Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[GPMB]

Nov 2, 2019 10:58:04 GMT -5 junkie said:

Are we all 100% sure that EARFQUAKE won't make the year end list? Tyler is such a talented artist and it would suck to just barely miss his chance at getting an actual hit after a whole decade of making music

unfortunately, yes :(

[inverse]

Nov 2, 2019 10:58:04 GMT -5 junkie said:

Are we all 100% sure that EARFQUAKE won't make the year end list? Tyler is such a talented artist and it would suck to just barely miss his chance at getting an actual hit after a whole decade of making music

I mean I get it that it would be cool to see it on the YE but at the same time for artists like Tyler I think the actual album is more important than having a hit single like if you look at his album from 2017 Flower Boy still has a ton of fans and en enduring legacy whereas that random French Montana hit song from that year although it made the top 20 year end nobody cares at all now. So you'd much rather have Flower Boy and I'm pretty sure that's gonna happen with IGOR as well even if the biggest song doesn't make the year end list.

[GPMB]

i really love the new 21 Savage song, hope it can make 2020 YE

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 2, 2019 9:28:47 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 2, 2019 4:39:16 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Does anyone know what the biggest songs to peak at #11 and #12 are?

Say You Won’t Let Go for #11, and Redbone for #12. And yes, that is across the entire decade

In terms of YE placement, "Say You Won't Let Go" is correct for #11 (placed also #11). But not for "Redbone" that placed #25, there are some #12 peaking songs that placed higher than "Redbone", like Taylor Swift's "Delicate" (#24) and Fifth Harmony/Kid Ink's "Worth It" (#23).

[mikerivera]

Nov 2, 2019 19:02:10 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Nov 2, 2019 9:28:47 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Say You Won’t Let Go for #11, and Redbone for #12. And yes, that is across the entire decade

In terms of YE placement, "Say You Won't Let Go" is correct for #11 (placed also #11). But not for "Redbone" that placed #25, there are some #12 peaking songs that placed higher than "Redbone", like Taylor Swift's "Delicate" (#24) and Fifth Harmony/Kid Ink's "Worth It" (#23).

Yes, but Redbone finished with more points than either of those songs. Not a lot more, but a little bit more. Which makes sense, because different year ends typically have different ranges where they’re stronger, and Redbone finished with more overall weeks than Worth It or Delicate.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 2, 2019 19:57:57 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 2, 2019 19:02:10 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

In terms of YE placement, "Say You Won't Let Go" is correct for #11 (placed also #11). But not for "Redbone" that placed #25, there are some #12 peaking songs that placed higher than "Redbone", like Taylor Swift's "Delicate" (#24) and Fifth Harmony/Kid Ink's "Worth It" (#23).

Yes, but Redbone finished with more points than either of those songs. Not a lot more, but a little bit more. Which makes sense, because different year ends typically have different ranges where they’re stronger, and Redbone finished with more overall weeks than Worth It or Delicate.

^yeah should've clarified my question. Should've said which songs had the most points, not which had the highest year-end placement.

[inverse]

Nov 2, 2019 19:57:57 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 2, 2019 19:02:10 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

In terms of YE placement, "Say You Won't Let Go" is correct for #11 (placed also #11). But not for "Redbone" that placed #25, there are some #12 peaking songs that placed higher than "Redbone", like Taylor Swift's "Delicate" (#24) and Fifth Harmony/Kid Ink's "Worth It" (#23).

Yes, but Redbone finished with more points than either of those songs. Not a lot more, but a little bit more. Which makes sense, because different year ends typically have different ranges where they’re stronger, and Redbone finished with more overall weeks than Worth It or Delicate.

How many do you have Redbone with vs. Breakeven and Jumpman? Because I estimated that those two would be higher but it's a fixed point system so if Redbone was exceptionally strong it might beat them

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Also in terms of #11 songs, where would Mine, and Best Day of My Life rank?

[mikerivera]

Nov 4, 2019 0:44:32 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nov 2, 2019 19:57:57 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Yes, but Redbone finished with more points than either of those songs. Not a lot more, but a little bit more. Which makes sense, because different year ends typically have different ranges where they’re stronger, and Redbone finished with more overall weeks than Worth It or Delicate.

How many do you have Redbone with vs. Breakeven and Jumpman? Because I estimated that those two would be higher but it's a fixed point system so if Redbone was exceptionally strong it might beat them

I have Redbone about 10,000 points higher than Jumpman. I haven’t calculated Breakeven yet because I’m still working on the 2011 year end. It’s possible that Breakeven still tops it

[mikerivera]

Nov 4, 2019 1:48:59 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also in terms of #11 songs, where would Mine, and Best Day of My Life rank?

Mine is the 2nd biggest #11 song, Best Day of My Life would rank behind Issues and Slow Hands.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Good as Hell jumped from 14 to 6, are we in agreement that it will probably just barely make the list?

[tuna]

Nov 4, 2019 13:07:42 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Good as Hell jumped from 14 to 6, are we in agreement that it will probably just barely make the list?

