Marv
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Post by Marv on Sept 21, 2015 1:18:10 GMT -5
She made the top 10 by a mere 24 points, and I also expect her to eventually pass Maddie & Tae even if it takes most of the week for her to get it done.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2015 19:19:17 GMT -5
Up to #65 on the Hot 100 this week. Go Carrie!  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 8:17:36 GMT -5
Here's an excerpt from the Mediabase building chart as of today:
Rank Spins
lw TW Artist - Title (Label) TW LW
6 6 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes (Republic Nashville) 1694 1593
7 7 MADDIE & TAE - Fly (Dot) 1601 1587
8 8 RICE, CHASE - Gonna Wanna Tonight (Columbia Nashville) 1626 1599
9 9 OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him (RCA Nashville) 1545 1417
10 10 UNDERWOOD, CARRIE - Smoke Break (19/Arista Nashville) 1525 1431
11 11 RHETT, THOMAS - Crash And Burn (Valory) 1484 2124
12 12 SWINDELL, COLE - Let Me See Ya Girl (Warner Bros./WMN) 1541 1485
Looks like the plan will be to push both Chase and Old Dominion ahead of Carrie. The wild card in this mix becomes Cole Swindell's "Let Me See Ya Girl." Will Cole re-pass Carrie if "Smoke Break" slows down in the Top 10? I guess we'll find out.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 22, 2015 16:58:26 GMT -5
Slowing her down would be stupid. Old Dominion and Chase Rice have much older songs and with Kenny hitting #1, she will be the sole artist from Sony in top 10 so nothing should stop her this time to hit #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 17:16:18 GMT -5
Slowing her down would be stupid. Old Dominion and Chase Rice have much older songs and with Kenny hitting #1, she will be the sole artist from Sony in top 10 so nothing should stop her this time to hit #1. Chase and Old Dominion are Sony artists. (Well, Chase isn't officially signed to Sony, but he's hired Columbia Nashville for radio promotion so when it comes to airplay charts he's treated equally to a Sony artist.) OD will be Top 10 two weeks from now at the latest, quite possibly next week depending on Thomas Rhett and Maddie & Tae. I don't know for sure that Sony will slow Carrie down again, but from the first two days of the Mediabase week it seems like this may be the plan. Not quite sure why they'd feel the need to push Old Dominion ahead, though. Their song "Break up with Him" is doing just fine and would have no trouble hitting the top after "Smoke Break." Chase, on the other hand, needs all the help he can get here. His song "Gonna Wanna Tonight" is going on a year old, lol. By this point, we have a very ironic situation quite similar to what we are seeing with "Anything Goes" and "Fly." Carrie's fate depends on how smoothly Chase can climb through the Top 10, so while Carrie and Chase are starkly contrasted and I doubt they have a single fan in common, Carrie Underwood fans may find themselves hoping for GWT to do well and get to #1 as quickly as possible so as not to jeopardize Carrie's chances of hitting the top. The worse Chase does, the worse Carrie will do, as ridiculous as that is. That's the country airplay charts for you.  |
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 22, 2015 18:37:02 GMT -5
Slowing her down would be stupid. Old Dominion and Chase Rice have much older songs and with Kenny hitting #1, she will be the sole artist from Sony in top 10 so nothing should stop her this time to hit #1. Well she's made the top 10 in 5 weeks already, and even A-listers usually have singles lasting 12-14 weeks on the chart, so it doesn't make too much sense to skyrocket her to the top of the chart, unless they're prepared to fight for a Multi-week #1 like "Homegrown". They still need to make sure this gets a decent amount weeks with Max airplay so they can increase the single sales as much as they can. I'm sure ideally they'd love to hit #1 around the 11th week or so and get two weeks at top, but she does have some big names ahead of her with Luke and FGL, so it might make sense to leave some space behind them so she doesn't get blocked from #1. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Sept 23, 2015 8:36:33 GMT -5
What is really holding Carrie songs back these days is streaming. "SB" is #7 in sales and #9 in airplay, yet not even top 15 in streaming. I think that has been true of her last few singles.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 23, 2015 9:23:07 GMT -5
What is really holding Carrie songs back these days is streaming. "SB" is #7 in sales and #9 in airplay, yet not even top 15 in streaming. I think that has been true of her last few singles. Not sure about that. Streaming plays an integral part in the new HCS chart, which SITW topped for seven weeks. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Sept 23, 2015 9:32:15 GMT -5
What is really holding Carrie songs back these days is streaming. "SB" is #7 in sales and #9 in airplay, yet not even top 15 in streaming. I think that has been true of her last few singles. Not sure about that. Streaming plays an integral part in the new HCS chart, which SITW topped for seven weeks. Its streams were still behind its sales and airplay, though. |
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Sept 23, 2015 10:58:17 GMT -5
She's on track to pass the EXTREMELY appropriately titled 'Crash And Burn' by Friday morning, with Chris Janson next in line for her to pass sometime next week.
