Carrie Underwood - "Smoke Break"

[spencer]

Oct 21, 2015 16:12:03 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Oct 21, 2015 15:37:18 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

Ok now the dust has settled and it looks like to me that Carrie has 4 weeks until she hits #1. It appears that Sony will be getting OD to #1 first which is fine since SB is young. Here's how it will go:

FGL
Cole Swindell
OD
Carrie Underwood

This is probably the best position she's been in as far as going to the top goes. The next nearest song from Carrie is Dan + Shay and they are at least 3 million behind on mediabase from her, probably a similar gap on Billboard, so I would say SB has a 99% chance of getting the BB AirPlay #1 in 4 weeks.

I hope you're right. That means it will take Smoke Break thirteen weeks to hit the top, Carrie Underwood's first #1 in three years (her longest gap since first topping the chart in 2006). Not the break neck speed she took Cowboy Casanova to #1 in 2009 (ten weeks).

Yeah, but that was a good 6 years ago. Things change, especially in the Country music genre. The winds have shifted on country charts and even with that SB is still one of if not the youngest song in the top 5. And that's only because it's been placed on an unrequested smoke break so that country radio can do it's thing.........whatever one wants to call it.

[Marv]

On March 1st, 2002, 'The Cowboy In Me' began a three-week run at #1 @ R&R in its 13th week on the chart as Tim replaced labelmate Steve Holy who needed TWENTY-SIX weeks to reach the penthouse with 'Good Morning Beautiful'.
,
FWIW, those two standout singles finished ninth and third respectively for the entire year on the year-end Mediabase/R&R chart.

Nowadays any tune reaching number one in 13 weeks or less including 'Cowboy Casanova, which only needed 10 weeks still constitutes a superstar level chart run any way you slice it.

Consequently even if 'Smoke Break' reaches the top in 15 weeks, that would match the 15-week trek to #1 for one of this decade's VERY best singles---'The Hôuse That Built Me'.

[Carriefan1190]

I believe Sony is going for the MB #1 with OD. They are pushing pretty hard. Once FGL and OD peak on Monday they will fall hard, leaving Cole and Carrie to jump into the top 2.

[Deleted]

Oct 28, 2015 10:15:03 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

I believe Sony is going for the MB #1 with OD. They are pushing pretty hard. Once FGL and OD peak on Monday they will fall hard, leaving Cole and Carrie to jump into the top 2.

There is one part of your theory that is a little off. If you look at the Country Countdown USA Old Dominion still has a little bit before they co-host CCUSA with Lon Helton so I think Old Dominion is going to spend a couple of weeks at the top probably blocking FGL and possibly Cole. Then Carrie Underwood will move in once all 3 of those guys clear out.

[dm2081]

Oct 28, 2015 10:15:03 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

I believe Sony is going for the MB #1 with OD. They are pushing pretty hard. Once FGL and OD peak on Monday they will fall hard, leaving Cole and Carrie to jump into the top 2.

Looking at today's update, It seems pretty obvious that FGL will get the #1 on MB, so I'm thinking they'll get 1 week at #1 on MB with OD moving up the next week.  OD could get 2 weeks on Billboard it seems.

[hosssulpizio]

I hope "Smoke Break" will be a number one single in a few weeks.

[Carriefan1190]

Well they are so close points-wise. I just don't see OD blocking Cole. His song has been charging up the charts. I just hope they don't stall Smoke Break for too long. Dan + Shay, Blake and Jason are starting to pick up steam.

[Marv]

Carrie will pass Luke today or tomorrow and is still 1,300+ spins ahead of Blake, so I'm not worried about him.

[krud489]

Do u think Carrie has a chance at a 2 week #1 here? SB is really young, she's got some breathing room and it doesn't seem like SN has even touched the gas pedal yet. Just wondering the experts thoughts here lol.

