Billboard Hot 100: 02/28/2015 - "Uptown Funk!" (7 wks #1)

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2015 10:50:34 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

How are the premiere views for "Style" versus "Blank Space?"

Seemingly very poor in comparison. 

[KeepDeanWeird]

I don't think there is anything on the horizon that will lift Style into contention. The Victoria's Secret performance in early December kind of got it rolling in sales early. I'm pretty sure Taylor and label are happy that the 3rd single is being well received by radio and that 1989's sales are steady.

Same for FFS - there's nothing promotion wise that would overcome that gap and that's alright - Rihanna got her point across. The second single will be the focus before the album release.

Not everything has to hit #1 to be a success or to evade 'disappointing' performance, etc.

[funkpunkandroll]

TOL and UF are not giving in at all. TOL had a dark green update an hour ago, UF moved up 3%, dark green but TOL still had a green update too... things are gonna get tighter. Also both UF's and TOL's second versions are moving up on the chart...

[badrobot]

Feb 14, 2015 10:15:47 GMT -5 TylerG11 said:

To be honest as much as I dislike Taylor Swift, Shake it Off and Blank Space were tolerable. I could actually listen to them without turning the radio.

Style on the other hand is awful. I don't see it getting #1. Maybe a peak of 3, but that's it.

Exact opposite. Shake It Off was one of the most irritating songs in recent memory. Blank Space was meh. Style is actually a good song.

[funkpunkandroll]

Style has stayed put on #7 iTunes U.S.

[brady47]

Hot 100 flashback (8 years ago): Nelly Furtado's "Say It Right" ends the 10-week reign of Beyonce's "Irreplaceable" at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with a 2-1 climb. It's Furtado's second No. 1 from her album "Loose," following "Promiscuous".

3 2 1 14 Say It Right (Nelly Furtado)
1 1 2 17 Irreplaceable (Beyonce)
6 5 3 9 The Sweet Escape (Gwen Stefani f. Akon)

Such an amazing song that was different than anything else released, and the fact that it was powerful enough to dethrone Irreplaceable was great.
Loose was such a flawless and successful era, so sad it was her peak :(

[jayhawk1117]

Since it looks like ed isn't getting number one, does this not confirm UF getting 10 weeks

[jayhawk1117]

Feb 14, 2015 10:50:34 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

How are the premiere views for "Style" versus "Blank Space?"

Well blank space had close to 20 million and style is struggling to pull in 10 million

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2015 13:55:33 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Since it looks like ed isn't getting number one, does this not confirm UF getting 10 weeks

Nah, not necessarily. It is possible for Style or FourFiveSeconds to somehow pull themselves up. Also Sugar seems to be fast on the rise but the band doesn't seem to have been having any luck with getting to #1 in the last couple years so I'm not too sure about that ones either. It is possible for UF to get 10 weeks but I wouldn't really say it's "confirmed".

[icefire9]

Poor Love Me Like You Do getting completely ignored.

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2015 14:07:57 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

Poor Love Me Like You Do getting completely ignored.

Oops. Yeah that one also has as good a chance as any I guess. I do hope she can get her revenge for "Lights" getting blocked in 2012 :(

[johonmilla]

Uptown Funk regained #1 on itunes US, beating Thinking Out despite it being Valentine's day, so there goes any chance of TOL getting a boost. (not that i'm complaining).

Next #1 IMO will be FFS but after a couple more weeks for UF.

On LLLYD, I love the song but kinda mad that it is blocking my favorite song on the chart, Outisde.

[funkpunkandroll]

I doubt any current song could top it tbh... I don't see it in the cards for FourFiveSeconds, Sugar or Style... the lead UF has on iTunes remains marginal though.

The first version is currently 1.0000 but it's a light green update
TOL is 0.9977.

The second UF version (which I presume is the album version) is 0.1318 though. I wonder if it got an extra push or is it that in the weekends, UF has a more powerful download effect than the other songs?

