Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

Oct 22, 2019 23:30:37 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Using rimetm /fhas ' formula, the predictions if the songs currently charting stayed on their points for the next 4 weeks:

94. Ariana Grande, Social House – “Boyfriend” [178,910]
95. Chase Rice – “Eyes on You” [178,400]
96. Dan + Shay – “All to Myself” [177,750]
97. Bad Bunny – “Callaita” [176,460]
98. Sech featuring Darell – “Otro Trago” [175,770]
99. Florida Georgia Line – “Talk You Out of It” [173,350]
100. Scotty McCreery – “This Is It” [170,870]
101. P!nk – “Walk Me Home” [170,610]
102. Bazzi featuring Camila Cabello – “Beautiful” [168,810]
103. YG, Tyga, Jon Z – “Go Loko” [168,310]
104. Juice WRLD – “Robbery” [167,880]
105. Wale featuring Jeremih – “On Chill” [167,480]
106. Maren Morris – “Girl” [166,000]

Callaita and Otro Trago only have 1 week left of charting, so they won't get that many points. Therefore, Beautiful is the projected #100.

[Deleted]

^^^ I hope so cause Calaita and Otro Trago suck

And I still love Beautiful
Walk Me Home is alright but better than the the two tracks that could potentially kick it off

[lights]

Oct 23, 2019 10:44:02 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 23, 2019 10:29:17 GMT -5 lights said:

Also I noticed that for 2013 the data used was December 1 2012 to November 30 2019.

These dates match up exactly with this year yes? So is there a possibility that 24/11/18 isn't counted but 30/11/19 is? 53 wks.

Was 2013 a 52 week charting year or a 53 week charting year? If it was 52 then chances are it 30/11/19 will most likely be ignored.

Doesn't being December 1 to November 30 make it 53?

[Lukas]

@delphox 2013 was a 53 week tracking year.

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2019 11:23:48 GMT -5 Lukas said:

@delphox 2013 was a 53 week tracking year.

Ah thanks, then there is 5 possible scenarios. I still think the 4th one is the most likely if we are following what they did last year though.

1) 11/24/2018 to 11/16/2019 (52 weeks)

2) 11/24/2018 to 11/23/2019 (53 weeks)

3) 11/24/2018 to 11/30/2019 (54 weeks)

4) 12/01/2018 to 11/23/2019 (52 weeks)

5) 12/01/2019 to 11/30/2019 (53 weeks)

[Deleted]

Since ItsYaBoiGV already calculated most of the 2019 year end charts if things stay the same (under fhas/rimetm's list), I was able to quickly calculate the bottom of the charts if 11/24/2018 was not counted towards the list (big thanks to him for doing the full list since I was busy).

87. Kane Brown – “Good as You” [193,580]
88. Megan Thee Stallion featuring DaBaby – “Cash S—t” [187,060]
89. NLE Choppa – “Shotta Flow” [184,750]
90. Megan Thee Stallion featuring Nicki Minaj, Ty Dolla $ign – “Hot Girl Summer” [182,310]
91. Ariana Grande, Social House – “Boyfriend” [178,910]
92. Chase Rice – “Eyes on You” [178,400]
93. Dan + Shay – “All to Myself” [177,750]
94. Ella Mai – “Trip” [177,180]
95. Dan + Shay – “Tequila” [173,490]
96. Florida Georgia Line – “Talk You Out of It” [173,350]
97. Scotty McCreery – “This Is It” [170,870]
98. P!nk – “Walk Me Home” [170,610]
99. YG, Tyga, Jon Z – “Go Loko” [168,310]
100. Juice WRLD – “Robbery” [167,880]

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

101. Wale featuring Jeremih – “On Chill” [167,480]
102. Maren Morris – “Girl” [166,000]
103. Khalid, Normani – “Love Lies” [163,620]
104. Brett Young – “Here Tonight” [162,220]
105. Jason Aldean – “Girl Like You” [161,290]
106. Katy Perry – “Never Really Over” [158,780]
107. Kelsea Ballerini – “Miss Me More” [158,270]
108. Bad Bunny – “Callaita” [158,100]
109. Sech featuring Darell – “Otro Trago” [156,930]
110. Marshmello featuring CHRVCHES – “Here With Me” [156,880]
111. Taylor Swift – “Lover” [156,700]
112. Chris Lane – “I Don’t Know About You” [156,070]
113. Bazzi featuring Camila Cabello – “Beautiful” [155,570]

[tallen2001]

^ I swear if Robbery makes it in just over On Chill. The margin of error seems real close between those two.

