Carrie Underwood - "Smoke Break"

[Deleted]

I don't love "Smoke Break," but I actually don't think most of Carrie's lead singles have represented her albums as a whole anyway, so I'm not concerned about the album itself.


Carrie has always made it pretty clear that she wants to make music that has "something for everyone," and in that way, I think she's been able to tackle a variety of topics and styles, but it also kind of feels like she hasn't made that great, consistent album that some fans have been waiting for from her.

It does seem a bit odd that Carrie called this song "a no-brainer" for a lead single choice, because (as others have mentioned), this doesn't really have the feel of an extremely memorable, quality lead single that her past few eras have showcased.

Secondly, though, none of this really concerns me too much, because Carrie may have her misses her and there, but she's also delivered excellent material like "Little Toy Guns," "Something In The Water," "Blown Away," etc. within the past several years, and she's show an incredible desire to keep moving forward and challenging herself as an artist.

Unlike most of her peers, Carrie isn't one of those artists who rests on her laurels and costs along (even though, at this point we all know she could).

I think it's extremely important to point out that Carrie is one of the FEW artists left who actually wants to push herself and keep growing and surprising people, and she seems even more inspired than she was the last time we really saw her push herself with the "Blown Away" era.

Carrie is savvy, she seems incredibly in touch with what she needs to do in order to satisfy both herself and her audience, which is not something a lot of current artists seem to have.

I suspect that Carrie knew she couldn't deliver another "Good Girl" or "Cowboy Casanova" (lyrically or sonically), so she took a risk and changed it up with a more mellow topic, and a different producer, to boot.

Carrie's singles have been more "epic" as of late, (whether it be lyrically or sonically), and I'm sure she's well-aware that many people wanted something completely different this time out.

"Smoke Break" has its weaknesses, for sure, but I don't think that should be a reason to worry Carrie won't deliver with "Storyteller," (she loves her variety, and she's more than capable of releasing another WAW, Blown Away, or TBC).

The songwriting and production of SB feels a bit clunky at times, but I suppose it doesn't bother me at much, because at least Carrie stepped out of her comfort zone here. I do think the lyrics could be stronger, but I also try to keep in mind that Carrie is still (kind of) flexing her muscles in terms of "fleshing out" her songwriting, and missteps are to be expected.

Again, maybe I'm willing to overlook because she really only started being an active participant in her songwriting a few short years ago, but I also am willing to respect that she clearly wants to have an active hand in writing her material and sharpening her skills a little bit.

I don't think Carrie is immune from criticism (she's had her fair share of artistic flaws, ("Smoke Break" included,) but it's clear that she's going for a different route, is challenging herself, and isn't just resting on her laurels and releasing "Good Girl"/ "Cowboy Casanova" part 500 to radio; all these things point to the (simple) fact that she's aware of the stakes, she's (probably) aware of the criticism, and she cares enough to still continue to be heavily involved in her artistry and pushing herself to be the best she can.

God knows, an artist like Carrie NOT using/seeing her full potential would be a damn shame, but it's pretty clear by now she's giving it everything she can to live up to the (insane) expectations put upon her because of her incredible talent.

Carrie went from an unknown talent show winner to a superstar virtually overnight; it's not like she'd been honing her craft on bars and clubs for 20 years.

I guess my overall point is, I think the expectations lobbied at Carrie because of her talent are sometimes a bit unrealistic, and people tend to get ahead of themselves in terms of what she should/could do.

She's shown an incredible amount of resilience, growth and artistic maturity over the past decade, and she seems to know just the kind of microscope she's under from people who scrutinize her.

By no means am I saying everyone should love what she does, but Carrie has shown an insane of amount of sharpness, skill, and growth in the past several years, and I don't see any reason to worry about it now.
She's just hitting her stride, and I think she deserves a lot more credit than what she's (usually) given for becoming better version of her (artistic) self, instead of worse.

[Deleted]

I really liked this initially and my love for this song has only grown. I'm really anxious at what the rest of the record sounds like now.

[defying gravity]

Everybody saying that this is a "grower" song is exactly right. I didn't even hate this song at first, and yet it has still grown on me tremendously.

However, I disagree with the people saying this is a completely new sound for her. To me, "Little Toy Guns" was unlike anything she has ever recorded, and definitely felt more like a "rock" song than country. This one is definitely more country sounding, and I can't really see how this is so drastically different than the rest of her songs. I do agree with the Miranda comparisons though. 

