Carrie Underwood - "Smoke Break"

[43dudleyvillas]

I did see the Bullseye Callout data but the current sample size means that the reaction to the song was from 40 people under the age of 35 and all of 37 people over the age of 35. That's nowhere near a big enough sample from which to extrapolate reasonable demographic-based assessments about response to the song. I also don't trust the first week of data from any survey, and prefer to see how a song is trending over its run, starting around six to eight weeks after an A-lister release.

[jenglisbe]

Sept 2, 2015 23:27:20 GMT -5 @carrieflattsfan said:

I don't love "Smoke Break," but I actually don't think most of Carrie's lead singles have represented her albums as a whole anyway, so I'm not concerned about the album itself.

Agreed.

It does seem a bit odd that Carrie called this song "a no-brainer" for a lead single choice, because (as others have mentioned), this doesn't really have the feel of an extremely memorable, quality lead single that her past few eras have showcased.

Well, IMO most of her lead singles are middle-of-the-pack in terms of where they rank on their respective albums. "JTTW" was a great debut single, but since then the three lead singles were obvious in their intent as a lead single, but not really the best songs on their albums by a long shot. I think a lot of her non-singles are better - and more country - than the singles ("Flat on the Floor," "Quitter," "Someday When I Stop Loving You," "Do You Think About Me," "Leave Love Alone," "Wine After Whiskey"). It's likely that will be the case again with the new album. My guess is "Smoke Break" was an obvious lead single to them because it's uptempo and relatable.

I'm interested to see where they go with the second single, because those are usually the underwhelming ones for me. "DFTRM" is nice, but not special. "All-American Girl" made sense for radio, but again it isn't anything epic. "Temporary Home" is just not my kind of song. "Blown Away" was the first time to me where she hit hard with a second single and released something epic. Hopefully the second single on the new project is more of that and not some nice but unmemorable song.

[14887fan]

It's also worth nothing that sales are down across the board for all genres. The week of SB's debut, the #1 song on the Digital Sales Chart (for all genres), "Locked Away", sold a grand 91,000 copies. The fact that this song, which just now started getting some actual televised promo after its initial release + video release, is selling lower than songs that've been out and had more time to build in popularity for the past month and a half or so ("Crash and Burn", 'John/John/John', "Burning House", anything by Sam Hunt) doesn't surprise me. This'll go Gold, and that'll be perfectly fine. It's different from all of her other releases in the past, and it's no secret that it's taken a while for a lot of people to connect with it -- even hardcore fans like myself.

[jenglisbe]

I thought the person who questioned its sales focused on position, though, not numbers. Yes, numbers are down overall, but I, too, would expect a new single from Carrie to have more interest/sales than third, fourth, and fifth singles from other artists. I think the fact that "Smoke Break" is following two fairly recent Carrie singles is part of it, though. It's not like Carrie has been out of the picture for awhile and this is a return to music. And it could be that the song just hasn't had an immediate impact for people. Let's see how it sells as airplay continues to grow and as promo kicks up.

[dm2081]

Sure Carrie's a little bit lower than some other songs on iTunes right now, but they've also had much more radio exposure. Luke is currently at #1 with "Strip It Down" which is basically a brand new Luke single since it was an instant download and will most likely be the biggest hit of his current album. At #2 is Cam's "Burning House", which is experiencing the "new song by new artist" phenomenon right now. Whenever somebody relatively unknown comes out with a game changing new song, it usually explodes digitally (ex: Cruise, Leave The Night On, Buy Me A Boat, etc.). #3 is "John 3x" by Keith which is on its way to becoming one of the biggest hits of the year, same goes for #6 "Crash And Burn", which also has a sales bump because the album is being advertised heavily on iTunes. "Buy Me A Boat" is similar to "Burning House", and the only other song in front of Carrie is Sam Hunt, the biggest thing since FGL. So when you break it down, there's really no shame in this song being #7 on iTunes right now. By the time the album comes out and this is nearing top 5 on the charts it will be selling even better. This song and Carrie are doing fine.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 11, 2015 16:45:50 GMT -5 @daydrinker said:

Thanks for pointing that out @43 dudleyvillas...I don't know what I was thinking. My apologies to everyone for some strange posts this week. I guess I'm not quite at the top of my game lately, I think I need a vacation, lol.

