Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[nathanalbright]

Oct 28, 2019 10:47:46 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Can we at the very least agree that the Billboard list ending in November is wack?

I think that's a safe thing to agree on, only justified in anyone's mind by the desire to have chart data as early as possible. 

[mikerivera]

Oct 27, 2019 22:39:40 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

I have a proposal for the Year-End lists: If a song debuts in the Top 50 of one Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list unless it peaks within the following year's chart year. If a song debuts in the Top 25 of a Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list, period.

So, the problem is that carrying over to another year end is often the only official way of actually demonstrating how popular a particular song was, unless you count the song’s entire run within a single year. Closer finished in the top 10 of both 2016 and 2017. Imagine if it was only allowed to finish in 2016. It would have been impossible to show how large and inescapable it was. Plus you also have situations like Bohemian Rhapsody, which was on the year end of both 1976 and 1992. Would it have really been fair to say that it wasn’t one of the 40 most popular songs both years, considering that it was two totally different chart runs?

[mikerivera]

Oct 28, 2019 1:44:50 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don’t see a point in doing inverse year end charts , seems like a big waste of time since billboard tracks real points

For making current predictions, yes. For making predictions about previous years, not necessarily. The goal is doing past years is to get a rough estimate of the points a song earned if you don’t have access to the data (which none of us do). And as long as you correct for the year end position and have an inverse system that is close to the average point total, you can get a decent idea.

[Lukas]

Oct 27, 2019 22:39:40 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Oct 27, 2019 21:19:02 GMT -5 @pete said:

I have not read this thread in months, so maybe this was already brought up, but I wanted to know what songs do you guys think will repeat in 2020?

Some obvious ones are Truth Hurts, Senorita, Someone You Loved, and Circles. A few others I think are possible are No Guidance, Ransom, and Bad Guy.

Not sure how many songs usually get that feat each year.

I have a proposal for the Year-End lists: If a song debuts in the Top 50 of one Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list unless it peaks within the following year's chart year. If a song debuts in the Top 25 of a Year-End list, it is ineligible to make the following year's list, period.

That really defeats the purpose of documenting the top 100 performing songs of the year if some songs aren't allowed to make it.

And that's really the point of songs making it in multiple years, to show the total performance of a song's chart run. As someone mentioned, this is why Closer deserves to have made the top 10 in both 2016 and 2017.

Also, nowhere did the poster state that songs making multiple year-ends is wrong or unnecessary.

[Deleted]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I understand where you guys are coming from. Closer was definitely massive well into 2017, so I can cut that one some slack. What I'm more upset about are songs like Blurred Lines, Shape Of You and Believer that peaked in the Summer of the year they first charted in, ended up in the Year-End Top 10 and yet still took up a spot on the following year's list (partially because Billboard's Chart Year begins a month before the calendar year, which is stupid and obsolete), even though they were at their most popular in the middle part of the previous year.

[Lukas]

Oct 28, 2019 11:42:21 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Oh, don't get me wrong, I understand where you guys are coming from. Closer was definitely massive well into 2017, so I can cut that one some slack. What I'm more upset about are songs like Blurred Lines, Shape Of You and Believer that peaked in the Summer of the year they first charted in, ended up in the Year-End Top 10 and yet still took up a spot on the following year's list (partially because Billboard's Chart Year begins a month before the calendar year, which is stupid and obsolete), even though they were at their most popular in the middle part of the previous year.

But what are you going to do about the songs that ended up pretty low on a year-end list and then went top 10 the year after (e.g. Havana)? Are you going to remove those too? See, with questions like these, it's usually just best to keep things the way they currently are.

The way I see it, as, if a song ended up at #3 on the year-end one year and then #80 the next, it should receive as much attention as if it ended up at #80 one year and then #3 the next.

[nathanalbright]

Oct 28, 2019 11:42:21 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Oh, don't get me wrong, I understand where you guys are coming from. Closer was definitely massive well into 2017, so I can cut that one some slack. What I'm more upset about are songs like Blurred Lines, Shape Of You and Believer that peaked in the Summer of the year they first charted in, ended up in the Year-End Top 10 and yet still took up a spot on the following year's list (partially because Billboard's Chart Year begins a month before the calendar year, which is stupid and obsolete), even though they were at their most popular in the middle part of the previous year.

Given the 50-20 and 25-52 rules for recurrency, for a hit to chart on multiple years demonstrates its longevity, and that is something that deserves to be recognized, even if it means that there are hits that just barely miss the Top 100 because they peak low and/or do not have enough weeks on the chart to overcome hits that simply refuse to go away.  To be sure, there are plenty of songs that I wish would go away faster, but I don't think this is the right way to achieve that desired end.