[missbehaving]

Definitely has grown on me too. Happy to see her being so successful, country music needs more women on top.

[Cody Wants Out...]

This is exactly the kind of song I was looking for and hoping she'd release as a single for the past few years. Releasing it as a lead single makes it that much better and much more satisfying. Here's to hoping the album is just as solid as all the others.

[krud489]

Is there any chance this is pushing for #1 on or close to the week of the album drop? That'd be even sweeter.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 6, 2015 9:42:33 GMT -5 krud489 said:

Is there any chance this is pushing for #1 on or close to the week of the album drop? That'd be even sweeter.

That would be ideal, but that would mean this would become one of Carrie's fastest rising singles, ever. I think 1-3 weeks after the album release would be the best bet for a peak. I think that's more beneficial, however, because Carrie would have a #1 single (assuming this makes it) heading into the holidays. It would be great for generating "buzz"... I'm by no means an expert, but I don't think, despite its smooth sailing so far, this will make it to the top in time for the album release.

[Marv]

Cowboy Casanova skyrocketed to #1 in just ten weeks and would have spent multiple weeks in the penthouse if it hadn't been for the super-bland 'Need You Now'.

If she winds up following Blake Shelton to #1 that would be fine with me as well.

OTOH, if her next single goods to radio shortly after the 2016 Mediabase chart year begins NINE weeks from today on November 8th, that would be (in the words of Jimmy Fallon) 'friggin' awesome!

[krud489]

I just hope there isn't any song that deters it's path to #1. I know most labels especially Carrie's consider MB the more "legitimate" chart if you will, but I really want to see her get back to the top of the BB airplay chart as well. My gosh it's been 3 1/2 years.

[defying gravity]

Stupid question, but is Smoke Break eligible for this year's CMA Awards? I don't know much about award show eligibility periods lol.

[Deleted]

Sept 6, 2015 16:53:05 GMT -5 defying gravity said:

Stupid question, but is Smoke Break eligible for this year's CMA Awards? I don't know much about award show eligibility periods lol.

Not quite it wasn't released til August. I think the CMA guidelines this year are like August 2014 to July 2015 sabre14 that's correct right? Anyway if Carrie is getting noms it's for Female and maybe Song and Video.

[sabre14]

Sept 6, 2015 16:56:35 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

Sept 6, 2015 16:53:05 GMT -5 defying gravity said:

Stupid question, but is Smoke Break eligible for this year's CMA Awards? I don't know much about award show eligibility periods lol.

Not quite it wasn't released til August. I think the CMA guidelines this year are like August 2014 to July 2015 sabre14 that's correct right?

Close. The eligibility period for the 2015 CMA's is July 1st, 2014 to June 30th, 2015.

"Smoke Break" will be eligible for next year's show.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 6, 2015 16:56:35 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

Sept 6, 2015 16:53:05 GMT -5 defying gravity said:

Stupid question, but is Smoke Break eligible for this year's CMA Awards? I don't know much about award show eligibility periods lol.

Not quite it wasn't released til August. I think the CMA guidelines this year are like August 2014 to July 2015 sabre14 that's correct right? Anyway if Carrie is getting noms it's for Female and maybe Song and Video.

Carrie's label submitted her for Single, Song, and Video for "Something in the Water", as well as Female and Entertainer. With "Automatic" being out of the picture, Carrie may have a shot at some combination of Single/Song/Video; Miranda hasn't had a song since "Automatic" that would seem likely to earn nominations in those categories. "Little Red Wagon" just wasn't a huge hit, and it wasn't as well liked as Miranda's songs usually are. "Smokin' and Drinkin" could garner some attention, being that it's a collaboration of two critical darlings in country music, but its radio performance doesn't seem to suggest that it's popular within the country music scene...

But to get back on topic, no, "Smoke Break" isn't eligible, but it will be for both the ACMs and CMAs next year.

[krud489]

She's really closing in on Blake. At least on MB. Could she really pass Blake Shelton on the charts? I thought that was virtually impossible nowadays lol

[spencer]

Sept 7, 2015 8:06:00 GMT -5 krud489 said:

She's really closing in on Blake. At least on MB. Could she really pass Blake Shelton on the charts? I thought that was virtually impossible nowadays lol

0f course she can. She's Carrie Underwood. The question isn't can she, it's will radio's testosterone feuled charts let her?
Seriously radio seems to be lovin' Smoke Break. And why not. Given what radio's been playing for the last looooong while SB is a breath of fresh air. A nice respite.