I think a "Smoke Break" should do ya just fine!

[jenglisbe]

Sept 11, 2015 19:46:55 GMT -5 dm2081 said:

Sure Carrie's a little bit lower than some other songs on iTunes right now, but they've also had much more radio exposure. Luke is currently at #1 with "Strip It Down" which is basically a brand new Luke single since it was an instant download and will most likely be the biggest hit of his current album. At #2 is Cam's "Burning House", which is experiencing the "new song by new artist" phenomenon right now. Whenever somebody relatively unknown comes out with a game changing new song, it usually explodes digitally (ex: Cruise, Leave The Night On, Buy Me A Boat, etc.). #3 is "John 3x" by Keith which is one its way to becoming one of the biggest hits of the year, same goes for #6 "Crash And Burn", which also has a sales bump because the album is being advertised heavily on iTunes. "Buy Me A Boat" is similar to "Burning House", and the only other song in front of Carrie is Sam Hunt, the biggest thing since FGL. So when you break it down, there's really no shame in this song being #7 on iTunes right now. By the time the album comes out and this is nearing top 5 on the charts it will be selling even better. This song and Carrie are doing fine.

Isn't Keith's song a fourth or fifth single, though? Those don't usually sell as well as lead single.

The Cam song is lower than "Smoke Break" in airplay and has a smaller bullet.

[Kat5Kind]

Sept 11, 2015 21:05:06 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Sept 11, 2015 19:46:55 GMT -5 dm2081 said:

Sure Carrie's a little bit lower than some other songs on iTunes right now, but they've also had much more radio exposure. Luke is currently at #1 with "Strip It Down" which is basically a brand new Luke single since it was an instant download and will most likely be the biggest hit of his current album. At #2 is Cam's "Burning House", which is experiencing the "new song by new artist" phenomenon right now. Whenever somebody relatively unknown comes out with a game changing new song, it usually explodes digitally (ex: Cruise, Leave The Night On, Buy Me A Boat, etc.). #3 is "John 3x" by Keith which is one its way to becoming one of the biggest hits of the year, same goes for #6 "Crash And Burn", which also has a sales bump because the album is being advertised heavily on iTunes. "Buy Me A Boat" is similar to "Burning House", and the only other song in front of Carrie is Sam Hunt, the biggest thing since FGL. So when you break it down, there's really no shame in this song being #7 on iTunes right now. By the time the album comes out and this is nearing top 5 on the charts it will be selling even better. This song and Carrie are doing fine.

Isn't Keith's song a fourth or fifth single, though? Those don't usually sell as well as lead single.

The Cam song is lower than "Smoke Break" in airplay and has a smaller bullet.

John 3x isn't- it's a lead single :)

[bornfearless2000]

I think Carrie and her team are well-awared that SB is not going to smash like GG/CC. It's the song that proves to non-fans that she doesn't always sing boy-bashing or pop leaning song. I have a feeling that SB is going to shoot up to the top country radio before or the week the album drops, and release RR, a song with glory notes and super crazy beats right after to maximize album sales.

