Billboard Hot 100 : 09/05/2015

[Ravi]

Top-10 predictions:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Cheerleader	105	145	16.0	41,000
2	Can't Feel My Face	110	160	13.5	40,200
3	Watch Me	85	45	21.0	34,900
4	Lean On	65	118	11.0	29.400
5	The Hills	75	38	13.0	24,500
6	Fight Song	90	92	7.0	24,500
7	Good For You	70	80	8.0	22,700
8	Trap Queen	30	30	14.0	21,000
9	My Way	40	52	11.2	21,000
10	Bad Blood	45	110	5.5	20,900

* It will again be too close to call which will be #1. Streaming will again be the deciding factor.
* Watch Me and Lean on have #3 and #4 locked respectively. Watch Me may hold on to #3 for a few more weeks.
* Battle for #5 will again be very close this week between The Hills and Fight Song (last week, they were virtually tied in points). The Hills is gaining on Airplay whereas Fight Song is climbing on itunes.
* Good For You should be good for #7.
* #8-10 will be occupied by Trap Queen, My Way and Blad Blood in any order.

Outside Top-10:

* 679 will probably climb to #11. And if it can keep its momentum on streaming going, it might even break into Top-10.
* #12-14 will be occupied by See You Again, Shut Up+Dance and Where Are U Now in any order.
* Photograph and Cool For The Summer should hold on to #15 and #16 spots respectively.
* Locked Away is definitely entering Top-20 this week, and will most likely be ranked #17, though it might come a spot or two higher if it has significant gains in streaming. I am calling a Top-10 entry next week.

[wjr15]

I kept thinking that Cheerleader was done at #1 but I guess streaming is what is keeping it at the top. Gonna be close race this week. CFMF just needs to pick up in streaming to take over.

And I really hope Fight Song makes it to #5. Rachel deserves it.

[areyoureadytojump]

^Deserves it? No. I'm not a fan. It's "Heartbest Song" redux.

[wjr15]

Fight Song has been in the Top 5 of iTunes all summer, and #1 at many times. It took radio forever to start playing this a lot but her consistent sales and consistently rising airplay deserves her a spot in the Top 5.

Edit: Fight Song was out before Heartbeat Song was. It was featured on TV at the end of 2014. So in reality, Heartbeat Song is a Fight Song redux

[Dylan :)]

I remember a few weeks back people were discussing Riptide and its amount of charting weeks w/out a very high peak, and I was wondering today - what song has spent the most weeks on the chart without peaking within the top 50?

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

"See you again" is the only song this decade to rule the chart for 2-digit weeks yet wind up having less than 20 weeks of top 10. A miracle.

[Future Captain]

Aug 19, 2015 13:27:56 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

I remember a few weeks back people were discussing Riptide and its amount of charting weeks w/out a very high peak, and I was wondering today - what song has spent the most weeks on the chart without peaking within the top 50?

I think 24 weeks, top? The record for longest time in the chart without going top 40 is Muse's Madness with 29 weeks in while peaking at #46

[Enigma.]

Under current rules, it's basically impossible to spend 30 weeks on the chart and never reach higher than top 50

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2015 12:03:18 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Top-10 predictions:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Cheerleader	105	145	16.0	41,000
2	Can't Feel My Face	110	160	13.5	40,200
3	Watch Me	85	45	21.0	34,900
4	Lean On	65	118	11.0	29.400
5	The Hills	75	38	13.0	24,500
6	Fight Song	90	92	7.0	24,500
7	Good For You	70	80	8.0	22,700
8	Trap Queen	30	30	14.0	21,000
9	My Way	40	52	11.2	21,000
10	Bad Blood	45	110	5.5	20,900

* It will again be too close to call which will be #1. Streaming will again be the deciding factor.
* Watch Me and Lean on have #3 and #4 locked respectively. Watch Me may hold on to #3 for a few more weeks.
* Battle for #5 will again be very close this week between The Hills and Fight Song (last week, they were virtually tied in points). The Hills is gaining on Airplay whereas Fight Song is climbing on itunes.
* Good For You should be good for #7.
* #8-10 will be occupied by Trap Queen, My Way and Blad Blood in any order.

Outside Top-10:

* 679 will probably climb to #11. And if it can keep its momentum on streaming going, it might even break into Top-10.
* #12-14 will be occupied by See You Again, Shut Up+Dance and Where Are U Now in any order.
* Photograph and Cool For The Summer should hold on to #15 and #16 spots respectively.
* Locked Away is definitely entering Top-20 this week, and will most likely be ranked #17, though it might come a spot or two higher if it has significant gains in streaming. I am calling a Top-10 entry next week.

Can't Feel My Face will have a much bigger sales lead over Cheerleader than that. Cheerleader is at less than .85 of CFMF on iTunes right now and has been below .9 since the beginning of the tracking week.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Hahahahaha I'm just waiting for the week where the #1 on digital songs sells less than 100,000 in a week. Looks like it's c-c-c-coooooooooooming!!