[Dylan :)]

#4 on iTunes, #39 on radio and #6 on Spotify. I say LMLYD has a higher chance of #1 than Style and FFS.. (okay, maybe not the latter but)

[Deleted]

I'm not even complaining lol well aside from TOL not getting to #1. I'd love for Uptown Funk to get 10 weeks at #1 and be Bruno's biggest song to date. Hell I'd rather UF be #1 for 25 weeks than for that boring Rihanna song to be #1.

Feb 14, 2015 16:09:24 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

#4 on iTunes, #39 on radio and #6 on Spotify. I say LMLYD has a higher chance of #1 than Style and FFS.. (okay, maybe not the latter but)

Excuse me? That latter not only has less chance than Style, it also has less chance than Sugar, LMLYD, Uptown Funk AND Thinking Out Loud to be #1 in the coming weeks. It's down to less than two-thirds of the #1 song on iTunes (when both versions are combined of songs) and only got up that high in the first place because of the Grammys. I doubt it will even be as big as Stay.

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase (02/14/15)

1. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 229.459 (+ 0.619)
2. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 183.414 (+ 1.084)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 168.284 (- 1.015)
4. HOZIER - Take Me To Church: 152.072 (- 1.894)
5. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Lips Are Movin: 125.030 (- 0.153)
6. SAM SMITH – I’m Not The Only One: 117.123 (- 2.517)
7. NICK JONAS - Jealous: 112.860 (- 2.126)
8. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 99.956 (+ 3.663)
9. PITBULL - Time Of Our Lives f/Ne-Yo: 96.899 (+ 0.809)
10. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 93.423 (+ 2.806) ▲
11. USHER - I Don't Mind f/Juicy J: 92.016 (+ 0.080) ▼
12. LILLYWOOD & ROBIN SCHULZ - Prayer In C: 73.418 (+ 0.614) ▲
13. NE-YO - She Knows f/Juicy J: 73.232 (+ 0.077) ▼
14. ELLA HENDERSON - Ghost: 71.085 (- 0.085) ▲
15. ARIANA GRANDE & THE WEEKND - Love Me Harder: 69.925 (- 2.265) ▼
16. RIHANNA/KANYE WEST/P MCCARTNEY - FourFiveSeconds: 68.922 (+ 1.512) ▲
17. FALL OUT BOY – Centuries: 67.634 (+ 0.346) ▲
18. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Sun Daze: 66.509 (+ 0.591) ▲
19. LUKE BRYAN - I See You: 66.392 (- 1.270) ▼
20. THOMAS RHETT - Make Me Wanna: 65.383 (+ 0.284)


BLAKE SHELTON – Lonely Tonight f/ Ashley Monroe: 62.406 (+ 0.277)
RANDY HOUSER - Like A Cowboy: 58.921 (+ 0.228)
JASON ALDEAN - Just Gettin' Started: 58.778 (- 0.220)
BEYONCE - 7/11: 54.618 (- 0.172)
NICKI MINAJ - Only f/Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown: 54.379 (+ 0.179)
VANCE JOY - Riptide: 53.916 (+ 0.254)
NICKI MINAJ - Truffle Butter f/Drake...: 53.621 (+ 1.935)
ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 47.812 (+ 2.596)
KELLY CLARKSON - Heartbeat Song: 45.216 (+ 0.155)
CALVIN HARRIS - Outside f/Ellie Goulding: 43.393 (+ 1.461)
CHRIS BROWN & TYGA - Ayo: 40.872 (+ 0.516)
ZAC BROWN BAND - Homegrown: 39.980 (+ 0.971)
NATALIE LA ROSE - Somebody f/Jeremih: 38.792 (+ 0.948)
J. COLE - Apparently: 35.199 (+ 0.070)
IMAGINE DRAGONS - I Bet My Life: 32.178 (+ 0.066)
SAM HUNT – Take Your Time: 30.789 (+ 0.822)
ONE DIRECTION - Night Changes: 29.006 (+ 0.539)
DRAKE - How About Now: 23.079 (+ 0.266)
MIRANDA LAMBERT - Little Red Wagon: 20.501 (+ 0.479)
NICK JONAS - Chains: 19.997 (+ 1.030)
FLO RIDA – GDFR f/ Sage The Gemini: 19.139 (+ 0.839)
NICKI MINAJ – Feeling Myself f/Beyoncé: 17.146 (- 0.039)
THE WEEKND - Earned It: 16.728 (+ 0.702)
TOVE LO - Talking Body: 14.672 (+ 0.259)
GEORGE EZRA - Budapest: 13.253 (+ 0.184)
ARIANA GRANDE – One Last Time: 12.746 (+ 1.679)
KANYE WEST - Only One f/Paul McCartney: 9.744 (+ 0.318)
SAM SMITH – Lay Me Down: 7.444 (+ 0.902)
CIARA - I Bet: 6.629 (+ 0.258)
JESSIE J – Masterpiece: 6.185 (+ 0.027)
ECHOSMITH - Bright: 4.180 (+ 0.088)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Little Toy Guns: 2.741 (+ 0.210)
IGGY AZALEA – Trouble f/Jennifer Hudson: 2.471 (+ 0.082)
SIA – Elastic Heart: 2.130 (+ 0.060)
FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 1.820 (+ 0.158)
FLORENCE + THE MACHINE - What Kind Of Man: 1.674 (+ 0.605)
MADONNA – Living For Love: 0.698 (+ 0.053)
CHARLI XCX - Doing It: 0.661 (- 0.038)

