Mariah Carey: "IT'S TIME" 👑

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Dec 15, 2020 20:20:22 GMT -5 Positive Tension said:

I love Mariah and really like Taylor, so the tactics for getting Taylor to #1 don't bother me. However, is this a case where her song will get to #1 and drop like a rock? I know a couple of Mariah's #1s had fast rises and falls, but they still had a relatively average chart run of at least 20 weeks. The climate is different today, but if I were Taylor, I'd prefer a more organic run like "Delicate."

For the most part, most of the #1 debuts this year (and there have been a lot; the most of any year) had big drops.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 15, 2020 20:15:17 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

Dec 15, 2020 19:55:21 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Did I say I had an issue with Swift? I am flummoxed.

I simply noted Swift's team is out for the #1. Nothing that, or other things, is not the same as liking (or disliking) it.

Do I think some of Mariah's #1s were the most popular song the week they hit #1? Not necessarily. I also think what Mariah did is different from what BTS, Swift, etc are doing. Mariah remixed her songs out of a creative outlet, and they were actively worked to specific audiences. BTS and Swift are releasing remixes all in the same week to try and continue to boost sales throughout the week to get a #1. I also think delaying the release of a commercial single to get #1 is different because those were still popular songs just trying to maximize their popularity, versus manipulating stans to buy things to make a song more popular than it actually is.

Not an issue with her personally, with the tactics. Your posts in the Hot 100 thread seem to suggest the same.

Obviously the tactics aren't identical because they're 20+ years apart in very different environments, but this just seems like silly stan war nonsense to me. I'll take Mariah over Taylor any day of the week and would rather see Mariah at #1 than Taylor, but I can't fault Taylor and her team for taking advantage of every opportunity to boost her songs to #1 when it works and when I defend Mariah's decisions to do the same in her prime. You could argue Mariah was manipulating the charts when "Loverboy" was deeply discounted and her fans were buying her singles in large quantities... "Loverboy" went all the way to #2 on the Hot 100 despite only peaking at #50 in Airplay so you could argue that was an attempt to "make a song more popular than it actually is". It just seems very hypocritical to me to any Mariah fan, who know these same criticism were lodged against Mariah back in the 90s and early 00s, now turn around and start accusing Taylor Swift of the same thing Mariah was accused of..

So... Team Mariah, but I'm not mad at Taylor's team for pulling out the stops to boost her chart potential. 

I don't think "Loverboy" deserved to be #1. I also shouldn't be held accountable for things other Mariah fans say.

[carrieidol1]

Dec 14, 2020 14:39:56 GMT -5 cking33 said:

Dec 14, 2020 14:13:37 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

RIAA.com:

MARIAH CAREY
Title: MERRY CHRISTMAS
Certification Date: December 14, 2020
Label: LEGACY
Format: ALBUM
7xP, 8xP

and...

MARIAH CAREY
Title: ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS YOU
Certification Date: December 14, 2020
Label: COLUMBIA
Format: SINGLE
7xP, 8xP

These are huge. Love to see it.

Considering it’s experiencing a generational rebirth, I don’t think it’s too far down the road.

[sundaymorningguy]

I can’t be so pressed when Mariah already reached number 1 with it. Taylor might take it for a week, and then Mariah could be right back to number 1. I guess people want her to have that start and end the year with the number 1 song and the same song at that record.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2020 22:33:00 GMT -5 sundaymorningguy said:

I can’t be so pressed when Mariah already reached number 1 with it. Taylor might take it for a week, and then Mariah could be right back to number 1. I guess people want her to have that start and end the year with the number 1 song and the same song at that record.

I think there might also be some thinking far ahead to Mariah potentially taking back her most weeks at #1 record. That would be several years from now, but racking up as many multiweek #1 years as possible would hasten that process.

