Billboard Hot 100 : 08/16/2014

[Linnethia Monique]

Both Iggy and Ariana have 3 songs in the Top 20 at the same time. Damn!

[Au$tin]

Aug 1, 2014 10:25:12 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

This will be an interesting week with "Bang Bang" and "Chasing the Sun."

"Bang Bang" shot quickly to #1 on iTunes and brought Jason down all the way to ~35%. Of course, the number two (now Meghan Trainor) has rebounded to ~80%, but "Bang Bang" should still bring in a solid ~250k debut. Streaming wise, it has Ariana Grande in it, so its streaming is likely to be very high for just an audio video. It has roughly 4.5 million views on YouTube right now. I'm assuming it's already available on Spotify as well. Not incredibly high streaming, but decent, and of course #1 digitally. Its airplay will be great for its first week as well (already #25 on pop!). A top 10 debut seems guaranteed, probably around #7.

"Chasing the Sun" shot quickly to the upper 20s on iTunes, though it has since fallen below the top 100. should pull in ~35k, though. Its streaming is what's interesting to me for the Hot 100. Its official video is near 9 million views with an extra 200k from its audio video. Now, I figured Hilary would have good streaming numbers on her videos if she were to ever come back, but I'm not sure the percentage of US viewers. She kind of falls into that category of artists that are likely to get huge streaming numbers outside the US. (Brazil loves their low stardom popstars!) Low airplay, though, will hurt this. I'm guessing just below the top 50.

#6 and #79. Not bad!

Only one position higher than what I thought for "Bang Bang" and about 20/25 positions lower than what I thought for "Chasing the Sun." (Must've had more views from outside the US than I initially thought.)

[Deleted]

I hope TIHWD will become the third of her last four singles to flop. Those two were mediocre for me, yet I think they're much better than TIHWD. TIHWD is just disappointing for me. 

[KeepDeanWeird]

Aug 6, 2014 19:55:17 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I hope TIHWD will become the third of her last four singles to flop. Those two were mediocre for me, yet I think they're much better than TIHWD. TIHWD is just disappointing for me. 

Of course, what Paul neglects to mention is that TIHWD charted early based on three days of streaming and some sales - it's not even being sent to radio until next week. If anything, it's getting a jump. Honestly, I have no clue or investment in how it does, but that's kind of a low shot by Grein.

[kanimal]

Aug 6, 2014 22:42:02 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Aug 6, 2014 19:55:17 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I hope TIHWD will become the third of her last four singles to flop. Those two were mediocre for me, yet I think they're much better than TIHWD. TIHWD is just disappointing for me. 

Of course, what Paul neglects to mention is that TIHWD charted early based on three days of streaming and some sales - it's not even being sent to radio until next week. If anything, it's getting a jump. Honestly, I have no clue or investment in how it does, but that's kind of a low shot by Grein.

It's honestly an embarrassing piece of analysis.  Not saying TIHWD won't end up performing as a disappointment in the long run, but referring to a debut number without its very particular context is so, so weak.

I appreciate that the guy's blog is a great source of early Billboard information, but the more I read his "analysis," the more I question whether he has the beginnings of a clue.

[velaxti]

Rude, Happy, All Of Me all debuted lower than Katy's song and went on to be #1 hits. And Fancy debuted at #88 lol.

[rimetm]

I dunno, I still think this analysis is relatively valid. "Roar" is the closest we have to this scenario: a premature debut due to a few days before cutoff. However, where that song only had a lyric video and could build rapidly due to hype as a premiere single of "Prism", this already has its music video (i.e. Streaming is not going to be a big aid next week) and is following up on "Birthday" which is looking to tumble off the charts next week.

[Enigma.]

I think without severe boost in streaming, TIHWD will drop out next week but return the week after.

[kanimal]

Aug 7, 2014 6:03:40 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I dunno, I still think this analysis is relatively valid. "Roar" is the closest we have to this scenario: a premature debut due to a few days before cutoff. However, where that song only had a lyric video and could build rapidly due to hype as a premiere single of "Prism", this already has its music video (i.e. Streaming is not going to be a big aid next week) and is following up on "Birthday" which is looking to tumble off the charts next week.