[krud489]

Agreed 100%. Hopefully we hear her name a few times on Wednesday when CMA nominees are announced.

[carrieidol1]

So... This song seems to be moving at an unprecedented pace. Pretty much gaining 1 million + AIs daily, today's update being only slightly lower than 1 million. Already #19, and gaining on/surpassing many of the songs that would normally be huge competition for Carrie. So, this begs the question, any predictions from our resident experts? Will Carrie reach #1 on Mediabase AND Billboard for the first time in almost four years? If so, could she possibly stay there for multiple weeks?

Obviously there shouldn't be any worries about a lackluster push on the label's part since this is a lead single and likely the label's biggest priority right now, so I have no worries about this getting to #1, but you NEVER know! Just wondering what the "experts" are thinking at this point? I know I'm jumping the gun here, but whatever... lol.

[43dudleyvillas]

Sept 8, 2015 10:10:25 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

So... This song seems to be moving at an unprecedented pace. Pretty much gaining 1 million + AIs daily, today's update being only slightly lower than 1 million. Already #19, and gaining on/surpassing many of the songs that would normally be huge competition for Carrie. So, this begs the question, any predictions from our resident experts? Will Carrie reach #1 on Mediabase AND Billboard for the first time in almost four years? If so, could she possibly stay there for multiple weeks?

That "Smoke Break" would get off to a fast start was never in question, especially since it is a lead single from an A-lister. What this song does as it approaches the top-10 and rises through the top-10 will be the tell as to its prospects for topping the charts.

If you read through previous Carrie single threads, especially in the past few years, the conversations here mirror the ones in those at this point of the single chart runs: fast starts breed confidence about the single being a smash until suddenly, just as the Carrie single is ready to make a quick entry into the top-10, there's a Brad Paisley single that needs a boost to gain its own conversions or something like that and the Carrie single magically slows down enough not only to allow for that, but also enough for a different A-list male hit to scream by at Billboard, if not also at Mediabase.

In this case, it does appear to me that the coast will be clear of labelmates in "Smoke Break"'s part of the chart by the time it hits top-10, but Chris Young will be releasing an album a couple of weeks after Carrie, and if there are conversions at stake, I don't think there are any guarantees they will go "Smoke Break"'s way, early radio reception notwithstanding (the pattern has been that Sony Nashville's promo team has erroneously assumed that it can easily re-ignite momentum after stalling a fast starter from Carrie).

Moreover, although Blake's single is moving slightly slowly by his standards, I certainly wouldn't get comfortable about "Smoke Break"'s #1 prospects if "Smoke Break" passes and "Gonna" winds up nipping at "Smoke Break"'s heels. By the time a #1 peak is in sight, Jason Aldean's single may be close enough to threaten, and so on and so forth. While I do think "Smoke Break" will be an easier sell at current country radio than Carrie's recent singles (for better and worse), I don't see how anyone can look at the way Sony Nashville's radio promo team has operated in the past few years (despite new leadership at the very top, the personnel remain largely the same for now) and the way that country radio continues to operate (especially with respect to male artists versus female artists) and think that the first three weeks of "Smoke Break"'s run are much of an indication of its #1 airplay prospects, much less its prospects of topping airplay charts for multiple weeks. All we're seeing now is conversions as "Smoke Break" enters top-20 rotation across the country panel and those were all but guaranteed to come early in "Smoke Break"'s run, anyway.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 8, 2015 11:47:48 GMT -5 43dudleyvillas said:

Sept 8, 2015 10:10:25 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

So... This song seems to be moving at an unprecedented pace. Pretty much gaining 1 million + AIs daily, today's update being only slightly lower than 1 million. Already #19, and gaining on/surpassing many of the songs that would normally be huge competition for Carrie. So, this begs the question, any predictions from our resident experts? Will Carrie reach #1 on Mediabase AND Billboard for the first time in almost four years? If so, could she possibly stay there for multiple weeks?

That "Smoke Break" would get off to a fast start was never in question, especially since it is a lead single from an A-lister. What this song does as it approaches the top-10 and rises through the top-10 will be the tell as to its prospects for topping the charts.