[cking33]

Dec 15, 2020 22:59:43 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

Dec 15, 2020 22:33:00 GMT -5 sundaymorningguy said:

I can’t be so pressed when Mariah already reached number 1 with it. Taylor might take it for a week, and then Mariah could be right back to number 1. I guess people want her to have that start and end the year with the number 1 song and the same song at that record.

I think there might also be some thinking far ahead to Mariah potentially taking back her most weeks at #1 record. That would be several years from now, but racking up as many multiweek #1 years as possible would hasten that process.

I get that but to quote Carole King we’re so far away from that happening it shouldn’t be that big of a concern. For Mariah to do that we need her to get 16 more weeks which is gonna probably take 5 more years at minimum, assuming she gets at least one more week this year. So much can change ... how people consume music, chart rules and how they’re tabulated ... in the interim, factors beyond the song’s control. I’d love to see her reclaim that record but it’s gonna take a lot of luck to get there.

[back2blk]

The way you guys discuss charts and certifications in here is academic!!

I'm over here talking about "I like what she did with Sleigh Ride".

LMAO.

[cking33]

I noticed BTS put out a playlist of their top 25 favorite holiday songs on Spotify (and Apple Music). AIWFCIY was on there, RATCT wasn't. I wonder what effect, if any, that might have on the respective Spotify numbers. Or if it won't matter much.

[iHype.]

How in the world did Merry Christmas go from 6x Platinum to 8x Platinum in one year? I'm wondering if that is a mistake with AIWFCIY's cert being mixed up on their site or something.

Even if it was at 6.9 million last year, there's no way it did another 1.1 million. I don't think it's done more than 500k the past year.

[cking33]

Dec 16, 2020 1:36:59 GMT -5 iHype. said:

How in the world did Merry Christmas go from 6x Platinum to 8x Platinum in one year? I'm wondering if that is a mistake with AIWFCIY's cert being mixed up on their site or something.

Even if it was at 6.9 million last year, there's no way it did another 1.1 million. I don't think it's done more than 500k the past year.

I’m guessing the answer to your question comes in another gap in time ... 2003 and 2019. That’s the time it took, 16 years, to go from 5x platinum to 6x platinum despite a steady presence every holiday season and AIWFCIY only rising in popularity each year. 16 years would require about 62,500 copies each year sold to get you 1,000,000 sold. I’m guessing it did more than that a lot of years? That’s also a lot of heavy steaming years included in that 16 year total. Who knows how the certification system actually works and the timing of it. And remember platinum designations don’t equate to actual 1 for 1 sales. But I’m guessing the album became 6x platinum eligible years ago based on that gap of time

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 3:08:38 GMT -5 cking33 said:

Dec 16, 2020 1:36:59 GMT -5 iHype. said:

How in the world did Merry Christmas go from 6x Platinum to 8x Platinum in one year? I'm wondering if that is a mistake with AIWFCIY's cert being mixed up on their site or something.

Even if it was at 6.9 million last year, there's no way it did another 1.1 million. I don't think it's done more than 500k the past year.

I’m guessing the answer to your question comes in another gap in time ... 2003 and 2019. That’s the time it took, 16 years, to go from 5x platinum to 6x platinum despite a steady presence every holiday season and AIWFCIY only rising in popularity each year. 16 years would require about 62,500 copies each year sold to get you 1,000,000 sold. I’m guessing it did more than that a lot of years? That’s also a lot of heavy steaming years included in that 16 year total. Who knows how the certification system actually works and the timing of it. And remember platinum designations don’t equate to actual 1 for 1 sales. But I’m guessing the album became 6x platinum eligible years ago based on that gap of time

Which is why I said even if was at 6.9 million last year when it got certified 6x Platinum, it ofcourse didn't do over 1 million the past year to then make it jump to 8x Platinum.

When it was certified in 2019, it would've made no sense to only certify it 6x Platinum if it actually was past 7 million. They have to pay every time they update certs, and the numbers are audited. So it would seem weird that they didn't certify it correctly then.

