Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[rockgolf]

Oct 24, 2019 10:27:03 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Oct 24, 2019 6:09:48 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

What are the chances that "Youngblood" re-enters the 2019 YE at the same place as it is last year, which is #36?

if 11/24 is counted it could happen (though i dont think it will seeing as the only song that’s guaranteed to pass it is Goodbyes) but if it isn’t then there’s no chance at all

Under the "complete" chart algorithm, Youngblood would be the #17 song of 2018.

[GPMB]

oh no i just realized All I Want for Christmas Is You may re-enter the chart before the chart year is over and possibly make a shot at the YE

[inverse]

AIWFCIY is way too far away to make the year end list even if it reenters at like 20. I have it at 125 with 130500 and fhas had it at 137900 so it would basically have to get two weeks, one in the top ten, to have a chance. It's never done anything like that in November before.

[sirskimask]

Oct 24, 2019 15:33:05 GMT -5 GPMB said:

oh no i just realized All I Want for Christmas Is You may re-enter the chart before the chart year is over and possibly make a shot at the YE

It won't re-enter til at least the last week of November, too late for 2019

[hydraflare]

If Beautiful makes the year-end I'll be so mad. It would mean my 2018 barely missed rankdown was wrong

[Lukas]

Oct 24, 2019 18:14:09 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

If Beautiful makes the year-end I'll be so mad. It would mean my 2018 barely missed rankdown was wrong

But it barely missed that year end chart, so you wouldn't be wrong.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 24, 2019 18:14:09 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

If Beautiful makes the year-end I'll be so happy. It would mean my 2018 barely missed rankdown was wrong

It barely missed 2018, not 2019.

[Lukas]

Oct 23, 2019 23:24:59 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Adele could just have the new single debut around the start of the 2020 chart year and it will be easily be the YE #1, something Hello could've done given the huge points it got in the first three weeks that allowed it to enter the Top 40 of the 2015 YE (but if I recall, it didn't last long, so likely Hello could've barely miss being the YE #1 of 2016)

If Hello's first three weeks in 2015 were in 2016 it would've easily been #1 on the year end chart with the same points.

[hydraflare]

Oct 24, 2019 20:06:53 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Oct 24, 2019 18:14:09 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

If Beautiful makes the year-end I'll be so happy. It would mean my 2018 barely missed rankdown was wrong

It barely missed 2018, not 2019.

When making that rankdown, I removed songs that were either on the 2017 list or were going to make the 2019 year-end.

[mikerivera]

Oct 23, 2019 23:24:59 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Adele could just have the new single debut around the start of the 2020 chart year and it will be easily be the YE #1, something Hello could've done given the huge points it got in the first three weeks that allowed it to enter the Top 40 of the 2015 YE (but if I recall, it didn't last long, so likely Hello could've barely miss being the YE #1 of 2016)

No, it would have been the #1 song of 2016 with if its entire chart run was counted in that year. Then again though, if we’re counting a song’s entire run, then Closer would have had it beat by a considerable margin.

[GPMB]

with the release of the Ariana remix, Good as Hell is basically guaranteed to make the year end now, even if the week of 11/30 isn’t counted

i personally think it would be very funny if it made it right next to the other song that begins with the words “Good as”

[rockgolf]

My estimate of where the Billboard top 100 of the year currently stands, as of the October 26, 2019 chart. I've also added in the last column where every song will be if it stays in the same position for the next 4 remaining weeks in the year. It will adjust with each remaining week.

I expect Lizzo to move only 1 place next week, but pole vault into the top ten the week after, maybe getting as high as #8.

I'm including any songs in the top 110 this week or expected to reach the top 110 by year's end. I wouldn't count on HIGHEST to be on the list next week.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I really hope Lover and Beautiful make it.

[Deleted]

Oct 25, 2019 16:55:54 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^I really hope Lover and Beautiful make it.

Beautiful has a shot if November 24th, 2018 is counted towards the 2019 year end list. As for Lover, its chances aren't looking that good unless it makes some serious gains in the last month of tracking. At its current rate, even with the week of November 30th, 2019 counted, it would still fall just short of getting there (basing this out of fhas/rimetm's predictions list).

[rockgolf]

I've put a Spotify playlist of my current predictions in the expected order (going all the way to #111).

[dann]

Which week did OTR reach # 1 on projections?

[GPMB]

Oct 25, 2019 19:52:39 GMT -5 dann said:

Which week did OTR reach # 1 on projections?

for rimetm's, it was 6/29

[reputainbow]

whoops, i was supposed to post my monthly update this tuesday, but i must've forgotten lol.