Roar is not the closest we have to this scenario - it was a lead single from the follow-up to a monster, hitmaking album that was going to command far more excitement in every possible regard.

This is a 5th single that had not really had any radio support when this week's chart was calculated.  It also has no current momentum on iTunes and will have to grow that as people become more familiar with the song.

Grein was correct to cite "Last Friday Night" as the closest to an apples-to-apples scenario in that it was a fifth single, and as he notes, that only re-entered the chart in the 60s (I'm not sure what the circumstances were behind its re-entry).  That it "re-entered," however, suggests it had more early sales volume than "This is How We Do" did, so that, too indicates this is not a perfect comparison.

Again, you make a very good point regarding WHY this isn't necessarily a lock to make an impressive run on the Hot 100 (that a well-reviewed Katy Perry video couldn't take a song half as high as the new Weird Al video is something worth mentioning), but that's already more analysis than Grein offered.  And that's also unrelated to the point he was making.

He's basically just treating all debuts as equal - and even going as far as to compare the song to brand NEW singles from a superstar collaboration (which also had monstrous airplay), a buzzworthy brand new duo that has received more press than any comparable new act has in years and a COMEBACK single from a beloved teen heartthrob.  "Debut" means virtually nothing analytical within the context of a follow-up album single.  It is simply a statement of fact.

To me, if you feel forced to criticize a "debut" this week, you
criticize either the new Maroon 5 (for not charting as high as the better 5SOS
instant grats did) or the new Hilary Duff song, which received a
promotional push as a comeback single, debuted on iTunes this week AND
debuted a buzzworthy video.

[Deleted]

Well over here in Canada this is a good week as Am I Wrong moves up to #1 with M5 also moving up and landing their 5th(?) top 2 in Canada and Stay with Me falls to #3. Plus Dark Horse drops out of the chart (Americans need to get the fuck over that song too). Loving this week's Canadian Hot 100 :)

[Kris]

^ and Fancy moves out of the top 10!

Glad to see Hedley will reach 30 weeks at least with Crazy For You, not close to the 41 weeks Kiss You Inside Out had though. 

Off topic: But I went to look for KYIO's numbers and I found this: "I Gotta Feeling" by The Black Eyed Peas sets the record for the longest stay on the chart (76 weeks). Which is impressive as Call Me Maybe I believe is 2nd at 74 weeks. 

[Deleted]

^ and Call Me Maybe came very close with 74 weeks. Radioactive was on for 71 weeks. Titanium was on for 66 weeks. Viva La Vida was on for 65 weeks. Rolling in the Deep was on for 64 weeks. Party Rock Anthem was on for 63 weeks. Apologize and Counting Stars were on for 61 each (CS will probably have more). That's all I know of 60+ weeks.
I Gotta Feeling also holds the record for the most weeks at #1 (16) and quite possibly the most weeks in the top 10 (27)!

[Au$tin]

Aug 7, 2014 8:44:32 GMT -5 kanimal said:

Grein was correct to cite "Last Friday Night" as the closest to an apples-to-apples scenario in that it was a fifth single, and as he notes, that only re-entered the chart in the 60s (I'm not sure what the circumstances were behind its re-entry).  That it "re-entered," however, suggests it had more early sales volume than "This is How We Do" did, so that, too indicates this is not a perfect comparison.

Not to mention streaming wasn't even relevant to the chart back then.

[imbondz]

Aug 8, 2014 3:21:36 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Plus Dark Horse drops out of the chart (Americans need to get the f**k over that song too). Loving this week's Canadian Hot 100 :)

Lol

[imbondz]

I still prefer Boom Boom Pow over I Gotta Feeling. If IGF comes on instant change the channel, never really liked it

[markb]

Aug 8, 2014 3:21:36 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Well over here in Canada this is a good week as Am I Wrong moves up to #1 with M5 also moving up and landing their 5th(?) top 2 in Canada and Stay with Me falls to #3. Plus Dark Horse drops out of the chart (Americans need to get the f**k over that song too). Loving this week's Canadian Hot 100 :)

Wtf is your problem with dark horse! You are really annoying! Get over it.. I don't like Happy longevity either but I'm not writing 'bout it! Jeeez

[Kris]

I don't like either.