[GPMB]

Oct 23, 2019 11:28:00 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 23, 2019 11:23:48 GMT -5 Lukas said:

@delphox 2013 was a 53 week tracking year.

Ah thanks, then there is 5 possible scenarios. I still think the 4th one is the most likely if we are following what they did last year though.

1) 11/24/2018 to 11/16/2019 (52 weeks)

2) 11/24/2018 to 11/23/2019 (53 weeks)

3) 11/24/2018 to 11/30/2019 (54 weeks)

4) 12/01/2018 to 11/23/2019 (52 weeks)

5) 12/01/2019 to 11/30/2019 (53 weeks)

ok but the only reason they did what they did last year was bc of the extra week of 1/3/2018

[lights]

The more I think about it, the more I think they'll count 30/11/19 for this year. I can't see them counting it for next year since they always start it in December (same reason I don't think they'll count 24/11/18 for 2019). They could leave a week out for the second year running but I don't see what that solves. Surely last year was the exception and they're not going to keep missing out the last week in November.


I think I'm missing something about what years are 52/53 week years since I've not been on here long, feel free to educate me if I'm missing a point there.

[spicymapping]

Here's how the 5 scenarios affect my predictions with all songs hold for the record
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Cy2s5C2P9bhycBow5OhHpWVm1kSQ9nqC-0_LfuChJA/edit#gid=0

[Lukas]

Oct 23, 2019 13:29:07 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Oct 23, 2019 11:28:00 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Ah thanks, then there is 5 possible scenarios. I still think the 4th one is the most likely if we are following what they did last year though.

1) 11/24/2018 to 11/16/2019 (52 weeks)

2) 11/24/2018 to 11/23/2019 (53 weeks)

3) 11/24/2018 to 11/30/2019 (54 weeks)

4) 12/01/2018 to 11/23/2019 (52 weeks)

5) 12/01/2019 to 11/30/2019 (53 weeks)

ok but the only reason they did what they did last year was bc of the extra week of 1/3/2018

Thank you. This is exactly what I've been trying to tell this thread all along, and it's the reason why I think 11/24/2018 will be counted.

[Deleted]

I hope November 30th, 2019 is not counted because that would mean that the songs in the 170-175K range would be at risk of being knocked out.

[inverse]

^ Yeah but that's a good thing because Eyes On You is garbage, Talk You Out Of It isn't very good either, and Lover & Good As Hell are great songs that should totally make the 2019 year end list

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2019 16:19:34 GMT -5 inverse said:

^ Yeah but that's a good thing because Eyes On You is garbage, Talk You Out Of It isn't very good either, and Lover & Good As Hell are great songs that should totally make the 2019 year end list

I'm mainly rooting for All To Myself, Tequila and This Is It to make it. I don't care for Eyes On You or Talk You Out Of It at all. Good As Hell is great but it should make 2020's YE regardless. I have not heard Lover yet so I can't judge it.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 23, 2019 10:50:34 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 22, 2019 23:30:37 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Using rimetm /fhas ' formula, the predictions if the songs currently charting stayed on their points for the next 4 weeks:

94. Ariana Grande, Social House – “Boyfriend” [178,910]
95. Chase Rice – “Eyes on You” [178,400]
96. Dan + Shay – “All to Myself” [177,750]
97. Bad Bunny – “Callaita” [176,460]
98. Sech featuring Darell – “Otro Trago” [175,770]
99. Florida Georgia Line – “Talk You Out of It” [173,350]
100. Scotty McCreery – “This Is It” [170,870]
101. P!nk – “Walk Me Home” [170,610]
102. Bazzi featuring Camila Cabello – “Beautiful” [168,810]
103. YG, Tyga, Jon Z – “Go Loko” [168,310]
104. Juice WRLD – “Robbery” [167,880]
105. Wale featuring Jeremih – “On Chill” [167,480]
106. Maren Morris – “Girl” [166,000]

Callaita and Otro Trago only have 1 week left of charting, so they won't get that many points. Therefore, Beautiful is the projected #100.

While I was putting "Callaita" and "Otro Trago", I felt sad because they had to and those two eliminates "Beautiful" out of the equation. But if they spend one more week instead of four, it lands "Beautiful" at #100, which still lights up hope for me (#99 if "Boyfriend" ends at #100 or slips out altogether)

[Deleted]

Rooting for eyes on you to make year end

[Lukas]

Just remember that something not yet released could come out and smash in the next few weeks, which might be enough to make the year end list for this year. Like Hello did in 2015.

