Hot 100: 04/25/2015 - See You Again Uptown Funk!

[wavey.]

"Only" is still getting positive updates. What's going on?

[Dylan :)]

See You Again entered the Irish charts at #9. I've heard it a decent amount on the radio, and it'll most likely go to #1 here on Friday.

[Spidey]

Using Kworb's sales estimates and the latest airplay data, "Uptown Funk" would need to best "See You Again" by 4.3 million in streaming to be #1 on the Hot 100. (with the formula provided by Mark last week)

[jjose712]

It's curious, i remember listening on the radio that 1992, i remember well all the song but Jody Whately's one, i must look for it on youtube to refresh my mind

[ss8]

Apr 14, 2015 13:38:09 GMT -5 Spidey said:

Using Kworb's sales estimates and the latest airplay data, "Uptown Funk" would need to best "See You Again" by 4.3 million in streaming to be #1 on the Hot 100. (with the formula provided by Mark last week)

What are his sales estimates? Like I said, it's still just Tues. so how would he have any idea yet. I get that it's his job and 'estimates' are just that. So...if what youre saying is true and UF needs 4.3 million in streaming, that doesn't sound too high (or is it)? lol. So odd that UF keeps falling back during the week while SYA falls closer to the wkd. even though more people go out to see the movie lol. If UF can somehow get a sales boost by tomorrow (*discount like NOW RCA lol), it'll only make it that much easier for it to get back to #1.

I believe if UF doesn't do it this week, its over. I'm def. starting to hear SYA left/right now on the radio and feel if it holds UF off, we may be in store for another mega very long#1 stay. W/ no competition in sight (even w/ Taylors new song) just have a feeling SYA isnt leaving #1 anytime soon (*esp w/ airplay only first starting to explode). Looks like SYA is smashing even harder worldwide than UF. Its way more current and American sounding than UF so wouldn't be surprised if we're dealing with same drama in late July/early August lol. Song is too multi-format friendly and I think will get as many people interested/connected in it as UF (even though I personally dont care for SYA). Two VERY different songs but SYA has the I'll Always Love You punch/potential and is already reeks from being a karaoke staple. 

[crystalphnx]

Apr 14, 2015 14:19:24 GMT -5 ss8 said:

What are his sales estimates? Like I said, it's still just Tues. so how would he have any idea yet. I get that it's his job and 'estimates' are just that. So...if what youre saying is true and UF needs 4.3 million in streaming, that doesn't sound too high (or is it)? lol. So odd that UF keeps falling back during the week while SYA falls closer to the wkd. even though more people go out to see the movie lol. If UF can somehow get a sales boost by tomorrow (*discount like NOW RCA lol), it'll only make it that much easier for it to get back to #1.

Apr 13, 2015 11:12:33 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Sales estimates

1. See You Again 443,000
2. Uptown Funk 147,000
3. Sugar 140,000
4. Shut Up And Dance 136,000
5. GDFR 136,000
6. Earned It 115,000
7. Trap Queen 112,000
8. Chains 108,000
9. Love Me Like You Do 102,000
10. Thinking Out Loud 88,000
11. Want To Want Me 87,000
12. FourFiveSeconds 81,000
13. Honey, I'm Good 69,000
14. Somebody 68,000
15. Bitch Better Have My Money 62,000
16. Lay Me Down 62,000
17. Style 60,000
18. Hey Mama 59,000
19. Talking Body 57,000
20. Take Your Time 56,000

kworb.net/cc

Re: it being his "job", I believe Kworb does this in his freetime for us chart fans, and is not actually employed in the music industry. I could be wrong, though. His estimates are based on the iTunes pop bars.

[ss8]

^ Wait are you talking about this week or last weeks #s? lol. I am talking about *this week, this very second/day etc...lol The #s you posted sound like last weeks.

*Edit...never mind. I see those predictions are for THIS week. Wow. Yep, doesnt look like a fluke of a song. If its stays at #1 this and next week, w/it only *first exploding on radio, no way this song is giving up #1 anytime soon for anyone! lol. The fact it went this far basically just on sales (esp.w. this new formula) is *quite rare and sign the song may be a monster. 

[tekkenguy]

Apr 14, 2015 11:32:14 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Im amazed at how UF continues to get such minimal declines. While SYA is gaining on radio it's not smashing as hard as I thought it would be now. Clearly, radio is still fully behind/ not over UF lol. If things stay this way, next weeks charts will be super close (much more than this week). UF isn't 'gaining' (staying stagnant but it's only Tues.). SYA def isnt getting as many constant green updates. Actually, the last few have been red.

UF rose at a slow pace on radio for the first few weeks of its chart life even after it was smashing digitally. It wasn't until around the freeze that it started surging. It might take a few weeks but soon we'll be seeing SYA rocketing up the radio charts.