Omg hate me.

[Au$tin]

I love "Dark Horse," and I find "Happy" annoying. I absolutely do not care which one gets the top spot on the year-end chart. I would prefer "Dark Horse" to be there over "Happy," but in the end, it really doesn't matter. I also don't care if anyone here has a different opinion on the songs than I do. We're human, we're allowed to like different things, just as long as you aren't voicing your opinion in a thread constantly where opinions aren't asked for. What I don't like, though, is reading the same "OMG Dark Horse needs to fall so Happy can get #1 on the year end chart!!!!" comment every single week.

[Deleted]

Aug 8, 2014 15:04:34 GMT -5 markb said:

Aug 8, 2014 3:21:36 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Well over here in Canada this is a good week as Am I Wrong moves up to #1 with M5 also moving up and landing their 5th(?) top 2 in Canada and Stay with Me falls to #3. Plus Dark Horse drops out of the chart (Americans need to get the f**k over that song too). Loving this week's Canadian Hot 100 :)

Wtf is your problem with dark horse! You are really annoying! Get over it.. I don't like Happy longevity either but I'm not writing 'bout it! Jeeez

I don't have a problem with Dark Horse. It used to be my favorite song. I'm just noting that after 43 weeks the song fell off the Canadian chart and that I am glad about it since I feel like the song is way past its expiration date. Just stating a fact (that it fell off) and expressing how I feel about that fact. I am already confident enough that Happy will take the year-end #1 spot now so there has been no need for me to mention it anymore. And Dark Horse is not even in the top 50 on iTunes for quite some time now so clearly people are over that song which is why it frustrates me that the radio chooses to still play it so damn much. And the reason why you don't write about it is because you never write anything. I've seen you post maybe 4 or 5 times in total in the 8 months that I've been on this board. And it's really sad that the one time you write something it's to bash me just because of my opinion on a certain song that it is staying way past its welcome.

Aug 8, 2014 15:21:42 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I love "Dark Horse," and I find "Happy" annoying. I absolutely do not care which one gets the top spot on the year-end chart. I would prefer "Dark Horse" to be there over "Happy," but in the end, it really doesn't matter. I also don't care if anyone here has a different opinion on the songs than I do. We're human, we're allowed to like different things, just as long as you aren't voicing your opinion in a thread constantly where opinions aren't asked for. What I don't like, though, is reading the same "OMG Dark Horse needs to fall so Happy can get #1 on the year end chart!!!!" comment every single week.

Oh yeah yet when Mitch constantly complains like a f**king nuisance in the other thread where opinions are supposedly unwelcome or "aren't asked for" either about how he hates Fancy and thinks it is the worst number one on the chart ever you don't say s**t and think it's totally ok. Yeah that seems fair. Nice double standards you have. I really have a passionate hatred for people like that.
and for the record, I wanted DH to fall not just because of the year-end chart, but mostly because I am simply over that song for the past 3 months now (and even 3 months ago was a bit late for it).

[Fancy]

yawn. this again.

in other news, really happy with black widow's performance so far. the video should send it skyrocketing. :)

[lyhom]

The fact that the pissing match about this years year-end chart's number one is still f**king going:



Anyways, I'm liking a lot of the stuff in the bottom half of the top 20 recently. Stuff like "Rather Be", "Black Widow", "Boom Clap", and "Bailando" I freaking love.

[josh]

the fact that M1tchD is still being brought up.

[mluv]

The difference with TIHWD and Katy Perry's other songs is this one is actually bad. I just can't even bring myself to listen to the whole thing. They'd have to play it on that Alberta, Canada radio station that's editing all songs played on their radio stations to less than 2 minutes. Then it might do well.