[Deleted]

I think Good As Hell should be able to make it as long as it rises into the top 10 and stays there for the final 3 weeks. Considering Lizzo dropped a remix with Ariana Grande that might boost the song into the top 5, I think its chances of making the 2019 year end list is more likely than not.

[fishingfor8]

Hey long time lurker here. So what are the strongest songs caught between years during this decade? I know Beautiful by Bazzi is a likely recent example for that. The way life goes was maybe another one?

[rainie]

imo...

Near Locks to Repeat:
Truth Hurts
Senorita
Circles
Highest in the Room


Will Likely Repeat:
Someone You Loved
Bad Guy
Ransom
No Guidance
I Don't Care
Panini (moreso then others since its still gaining on radio)
Sucker (got a feeling this'll stick around for a while and be a potential 52 weeker)


50/50:
Beautiful People (this is beginning to peak on radio so I see it falling soon)
Old Town Road (i think this'll keep dropping quickly)
Talk
Baby
Trampoline (radio seems almost ready to drop it and idk how much else it has going for it)
Only Human (see above)
How Do You Sleep (see above)


Will Likely Not Repeat:
Money In the Grave
Suge
One Thing Right


Will Almost Certainly Not Repeat:
most other songs i didn't mention

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:12 GMT -5 rainie said:

imo...

Near Locks to Repeat:
Truth Hurts
Senorita
Circles
Highest in the Room


Will Likely Repeat:
Someone You Loved
Bad Guy
Ransom
No Guidance
I Don't Care
Panini (moreso then others since its still gaining on radio)
Sucker (got a feeling this'll stick around for a while and be a potential 52 weeker)


50/50:
Beautiful People (this is beginning to peak on radio so I see it falling soon)
Old Town Road (i think this'll keep dropping quickly)
Talk
Baby
Trampoline (radio seems almost ready to drop it and idk how much else it has going for it)
Only Human (see above)
How Do You Sleep (see above)


Will Likely Not Repeat:
Money In the Grave
Suge
One Thing Right


Will Almost Certainly Not Repeat:
most other songs i didn't mention

Not sure if I would put HIGHEST IN THE ROOM as a near lock to repeat. It would have to make the 2019 year end list first to do so, and unless November 30th, 2019 counts, it will have little chance.

[inverse]

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:03 GMT -5 fishingfor8 said:

Hey long time lurker here. So what are the strongest songs caught between years during this decade? I know Beautiful by Bazzi is a likely recent example for that. The way life goes was maybe another one?

Here's the top ten so far. The numbers don't matter that much they can just be used to compare the relative strength of songs

Kanye West, Jay-Z, Big Sean - Clique 336082
Kelly Clarkson - Mr. Know It All 333524
Sia f/ Kendrick Lamar - The Greatest 311174
Chris Brown f/ Nicki Minaj - Love More 293949
Fetty Wap - Again 281800
Jason Derulo - It Girl 279172
Sage The Gemini f/ IAmSu! - Gas Pedal 274350
Rob $tone f/ J Davi$, Spooks - Chill Bill 266650
Future f/ Drake - Where Ya At 259350
Frank Ocean - Thinkin Bout You 257450

[mikerivera]

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:03 GMT -5 fishingfor8 said:

Hey long time lurker here. So what are the strongest songs caught between years during this decade? I know Beautiful by Bazzi is a likely recent example for that. The way life goes was maybe another one?

If you count a song’s full run in a single year, some of the biggest songs that were caught between years would be: 

The Greatest-Sia ft. Kendrick Lamar (#58 in 2016)
Love More (#62 in 2013)
Again-Fetty Wap (#66 in 2015)
Chill Bill (#67 in 2016)
Ooouuu (#70 in 2016)
Broken (#68 in 2018)
Gas Pedal (#68 in 2013)
Roll in Peace (#70 in 2018)
Unconditionally (#70 in 2014)
Uproar (#71 in 2018)
She Got the Best of Me (#73 in 2018)
...Ready For It, The Weekend & This Town (#74-76 respectively in 2017)
Rap God (#75 in 2013)
Stolen Dance (#76 in 2014)
Where Ya At (#72 in 2015)

And since you mentioned those other two songs, Beautiful would have been #53 in 2018, and The Way Life Goes would have been #71 in 2017

[sirskimask]

So is Boyfriend still making the list or what? Barely hung on this week at 99 but it's gone next week.

[inverse]

^ It's hard to say. This week it moves up to 97 (between Trip and Go Loko) and so the first question is are four songs gonna pass it in the next three weeks. Hot Girl Summer is a guarantee and On Chill and Good As Hell are probably gonna both get there as well. I don't think Lover or HITR will though, meaning that at week 52 it'll be projected at 100. But of course the other thing to consider is what if that week is actually week 53, then Tequila and Love Lies would pass it and push it off. Or what if the last week in November this year is counted then it'll be passed by Lover, HITR, and maybe Ballin and be pushed off. And of course there's also margin of error to consider, Boyfriend could easily be below some songs it's predicted to beat. In short it's a possibility but there's a lot of ways it could miss.