[Carriefan1190]

After having a chance to sit down and review the data, it has become clear to me that after this week, FGL and Old Dominion will have peaked. Here's why:

lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
2 1 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Anything Goes 7989 7543 446 53.267
3 2 OLD DOMINION Break Up With Him 7992 7533 459 51.592
4 3 COLE SWINDELL Let Me See Ya Girl 7821 7299 522 52.354
1 4 LUKE BRYAN Strip It Down 7444 8218 -774 49.890
5 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Smoke Break 7380 6922 458 48.176

While Old Dominion is ahead of FGL by a mere 3 spins, you will notice that Cole's AI is now 800k higher than OD's. Even though MB's AI is different from Billboard's, the gaps probably aren't far off. What will happen is that there will be a split #1. FGL will take the Billboard #1 and OD will take the MB #1. Both will begin to freefall by probably Tuesday, and Cole will slide into the top spot and take both charts next weekend.....and then there's Carrie. With OD falling down the charts, Sony will probably be putting the pedal to the metal so to speak, to get Carrie near where she needs to be to overtake Cole, once Cole has hit the top and begins to decline. This puts Carrie's possible #1 trajectory at 2 weeks from this upcoming Monday, but this all depends on whether or not anyone takes a 2nd week at the top, which I don't see any of the top 3 doing at this point.

[matty005]

Oct 29, 2015 17:46:21 GMT -5 Kat5Kind said:

Oct 29, 2015 17:38:04 GMT -5 matty005 said:

Maybe some people like different music than you like. Just a hunch.

Lord knows I'm one of them! :)

As am I! But I totally understand not everyone loves the music/artists I love and I am 100% fine with that. What drives me absolutely bonkers is when people can't understand how others have different tastes than them?

I am ready for this to peak at #1 and they release an uptempo next. Plenty of great songs to choose from. I actually think Smoke Break is one of the weaker songs and I still like it quite a bit. Very strong album from Carrie.

[Deleted]

I guess I block it out, lol. I just see a majority of negative comments. Sorry for straying from Carrie.

[Marv]

BuffaloCountry isn't 'pushing' FGL under any circumstances; he's merely updating the BB record books/archives.

Nothing more, nothing less, and I'm looking forward to Carrie rising to #3 or perhaps #2 next week.

[43dudleyvillas]

Folks, I just moved a bunch of posts that had absolutely nothing to do with "Smoke Break" to the Florida-Georgia Line, "Anything Goes" thread. The result is a bit of a hatchet job on the recent conversation in this thread, but on the bright side, it stays on topic -- something you folks should be more mindful of doing in the future.

Oct 29, 2015 16:29:08 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

After having a chance to sit down and review the data, it has become clear to me that after this week, FGL and Old Dominion will have peaked. Here's why:

lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
2 1 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Anything Goes 7989 7543 446 53.267
3 2 OLD DOMINION Break Up With Him 7992 7533 459 51.592
4 3 COLE SWINDELL Let Me See Ya Girl 7821 7299 522 52.354
1 4 LUKE BRYAN Strip It Down 7444 8218 -774 49.890
5 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Smoke Break 7380 6922 458 48.176

While Old Dominion is ahead of FGL by a mere 3 spins, you will notice that Cole's AI is now 800k higher than OD's. Even though MB's AI is different from Billboard's, the gaps probably aren't far off.

The Mediabase and Billboard gaps aren't working quite the way you think. Here were the Mediabase audience impressions for FGL, Old Dominion and Cole in this past Monday's update (for the seven-day period ending on 25 October, in other words, to match with the Billboard airplay week):

"Anything Goes": 52.200 million (+1.82 million for the seven-day week)
"Break Up with Him": 49.790 million (+5.261 million for the seven-day week)
"Let Me See Ya Girl": 49.982 million (+3.181 million for the seven-day week)

Here were the Billboard audience numbers for the same timeframe:

"Anything Goes": 45.071 million (+1.643 million for the seven-day week)
"Break Up with Him: 45.438 million (+3.413 million for the seven-day week)
"Let Me See Ya Girl": 44.453 million (+3.264 million for the seven-day week)

As you can see, the audience impressions and their week-on-week change doesn't follow a set pattern when it comes to translating from Mediabase to Billboard. "Break Up with Him" has the strongest overall translation of Mediabase audience to Billboard of the top-three songs while "Anything Goes" has the weakest of the top-three songs, but "Break Up with Him"'s Mediabase audience gains last week showed the weakest Billboard translation. Still, "Break Up with Him" has led on the Billboard real-time tracker this whole week. It's unusual for labels to settle for a Billboard-only #1, too, and Columbia Nashville would likely prefer to have the #1 country single to go with Old Dominion's album release next week.