[allow that]

Apr 14, 2015 15:39:55 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Apr 14, 2015 11:32:14 GMT -5 ss8 said:

Im amazed at how UF continues to get such minimal declines. While SYA is gaining on radio it's not smashing as hard as I thought it would be now. Clearly, radio is still fully behind/ not over UF lol. If things stay this way, next weeks charts will be super close (much more than this week). UF isn't 'gaining' (staying stagnant but it's only Tues.). SYA def isnt getting as many constant green updates. Actually, the last few have been red.

UF rose at a slow pace on radio for the first few weeks of its chart life even after it was smashing digitally. It wasn't until around the freeze that it started surging. It might take a few weeks but soon we'll be seeing SYA rocketing up the radio charts.

Radio will respond more quickly after seeing the song rocket to #1 on the Hot 100. Plus, a new week of radio adds will be reported tonight so we'll see just how many new stations will begin spinning the song soon.

Even so, this time last week there was a 220 million audience gap between Mark and Wiz and it's already down to a 180 million gap.

[Dylan :)]

They definitely saw all this talk about making videos with the intent to make them go viral.

[when the pawn...]

The F7 soundtrack got 63,000 units via streaming and single sales this week. Bodes well for "See You Again." I'll be pretty surprised if UF gets week #15.

[Deleted]

Finally Shut Up And Dance is top 10 in airplay!
Hopefully unlike Radioactive this one actually makes it to #1 on the Hot 100...

[Gary]

Radioactive? There is a thread for that?


pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/148931/get-radioactive-imagine-dragons-back


The answer lies in viral videos.  Maybe that will work here too. 



 

[emperortigerstar]

So far I've heard Uptown Funk 6 time on the radio since Wednesday and the See You Again song exactly 0 times. Granted I only listen to the radio early in the morning and past 3:00 when driving home, but I think Uptown Funk will keep number 1 and SYA will have #2. Here is my prediction:

1. Uptown Funk
2. See You Again
3. Sugar
4. Earned It
5. Love Me Like You Do
6. Style
7. Trap Queen
8. GDFR
9. Shut Up and Dance
10. Thinking Out Loud

[brady47]

Apr 14, 2015 9:12:26 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2015/04/14

*** = dropped or added a format

1. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 207.072 (-1.348)
2. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 189.119 (-0.237)
3. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 180.327 (+1.470)

So Love Me Like You Do is going to snipe #1 in airplay from Sugar...

[allow that]

Apr 14, 2015 18:28:04 GMT -5 emperortigerstar said:

6. Style
7. Trap Queen

"Trap Queen" has been growing on all three components this week as "Style" declines, so if it was higher than "Style" already last week it DEFINITELY will be this week.

[fantasticbaby]

Apr 14, 2015 15:51:03 GMT -5 allow that said:

Apr 14, 2015 15:39:55 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

UF rose at a slow pace on radio for the first few weeks of its chart life even after it was smashing digitally. It wasn't until around the freeze that it started surging. It might take a few weeks but soon we'll be seeing SYA rocketing up the radio charts.

Radio will respond more quickly after seeing the song rocket to #1 on the Hot 100. Plus, a new week of radio adds will be reported tonight so we'll see just how many new stations will begin spinning the song soon.

Even so, this time last week there was a 220 million audience gap between Mark and Wiz and it's already down to a 180 million gap.

Actually, last week Billboard said "On Radio Songs, Uptown Funk dominates for an 11th week with 159 million in all-format audience"

Billboard uses Nielsen BDS not Mediabase.
The real gap is smaller than you think.

[jenglisbe]

Apr 14, 2015 18:28:04 GMT -5 emperortigerstar said:

So far I've heard Uptown Funk 6 time on the radio since Wednesday and the See You Again song exactly 0 times. Granted I only listen to the radio early in the morning and past 3:00 when driving home, but I think Uptown Funk will keep number 1 and SYA will have #2. Here is my prediction:

1. Uptown Funk
2. See You Again

You're right. Your area determines the Hot 100 entirely.

[crystalphnx]

Apr 14, 2015 16:03:21 GMT -5 when the pawn... said:

The F7 soundtrack got 63,000 units via streaming and single sales this week. Bodes well for "See You Again." I'll be pretty surprised if UF gets week #15.

I feel like...we should be doing something with this figure.

10 downloads = 1 album sale
1,500 streams = 1 album sale

Let's say Kworb's 440,000 estimate is pretty much spot-on - so that's 44,000/63,000 accounted for - which leaves 19,000 to be accounted for by streams. 19,000 x 1,500 = 28.5 million streams :o Of course, Furious 7 has tracks besides SYA that were bought and streamed, but even if we shave off some of those sales and streams...it seems to look really good for SYA.  Do we know if sales + streams of "G.D.F.R." count towards Flo's My House EP or the F7 Soundtrack? EDIT: It must count toward My House, since that had 8k in sales, but 24k SPS.

This is all using HITS and not the final Soundscan numbers, of course.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

The GDFR version on the soundtrack is the remix, not the original. Also I think Get Low counts for Dillon Francis' album and not the soundtrack.