If she passes Maddie & Far by week's end, so much the better, although at this juncture I do expect 'Fly' to reach the top 5 at Mediabase given the normal chart attrition of this era.
She remains some 800 spins ahead of Blake as of now, and since I expect both of them to reach the penthouse, whomever gets there first really doesn't matter as I stated earlier.
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Sept 24, 2015 15:20:56 GMT -5
I finally watched the video for this. My goodness, Carrie is just getting more and more GORGEOUS every year! It is not a groundbreaking video by any means, but I do not think it was meant to. This is not a song that requires much spectacle. The video looks good, and is simple, which is exactly what this song needed.
Also, does anyone know the song that was playing on her radio at the beginning of this video? Could it have been a sneak preview of "Renegade Runaway"?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2015 15:37:24 GMT -5
I finally watched the video for this. My goodness, Carrie is just getting more and more GORGEOUS every year! It is not a groundbreaking video by any means, but I do not think it was meant to. This is not a song that requires much spectacle. The video looks good, and is simple, which is exactly what this song needed. Also, does anyone know the song that was playing on her radio at the beginning of this video? Could it have been a sneak preview of "Renegade Runaway"? Yes, the snippet playing at the beginning is indeed "Renegade Runaway."  |
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 24, 2015 18:24:45 GMT -5
Sold 22k last week for a total of 131k thus far. It's rising on iTunes again.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Sept 24, 2015 19:38:48 GMT -5
I don't understand the apparent confusion about the song at the start of the video. Does it not feature the words "renegade" and "runaway" in it? What other song would it be? What am I missing?
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 24, 2015 21:58:49 GMT -5
I don't understand the apparent confusion about the song at the start of the video. Does it not feature the words "renegade" and "runaway" in it? What other song would it be? What am I missing? There's literally no apparent confusion anywhere. bboat11 asked a valid question, and someone answered it. That's generally how information gets passed along to other people, interestingly enough. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Sept 24, 2015 22:03:18 GMT -5
I don't understand the apparent confusion about the song at the start of the video. Does it not feature the words "renegade" and "runaway" in it? What other song would it be? What am I missing? There's literally no apparent confusion anywhere. bboat11 asked a valid question, and someone answered it. That's generally how information gets passed along to other people, interestingly enough. Slow your roll. I've seen people posting things like, "If that is 'Renegade Runaway'" or whatever. Multiple people have asked if it's the song, meaning they aren't sure. So, there is confusion to an extent. |
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 24, 2015 22:06:33 GMT -5