So I agree with dm2081 that we're likely looking at a two-week Billboard #1, one-week Mediabase #1 for "Break Up With Him." Cole Swindell will follow at #1 on both charts for the calendar week ending 14-15 November 2015, and then, as long as "Smoke Break" can hold off "Nothin' Like You," it will be "Smoke Break"'s turn for the calendar week ending 21-22 November 2015.

The fact that Carrie is co-hosting Country Countdown USA on 14-15 November will give her the Mediabase/Aircheck bump for the Mediabase chart week ending 21 November 2015, and we'll see if Arista Nashville does anything to get "Smoke Break" the Billboard Country Airplay #1 for that week, too. "Smoke Break" has had a pretty flat week this week as it awaits power conversions (for top-three rotation), so Arista Nashville has work to do to make sure those kick in for "Smoke Break" in time to keep it ahead of "Nothin' Like You."

[Deleted]

Oct 30, 2015 9:40:14 GMT -5 43dudleyvillas said:

Folks, I just moved a bunch of posts that had absolutely nothing to do with "Smoke Break" to the Florida-Georgia Line, "Anything Goes" thread. The result is a bit of a hatchet job on the recent conversation in this thread, but on the bright side, it stays on topic -- something you folks should be more mindful of doing in the future.

Oct 29, 2015 16:29:08 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

After having a chance to sit down and review the data, it has become clear to me that after this week, FGL and Old Dominion will have peaked. Here's why:

lw TW Artist Title TW lw Move
2 1 FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE Anything Goes 7989 7543 446 53.267
3 2 OLD DOMINION Break Up With Him 7992 7533 459 51.592
4 3 COLE SWINDELL Let Me See Ya Girl 7821 7299 522 52.354
1 4 LUKE BRYAN Strip It Down 7444 8218 -774 49.890
5 5 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Smoke Break 7380 6922 458 48.176

While Old Dominion is ahead of FGL by a mere 3 spins, you will notice that Cole's AI is now 800k higher than OD's. Even though MB's AI is different from Billboard's, the gaps probably aren't far off.

The Mediabase and Billboard gaps aren't working quite the way you think. Here were the Mediabase audience impressions for FGL, Old Dominion and Cole in this past Monday's update (for the seven-day period ending on 25 October, in other words, to match with the Billboard airplay week):

"Anything Goes": 52.200 million (+1.82 million for the seven-day week)
"Break Up with Him": 49.790 million (+5.261 million for the seven-day week)
"Let Me See Ya Girl": 49.982 million (+3.181 million for the seven-day week)

Here were the Billboard audience numbers for the same timeframe:

"Anything Goes": 45.071 million (+1.643 million for the seven-day week)
"Break Up with Him: 45.438 million (+3.413 million for the seven-day week)
"Let Me See Ya Girl": 44.453 million (+3.264 million for the seven-day week)

As you can see, the audience impressions and their week-on-week change doesn't follow a set pattern when it comes to translating from Mediabase to Billboard. "Break Up with Him" has the strongest overall translation of Mediabase audience to Billboard of the top-three songs while "Anything Goes" has the weakest of the top-three songs, but "Break Up with Him"'s Mediabase audience gains last week showed the weakest Billboard translation. Still, "Break Up with Him" has led on the Billboard real-time tracker this whole week. It's unusual for labels to settle for a Billboard-only #1, too, and Columbia Nashville would likely prefer to have the #1 country single to go with Old Dominion's album release next week.

So I agree with dm2081 that we're likely looking at a two-week Billboard #1, one-week Mediabase #1 for "Break Up With Him." Cole Swindell will follow at #1 on both charts for the calendar week ending 14-15 November 2015, and then, as long as "Smoke Break" can hold off "Nothin' Like You," it will be "Smoke Break"'s turn for the calendar week ending 21-22 November 2015.