Billboard also had it at 6.63 million equivalent units last year, which lined up with the 2019 certification. But hey, RIAA certifications have always been fishy and confusing at times. If we tried to figure out many of them we'd never come up with a conclusion.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Congrats on Mariah for the return to #1! I don't see the big issue with the whole Taylor vs Mariah fiasco. Even if Taylor takes #1 this week, Mariah will return the week after, and as a fan of both it's a win win for me!

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2020 1:36:59 GMT -5 iHype. said:

How in the world did Merry Christmas go from 6x Platinum to 8x Platinum in one year? I'm wondering if that is a mistake with AIWFCIY's cert being mixed up on their site or something.

Even if it was at 6.9 million last year, there's no way it did another 1.1 million. I don't think it's done more than 500k the past year.

How would they get certs for singles and albums mixed up? Especially when the single in question got certified (and frankly should be certified even higher) so it's not like they did the album in place of it.

Anyway when Mariah has so many singles and albums that are likely behind in certs, I don't know why you're focusing on one you think is somehow over-certified.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Dec 16, 2020 0:58:46 GMT -5 back2blk said:

The way you guys discuss charts and certifications in here is academic!!

I'm over here talking about "I like what she did with Sleigh Ride".

LMAO.

😂😂😂

This reminds me of the way my non-lambs friends react when I talk about MC and her records.

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 8:35:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 16, 2020 1:36:59 GMT -5 iHype. said:

How in the world did Merry Christmas go from 6x Platinum to 8x Platinum in one year? I'm wondering if that is a mistake with AIWFCIY's cert being mixed up on their site or something.

Even if it was at 6.9 million last year, there's no way it did another 1.1 million. I don't think it's done more than 500k the past year.

How would they get certs for singles and albums mixed up? Especially when the single in question got certified (and frankly should be certified even higher) so it's not like they did the album in place of it.

Anyway when Mariah has so many singles and albums that are likely behind in certs, I don't know why you're focusing on one you think is somehow over-certified.

I meant as in maybe some technical blip on the site, since the single also got the same exact 7x & 8x update. I remember when The Weeknd’s Starboy (song) got certified 8x Platinum, but it was accidentally showing the album was 8x Platinum at first.

And what albums of hers are under certified? Memoirs may be eligible for Platinum now but I think that’s about it. All her other albums are up to date.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2020 11:04:33 GMT -5 iHype. said:

And what albums of hers are under certified? Memoirs may be eligible for Platinum now but I think that’s about it. All her other albums are up to date.

I think the albums of hers that could be due for new certs are Mariah Carey, #1s, and Rainbow.

Mariah Carey - It has been 9x platinum since 1999. This one is hard to know because it had a lot of pre-Soundscan sales. Its 1991+ sales are 4.9 million. You then add in the 1990 sales, record clubs, and streams.
#1s - Its Soundscan sales are over 3.8 million. It sold over 1 million through BMG. That's 4.8 million right there. I don't know its Columba House sales, but 6x platinum seems possible.
Rainbow - Its Soundscan sales are around 3 million (i.e. its certification). It then sold over 400k through BMG. Add in other club sales and now streams, and 4x platinum seems likely.
(Re: Rainbow I will throw in Whitney's MLIYL is 4x platinum despite selling less via Soundscan and less via BMG.)

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 11:26:44 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 16, 2020 11:04:33 GMT -5 iHype. said:

And what albums of hers are under certified? Memoirs may be eligible for Platinum now but I think that’s about it. All her other albums are up to date.

I think the albums of hers that could be due for new certs are Mariah Carey, #1s, and Rainbow.