If you read through previous Carrie single threads, especially in the past few years, the conversations here mirror the ones in those at this point of the single chart runs: fast starts breed confidence about the single being a smash until suddenly, just as the Carrie single is ready to make a quick entry into the top-10, there's a Brad Paisley single that needs a boost to gain its own conversions or something like that and the Carrie single magically slows down enough not only to allow for that, but also enough for a different A-list male hit to scream by at Billboard, if not also at Mediabase.

In this case, it does appear to me that the coast will be clear of labelmates in "Smoke Break"'s part of the chart by the time it hits top-10, but Chris Young will be releasing an album a couple of weeks after Carrie, and if there are conversions at stake, I don't think there are any guarantees they will go "Smoke Break"'s way, early radio reception notwithstanding (the pattern has been that Sony Nashville's promo team has erroneously assumed that it can easily re-ignite momentum after stalling a fast starter from Carrie).

Moreover, although Blake's single is moving slightly slowly by his standards, I certainly wouldn't get comfortable about "Smoke Break"'s #1 prospects if "Smoke Break" passes and "Gonna" winds up nipping at "Smoke Break"'s heels. By the time a #1 peak is in sight, Jason Aldean's single may be close enough to threaten, and so on and so forth. While I do think "Smoke Break" will be an easier sell at current country radio than Carrie's recent singles (for better and worse), I don't see how anyone can look at the way Sony Nashville's radio promo team has operated in the past few years (despite new leadership at the top, the personnel remain largely the same for now) and the way that country radio continues to operate (especially with respect to male artists versus female artists) and think that the first three weeks of "Smoke Break"'s run are much of an indication of its #1 airplay prospects, much less its prospects of topping airplay charts for multiple weeks. All we're seeing now is conversions as "Smoke Break" enters top-20 rotation across the country panel and those were all but guaranteed to come early in "Smoke Break"'s run, anyway.

I'm sorry, you seem agitated by my post (or I'm completely misreading the tone). Either way, I just wanted someone who's a little more chart inclined to share their thoughts. So, thank you.

I do recall the past few times things looking wonderfully early on, and then slowing down towards the second half of the chart run. However, I think there are a few key differences. This is the lead single from Carrie's first studio in almost four years, so I'd assume they have a little more invested in this than perhaps some of Carrie's recent radio releases. Coinciding with the album release, if "Smoke Break" seems to be struggling, I'd have to assume the label would get involved there; hopefully a little more than in the past. With that said, you're completely right, Carrie's singles as of recent have seemingly been placed on the back-burner, so to speak, at some point during their respective chart runs in order to promote her label-mates. Who's to say that won't happen again?... So I completely understand your point. However, with recent management changes and such, maybe the tides will change a bit? I'm not implying that I think they will change. Rather, I'm just hoping they do!

Nevertheless, I don't expect anyone to be able to tell the future of "Smoke Break" based on a few weeks of chart updates, despite the circumstances I listed above. However, I do appreciate your analysis! If you hadn't posted this, I'd probably be under the impression that this is a surefire #1. Of course I do hope this hits #1, but at least now I'm grounded in knowing it's not a guarantee; a concept I think Carrie fans are still learning, at least I know I am!

[malwaredie]

There's no agitation in dudley's post. Telling you that there is a recurring topic in the last few single threads for Carrie is not in any way an attempt to chide you for not following the threads more closely but is part of an attempt to give you an analysis that you asked for.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 9, 2015 11:02:32 GMT -5 malwaredie said:

There's no agitation in dudley's post. Telling you that there is a recurring topic in the last few single threads for Carrie is not in any way an attempt to chide you for not following the threads more closely but is part of an attempt to give you an analysis that you asked for.

Thank you. I figured, but sometimes I have trouble reading people's tones through a message board.

[Marv]

Up to #16 this morning as what looks to be her best chart run in ages rolls on with no hiccups, and will undoubtedly pass Eric Church today or tomorrow.

[northwestfan]

Saw her perform this single last night on Fallon. The irritating thing about the performance was the chorus comes in with such ferocity that it drowns out her lyrics. I don't understand why this has to happen. The same thing occurred with Brad Paisley's performance, too, when he was on Fallon. Chorus music way too loud - lyrics not understood. Maybe if I had memorized the lyrics to these songs, I could get passed it, but it's just not a polished and professional performance if the lyrics are drowned out.

[countrygirl918]

I think the performance was great, but I do agree the band's volume needs to be turned down for the chorus. The guitars in particular, and the background vocals, were way too loud and Carrie was pretty much fighting to be heard over them. The verses sounded perfect volume-wise, though.