[rainie]

Oct 28, 2019 14:27:02 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:12 GMT -5 rainie said:

imo...

Near Locks to Repeat:
Truth Hurts
Senorita
Circles
Highest in the Room


Will Likely Repeat:
Someone You Loved
Bad Guy
Ransom
No Guidance
I Don't Care
Panini (moreso then others since its still gaining on radio)
Sucker (got a feeling this'll stick around for a while and be a potential 52 weeker)


50/50:
Beautiful People (this is beginning to peak on radio so I see it falling soon)
Old Town Road (i think this'll keep dropping quickly)
Talk
Baby
Trampoline (radio seems almost ready to drop it and idk how much else it has going for it)
Only Human (see above)
How Do You Sleep (see above)


Will Likely Not Repeat:
Money In the Grave
Suge
One Thing Right


Will Almost Certainly Not Repeat:
most other songs i didn't mention

Not sure if I would put HIGHEST IN THE ROOM as a near lock to repeat. It would have to make the 2019 year end list first to do so, and unless November 30th, 2019 counts, it will have little chance.

oh my b, thought it was a lock. that said, aren't we assuming November 30th counts? the 24th being omitted but the 30th being included to make up a 53 week year would make the most sense imo.

[Deleted]

One Man Band looks like will be a pretty big hit for a country song but maybe get caught between years (I hope not). Any other songs in similar situation?

[HeyHeyHey]

Oct 28, 2019 15:16:12 GMT -5 @pete said:

One Man Band looks like will be a pretty big hit for a country song but maybe get caught between years (I hope not). Any other songs in similar situation?

I love that song and it is too bad it will most likely be caught between years “Even Though I’m Leaving” by Luke Combs may suffer the same fate since it’s looking like a pretty big hit for a country song on the Hot 100 but it will be #1 on Country Airplay in November/December.

[ramona wants sleep]

Oct 28, 2019 14:43:46 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:03 GMT -5 fishingfor8 said:

Hey long time lurker here. So what are the strongest songs caught between years during this decade? I know Beautiful by Bazzi is a likely recent example for that. The way life goes was maybe another one?

If you count a song’s full run in a single year, some of the biggest songs that were caught between years would be: 

The Greatest-Sia ft. Kendrick Lamar (#58 in 2016)
Love More (#62 in 2013)
Again-Fetty Wap (#66 in 2015)
Chill Bill (#67 in 2016)
Ooouuu (#70 in 2016)
Broken (#68 in 2018)
Gas Pedal (#68 in 2013)
Roll in Peace (#70 in 2018)
Unconditionally (#70 in 2014)
Uproar (#71 in 2018)
She Got the Best of Me (#73 in 2018)
...Ready For It, The Weekend & This Town (#74-76 respectively in 2017)
Rap God (#75 in 2013)
Stolen Dance (#76 in 2014)
Where Ya At (#72 in 2015)

And since you mentioned those other two songs, Beautiful would have been #53 in 2018, and The Way Life Goes would have been #71 in 2017

Would In The Name Of Love have made 2016/17’s list if it wasn’t caught in between years?

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2019 16:02:31 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

Oct 28, 2019 15:16:12 GMT -5 @pete said:

One Man Band looks like will be a pretty big hit for a country song but maybe get caught between years (I hope not). Any other songs in similar situation?

I love that song and it is too bad it will most likely be caught between years “Even Though I’m Leaving” by Luke Combs may suffer the same fate since it’s looking like a pretty big hit for a country song on the Hot 100 but it will be #1 on Country Airplay in November/December.

I swear, if Christmas songs from decades ago keep Even Though I'm Leaving from making 2020's Year-End List, I will be livid  > .

[GPMB]

there’s no way in hell Talk will be able to repeat. it fell to #22 this week and only has 11 (or 12 if 11/30 is counted for 2020) chart weeks next year, and it could also get pushed off the charts by Christmas music

Oct 28, 2019 14:43:46 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Oct 28, 2019 14:09:03 GMT -5 fishingfor8 said:

Hey long time lurker here. So what are the strongest songs caught between years during this decade? I know Beautiful by Bazzi is a likely recent example for that. The way life goes was maybe another one?