The fact that Carrie is co-hosting Country Countdown USA on 14-15 November will give her the Mediabase/Aircheck bump for the Mediabase chart week ending 21 November 2015, and we'll see if Arista Nashville does anything to get "Smoke Break" the Billboard Country Airplay #1 for that week, too. "Smoke Break" has had a pretty flat week this week as it awaits power conversions (for top-three rotation), so Arista Nashville has work to do to make sure those kick in for "Smoke Break" in time to keep it ahead of "Nothin' Like You."

I agree with you until you said Cole Swindell will get a week at the top. Cole isn't too far off Old Dominion and FGL if my estimations serve me right. I think Cole is going to attempt next week to take BB and MB from Old Dominion if he succeeds than Old Dominion go for a third BB week and a MB #1 finally. If there is one thing that would help Carrie right now is if Chris Young passes Dan + Shay so Dan + Shay are held back from Carrie just my theory 

[Carriefan1190]

I'm sorry but I'm going to disagree with the consensus that OD will be a 2-week #1. The competition is getting closer and there's no way any of the 3 will get a 2nd week, regardless of who hits the top. I'm sticking with my prediction that FGL and OD are both in push week and will peak on Monday and then Cole will take the top, because Carrie is starting to run out of time. Dan + Shay, Chris Young and Blake Shelton are gaining on Carrie here, and Sony really needs to pull the plug on OD if Carrie has any shot at the #1.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2015 13:26:32 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

I'm sorry but I'm going to disagree with the consensus that OD will be a 2-week #1. The competition is getting closer and there's no way any of the 3 will get a 2nd week, regardless of who hits the top. I'm sticking with my prediction that FGL and OD are both in push week and will peak on Monday and then Cole will take the top, because Carrie is starting to run out of time. Dan + Shay, Chris Young and Blake Shelton are gaining on Carrie here, and Sony really needs to pull the plug on OD if Carrie has any shot at the #1.

But I am failing to see how Old Dominion is going to be falling next week. They co-host CCUSA about a week from now that indicates that at the latest Old Dominion will stop pushing at the end of next week. The competition aka Cole Swindell is closing in but he's the only one close on Old Dominion heels but around this time next week he will lose the CCUSA spins and Old Dominion will gain those (of course provided the off chance that Cole is the hottest song in the Top 5 for next weeks show in which case they are both cancelled out) but Old Dominion is at least getting pushed into next week. 

Now since this is supposed to be talking about Smoke Break now is the time for me to address how Smoke Break can hit the top it won't be too complicated all Carrie has to do is hold off Dan + Shay, there song is ridiculously old so I don't see them passing Carrie but I do think before Old Dominion, Cole Swindell and FGL clear out Sony needs to get Chris Young ahead of Dan + Shay. Blake Shelton is a non factor at this point his song still isn't selling well and he's co-hosting CCUSA right after Carrie so I don't see Blake getting the BB #1 as I think Chris Young will block him out.

[krud489]

It always seems Carrie runs into some sort of obstacle when she's pushing towards the top. Usually its by her own label helping a labelmate. Sony has been aggressive in favor of all their artists. Let's hope they do it for her as well. Doesn't SB being young play to its advantage somewhat?

[Carriefan1190]

Oct 31, 2015 14:06:11 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

Oct 31, 2015 13:26:32 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

I'm sorry but I'm going to disagree with the consensus that OD will be a 2-week #1. The competition is getting closer and there's no way any of the 3 will get a 2nd week, regardless of who hits the top. I'm sticking with my prediction that FGL and OD are both in push week and will peak on Monday and then Cole will take the top, because Carrie is starting to run out of time. Dan + Shay, Chris Young and Blake Shelton are gaining on Carrie here, and Sony really needs to pull the plug on OD if Carrie has any shot at the #1.