also not doing all that coding since i've realized that takes way too long.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 100}1 Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 6278
2 Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 6165
3 Without Me (Halsey) 5902
4 Wow. (Post Malone) 4756
5 Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 4540
6 7 rings (Ariana Grande) 4540
7 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 4400
8 Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 4101
9 Talk (Khalid) 3994
10 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 3959
11 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 3788
12 Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 3729
13 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 3589
14 Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 3458
15 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 3033
16 I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 3012
17 Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 3010
18 Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 2910
19 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 2847
20 Better (Khalid) 2810
21 Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 2612
22 MIDDLE CHILD (J. Cole) 2513
23 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 2472
24 Suge (DaBaby) 2429
25 No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 2369
26 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 2310
27 Ran$om (Lil Tecca) 2064
28 If I Can't Have You (Shawn Mendes) 2036
29 Someone You Loved (Lewis Capaldi) 1980
30 Speechless (Dan + Shay) 1962
31 Please Me (Cardi B/Bruno Mars) 1911
32 Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 1819
33 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 1798
34 Better Now (Post Malone) 1782
35 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1764
36 Goodbyes (Post Malone/Young Thug) 1756
37 break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (Ariana Grande) 1731
38 A Lot (21 Savage) 1704
39 Money (Cardi B) 1697
40 Pop Out (Polo G/Lil Tjay) 1687
41 Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 1668
42 You Need to Calm Down (Taylor Swift) 1650
43 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 1623
44 Money In the Grave (Drake/Rick Ross) 1620
45 God's Country (Blake Shelton) 1620
46 Whiskey Glasses (Morgan Wallen) 1604
47 Pure Water (Mustard/Migos) 1559
48 Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 1528
49 Thotiana (Blueface) 1522
50 Envy Me (Calboy) 1498
51 ME! (Taylor Swift/Brendon Urie) 1497
52 Panini (Lil Nas X) 1491
53 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 1477
54 Close to Me (Ellie Goulding/Diplo/Swae Lee) 1458
55 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 1452
56 Beer Never Broke My Heart (Luke Combs) 1445
57 The London (Young Thug/J. Cole/Travis Scott) 1429
58 Hey Look Ma, I Made It (Panic! At the Disco) 1396
59 The Git Up (Blanco Brown) 1384
60 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 1363
61 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 1350
62 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 1337
63 Con Calma (Daddy Yankee/Katy Perry/Snow) 1335
64 Act Up (City Girls) 1320
65 Beautiful People (Ed Sheeran/Khalid) 1289
66 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 1211
67 Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 1189
68 Bury a Friend (Billie Eilish) 1176
69 Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) 1168
70 When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 1163
71 Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 1157
72 Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 1060
73 Knockin' Boots (Luke Bryan) 1055
74 Worth It (YK Osiris) 1043
75 My Type (Saweetie) 1016
76 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 988
77 Circles (Post Malone) 950
78 Clout (Offset/Cardi B) 944
79 Close Friends (Lil Baby) 939
80 Rumor (Lee Brice) 931
81 Trampoline (SHAED) 917
82 Baby (Lil Baby/DaBaby) 913
83 Look What God Gave Her (Thomas Rhett) 911
84 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 898
85 How Do You Sleep? (Sam Smith) 894
86 Good as You (Kane Brown) 893
87 Trip (Ella Mai) 887
88 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 838
89 Cash Shit (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 820
90 Shotta Flow (NLE Choppa) 815
91 Never Really Over (Katy Perry) 815
92 Boyfriend (Ariana Grande/Social House) 814
93 Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 803
94 Only Human (Jonas Brothers) 784
95 All to Myself (Dan + Shay) 779
96 Eyes on You (Chase Rice) 779
97 One Thing Right (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 777
98 Hot Girl Summer (Megan Thee Stallion/Nicki Minaj/Ty Dolla $ign) 768
99 Walk Me Home (P!nk) 737
100 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729

[GPMB]

So I’ve decided that I’m gonna do my own YE predictions this year, using an inverse point system based on the one Daniel Collins used (which can be found on page 7 of this thread) as well as his average point values for the top 25 (which can be found on page 13). To test its accuracy, this is what the 2018 year end would have looked like if this system was used