In other words, it’s not certain yet that a certain song will be at #100, or something like that.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 23, 2019 18:13:55 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Just remember that something not yet released could come out and smash in the next few weeks, which might be enough to make the year end list for this year. Like Hello did in 2015.

In other words, it’s not certain yet that a certain song will be at #100, or something like that.

Going to the discussion about Adele and with 2015 being mentioned, I have this thought. If "Hello" never skyrocketed to the Top 40 of the Billboard YE of 2015 within its first three weeks, what song could've been the #100? (assuming every other song after #35 moves a spot upwards, e.g. Stitches to #35, Talking Body to #36, Jealous to #37 and so on)

[tallen2001]

^According to the old prediction list from 2015 it would've most likely been Prayer In C or I Want You To Know.

[85la]

Oct 22, 2019 20:40:10 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 22, 2019 17:16:32 GMT -5 lights said:

Yeah but why do you now think it won't be? I've never counted it but it always seemed like a 50/50 case

There are two main reasons, the first being that Billboard has stated that they start the year end list tracking on the first week of December. The second reason being that they got rid of the 53rd week in 2018 (which was 11/24), which makes me think they'll stick to 52 weeks like they did last year.

PS: I think they will also leave out the week of November 30th, 2019 out of both 2019 and 2020 applying the same logic.

EDIT: Apologies if my wording seems confusing. There are probably people on this thread who can explain it way better than I can.

I don't think that logic really holds up. There's no way they would cut out weeks for so many years. Yes Billboard tries to keep it at 52 weeks most of the time, but they allow for 53 weeks every so often due to calendar irregularities, and it seems they would most likely do that as opposed to cutting out weeks entirely, which of course would put many songs at a disadvantage.

You're right that before, they've always started the tracking year with the issue dated the first week of December, but it's different now that the issues are dated a week earlier (yet still refer to the same weekly tracking period), so the new tracking year might actually start with the issue dated the last week of November, which this year is the 30th (which is maybe why Nov. 24 wasn't counted for last year). It's hard to say, if they were to keep it the old way, they would have one less week to compile the year-end issue if they still want to release it in early December when they usually do, in order to cash in on as much year-end visibility and holiday sales as possible. If they change it so that next tracking year begins with the issue dated the last week of November, It would in reality give them the same amount of time to compile and release the year-end issue as they usually do. I think they'll do the latter.

[GPMB]

Oct 23, 2019 18:58:20 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Oct 23, 2019 18:13:55 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Just remember that something not yet released could come out and smash in the next few weeks, which might be enough to make the year end list for this year. Like Hello did in 2015.

In other words, it’s not certain yet that a certain song will be at #100, or something like that.

Going to the discussion about Adele and with 2015 being mentioned, I have this thought. If "Hello" never skyrocketed to the Top 40 of the Billboard YE of 2015 within its first three weeks, what song could've been the #100? (assuming every other song after #35 moves a spot upwards, e.g. Stitches to #35, Talking Body to #36, Jealous to #37 and so on)

Where Ya At had a chance i think, it would have been the perfect YE #100 and seeing as i adore that song I may have something else to be mad at Adele for now

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2019 20:47:50 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 22, 2019 20:40:10 GMT -5 @delphox said:

There are two main reasons, the first being that Billboard has stated that they start the year end list tracking on the first week of December. The second reason being that they got rid of the 53rd week in 2018 (which was 11/24), which makes me think they'll stick to 52 weeks like they did last year.

PS: I think they will also leave out the week of November 30th, 2019 out of both 2019 and 2020 applying the same logic.

EDIT: Apologies if my wording seems confusing. There are probably people on this thread who can explain it way better than I can.

I don't think that logic really holds up. There's no way they would cut out weeks for so many years. Yes Billboard tries to keep it at 52 weeks most of the time, but they allow for 53 weeks every so often due to calendar irregularities, and it seems they would most likely do that as opposed to cutting out weeks entirely, which of course would put many songs at a disadvantage.