[emperortigerstar]

Apr 14, 2015 19:28:30 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 14, 2015 18:28:04 GMT -5 emperortigerstar said:

So far I've heard Uptown Funk 6 time on the radio since Wednesday and the See You Again song exactly 0 times. Granted I only listen to the radio early in the morning and past 3:00 when driving home, but I think Uptown Funk will keep number 1 and SYA will have #2. Here is my prediction:

1. Uptown Funk
2. See You Again

You're right. Your area determines the Hot 100 entirely.

I never said that. I was just mentioning that because people were talking about low airplay of SYA and I was agreeing. 

[imbondz]

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

[Au$tin]

Apr 14, 2015 22:56:45 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

Not at all. The movie it's associated with was released. It's not weird, just a major coincidence.

[allow that]

Apr 14, 2015 22:56:45 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

How silly to compare a song from an established rapper from a major movie franchise to "Harlem Shake."

"Roar" came juuuust in time to prevent "Blurred Lines" from inching into record territory. "Gold Digger" came juuuust in time to prevent Mariah from challenging her own record. It's the music industry. There's a steady stream of releases and breakout hits.

[crystalphnx]

It wasn't really "just in time" anyway, UF is still 3 weeks shy of breaking the all-time record. It's not like this is happening right before it hit week 17.

Unless you meant the "record" of being the first song to spend exactly 15 weeks at No. 1 (which could still happen, depending on how SYA holds up and how steady UF holds.)

[imbondz]

Apr 14, 2015 23:15:42 GMT -5 allow that said:

Apr 14, 2015 22:56:45 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

How silly to compare a song from an established rapper from a major movie franchise to "Harlem Shake."

"Roar" came juuuust in time to prevent "Blurred Lines" from inching into record territory. "Gold Digger" came juuuust in time to prevent Mariah from challenging her own record. It's the music industry. There's a steady stream of releases and breakout hits.

Wiz isn't that established if at all.

[imbondz]

Apr 14, 2015 23:08:19 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 14, 2015 22:56:45 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

Not at all. The movie it's associated with was released. It's not weird, just a major coincidence.

Right, I forget the movie pushed it. Still the timing is crazy

[crystalphnx]

Apr 14, 2015 23:21:54 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Apr 14, 2015 23:15:42 GMT -5 allow that said:

How silly to compare a song from an established rapper from a major movie franchise to "Harlem Shake."

"Roar" came juuuust in time to prevent "Blurred Lines" from inching into record territory. "Gold Digger" came juuuust in time to prevent Mariah from challenging her own record. It's the music industry. There's a steady stream of releases and breakout hits.

Wiz isn't that established if at all.

I'm no Wiz stan, but...what?

- He has a No. 1 album, and two additional No. 2's
- He's had a No. 1 hit, and three additional Top 10's (as a lead act.) He's had two more as a featured act.

I mean, he's no Snoop Dogg...but why are people grasping at straws to "prove" that SYA taking off is some kind of bizarre, freak occurrence?

[jjose712]

Apr 14, 2015 22:56:45 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I think it's odd how SYA came out of the blue juuuuuuust in time to keep a song from breaking a record. Especially since the only time I've heard it is when I played the minute sample at iTunes. It's Harlem Shake rare.

No, it's not. The song for the soundtrack of the previous movie in the franchise did really well with sales too, so this was not unpredictable at all, the main difference is the other song didn't have the staying power and die after the buzz around the movie die, and this time doesn't seem to be the case.
There are a bunch of circumstances that make SYA a big potential hit, the truth is the song was charting on the hot 100 weeks before the release of the film and with very little airplay, and that says a lot.

And the airplay fo SYA is good for a song that was barely released to radio, it's climbing at good rhythm in several formats.
A lot of times pop was very behind, but i don't think that's the case. Airplay doesn't work like itunes, you can't make a song a top 10 hit overnight.

And about UF, there's been a good while if one looks the youtube chart videos that people complain and complain about UF being number one, it happens all the time with monster hits, a part of the audience get tired of the dominance of one song. UF has a big advantage of not having to compete with new songs from Mark and Bruno, or nothing similar in sound, which means a long way down the charts. I don't know if it will match the year that Stay with me got last week (which has a lot of merit because Sam had two other top 10 hits after SWM) but i won't be surprised if it really gets there.

I'm more than ready for a new number one, but i don't mind if UF dethrones Party rock anthem as the number one song of the decade. Seeing that atrocity as number one it hurts

[jjose712]

Apr 14, 2015 23:29:30 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Apr 14, 2015 23:21:54 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Wiz isn't that established if at all.

I'm no Wiz stan, but...what?

- He has a No. 1 album, and two additional No. 2's
- He's had a No. 1 hit, and three additional Top 10's (as a lead act.) He's had two more as a featured act.

I mean, he's no Snoop Dogg...but why are people grasping at straws to "prove" that SYA taking off is some kind of bizarre, freak occurrence?

And in fact we have exactly an example of being new and hitting big on the Hot 100 with Uptown funk. Mark Ronson didn't have a previous hit, and Uptown funk rose in the charts like there's no tomorrow.
And we can use Bruno too, Bruno was an unknown and two collaborations later he was basically stablished as a hitmaker