There's literally no apparent confusion anywhere. bboat11 asked a valid question, and someone answered it. That's generally how information gets passed along to other people, interestingly enough. Slow your roll. I've seen people posting things like, "If that is 'Renegade Runaway'" or whatever. Multiple people have asked if it's the song, meaning they aren't sure. So, there is confusion to an extent. Well, the only thing I've seen of that on here is that question above, so your response seemed snarky. Apologies if I misconstrued the tone (welcome to the internet), but maybe people aren't as attentive as others, and most probably don't care either way, so asking (repeatedly) is a-okay. |
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bboat11
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Post by bboat11 on Sept 25, 2015 2:03:21 GMT -5
I don't understand the apparent confusion about the song at the start of the video. Does it not feature the words "renegade" and "runaway" in it? What other song would it be? What am I missing? No, the line only features "runaway, runaway" a few times. If the word "Renegade" had been mentioned it would have been a dead giveaway But considering the fact that "Renegade Runaway" has not been released anywhere yet (and I have not seen Carrie live, so I have no idea if she is performing it or what it sounds like if she is) it is perfectly reasonable to wonder what the song is. "Run away" is a pretty ambiguous phrase, and could be used in literally any of her new songs. I figured it was RR, but I thought I would see if anyone here knew for sure. No confusion, just curiosity about whether anyone had any knowledge to confirm the conclusion I had drawn for myself. |
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 29, 2015 16:02:05 GMT -5
Now that this is in the top 10, it has appeared to have slowed down now. I expect after this week for Brett to take a week, then Luke, then FGL, then its between Cole, Maddie & Tae, Carrie and depending on how Chase and OD perform, them too. I would imagine Sony is attempting to coincide SB peaking at #1 with the release of Storyteller, which is less than a month away. I see her realistically hitting #1 in late October to early November.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2015 16:37:04 GMT -5
I was expecting something along the lines of the following:
October 3-4: "Save It for a Rainy Day"
October 10-11: "Lose My Mind"
October 17-18: "Gonna Wanna Tonight" and/or "Strip It Down" (maybe split #1s)
October 24-25: "Strip It Down"
October 31-November 1: "Anything Goes" (potential threat from "Break up with Him")
I don't expect "Fly" to come close to #1, or even climb much higher up the charts at all, as it's just been passed by way too many songs in the top-10. I actually anticipate #8 will be Maddie & Tae's peak position. After Florida Georgia Line hits #1, we'll see what order Old Dominion, Cole, Carrie, and maybe Dan + Shay are in.
I'd estimate Carrie for a mid-November peak date. But Old Dominion's Carrie Underwood's label-mate, so she won't be able to hit #1 until after "Break up with Him" gets there. The minor risk here is that if Carrie is stalled too much in the top-10 for her label-mates, Warner's train of songs that are right behind Carrie ("Let Me See Ya Girl," "Nothin' Like You," "Gonna") could interfere, as the Mediabase building chart shows even Dan + Shay getting rather close to "Smoke Break" this week. And I'd imagine Warner is a bit p'ed at Sony for blocking "Buy Me a Boat," so I don't expect Warner to continue making itself a doormat for other record labels by playing nice with Sony the way it has in the past. But so far, we haven't seen any signs of SB slowing down.