[funkpunkandroll]

TOL is FIGHTING HARD right now! LMAO!!! I'm not sure if UF will outsell it but this will go down the line, I think... :)

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Take Me To Church will get a little streaming boost this week thanks to that viral video if the guy dancing that David LaChappelle directed. Nothing major but it should hold it up a little.

[Future Captain]

I think the public reception to 45S is kinda poor, despite the sales. I mean, it got one of the biggest spins gain today (I believe around 400), but yet it barely gained 1,5M in audience. I guess it won't even reach top 3 in Pop. If Rihanna is going for a less dance style, then she could just release Piano ballads like Stay, not 45S.

[icefire9]

Feb 14, 2015 23:14:37 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

I think the public reception to 45S is kinda poor, despite the sales. I mean, it got one of the biggest spins gain today (I believe around 400), but yet it barely gained 1,5M in audience. I guess it won't even reach top 3 in Pop. If Rihanna is going for a less dance style, then she could just release Piano ballads like Stay, not 45S.

Audience gain vs. spin gain doesn't tell us anything about public reception, it just means that large market stations aren't increasing their rotation of that song. Sales, streaming, and callout scores are the best measure of public reception.

[icefire9]

Feb 14, 2015 17:03:34 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I'm not even complaining lol well aside from TOL not getting to #1. I'd love for Uptown Funk to get 10 weeks at #1 and be Bruno's biggest song to date. Hell I'd rather UF be #1 for 25 weeks than for that boring Rihanna song to be #1.

Feb 14, 2015 16:09:24 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

#4 on iTunes, #39 on radio and #6 on Spotify. I say LMLYD has a higher chance of #1 than Style and FFS.. (okay, maybe not the latter but)

Excuse me? That latter not only has less chance than Style, it also has less chance than Sugar, LMLYD, Uptown Funk AND Thinking Out Loud to be #1 in the coming weeks. It's down to less than two-thirds of the #1 song on iTunes (when both versions are combined of songs) and only got up that high in the first place because of the Grammys. I doubt it will even be as big as Stay.

In my opinion, the rankings of song's chances of going #1 goes something like this.

1.) Love Me Like You Do
2.) 45Seconds
3.) Sugar
4.) Style

Style has the highest airplay out of all of these yet it has the weakest sales. The video isn't getting enough views to propel it to #1 based on streaming power alone and it isn't really boosting sales either. Its lack of availability on Spotify will also hurt it.

45Seconds is also hurt by not being on certain streaming services, but at least its selling better. Even though its falling, its still the best selling song of these four (though LMLYD will pass it soon). I don't put to much stock in the hour to hour updates unless the trend is unambiguous. In the past 12 hours, its gotten 4 light red updates, 2 white updates, and a green update, nothing to write home about. Its falling for sure, but its not like its sinking like a rock.