[sgtoddball]

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

[Deleted]

Sept 11, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

I have a hard time buying that's it's not connecting, when its racing up the charts. Sales suck everywhere, not just for this song.

[sgtoddball]

Sept 11, 2015 14:51:50 GMT -5 @adam1995 said:

Sept 11, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

I have a hard time buying that's it's not connecting, when its racing up the charts. Sales suck everywhere, not just for this song.

Racing up the chart means nothing imo as it relates to connecting. This is a Carrie Underwood lead single that is being outsold by several songs that have virtually no promo or tv performance.

[rjz]

Sept 11, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

Well, it is #7-higher than its chart position.

Or do you mean just compared to her previous singles? Seems like she debuts at the top of Country iTunes-has she stayed near the top longer than this song?

[sgtoddball]

Sept 11, 2015 15:00:50 GMT -5 rjz said:

Sept 11, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

Well, it is #7-higher than its chart position.

Or do you mean just compared to her previous singles? Seems like she debuts at the top of Country iTunes-has she stayed near the top longer than this song?

I just feel like a brand new Carrie Single in the past would be outselling songs by Cam, Thomas Rhett, Chris Janson, Keith Urban and Sam Hunt. Especially since those singles have been out for a while and I haven't seen any TV promo for any of the songs ahead of her.

[43dudleyvillas]

Sept 11, 2015 14:38:09 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Am I the only one here that feels like this is underperforming in sales? The apple streaming deal aside, this song is just not connecting like most of her singles have.

"Smoke Break" had stabilized around #9 or #10 on the iTunes country chart prior to last night and I think in the high forties/low fifties all-genre. Post-Fallon, the song is up to #39 #37 all-genre, #7 country. To me, even with the context about sales being down due to Apple Music's free streaming trial, the first week sales of "Smoke Break" made it clear that if the song was really going to connect widely, it would do so via a different sales trajectory than Carrie's previous lead singles, which have been bigger out of the gate in both a relative and an absolute sense. As I think you and others have pointed out in this thread, "Smoke Break" doesn't have quite the epic/event/undeniable feel of Carrie's highest-impacting hits, and given the singles she has released over the past five or six years, its sound is perhaps a bit of an adjustment for fans (and even non-fans).

Still, the fact that "Smoke Break" had stabilized at iTunes (and may even have started to creep up a bit) before its televised live debut is a possible affirmation of the suggestions earlier in the thread that the song is indeed a "grower" and is starting to connect via airplay exposure. Of course, we would need to see continued growth & stability at iTunes to keep believing that is the case.

Sept 9, 2015 11:02:32 GMT -5 malwaredie said:

There's no agitation in dudley's post. Telling you that there is a recurring topic in the last few single threads for Carrie is not in any way an attempt to chide you for not following the threads more closely but is part of an attempt to give you an analysis that you asked for.

Thanks for understanding, malwaredie. To be fair to carrieidol1, "I don't see how anyone..." is not the most patient or understanding thing that I could have written, but I definitely wasn't feeling "agitation." I'm simply a believer in the predictive value of history lessons.

We should start seeing callout numbers for "Smoke Break" in the next couple of weeks, as well, and that trajectory may also give us a better idea whether this will be an easier sell at country radio than Carrie's recent singles.

Lastly, while I don't know that it will yield anything quantifiable (at least not in the short-term), I can't help but feel there is value in the good will "Smoke Break" seems to have generated in the country blogosphere and media for its unabashed turn to a twangier sound (especially in a time when so many of the genre's rising acts are chasing hits that are anything but country in sound and sensibility), its focus on adults with responsibilities (in a time when mainstream country has been fixated on weekend! partying! drinking! in trucks!) and the fact that Carrie dials back her vocals more than usual. And I like the idea of Carrie taking on both the musical challenge of credible interpretation and delivery with those three things in mind, as well the country market challenge of making those things connect. If the combination of those challenges can lead Carrie to deliver a single (or, better yet, singles) with the quality and impact of some of her career-defining songs, it would be important, not only for her, but for mainstream country.

So I'm comfortable (for now, anyway) with what we're seeing on the sales front, interested to see if Carrie can make this endeavor work & also interested to see whether her ear for and ability to deliver twangier country can match her ear for and ability to deliver more dramatically-rendered, orchestral country-pop-rock.