I will say that it seems like Sony has mastered working the Billboard chart really well. We saw Kenny Chesney hit #1 on Billboard two weeks before he got there on Mediabase, and on last night's Billboard chart we saw that Old Dominion was way closer behind Florida Georgia Line than they were on Mediabase, and Cole Swindell was way further behind Carrie than he is on Mediabase. So I do fear Sony may do some maneuvering here to get their artists multiple weeks at #1. It's possible OD could block FGL on Billboard and Carrie could block Cole on Billboard. "Anything Goes" and "Let Me See Ya Girl" would both be Mediabase-only #1s, while "Break up with Him" and "Smoke Break" would get two weeks at #1 on Billboard. I really hope this doesn't happen, though, and it still seems like quite a stretch.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 29, 2015 17:05:06 GMT -5
I have high hopes for the new CEO. He's proved that he's not messing around with Rainy Day getting a multi-week #1. Now the test is that, is he invested in Carrie as well, or will she be the sacrificial lamb so to speak when it comes to the Old Dominion/Chase Rice/Carrie all being in the top 10. Carrie does have fact that Smoke Break is in its 6th week now, so it's the youngest song in the top 10, so it has time to grow. I agree with a mid-November peak, that would put it around 13-14 weeks old and gives time for Brett, Luke, and FGL to all hit #1. Just the fact that Chase Rice has his first top 10 is great and with his song being nearly a year old, I don't see it going past like #4 or #3 at best. Old Dominion, I see probably succeeding FGL at #1, with Carrie to follow, then Cole. If they do what they did in the past and played super nice and let everyone zoom past them, Smoke Break won't have a chance at #1.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 29, 2015 18:58:39 GMT -5
I have high hopes for the new CEO. He's proved that he's not messing around with Rainy Day getting a multi-week #1. Now the test is that, is he invested in Carrie as well, or will she be the sacrificial lamb so to speak when it comes to the Old Dominion/Chase Rice/Carrie all being in the top 10. Carrie does have fact that Smoke Break is in its 6th week now, so it's the youngest song in the top 10, so it has time to grow. I agree with a mid-November peak, that would put it around 13-14 weeks old and gives time for Brett, Luke, and FGL to all hit #1. Just the fact that Chase Rice has his first top 10 is great and with his song being nearly a year old, I don't see it going past like #4 or #3 at best. Old Dominion, I see probably succeeding FGL at #1, with Carrie to follow, then Cole. If they do what they did in the past and played super nice and let everyone zoom past them, Smoke Break won't have a chance at #1. Not to nitpick, but it's actually Chase's second top 10 hit and will also probably be his second top 5 hit. |
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 30, 2015 12:02:00 GMT -5
I have high hopes for the new CEO. He's proved that he's not messing around with Rainy Day getting a multi-week #1. Now the test is that, is he invested in Carrie as well, or will she be the sacrificial lamb so to speak when it comes to the Old Dominion/Chase Rice/Carrie all being in the top 10. Carrie does have fact that Smoke Break is in its 6th week now, so it's the youngest song in the top 10, so it has time to grow. I agree with a mid-November peak, that would put it around 13-14 weeks old and gives time for Brett, Luke, and FGL to all hit #1. Just the fact that Chase Rice has his first top 10 is great and with his song being nearly a year old, I don't see it going past like #4 or #3 at best. Old Dominion, I see probably succeeding FGL at #1, with Carrie to follow, then Cole. If they do what they did in the past and played super nice and let everyone zoom past them, Smoke Break won't have a chance at #1. Not to nitpick, but it's actually Chase's second top 10 hit and will also probably be his second top 5 hit. Oh my bad. I must've forgot Ready Set Roll hit the top 10. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Sept 30, 2015 20:30:51 GMT -5
This label stuff is so annoying and renders radio peaks pointless.
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leilamaurizia
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Post by leilamaurizia on Oct 7, 2015 1:37:15 GMT -5
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Post by fe_lipeoliveira on Oct 7, 2015 8:57:00 GMT -5
I was brought to this world to see Emmylou enjoying some Carrie lol
Nice.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 8, 2015 18:21:26 GMT -5
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 9, 2015 9:30:48 GMT -5
Why did the bottom drop out of this song? It has stalled for a few weeks now. Label stuff, right? Why should we even pay attention to the airplay chart when the labels control them so much?
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 10, 2015 18:39:54 GMT -5
Why did the bottom drop out of this song? It has stalled for a few weeks now. Label stuff, right? Why should we even pay attention to the airplay chart when the labels control them so much? The song is in its 7th week right now, I wouldn't panic. It surged ahead quickly due to it being a lead single and normally when a song hits top 10, it does tend to slow as the top 5 are in power rotation and everyone is fighting for spins. I guarantee within 6-7 weeks, Carrie will hit the top of the airplay charts, but the dust does need to clear out first, now that Kenny is finally dropping down, they will probably be getting Chase to #1 first, then focus on Carrie. She is doing just fine, no negative updates, its just coasting along nicely. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2015 22:23:39 GMT -5
I need to quit writing in this thread. I'm getting quoted over on carriefans.com lol.
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