Mariah Carey - It has been 9x platinum since 1999. This one is hard to know because it had a lot of pre-Soundscan sales. Its 1991+ sales are 4.9 million. You then add in the 1990 sales, record clubs, and streams.
#1s - Its Soundscan sales are over 3.8 million. It sold over 1 million through BMG. That's 4.8 million right there. I don't know its Columba House sales, but 6x platinum seems possible.
Rainbow - Its Soundscan sales are around 3 million (i.e. its certification). It then sold over 400k through BMG. Add in other club sales and now streams, and 4x platinum seems likely.
(Re: Rainbow I will throw in Whitney's MLIYL is 4x platinum despite selling less via Soundscan and less via BMG.)

Her Sony discography was recently updated (Vision of Love, Emotions, Fantasy, Heartbreaker, One Sweet Day etc got new certs) and her Greatest Hits + The Remixes albums were also updated so it'd be weird they skipped any other Sony era albums.

I know this isn't official or anything, but Chartmasters also estimates pure sales including club sales and his have him them all far off from a new cert except Music Box.

SPOILER: Click to show

Mariah Carey: US – 9,200,000
Emotions: US – 4,400,000
Music Box: US – 10,600,000 
Merry Christmas: US – 6,200,000
Daydream: US – 10,200,000
Butterfly: US – 5,250,000
#1‘s: US – 5,550,000 
Rainbow: US – 3,500,000

When you add in the streams/track sales of songs, Music Box is probably edging towards 11x Platinum. However it is such a weak recurrent album probably.


He also did an article analyzing her club sales that is pretty strongly detailed (pages 5-14):
chartmasters.org/2016/10/understanding-music-clubs-part-2/5/

Rainbow was not available at Columbia House according to his research, meaning it likely isn't near 4x Platinum.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2020 11:50:37 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Dec 16, 2020 11:26:44 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I think the albums of hers that could be due for new certs are Mariah Carey, #1s, and Rainbow.

Mariah Carey - It has been 9x platinum since 1999. This one is hard to know because it had a lot of pre-Soundscan sales. Its 1991+ sales are 4.9 million. You then add in the 1990 sales, record clubs, and streams.
#1s - Its Soundscan sales are over 3.8 million. It sold over 1 million through BMG. That's 4.8 million right there. I don't know its Columba House sales, but 6x platinum seems possible.
Rainbow - Its Soundscan sales are around 3 million (i.e. its certification). It then sold over 400k through BMG. Add in other club sales and now streams, and 4x platinum seems likely.
(Re: Rainbow I will throw in Whitney's MLIYL is 4x platinum despite selling less via Soundscan and less via BMG.)

Her Sony discography was recently updated (Vision of Love, Emotions, Fantasy, Heartbreaker, One Sweet Day etc got new certs) and her Greatest Hits + The Remixes albums were also recently updated so it'd be weird they skipped any more Sony era albums.

Well "I'll Be There" has literally sold enough to be Gold (i.e. without streaming) and wasn't certified, so they clearly didn't certify everything.

I know this isn't official or anything, but Chartmasters also estimates pure sales including club sales and his have him them all far off from a new cert except Music Box.

That list aligns with my post, except it doesn't include #1s.

Mariah Carey: US – 9,200,000

They are estimating for the debut there, which is all we can do since as I mentioned Soundscan didn't exist in 1990 or early 1991. Its Soundscan total is 4.9 million, which I said doesn't include sales from 1990 and maybe not early 1991. The debut spent over 20 weeks in the top 10 in 1990 alone (including the entire holiday season), though, so its 1990 sales total would be pretty strong. I'd say its actual sales total not including record clubs should be on par with Daydream and Music Box.
(The debut first entered the top 10 of the Billboard 200 the chart dated August 4, 1990, which was its 6th week on the chart. It was top 5 throughout the December charts and the chart dated January 5, 1991, which was its 28th week on the chart but reflecting sales in December of 1990. That's 23 weeks in the top 10 right there, including top 5 the entire holiday season.)

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 12:04:46 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 16, 2020 11:50:37 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Her Sony discography was recently updated (Vision of Love, Emotions, Fantasy, Heartbreaker, One Sweet Day etc got new certs) and her Greatest Hits + The Remixes albums were also recently updated so it'd be weird they skipped any more Sony era albums.