And I understand the irritation with Katy's songs on the radio because it does feel like she gets played whether the public wants it or not. Her songs are jammed down our throats. Birthday, which really wasn't a terrible song, was not selling that well and still we get months of airplay out of it. This kind of thing annoys a lot of people especially as radio doesn't do the same thing for a lot of other artists not named Katy Perry. I can see why just because of that, there would be some who'd be just over her and would celebrate hearing one of her songs less.

[KeepDeanWeird]

I wish this thread focused on THIS WEEK'S building chart versus discussions about hits from 2009 and other countries. :) Anyway, I'm wondering if Enrique will get another push, so that he gets back in the Top 10. It really won't take much - another live performance should do it. Airplay is going to start to level because gains at Pop/HAC will be offset as it declines in Latin markets.

[Deleted]

Aug 8, 2014 16:36:28 GMT -5 mluv said:

The difference with TIHWD and Katy Perry's other songs is this one is actually bad. I just can't even bring myself to listen to the whole thing. They'd have to play it on that Alberta, Canada radio station that's editing all songs played on their radio stations to less than 2 minutes. Then it might do well.

And I understand the irritation with Katy's songs on the radio because it does feel like she gets played whether the public wants it or not. Her songs are jammed down our throats. Birthday, which really wasn't a terrible song, was not selling that well and still we get months of airplay out of it. This kind of thing annoys a lot of people especially as radio doesn't do the same thing for a lot of other artists not named Katy Perry. I can see why just because of that, there would be some who'd be just over her and would celebrate hearing one of her songs less.

I agree about TIHWD it's gotta me her worst song IMHO (and I really hated CG when it was popular whilst due to its massive popularity I guess I kinda brought myself to dance to it here and there lol) but I am pretty sure it won't peak high - maybe even lower than Birthday did (I sure hope so!)
and yeah exactly it just doesn't make sense for a song to still be almost in the top 10 on radio long after it fell out of the top 50 on iTunes and isn't even steamed all that much anymore now that the video/song isn't fresh. I get that Adult Contemporary takes a long time to get songs to their peak on the format so it is still steady on there but Counting Stars is also very high on there yet it's not in the top 20 on radio anymore even though to me and probably a number of other people CS still was (and in my case still is today) going strong so clearly pop, rhythmic, and HAC formats are playing it way too much as a recurrent, and that is what is frustrating me, regardless of the year-end chart. The other people on here don't seem to be able to comprehend that last part. -__-

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Aug 8, 2014 15:04:34 GMT -5 markb said:

Aug 8, 2014 3:21:36 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Well over here in Canada this is a good week as Am I Wrong moves up to #1 with M5 also moving up and landing their 5th(?) top 2 in Canada and Stay with Me falls to #3. Plus Dark Horse drops out of the chart (Americans need to get the f**k over that song too). Loving this week's Canadian Hot 100 :)

Wtf is your problem with dark horse! You are really annoying! Get over it.. I don't like Happy longevity either but I'm not writing 'bout it! Jeeez

When one Mark doesn't like DH, another Mark comes in and defends it lol

[Deleted]

Aug 8, 2014 17:01:43 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

Aug 8, 2014 15:04:34 GMT -5 markb said:

Wtf is your problem with dark horse! You are really annoying! Get over it.. I don't like Happy longevity either but I'm not writing 'bout it! Jeeez

When one Mark doesn't like DH, another Mark comes in and defends it lol

Except I never said I didn't like it. Dunno where all these people are getting the idea from. 

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Aug 8, 2014 17:02:55 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Aug 8, 2014 17:01:43 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

When one Mark doesn't like DH, another Mark comes in and defends it lol

Except I never said I didn't like it. Dunno where all these people are getting the idea from. 

Yeah I know you liked it at some point in time, just wanted to make a little joke

[Fancy]

Aug 8, 2014 17:02:55 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Aug 8, 2014 17:01:43 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

When one Mark doesn't like DH, another Mark comes in and defends it lol

Dunno where all these people are getting the idea from. 

[imbondz]

I definitely don't like dark horse!


Edit...this would have been better if you all knew my name is Mark.