[Deleted]

Sept 11, 2015 21:05:06 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Sept 11, 2015 19:46:55 GMT -5 dm2081 said:

Sure Carrie's a little bit lower than some other songs on iTunes right now, but they've also had much more radio exposure. Luke is currently at #1 with "Strip It Down" which is basically a brand new Luke single since it was an instant download and will most likely be the biggest hit of his current album. At #2 is Cam's "Burning House", which is experiencing the "new song by new artist" phenomenon right now. Whenever somebody relatively unknown comes out with a game changing new song, it usually explodes digitally (ex: Cruise, Leave The Night On, Buy Me A Boat, etc.). #3 is "John 3x" by Keith which is one its way to becoming one of the biggest hits of the year, same goes for #6 "Crash And Burn", which also has a sales bump because the album is being advertised heavily on iTunes. "Buy Me A Boat" is similar to "Burning House", and the only other song in front of Carrie is Sam Hunt, the biggest thing since FGL. So when you break it down, there's really no shame in this song being #7 on iTunes right now. By the time the album comes out and this is nearing top 5 on the charts it will be selling even better. This song and Carrie are doing fine.

Isn't Keith's song a fourth or fifth single, though? Those don't usually sell as well as lead single.

The Cam song is lower than "Smoke Break" in airplay and has a smaller bullet.

As Kat5Kind said, "John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16" is a brand new Keith Urban single. He hasn't even announced the album yet, most likely because it won't be out until the wintertime (sometime after the New Year). JJJ has been a very big hit for Keith. And as for Cam, well, it's not all that different than what we saw with LBT's "Girl Crush". "Burning House" is a very unique song, very powerful, and it's turning heads. It's not gonna blaze up the radio charts (because Cam is a new artist), but those rare songs that make you stop and really pay attention are always gonna sell extremely well.

I think "Smoke Break" is doing just fine. To put it in different terms, it feels like it's doing about 80% as well as Carrie's lead singles typically do (sales-wise), and I think it's just because it's a little bit of a different sound from her. I think it's her best single since "Blown Away", and it's one of my all-time favorites from her. I liked it from the get-go, but as others have said, for some people it's definitely a grower.

[Deleted]

Well, this is already on the heels of RCA's "Break up with Him," and if Sony does allow this to pass Old Dominion, there's still Chase Rice's "Gonna Wanna Tonight" on the cusp of the Top 10. While I do think Carrie has an easy path to #1 with this one, there will be some roadblocks ahead.

That being said, I don't see any songs behind Carrie that could pose a threat to SB, so I think Sony's still pretty safe in choosing to push their newer artists ahead this time. Most of the big names are already in the Top 10 (Keith, Kenny, Luke, FGL). Blake, Jason, and Tim are climbing relatively slowly with songs that are under-performing in single sales, so I can't see any of those three being a threat to Carrie. She'll likely be trailed by Cole, Dan + Shay, and Blake. These three artists are all on Warner's roster, so I think Warner will be working pretty hard to keep these in a single-file line, and obviously Carrie's had a way smoother run than these three.

As I've said with "Little Toy Guns," if Carrie has trouble getting to #1 this time around it'll be because some research numbers cause this to struggle on its own, not because of an SITW-esque situation where Carrie runs into bigger hits and gets blocked. It's crazy to think that Carrie hasn't had a #1 since "Blown Away" when you see how much radio momentum she still has, but I'm really confident this will finally take her back to the summit.

[spencer]

Sept 12, 2015 20:30:34 GMT -5 @daydrinker said:

Well, this is already on the heels of RCA's "Break up with Him," and if Sony does allow this to pass Old Dominion, there's still Chase Rice's "Gonna Wanna Tonight" on the cusp of the Top 10. While I do think Carrie has an easy path to #1 with this one, there will be some roadblocks ahead.

That being said, I don't see any songs behind Carrie that could pose a threat to SB, so I think Sony's still pretty safe in choosing to push their newer artists ahead this time. Most of the big names are already in the Top 10 (Keith, Kenny, Luke, FGL). Blake, Jason, and Tim are climbing relatively slowly with songs that are under-performing in single sales, so I can't see any of those three being a threat to Carrie. She'll likely be trailed by Cole, Dan + Shay, and Blake. These three artists are all on Warner's roster, so I think Warner will be working pretty hard to keep these in a single-file line, and obviously Carrie's had a way smoother run than these three.