Well "I'll Be There" has literally sold enough to be Gold (i.e. without streaming) and wasn't certified, so they clearly didn't certify everything.

I know this isn't official or anything, but Chartmasters also estimates pure sales including club sales and his have him them all far off from a new cert except Music Box.

That list aligns with my post, except it doesn't include #1s.

Mariah Carey: US – 9,200,000

They are estimating for the debut there, which is all we can do since as I mentioned Soundscan didn't exist in 1990 or early 1991. Its Soundscan total is 4.9 million, which I said doesn't include sales from 1990 and maybe not early 1991. The debut spent over 20 weeks in the top 10 in 1990 alone (including the entire holiday season), though, so its 1990 sales total would be pretty strong. I'd say its actual sales total not including record clubs should be on par with Daydream and Music Box.
(The debut first entered the top 10 of the Billboard 200 the chart dated August 4, 1990, which was its 6th week on the chart. It was top 5 throughout the December charts and the chart dated January 5, 1991, which was its 28th week on the chart but reflecting sales in December of 1990. That's 23 weeks in the top 10 right there, including top 5 the entire holiday season.)

They have #1's at 5.55 million including all club sales.


He did a good estimation on Club Sales, and individually looked at her studio albums.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Debut album, Club Sales analysis}While studying the Eagles, we checked known information at the moment of their certifications. The main trap was non-date specific awards that were reflecting sales possibly up close from the next level. With the Without You singer, the trap is different. Unlike the Eagles albums, those from Mariah Carey were contemporary albums, released not that long before being certified. Thus, we need to take care about shipped copies that are still sitting on retailers shelves. Retailers standard was to stock roughly three months of sales, so estimations are based on weekly sales times 13. Below list will display not only Soundscan sales up to their date but also estimated remaining shipment in order to gauge non-Soundscan units shifted.

Mariah Carey
Album – Certification – Date – Soundscan – Unsold units (shipments) – Gap
Mariah Carey – 3xP – 01/08/1991 – 2,800,000* – 600,000 – 0
Mariah Carey – 6xP – 09/13/1991 – 5,750,000 – 250,000 – 0
Mariah Carey – 8xP – 09/27/1994 – 6,900,000 – 50,000 – 1,250,000
Mariah Carey – 9xP – 12/15/1999 – 7,550,000 – Irrelevant – 1,450,000

*estimated due to the lack of Soundscan in 1990

The good thing with Mariah Carey is that during the 90s she was receiving RIAA awards every quarter so we know they were almost all date-specific. There is still exceptions. In fact, the 3rd Platinum award was likely easily over the mark when awarded due to the Christmas rush shipments. We notice basically no gap between scanned sales and certification climbs before the rules change that made all Club sales eligible from January 1st 1994. The 8xP award was precisely due to Sony Music doing their first Clubs audit for catalog albums in late September 1994 – Michael Jackson albums Thriller, Bad and Dangerous got certified two days later while Mariah Carey own Emotions was certified at the same date. This is the reason why I’m setting the album on 8,2 million instead of 8 million by September 1994 when considering all the data.

Since its last certification, the album moved over 100,000 units plus a few Club sales.

chartmasters.org/2016/10/understanding-music-clubs-part-2/7/


He pointed out with large research that her 90s certs tended to be updated quarterly along with some other stuff, and noted why he came to the conclusion it's more than likely just pass 9 million.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2020 12:11:53 GMT -5 iHype. said:

They have #1's at 5.55 million including all club sales.

And that total is getting near 6x platinum. #1s potentially gets the streams of the "Fantasy" remix, "When You Believe," "I Still Believe," "Sweetheart," and/or "Whenever You Call" duet as well. Not that most of those are killing it in streaming, but just saying 6x platinum isn't out of the question.