But I am failing to see how Old Dominion is going to be falling next week. They co-host CCUSA about a week from now that indicates that at the latest Old Dominion will stop pushing at the end of next week. The competition aka Cole Swindell is closing in but he's the only one close on Old Dominion heels but around this time next week he will lose the CCUSA spins and Old Dominion will gain those (of course provided the off chance that Cole is the hottest song in the Top 5 for next weeks show in which case they are both cancelled out) but Old Dominion is at least getting pushed into next week. 

Now since this is supposed to be talking about Smoke Break now is the time for me to address how Smoke Break can hit the top it won't be too complicated all Carrie has to do is hold off Dan + Shay, there song is ridiculously old so I don't see them passing Carrie but I do think before Old Dominion, Cole Swindell and FGL clear out Sony needs to get Chris Young ahead of Dan + Shay. Blake Shelton is a non factor at this point his song still isn't selling well and he's co-hosting CCUSA right after Carrie so I don't see Blake getting the BB #1 as I think Chris Young will block him out.

Old Dominion has been rapidly moving up the charts for the last 2 weeks. The song is older, plus you can tell by the numbers that its clearly being pushed to get the MB #1. Labels usually try to plan when the song will go for the #1 and schedule the CCUSA appearance accordingly, but I'm thinking in this case that they saw an opportunity to get to #1 and they took it. CCUSA appearances don't always correspond with #1 pushes. But yes, since this is Carrie's thread, She still looks good, as she is just coasting right now and letting the top 3 battle it out. However, if a song by Dan + Shay were to pass her, it would be a disaster. Carrie has missed the top on the last 4 singles and she needs to peak at #1 this time around.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2015 15:36:00 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

Oct 31, 2015 14:06:11 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

But I am failing to see how Old Dominion is going to be falling next week. They co-host CCUSA about a week from now that indicates that at the latest Old Dominion will stop pushing at the end of next week. The competition aka Cole Swindell is closing in but he's the only one close on Old Dominion heels but around this time next week he will lose the CCUSA spins and Old Dominion will gain those (of course provided the off chance that Cole is the hottest song in the Top 5 for next weeks show in which case they are both cancelled out) but Old Dominion is at least getting pushed into next week. 

Now since this is supposed to be talking about Smoke Break now is the time for me to address how Smoke Break can hit the top it won't be too complicated all Carrie has to do is hold off Dan + Shay, there song is ridiculously old so I don't see them passing Carrie but I do think before Old Dominion, Cole Swindell and FGL clear out Sony needs to get Chris Young ahead of Dan + Shay. Blake Shelton is a non factor at this point his song still isn't selling well and he's co-hosting CCUSA right after Carrie so I don't see Blake getting the BB #1 as I think Chris Young will block him out.

Old Dominion has been rapidly moving up the charts for the last 2 weeks. The song is older, plus you can tell by the numbers that its clearly being pushed to get the MB #1. Labels usually try to plan when the song will go for the #1 and schedule the CCUSA appearance accordingly, but I'm thinking in this case that they saw an opportunity to get to #1 and they took it. CCUSA appearances don't always correspond with #1 pushes. But yes, since this is Carrie's thread, She still looks good, as she is just coasting right now and letting the top 3 battle it out. However, if a song by Dan + Shay were to pass her, it would be a disaster. Carrie has missed the top on the last 4 singles and she needs to peak at #1 this time around.

I'm sorry but an artist doesn't need a number #1 I am pretty sure Carrie doesn't lose any sleep over if her songs hit the top and whatever happens, happens like it's not the worst thing if Carrie misses outLook though I just think that Old Dominion will be kept afloat next week to try and secure the MB #1. Unless Break Up With Him becomes a BB only #1 which while I can see I just don't see Sony trying to have just #1 on one chart particularly BB. 

Also I think saying if Dan + Shay pass Carrie it would be a disaster is just being overdramatic I just don't get it myself.

[Carriefan1190]

Yes I agree an artist shouldn't be defined by #1's, but Carrie is way overdue for one. SITW, TBC and LTG should've been #1's. The point I was making that an old song like Dan + Shay's passing her would be a bad sign.

[Deleted]

Oct 31, 2015 15:55:41 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

Yes I agree an artist shouldn't be defined by #1's, but Carrie is way overdue for one. SITW, TBC and LTG should've been #1's. The point I was making that an old song like Dan + Shay's passing her would be a bad sign.