Probably will in the 80s or 70s, although I don't know anything

It's possible that it might hit #1 in November which would lock it

[GPMB]

so Trampoline is basically locked to repeat in 2020

[nathanalbright]

Nov 4, 2019 21:31:03 GMT -5 GPMB said:

so Trampoline is basically locked to repeat in 2020

It's a little early to be talking about "locked to repeat in 2020."  Let's have this conversation in February or March.

[tuna]

Nov 4, 2019 21:38:47 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 4, 2019 21:31:03 GMT -5 GPMB said:

so Trampoline is basically locked to repeat in 2020

It's a little early to be talking about "locked to repeat in 2020."  Let's have this conversation in February or March.

Eh, I think there's a high probability of it repeating. It's already locked for this year and it hasn't even hit its peak on any platform

[nathanalbright]

Nov 4, 2019 21:42:30 GMT -5 tuna said:

Nov 4, 2019 21:38:47 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

It's a little early to be talking about "locked to repeat in 2020."  Let's have this conversation in February or March.

Eh, I think there's a high probability of it repeating. It's already locked for this year and it hasn't even hit its peak on any platform

That's fair enough, but as we learned recently with the abrupt fall of "Boyfriend," "basically locked" is way too premature before the 2020 chart year has even started.

[GPMB]

yeah i was thinking it could end up like Trip, but it could also end up like Natural on second thought

[n13l5]

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2019 2:06:03 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

Well HIGHEST IN THE ROOM is out of the question for making the 2019 year end list without the week of November 30th, 2019.

Even with the week included it might just miss out. As for 2020, it is too early to tell whether or not it will stabilize or continue to fall.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Locked This Week:

-Baby

-How Do You Sleep?

-Cash s**t

-One Thing Right

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 88. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Circles 2406 (+288)
?) Trampoline 2377 (+185)
?) Knockin' Boots 2263
?) Only Human 2093 (+157)
81) Rumor 2012
82) Clout 1991
83) Baby 1990 (+129)
84) How Do You Sleep? 1973 (+138)
85) Good As You 1968
86) Look What God Gave Her 1965
87) Cash s**t 1960 (+82)
88) One Thing Right 1950 (+121)

- - - - - LOCKED (1900 Points) - - - - -

89) Shotta Flow 1877
90) All To Myself 1842
91) This Is It 1809
92) Eyes On You 1803
93) Trip 1788
94) Talk You Out Of It 1772
95) Tequila 1742

96) Hot Girl Summer 1736 (+124)

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

97) Walk Me Home 1733
98) Go Loko 1710
99) GIRL 1709
100) Boyfriend 1690
101) Callaita 1685
102) Robbery 1677
103) Otro Trago 1671
104) Here Tonight 1664
105) Love Lies 1653
106) Beautiful 1590
107) I Don't Know About You 1573 (+84)
108) China 1487 (+77)
109) Lover 1475 (+120)
110) On Chill 1474 (+140)

111) Good As Hell 1468 (+269)

112) Lalala 1446 (+70)

113) Time 1433 (+118)

114) Ballin’ 1410 (+138)
115) Hot 1397 (+130)
116) Highest In The Room 1038 (+199)

Dropouts:
-Boyfriend 1690 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)
-Callaita 1685 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)
-Otro Trago 1671 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is counted towards the 2019 year end list:

88) Trip 1952

89) One Thing Right 1950 (+121)
- - - - - LOCKED (1900 Points) - - - - -

90) Shotta Flow 1877

91) Tequila 1866

92) All To Myself 1842
93) This Is It 1809
94) Eyes On You 1803
95) Love Lies 1803
96) Talk You Out Of It 1772

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

97) Hot Girl Summer 1736 (+124)

98) Walk Me Home 1733

99) Beautiful 1718

100) Go Loko 1710
101) GIRL 1709

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 2982
?) Trampoline 2747
?) Only Human 2407
?) How Do You Sleep? 2249
?) Baby 2248
?) One Thing Right 2192
?) Cash s**t 2042
85) Rumor 2012
86) Good As Hell 2006
87) Clout 1991
88) Hot Girl Summer 1984
89) Good As You 1968
90) Look What God Gave Her 1965
91) Shotta Flow 1877
92) All To Myself 1842
93) This Is It 1809
94) Eyes On You 1803
95) Trip 1788
96) Talk You Out Of It 1772
97) On Chill 1754
98) Tequila 1742
99) I Don’t Know About You 1741

100) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Lover 1715
102) Go Loko 1710
103) GIRL 1709
104) Boyfriend 1690
105) Ballin’ 1686
106) Callaita 1685
107) Robbery 1677
108) Otro Trago 1671
109) Time 1669
110) Here Tonight 1664
111) Hot 1657
112) Love Lies 1653
?) China 1641
?) Beautiful 1590
?) Lalala 1586
?) Highest In The Room 1436

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is counted towards the 2019 year end list:

91) Trip 1952

92) Shotta Flow 1877

93) Tequila 1866

94) All To Myself 1842
95) This Is It 1809

96) Eyes On You 1803

97) Love Lies 1803

98) Talk You Out Of It 1772
99) On Chill 1754
100) I Don’t Know About You 1741
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Walk Me Home 1733

102) Beautiful 1718

103) Lover 1715
104) Go Loko 1710
105) GIRL 1709

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Hot Girl Summer

Likely:
Good As Hell

Toss Up:
On Chill
Ballin'

Hot

Unlikely:

Lover
Time

Highest In The Room

No Chance:

I Don't Know About You

China
Lalala

[lights]

[lights]

For what it's worth, Youngblood is looking pretty certain to repeat at #36 in my predictions. Money in the Grave and Panini should pass it, You Need To Calm Down shouldn't.

[GPMB]

honestly a bit of a shame that Callaíta will miss out, it’s my favorite reggaeton hit in a while

[nathanalbright]

Nov 5, 2019 2:06:03 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

I believe that Fantasia's "I Believe" was the last one to manage that.

[inverse]

Week 50. The 101-110 range didn't have any new entries from last week so I'm not gonna worry about including it again. 

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1577150
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1192800
3	Halsey	Without Me	1089650
4	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	897650
5	Post Malone	Wow	873880
6	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
7	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
8	Khalid	Talk	788350
9	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	763700
10	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
11	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
12	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	694900
13	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	684780
14	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
15	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	615000
16	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	611300
17	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
18	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
19	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
20	Khalid	Better	536600
21	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
22	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	511770
23	DaBaby	Suge	503450
24	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
25	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
26	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	452700
27	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
28	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	438550
29	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	406280
30	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	378150
31	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
32	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
33	Dan + Shay	Speechless	357500
34	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	355850
35	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
36	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	343550
37	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
38	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
39	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
40	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
41	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	334100
42	Cardi B	Money	331850
43	Lil Nas X	Panini	329580
44	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
45	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
46	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
47	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
48	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
49	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
50	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
51	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
52	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	282230
53	Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid	Beautiful People	280850
54	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
55	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
56	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	274300
57	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
58	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	266550
59	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
60	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
61	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
62	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
63	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	262850
64	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
65	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
66	City Girls	Act Up	246500
67	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
68	Post Malone	Circles	240600
69	SHAED	Trampoline	231500
70	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
71	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
72	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	217350
73	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
74	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
75	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
76	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
77	Saweetie	My Type	208340
78	Jonas Brothers	Only Human	204030
79	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
80	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
81	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
82	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
83	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
84	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
85	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
86	Lil Baby & DaBaby	Baby	186830
87	Sam Smith	How Do You Sleep?	186100
88	Megan Thee Stallion f/ DaBaby	Cash $hit	183150
89	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
90	Marshmello & Kane Brown	One Thing Right	180600
91	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	174150
92	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
93	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
94	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
95	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
96	Megan Thee Stallion f/ Nicki Minaj, Ty Dolla $ign	Hot Girl Summer	164180
97	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
98	Ariana Grande & Social House	Boyfriend	163900
99	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	162100
100	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070

 - Senorita looks like it'll pass TUN and take #14 on the year end.
 - Beautiful People will jump into the top 50 next week. Whether Circles will be able to get there remains unclear.
 - Good As Hell has a chance to enter the top 100 next week, if not it'll get in for sure in two.
 - How the heck is Worth It still at 71 that doesn't make any sense. Whatever we'll see where it is when the year end comes out

[nathanalbright]

Panini looks like a lock for the top 40 as well, which was a question someone had a few weeks ago here.

[Kris]

Looking at the gap between Sunflower and OTR, what's the biggest gap ever between year end #1s and #2s? I assume Candle In the Wind, but is there another?

[inverse]

I don't think CITW would have been a very big gap between #1 and #2 it only had 8 weeks and You Were Meant For Me was huge that year.

Uptown Funk is probably the biggest lead for a #1 year end song followed by We Belong Together or Yeah

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 5, 2019 13:59:36 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 5, 2019 2:06:03 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

I believe that Fantasia's "I Believe" was the last one to manage that.

If I'm not mistaken the only one this century.

[nathanalbright]

Nov 5, 2019 15:18:12 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Nov 5, 2019 13:59:36 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I believe that Fantasia's "I Believe" was the last one to manage that.

If I'm not mistaken the only one.

It happened quite a lot in the past, such as in the 70's, when there was insane amount of turnover on the Hot 100 to the point of 30+ #1 hits in the course of a year, but recently, it is a very rare phenomenon.

For example, John Lennon's "Whatever Gets You Through The Night" hit #1 on November 16, 1974 but got caught between years, and the same was true for the #1 hit for November 2, Stevie Wonder's "You Haven't Done Nothin."  The same thing happened to Steve Miller's Rockin' Me, which hit #1 in November of 1976.  I could go on...