And I go back to singles as well. "I'll Be There" has sold more than enough to be Gold. I have streaming data for her 90s #1s, and with sales and streaming "Always Be My Baby" and "Honey" are overdue for new certs. "Fantasy" could be close, too. So while her team has done well, they haven't certified everything that can be certified.

[cking33]

Dec 16, 2020 15:35:16 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 16, 2020 12:11:53 GMT -5 iHype. said:

They have #1's at 5.55 million including all club sales.

And that total is getting near 6x platinum. #1s potentially gets the streams of the "Fantasy" remix, "When You Believe," "I Still Believe," "Sweetheart," and/or "Whenever You Call" duet as well. Not that most of those are killing it in streaming, but just saying 6x platinum isn't out of the question.

And I go back to singles as well. "I'll Be There" has sold more than enough to be Gold. I have streaming data for her 90s #1s, and with sales and streaming "Always Be My Baby" and "Honey" are overdue for new certs. "Fantasy" could be close, too. So while her team has done well, they haven't certified everything that can be certified.

What are ABMB and Honey at? Even with the recertifications last year some of those are due again?

[itiswhatitis]

I'm truly grateful to be a lamb and proud of Mariah. All she has achieved in the last 3 years alone amidst public scrutiny is a testament of her perseverance and talent. You can't write off talent!

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2020 17:09:35 GMT -5 cking33 said:

Dec 16, 2020 15:35:16 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

And that total is getting near 6x platinum. #1s potentially gets the streams of the "Fantasy" remix, "When You Believe," "I Still Believe," "Sweetheart," and/or "Whenever You Call" duet as well. Not that most of those are killing it in streaming, but just saying 6x platinum isn't out of the question.

And I go back to singles as well. "I'll Be There" has sold more than enough to be Gold. I have streaming data for her 90s #1s, and with sales and streaming "Always Be My Baby" and "Honey" are overdue for new certs. "Fantasy" could be close, too. So while her team has done well, they haven't certified everything that can be certified.

What are ABMB and Honey at? Even with the recertifications last year some of those are due again?

Well "ABMB" could have been at 3.9 million last year and thus not yet to 4 million, but then quickly passed it (as an example). Sony clearly looked into a lot of her songs at once, so they would have been at various levels of closeness. Plus its streams have really increased in 2020.

Anyway "ABMB" had 1.254 in physical sales and then 890,000 downloads as of early 2014. That puts it at 2,144,000 copies sold. It then had 287,000,000 U.S. streams as of earlier this year. That translates to over 1.9 million in sales. Added to the physical sales that is 4.044 million total. Having said that I know the RIAA has some specifications related to which streams count, but considering 7 years of downloads are missing from my numbers (and the past few months of streams) I'd think "ABMB" is still over 4 million.

As for "Honey" its physical sales total is 1.276 million sold. The last downloads total I have for it is from early 2008, which was nearly 83,000 (so 1.36 million in sales). Its U.S. streams total earlier this year was 85,454,000, which converts to about 570k sold. That puts its sales total at 1.93 million total. That's with over 12 years of downloads missing, though, and you'd think it sold enough in that time to go past 2 million.

[Deleted]

[Nick]

^Omg. I have a Cindy Mizelle CD in my house somewhere, my ex had one of her albums.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

I fully believe that "AIWFCIY" will be Mariah's signature song (if it isn't already). How many weeks has it accumulated at #1 so far? 4? It is just gonna keep racking them up for years to come.

I am hoping eventually her rendition of "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)" and "Oh Santa" become standards as well.

[jenglisbe]

http://instagram.com/p/CI3IZ77BukX

She's playing it in her IG story, too.

[🌺T.A.T.I🌺]

Snowing in NY.

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2020 20:46:53 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

I fully believe that "AIWFCIY" will be Mariah's signature song (if it isn't already). How many weeks has it accumulated at #1 so far? 4? It is just gonna keep racking them up for years to come.

Wow a modern day Nostradamus!!