If you count a song’s full run in a single year, some of the biggest songs that were caught between years would be: 

The Greatest-Sia ft. Kendrick Lamar (#58 in 2016)
Love More (#62 in 2013)
Again-Fetty Wap (#66 in 2015)
Chill Bill (#67 in 2016)
Ooouuu (#70 in 2016)
Broken (#68 in 2018)
Gas Pedal (#68 in 2013)
Roll in Peace (#70 in 2018)
Unconditionally (#70 in 2014)
Uproar (#71 in 2018)
She Got the Best of Me (#73 in 2018)
...Ready For It, The Weekend & This Town (#74-76 respectively in 2017)
Rap God (#75 in 2013)
Stolen Dance (#76 in 2014)
Where Ya At (#72 in 2015)

And since you mentioned those other two songs, Beautiful would have been #53 in 2018, and The Way Life Goes would have been #71 in 2017

what about HeadBand?

[Deleted]

It looks like Boyfriend will be kicked out next week by Kanye West. I have it at around 1690 points, which means it will just barely miss.

[inverse]

Oct 28, 2019 20:28:31 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there’s no way in hell Talk will be able to repeat. it fell to #22 this week and only has 11 (or 12 if 11/30 is counted for 2020) chart weeks next year, and it could also get pushed off the charts by Christmas music

Oct 28, 2019 14:43:46 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

If you count a song’s full run in a single year, some of the biggest songs that were caught between years would be: 

The Greatest-Sia ft. Kendrick Lamar (#58 in 2016)
Love More (#62 in 2013)
Again-Fetty Wap (#66 in 2015)
Chill Bill (#67 in 2016)
Ooouuu (#70 in 2016)
Broken (#68 in 2018)
Gas Pedal (#68 in 2013)
Roll in Peace (#70 in 2018)
Unconditionally (#70 in 2014)
Uproar (#71 in 2018)
She Got the Best of Me (#73 in 2018)
...Ready For It, The Weekend & This Town (#74-76 respectively in 2017)
Rap God (#75 in 2013)
Stolen Dance (#76 in 2014)
Where Ya At (#72 in 2015)

And since you mentioned those other two songs, Beautiful would have been #53 in 2018, and The Way Life Goes would have been #71 in 2017

what about HeadBand?

Headband would have been close but not quite. It had one less week than El Perdon and the weeks that it did have were weaker overall. Have it between Really Don't Care and Love Me Again

In The Name Of Love totally would have made it at about 71 

[sirskimask]

Oct 28, 2019 19:23:18 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Oct 28, 2019 16:02:31 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

I love that song and it is too bad it will most likely be caught between years “Even Though I’m Leaving” by Luke Combs may suffer the same fate since it’s looking like a pretty big hit for a country song on the Hot 100 but it will be #1 on Country Airplay in November/December.

I swear, if Christmas songs from decades ago keep Even Though I'm Leaving from making 2020's Year-End List, I will be livid  .

They're gonna have to do something about the Christmas songs soon, because if the same 2-3 songs end up on the YE list every year it'll be ridiculous.

[Deleted]

I will be able to add back the songs I removed last week since I will finally have more time next week. Here's what I got for now though.

Songs That Locked This Week:
-Circles
-Only Human

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 84. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Knockin' Boots 2263

?) Trampoline 2192 (+157)
?) Circles 2118 (+285)
80) Rumor 2012
81) Clout 1991
82) Good As You 1968
83) Look What God Gave Her 1965

84) Only Human 1936 (+150)

- - - - - LOCKED (1900 Points) - - - - -

85) Cash s**t 1878 (+95)
86) Shotta Flow 1877
87) Baby 1861 (+130)
88) All To Myself 1842
89) How Do You Sleep? 1835 (+132)
90) One Thing Right 1829 (+124)
91) This Is It 1809
92) Eyes On You 1803
93) Trip 1788
94) Talk You Out Of It 1772

95) Tequila 1742

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

96) Walk Me Home 1733
97) Go Loko 1710

98) GIRL 1709

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

?) Boyfriend 1690 (+57)
?) Hot Girl Summer 1612 (+125)
?) Lover 1355 (+122)
?) On Chill 1334 (+142)
?) Ballin’ 1272 (+136)
?) Good As Hell 1199 (+192)
?) Highest In The Room 839 (+218)

[lights]

[rimetm]

November 2, 2019 - 50/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[Deleted]

I calculated some songs that are toss ups in sneaking into the 2019 year end list late. I used the total points if things stay the same method, and this is based off of fhas/rimetm's list.

On Chill 161280
Good As Hell 161090
Lover 156780
Ballin' 155060
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 153233

Here are the total points if November 30th, 2019 is included.

Good As Hell 178790
On Chill 174490
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 174297
Ballin' 168110
Lover 167160

[Deleted]

Hopefully 7 rings is #7.

[mikerivera]

Oct 28, 2019 18:32:45 GMT -5 ramona wants sleep said:

Oct 28, 2019 14:43:46 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Would In The Name Of Love have made 2016/17’s list if it wasn’t caught in between years?

Yes, it would have been #72 on the 2016 list