As I've said with "Little Toy Guns," if Carrie has trouble getting to #1 this time around it'll be because some research numbers cause this to struggle on its own, not because of an SITW-esque situation where Carrie runs into bigger hits and gets blocked. It's crazy to think that Carrie hasn't had a #1 since "Blown Away" when you see how much radio momentum she still has, but I'm really confident this will finally take her back to the summit.

What do you mean, 'Carrie hasn't had a #1 since Blown Away?? ,Little Toy Guns, did go to #1 and SITW was a huge hit, it's progression up the chart was deliberately slowed down by the record label to help struggling male label mates up the chart......they didn't time it well and SITW paid for it. It sat at number 1 for weeks on other charts.

[bornfearless2000]

Sept 12, 2015 21:48:22 GMT -5 spencer said:

Sept 12, 2015 20:30:34 GMT -5 @daydrinker said:

Well, this is already on the heels of RCA's "Break up with Him," and if Sony does allow this to pass Old Dominion, there's still Chase Rice's "Gonna Wanna Tonight" on the cusp of the Top 10. While I do think Carrie has an easy path to #1 with this one, there will be some roadblocks ahead.

That being said, I don't see any songs behind Carrie that could pose a threat to SB, so I think Sony's still pretty safe in choosing to push their newer artists ahead this time. Most of the big names are already in the Top 10 (Keith, Kenny, Luke, FGL). Blake, Jason, and Tim are climbing relatively slowly with songs that are under-performing in single sales, so I can't see any of those three being a threat to Carrie. She'll likely be trailed by Cole, Dan + Shay, and Blake. These three artists are all on Warner's roster, so I think Warner will be working pretty hard to keep these in a single-file line, and obviously Carrie's had a way smoother run than these three.

As I've said with "Little Toy Guns," if Carrie has trouble getting to #1 this time around it'll be because some research numbers cause this to struggle on its own, not because of an SITW-esque situation where Carrie runs into bigger hits and gets blocked. It's crazy to think that Carrie hasn't had a #1 since "Blown Away" when you see how much radio momentum she still has, but I'm really confident this will finally take her back to the summit.

What do you mean, 'Carrie hasn't had a #1 since Blown Away?? ,Little Toy Guns, did go to #1 and SITW was a huge hit, it's progression up the chart was deliberately slowed down by the record label to help struggling male label mates up the chart......they didn't time it well and SITW paid for it. It sat at number 1 for weeks on other charts.

@daydrinker was talking about Billboard Airplay Chart, LTG peaked at #2 on Billboard Airplay and #1 Mediabase Chart.

I hope the label won't hold SB's run because i think it will hurt SB's momentum. This needs to shoot up to #1 at least before the week of album release and they should release RR immediately.

[krud489]

I'm just glad to see this is having a Luke-esque chart run. Top 15 in 3 weeks is impressive. She even PASSED BLAKE which is saying something nowadays I think. Are we assuming that RR will be next or is there confirmation on that somewhere?

[Marv]

Being #15 after some 24 days of airplay is fine, even acknowledging the saturation airplay on Friday 8-21 which made zero sense.

She's just under 1,000 spins behind Luke and that margin will almost certainly increase. I certainly expect her to reach #1 next month (duh!); whether she beats or follows Balke to the penthouse won't really matter.

Launching her new single sometime after the start of the 2016 Mediabase year on November 8th makes plenty of sense to me.

[Marv]

She's now on track to finish no worse than #11 this week at Mediabase thanks to another solid gain of 205 spins,and could conceivablycrack the top 10 if she passes the so-so Cole Swindell tune.

Pretty friggin' awesome (thanks Jimmy Fallon), and (perhaps) five more weeks away from matching CCs blistering 10-week sprint to #1.

Stay tuned sports fans---this is gonna be fun to watch!!

[carrieidol1]

I know being optimistic often leads to disappointment regarding Carrie's singles and their final chart positions, but the run "Some Break" has had so far is pretty remarkable.