You're right that before, they've always started the tracking year with the issue dated the first week of December, but it's different now that the issues are dated a week earlier (yet still refer to the same weekly tracking period), so the new tracking year might actually start with the issue dated the last week of November, which this year is the 30th (which is maybe why Nov. 24 wasn't counted for last year). It's hard to say, if they were to keep it the old way, they would have one less week to compile the year-end issue if they still want to release it in early December when they usually do, in order to cash in on as much year-end visibility and holiday sales as possible. If they change it so that next tracking year begins with the issue dated the last week of November, It would in reality give them the same amount of time to compile and release the year-end issue as they usually do. I think they'll do the latter.

If what you're saying is true, I'm assuming they will count the week of November 24th, 2018 as the first week of the 2019 year end list?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 23, 2019 20:03:07 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

^According to the old prediction list from 2015 it would've most likely been Prayer In C or I Want You To Know.

Rae Sremmurd ft. Nicki Minaj and Young Thug's "Throw Sum Mo" also likely could've been the #100 without "Hello". But for those two, sucks that they missed, both songs are good.

[GPMB]

Oct 23, 2019 22:12:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Oct 23, 2019 20:03:07 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

^According to the old prediction list from 2015 it would've most likely been Prayer In C or I Want You To Know.

Rae Sremmurd ft. Nicki Minaj and Young Thug's "Throw Sum Mo" also likely could've been the #100 without "Hello". But for those two, sucks that they missed, both songs are good.

yeah i agree, Where Ya At and Throw Sum Mo are incredible!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

taking in the possibility Adele's new music won't have the monstrous debut numbers Hello had, and assuming Good as Hell notches enough points to sneak in, the cutoff point will be Beautiful at #100 and Go Loko at #99.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Adele could just have the new single debut around the start of the 2020 chart year and it will be easily be the YE #1, something Hello could've done given the huge points it got in the first three weeks that allowed it to enter the Top 40 of the 2015 YE (but if I recall, it didn't last long, so likely Hello could've barely miss being the YE #1 of 2016)

[85la]

Oct 23, 2019 20:56:24 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 23, 2019 20:47:50 GMT -5 85la said:

I don't think that logic really holds up. There's no way they would cut out weeks for so many years. Yes Billboard tries to keep it at 52 weeks most of the time, but they allow for 53 weeks every so often due to calendar irregularities, and it seems they would most likely do that as opposed to cutting out weeks entirely, which of course would put many songs at a disadvantage.

You're right that before, they've always started the tracking year with the issue dated the first week of December, but it's different now that the issues are dated a week earlier (yet still refer to the same weekly tracking period), so the new tracking year might actually start with the issue dated the last week of November, which this year is the 30th (which is maybe why Nov. 24 wasn't counted for last year). It's hard to say, if they were to keep it the old way, they would have one less week to compile the year-end issue if they still want to release it in early December when they usually do, in order to cash in on as much year-end visibility and holiday sales as possible. If they change it so that next tracking year begins with the issue dated the last week of November, It would in reality give them the same amount of time to compile and release the year-end issue as they usually do. I think they'll do the latter.

If what you're saying is true, I'm assuming they will count the week of November 24th, 2018 as the first week of the 2019 year end list?

yes

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

What are the chances that "Youngblood" re-enters the 2019 YE at the same place as it is last year, which is #36?

[rockgolf]

Oct 23, 2019 20:47:50 GMT -5 85la said:

I don't think that logic really holds up. There's no way they would cut out weeks for so many years. Yes Billboard tries to keep it at 52 weeks most of the time, but they allow for 53 weeks every so often due to calendar irregularities, and it seems they would most likely do that as opposed to cutting out weeks entirely, which of course would put many songs at a disadvantage.

It's uncommon (1 in 7 chance) that there are 53 Saturdays in a "year", but it's happening in the Dec 1, 2018 to Nov 23, 2019 period.
The previous chart year was additionally complicated in that, to try to bring chart-ending weeks closer to actual dates, Billboard published two charts in one week. Both covered 7-day periods, but the "Week Ending" date was moved closer to the actual calendar date.

In any case, any cut-off date is an artificial construct. That's why I replicated Fred Bronson's method of taking each song's complete chart run, placed in the year it first peaked, in my "complete" Top 100s on this board. (That odd spelling makes it easy to search for.)

That reminds me I should update the "complete" 2019 chart this weekend.

[GPMB]

Oct 24, 2019 6:09:48 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

What are the chances that "Youngblood" re-enters the 2019 YE at the same place as it is last year, which is #36?

if 11/24 is counted it could happen (though i dont think it will seeing as the only song that’s guaranteed to pass it is Goodbyes) but if it isn’t then there’s no chance at all