a Mess - #82
Ring - #83
I Love It - #90
Best Shot - #98
Lose It - #99
Drunk Me - #100
Backin It Up - #100
Dangerous - #103
Lie - #103
Lucky You - #103
This Feeling - #107

Seeing Drunk Me and Dangerous on here is weird since they were never even in anyone's conversations for year ends, but as it turns out they were closer than it looked.

Darn, "Beautiful" could've been that high in the year-end list if all of it's points were in 2019 chart year. Now, I'm still in the "Beautiful in the 2019 YE" prayer circle because it needs to happen. Please!

[samo🦕]

I never realised Lucky You could've been that close.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 21, 2019 4:34:58 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

I never realised Lucky You could've been that close.

Or "Lie" and "This Feeling".

[Deleted]

Since Spicymapping mentioned it, I calculated Drunk Me's points using my formula and I got 1919 points, enough to make 2018 or 2019's YE lists.

[Lukas]

Damn, I really miss those weeks where songs in the #2-#4 range would consistently be getting more than 40,000 points. Now, most of the times, even the #1 song can't do so.

I don't think it's because the Hot 100 is giving less points in total: Old Town Road got more than 100,000 points in a single week. And in May/June 2017, songs such as Mask Off and Something Just Like This peaked with over 35,000 points despite having pretty low peaks. And, the 2010 year in general produced weak weeks like this, so.....

[eidde]

I think it's safe to say at this point that Good As Hell will make the 2020 YE.

[Deleted]

Since I will be busy for the next 2 weeks, I might not have the time to update the YE charts. In case I don't, here's just a rough prediction.

Songs That Secured Their YE Positions This Week (Safe):

1) Circles
2) Trampoline
3) My Type

Songs That Will Make The YE Late (Certain):

1) Only Human
2) Baby
3) How Do You Sleep?

Songs That Will Probably Make The YE Late (Likely):
1) One Thing Right
2) Cash Shit
3) Hot Girl Summer

Songs That Might Make The YE Late (Tossup):
1) Lover
2) On Chill
3) Ballin'

4) Good As Hell

5) HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

As for Boyfriend, unless its streaming can help it stay in the bottom of the charts for the rest of the charting year, its chances are done.

Using rimetm's predictions list, GIRL is the projected cutoff if only the songs in the certain and likely category make the list proper.

If all the songs listed above make it, including those in the toss up category and Boyfriend, Tequila will be the projected cutoff.

[Lukas]

I love how we went from Boyfriend "absolutely making it" about 4-6 weeks ago to it "not making it at all."

[inverse]

Also sorry if this is a dumb question but for the people who post predictions by inserting images in here how do you create those tables like what software is it?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If Good as Hell skyrockets into the Top 10, it could actually sneak into the year-end list.

[lights]

[GPMB]

Oct 21, 2019 22:08:11 GMT -5 Lukas said:

I love how we went from Boyfriend "absolutely making it" about 4-6 weeks ago to it "not making it at all."

radio free fall will do that to you