It could very well reach the top 10 tomorrow; after less than 30 days, that's insane! How often does it happen that an artist reaches the top 10 in less than a month?

[Marv]

It happened repeatedly throughout the nineties but slowed dramatically starting in 2003, the year in which the 'Great country chart slowdiwn' came into existence as Lon Helton pointed out in his R&R column back then.

This is an extraordinary chart performance, all things considered.

[NeRD]

Looks like smooth sailing into Top 10.


Has become my favorite lead single by her along with Jesus Take the Wheel. :)

[onebuffalo]

Sept 17, 2015 7:06:04 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

I know being optimistic often leads to disappointment regarding Carrie's singles and their final chart positions, but the run "Some Break" has had so far is pretty remarkable.

It could very well reach the top 10 tomorrow; after less than 30 days, that's insane! How often does it happen that an artist reaches the top 10 in less than a month?

Garth Brooks did it with More Than A Memory.

[carrieidol1]

Sept 17, 2015 10:12:51 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Sept 17, 2015 7:06:04 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

I know being optimistic often leads to disappointment regarding Carrie's singles and their final chart positions, but the run "Some Break" has had so far is pretty remarkable.

It could very well reach the top 10 tomorrow; after less than 30 days, that's insane! How often does it happen that an artist reaches the top 10 in less than a month?

Garth Brooks did it with More Than A Memory.

He debuted at #1, though. That was an outlier in terms of the airplay chart, I'm asking in terms of normal chart runs, not comeback songs after years of "retirement".

[jptexas]

19 13 Up this week CARRIE UNDERWOOD Smoke Break 4814 3695 1119 33.68

1119 spins, damn

[countrygirl918]

The thing with Carrie singles is she usually has a smooth run into the top 10, and then slows dramatically once she gets into the top 10. Though this run has been extra remarkable so far, I'm still reserving excitement until I see how it does once in the top 10. Will her label slow it down to benefit her labelmates as they usually do?

[Deleted]

Sept 17, 2015 10:28:44 GMT -5 jptexas said:

19 13 Up this week CARRIE UNDERWOOD Smoke Break 4814 3695 1119 33.68

1119 spins, damn

The "1119" number is simply the increase from last week at this time. She's actually up to 4814 total spins.

[Marv]

Up to #12 passing labelmates Old Dominion's great debut single, and all set to pass Sam Hunt's latest today.

Keep on truvkin' Carrie!

[Carriefan1190]

Is this one of her fastest singles to go top 10? Minus CC, this seems to be her fastest rising single yet.

[carrieidol1]

One month to the day into its release, "Smoke Break" has cracked the Mediabase top 10. Pretty remarkable... I'm just hoping for continued smooth sailing all the way to #1!

[sabre14]

Sept 20, 2015 8:21:48 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

One month to the day into its release, "Smoke Break" has cracked the Mediabase top 10. Pretty remarkable... I'm just hoping for continued smooth sailing all the way to #1!

Yeah, it looks like Carrie barely edged Cole for that #10 spot. She'll be officially top 10 later today.

[Marv]

When a Carrie Underwood song reaches the top ten TWO weeks faster than a Luke Bryan song (Strip It Down reached the top 10 in its sixth week as Bob Kingsley's stated yesterday on CT40), that little tidbit is reason to celebrate.

She'll pass the Thomas Rhett trainwreck later this week before doing likewise to the equally wretched Chris Janssom tune next week.

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2015 13:07:33 GMT -5 Marv said:

When a Carrie Underwood song reaches the top ten TWO weeks faster than a Luke Bryan song (Strip It Down reached the top 10 in its sixth week as Bob Kingsley's stated yesterday on CT40), that little tidbit is reason to celebrate.

She'll pass the Thomas Rhett trainwreck later this week before doing likewise to the equally wretched Chris Janson tune next week.

She's also closing in fast on Maddie & Tae and Chase Rice is probably gonna get past within a few weeks. It's amazing how fast Carrie is going.