Love Me Like You Do is the best positioned of these 4 songs to go #1 in my opinion. Despite having half of Style's and Sugar's airplay, its outselling both of them. Its also just started really picking up on radio, it just got its first 2M+ update. The one downfall this song might have is if sales and airplay peak too far apart, in which case it will probably play second/third fiddle to 45Seconds/Sugar but have a very strong chart run regardless.

[born]

I really wanted (and want) to see Style topping the chart, it was one of the songs on 1989 with great potential and appeal. But its way too early promo, caused early sales and now it doesn't have massive sales. Plus, personally I loved the music video but it's not suitable for the song.. And it's gaining slowly. I hope TOL will get that #1 position, I never liked UF tbh :/
Btw, this is my personal order (based on the chances of the songs to top the chart)
1)Sugar
2)Style
3)LMLYD
4)45S
Not sure about them though, I'm not good at that stuff.
So I think this week Style will enter the top 15, then with the video release(even these 3 days of release) will enter the top 6 at least..

[jayhawk1117]

In order of preference
1.LMLYD
2.Sugar
3.Style
4.45S
But in reality It's probably something like
1.Sugar-Its sales and airplay are on the steady increase, it really only has to hold out until UF and TOL leave the top 3.
2.LMLYD-Its sales are pretty massive and looks like her people FINALLY realized people actually wanna hear the song. It's problem may be the sales and airplay peak at different times.
3.45S-As awful as this song is, it's still Rihanna, it'll still be overplayed and have pretty good sales but the sales may have already peaked.
4.Style-Well this really underperformed, its sales as a single are pretty bad, because so many bought it on release and after the Victoria Secret performance (which was way too early) and 4 million people having the album doesn't help its case but at least it has great airplay...

[Deleted]

I really think that only Sugar and maybe (hopefully) Ellie have a decent chance of being #1. The others have very little IMO though I would really love to be proven wrong about Style! It just seems like Style was completely unaffected by the video in terms of sales and that even the video itself got a small fraction of the views that Blank Space or Shake It Off got in the same amount of time so it doesn't seem like the song will be going very high which is sad for me because I prefer Style to the overrated Blank Space (though I did like Blank Space a lot at one point).

Anyway, here's my prediction for 2/28:

1. Uptown Funk - sorry Ed :( (10-15% lead)
2. Thinking Out Loud
3. Take Me To Church
4. FourFiveSeconds
5. Sugar
6. Love Me Like You Do
7. Blank Space
8. Style
9. I'm Not The Only One
10. Lips Are Movin'

praying that Meghan can keep SWM from returning to the top 10

[funkpunkandroll]

Still intense battle between UF! and TOL:

#1. Mark Ronson/Bruno Mars - Uptown Funk! 1.0000
#2. Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud 0.9706

UF 2nd version is #33 at 0.1292
TOL 2nd version is #76 at 0.0720

Combined versions:
UF!: 1.1292
TOL: 1.0426

A 0.0866 difference right now b/w the two.

UF! keeps getting red updates too.

I still think for this week, sales would probably still be in Ed's favor if anything... Mark has peaked on radio, I think (it had a +0.451 update compared to TOL's +0.835 on Mediabase and who knows what Kworb will post on his radio updates?). The streaming would probably be the real factor? But it could be close on that too... maybe.

I still think TOL has another chance if it misses #1 next week... y'all are too pessimistic.

That said, the other songs (after TOL) besides probably Sugar and Love Me Like You Do don't really have a chance at #1 for now.

[Dylan :)]

What kind of peak do you guys think One Last Time will get?

[Deleted]

It's a shot in the dark but I'll say maybe #8-#10. The peaks for her seem to be getting lower and lower with each single from the album.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Do we think Drake will have enough points from 3 days of availability to make any debuts? Energy has been top 10 on iTunes and pretty much the whole album is top 50 on spotify.

[HolidayGuy]

^The best sellers will probably debut; probably not all tracks.

[Deleted]

Would be interesting if he can beat the record (set by himself?) for the most Hot 100 debuts lol. Surely he would have if the mixtape had dropped Sunday night.