While I agree it would be a bad sign no one's overdue or songs should have been #1s and with the exception of SITW the other 2 you have mentioned were Mediabase #1s so in radios eyes they were #1s. The Mediabase chart matters as well.

[Carriefan1190]

I know it does, but some country publications don't see MB #1's as true ones, even though its mostly based on radio spins, etc. Billboard #1's are somewhat tarnished anyway, but she hasn't had an airplay #1 since 2012, so it would be nice to see her top both charts.

[Marv]

I certainly don't think any artist NEEDS a song to hit #1 under any circumstances whether it be Carrie, Tim, Kenny, King George or any other format superstar.

Lots of standout songs have peaked @ #2 at both country and top 40 radio which while disappointing to fans of those artists certainly doesn't diminish thef any artist at country or top 40 radio for that matter.

[blujayyoungs]

Is she struggling to have a #1 on Billboard??? Nooo

[sabre14]

Oct 31, 2015 21:02:27 GMT -5 blujayyoungs said:

Is she struggling to have a #1 on Billboard??? Nooo

No. This is perfectly normal for a Carrie thread to have different scenarios and worries about her song hitting #1. She's got a pretty sizable gap from the three songs in front of her, as well as behind her. Randy Goodman will make sure his Arista promotion staff gets a #1 on both charts.

[Carriefan1190]

With today's update, I feel much better. It's looking like Chris Young is going to be passing Dan + Shay probably by tomorrow, which others had said was a good thing for Carrie, because it will keep the competition from leapfrogging over her. FGL had a great update today and looks like they will take both charts. OD could hold on for a week on both charts then fall, but we will just have to keep our eyes out for that.

[Deleted]

Nov 1, 2015 12:09:59 GMT -5 Carriefan1190 said:

With today's update, I feel much better. It's looking like Chris Young is going to be passing Dan + Shay probably by tomorrow, which others had said was a good thing for Carrie, because it will keep the competition from leapfrogging over her. FGL had a great update today and looks like they will take both charts. OD could hold on for a week on both charts then fall, but we will just have to keep our eyes out for that.

I just remain unconvinced that Sony is quite done with Old Dominion they are not only going to be co-hosting Country Countdown next week here's the kicker that might really help Old Dominion. Break Up With Him will be the hottest song in the Top 5 so not only do they get those spins they get the possible accoustic spins as well. There is no way it's done yet.

Now here since we are with Carrie Underwood right now here is what I see happening in the upcoming weeks

This week BB Old Dominion MB FGL
Next Week BB Old Dominion or Cole Swindell if OD comes up short MB Cole Swindell      
 
I think analyzing every component of what is likely to happen I can see Old Dominion holding on audience wise compared to Cole Swindell next week. While Cole should easily take MB. Now it comes down to I think does Cole than push for the BB #1 or is he ok with just a MB #1. Now I know that many think Old Dominion won't be able to stay at these levels for long but I think they can at least into next week. Now it's time to factor Carrie into this if Chris Young passes Dan + Shay that's a huge blessing. Now if Chris can't then it gets sticky. Carrie can get the #1 because she's far enough behind Cole, OD, and FGL to wait for all to fall. Now here is where as Lady A would say "You're the blessing and the curse." The 'curse' aspect of it is that Sony needs to make sure that Chris doesn't pass Carrie because that's where uh-oh status might kick in. Chris should be right behind Carrie as a way to cushion the others (Dan + Shay, Blake Shelton), but Chris and Carrie need to keep gaining strong neither one can stop because Dan + Shay aren't stopping.

[sabre14]

KCYY in San Antonio has started spinning "Heartbeat." It was spun 22 times this week, accounting for over 200k of total MB audience. Now this station has played some "non-singles" before in the past (they're still spinning "Games" by Luke Bryan) but I thought it was interesting since they slashed "Smoke Break's" spins by more than double this week as well.

[Deleted]

Got my tickets to see Carrie Underwood on May 24th! :) 7th row too!