1. Perfect (1393370)
2. God’s Plan (1289160)
3. Meant to Be (1085080)
4. Girls like You (1047310)
5. Psycho (1004060)
6. I Like It (980110)
7. Havana (962560)
8. rockstar (931000)
9. Nice for What (895500)
10. The Middle (816120)
11. Lucid Dreams (786460)
12. In My Feelings (768140)
13. Better Now (740980)
14. Finesse (624190)
15. Boo’d Up (611450)
16. SAD! (589610)
17. New Rules (562340)
18. Love Lies (559000)
19. no tears left to cry (555210)
20. Look Alive (548710)
21. Never Be the Same (546160)
22. Mine (524410)
23. Thunder (523540)
24. Bad at Love (459850)
25. Delicate (452940)
26. Yes Indeed (451710)
27. SICKO MODE (450190)
28. Taste (433680)
29. FEFE (428020)
30. No Limit (426920)
31. FRIENDS (412460)
32. Youngblood (400100)
33. Let You Down (397490)
34. Gucci Gang (383570)
35. MotorSport (383080)
36. Tequila (366750)
37. Feel It Still (366100)
38. Pray for Me (358830)
39. I Like Me Better (356620)
40. Ric Flair Drip (347010)
41. Whatever It Takes (346760)
42. Back to You (346310)
43. Walk It Talk It (345720)
44. This Is America (343510)
45. Too Good at Goodbyes (341720)
46. I Fall Apart (341000)
47. Nonstop (331310)
48. Him & I (323500)
49. Stir Fry (322090)
50. All the Stars (319970)
51. LOVE. (318770)
52. Bodak Yellow (317580)
53. In My Blood (310410)
54. Freaky Friday (308410)
55. Heaven (294640)
56. GUMMO (290010)
57. God is a woman (282220)
58. Plug Walk (274590)
59. Big Bank (271410)
60. Be Careful (270260)
61. Wolves (268450)
62. Wait (267480)
63. Sorry Not Sorry (266130)
64. Bartier Cardi (260230)
65. Natural (256050)
66. Happier (255740)
67. How Long (255110)
68. Lights Down Low (250050)
69. No Brainer (246070)
70. Young Dumb & Broke (243950)
71. One Kiss (231330)
72. You Make It Easy (223120)
73. I Get the Bag (220650)
74. Shape of You (219260)
75. Eastside (218200)
76. Simple (212500)
77. Sky Walker (212430)
78. Te Boté (211500)
79. Plain Jane (210340)
80. Marry Me (209220)
81. Lemon (199900)
82. Call Out My Name (198370)
83. 1-800-273-8255 (197900)
84. What Lovers Do (197800)
85. King’s Dead (192630)
86. Get Along (192560)
87. Trip (191140)
88. Moonlight (188910)
89. I’m Upset (187620)
90. Say Something (185820)
91. X (185700)
92. Drip Too Hard (176980)
93. Mercy (176380)
94. One Number Away (175400)
95. Outside Today (173550)
96. Dura (173150)
97. changes (172970)
98. I’m a Mess (172900)
99. Mi Gente (169720)
100. broken (166830)

Obviously the biggest flaw with this system is that since I used an inverse point system for the entire chart and not just the bottom 70 or so, variance in points between high peaking songs couldn’t be taken into account, which is undoubtedly what put Perfect above God’s Plan in this instance, and may have also had to do with the fact that songs with high peaks but not many chart weeks (SICKO MODE, This Is America, Happier, Drip Too Hard) ended up way higher here than they did on the actual year end (this could have also had to do with In My Blood’s weirdly low position). Otherwise, though, I think it’s a pretty accurate point system

[Deleted]

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

[eidde]

^Besides those, I think Trampoline, Panini, and OTR have a shot.

[Deleted]

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

I have a proposal for the Year-End lists: If a song debuts in the Top 50 of one Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list unless it peaks within the following year's chart year. If a song debuts in the Top 25 of a Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list, period.

[Foxable]

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

Only Human has a very good shot to repeat, it hasn't even peaked yet.

[sirskimask]

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

Besides the ones you mentioned:
Old Town Road
Panini
Goodbyes (not confident about this one though)
Beautiful People (also not very confident, but moreso than Goodbyes)

[inverse]

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

There's also the songs that are still rising right now to consider. On Chill, Only Human, Good As Hell, and How Do You Sleep are all contenders too, although that last one I feel like is just about to peak. 

Beautiful People & Panini are also there and even songs like IDC and OTR could pull an I Like It and last well into next year.

[Deleted]

I don’t see a point in doing inverse year end charts , seems like a big waste of time since billboard tracks real points

[GPMB]

Oct 28, 2019 0:23:01 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

Besides the ones you mentioned:
Old Town Road
Panini
Goodbyes (not confident about this one though)
Beautiful People (also not very confident, but moreso than Goodbyes)

Goodbyes won’t since it’s momentum is basically over thanks to Circles and it keeps dropping in radio and probably all other categories
Beautiful People definitely will, it’s fucking Ed and Khalid the song is gonna stay on the Hot 100 for eternity

[rockgolf]

Oct 27, 2019 22:39:40 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I have a proposal for the Year-End lists: If a song debuts in the Top 50 of one Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list unless it peaks within the following year's chart year. If a song debuts in the Top 25 of a Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list, period.

The effect of that rule would only mean even weaker songs made the Top 100 list.

The Billboard year end top 100 is like cable news. It gets the information to you fast, but not necessarily right.

There should be the equivalent to a newspaper or history book that goes back and takes complete chart run regardless of whether they started in October of the previous year or finish in May of the following year. The closest to this is Fred Bronson's Hottest Hot 100 Hits book, but it stops around 2001.

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2019 8:14:55 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Oct 27, 2019 22:39:40 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I have a proposal for the Year-End lists: If a song debuts in the Top 50 of one Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list unless it peaks within the following year's chart year. If a song debuts in the Top 25 of a Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list, period.

The effect of that rule would only mean even weaker songs made the Top 100 list.

The Billboard year end top 100 is like cable news. It gets the information to you fast, but not necessarily right.

There should be the equivalent to a newspaper or history book that goes back and takes complete chart run regardless of whether they started in October of the previous year or finish in May of the following year. The closest to this is Fred Bronson's Hottest Hot 100 Hits book, but it stops around 2001.

I see your point, but there is no reason that Believer should make the 2018 list, even though it was already in the Year-End Top 10 for 2017 (although that probably has more to do with the Billboard Chart Year starting in December instead of January, another thing that I would change).

[twelvevinylrecords]

Can we at the very least agree that the Billboard list ending in November is wack?