[Mikel Echarri]

Songs of the summer Chart (August 29, 2015)

01 01 See You Again, Wiz Khalifa Featuring Charlie Puth
02 03 Cheerleader, OMI
03 02 Bad Blood, Taylor Swift Featuring Kendrick Lamar
04 04 Trap Queen, Fetty Wap
05 05 Watch Me, Silento
06 06 Shut Up And Dance, WALK THE MOON
07 07 Can't Feel My Face, The Weeknd
08 08 Uptown Funk!, Mark Ronson Featuring Bruno Mars
09 14 Lean On, Major Lazer & DJ Snake Featuring M0
10 09 Hey Mama, David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Bebe Rexha & Afrojack
11 12 Fight Song, Rachel Platten
12 10 Honey, I'm Good., Andy Grammer
13 13 Where Are U Now, Skrillex & Diplo With Justin Bieber
14 11 Want To Want Me, Jason Derulo
15 16 The Hills, The Weeknd
16 15 Worth It, Fifth Harmony Featuring Kid Ink
17 17 Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey), The Weeknd
18 18 Sugar, Maroon 5
19 19 Post To Be, Omarion Featuring Chris Brown & Jhene Aiko
20 20 Talking Body, Tove Lo

[Future Captain]

I think you forget about the remix that's usually around 0.1 to CFMF

[lyhom]

I think "Headband" by B.o.B spent 29 weeks on the chart despite only peaking at #53 lmao

[jebsib]

^ This is correct! I forgot BoB spent 29 weeks on, peaking at #53! 9 weeks of growth post purge cut-off...

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 08/20/15

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 189.740 (- 0.424)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 177.311 (+ 0.274)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 143.188 (- 2.250)
4. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 131.098 (+ 1.646)
5. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 124.160 (- 0.792)
6. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 114.569 (- 0.272)
7. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 109.253 (+ 1.005)
8. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 98.021 (- 0.960)
9. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 90.231 (+ 1.922) ▲
10. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 90.166 (- 0.284) ▼
11. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 85.416 (+ 0.402)
12. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 85.045 (+ 0.163)
13. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 84.243 (+ 0.817)
14. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 75.919 (- 1.206) ▲
15. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 75.521 (- 2.350) ▼
16. FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 65.800 (+ 0.475) ▲
17. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 65.069 (- 0.162) ▲
18. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 65.005 (- 1.550) ▼
19. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 64.584 (+ 0.948) ▲
20. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 64.090 (- 0.075) ▼

SAM HUNT - House Party: 63.241 (+ 0.483)
R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 62.444 (+ 2.256)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 56.010 (+ 0.981)
THE WEEKND - The Hills: 44.755 (+ 2.208)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 39.382 (+ 0.560)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 36.938 (+ 0.597)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 34.842 (+ 0.387)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 32.970 (+ 0.122)
5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 30.462 (+ 0.173)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 29.585 (+ 0.284)
JASON DERULO - Cheyenne: 29.393 (+ 0.172)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 29.367 (+ 0.957)
FETTY WAP-679 f/Remy Boyz...: 27.855 (+ 0.650)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 22.418 (+ 0.711)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 20.508 (+ 0.540)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 17.024 (+ 0.154)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Growing Up f/Ed Sheeran: 16.689 (+ 0.750)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 16.352 (+ 0.399)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 14.812 (+ 0.125)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 14.793 (+ 0.158)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 14.663 (+ 0.470)
DRAKE - Back To Back: 12.888 (+ 0.297)
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 12.786 (+ 0.091)
DISCLOSURE - Omen f/Sam Smith: 11.858 (+ 0.216)
NICKY JAM - El Perdon (Forgiveness): 9.551 (+ 0.386)
THE BAND PERRY - Live Forever: 7.149 (+ 0.556)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 4.788 (+ 0.506)
ROBIN THICKE - Back Together f/Nicki Minaj: 3.973 (- 0.047)

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 20, 2015 2:21:48 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Hahahahaha I'm just waiting for the week where the #1 on digital songs sells less than 100,000 in a week. Looks like it's c-c-c-coooooooooooming!!

And?

Were you that excited for the first week cassette tapes weren't the top selling format too? Formats have died in the past, the market changes. C'est la vie. People are still producing and consuming music.

[jebsib]

I wonder if the labels will do something crappy again like not selling albums or cuts as downloads (should the market continue to dwindle)

[imbondz]

Random...anyone know how many weeks in a row a #1 song was replaced after only 1 week?

So how many weeks in a row was there a #1 song with only 1 week at the top?

[Daniel Collins]

Aug 20, 2015 9:52:18 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Random...anyone know how many weeks in a row a #1 song was replaced after only 1 week?

So how many weeks in a row was there a #1 song with only 1 week at the top?

Last quarter of 2010?

[ry4n]

1975

[Daniel Collins]

:O

[Au$tin]

Aug 20, 2015 8:43:19 GMT -5 jebsib said:

I wonder if the labels will do something crappy again like not selling albums or cuts as downloads (should the market continue to dwindle)

I don't think so. The digital age is a totally different monster than just a new format dying out. Digital sales are falling, yes, but they're going to reach a point where they won't fall anymore. There's always going to be people who want to download and store their music rather than relying on streaming sites. This is also why CDs still exist. The transition from physical to digital copies was huge, but CDs still exist because there's always going to be people who want a physical copy. Streaming may become the biggest component of consuming music, but it definitely won't be the only way and never will be. Now if something comes along that tops digital downloading, then it could disappear, but my mind can't even fathom what would top that to make it disappear.

[badrobot]

Sales will continue to atrophy. Streaming will continue to grow. A different consumption method will probably pop up in awhile that'll shift the game again.

[wjr15]

Aug 20, 2015 10:04:01 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Aug 20, 2015 9:52:18 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Random...anyone know how many weeks in a row a #1 song was replaced after only 1 week?

So how many weeks in a row was there a #1 song with only 1 week at the top?

Last quarter of 2010?

One of my favorite times to watch the Hot 100. So many great #1's in such a short time

[Deleted]

I think CFMF will return to #1 this week. Its lead in sales over Cheerleader is growing by the hour (faster than the rate at which the airplay gap is closing).

[85la]

Aug 20, 2015 8:30:41 GMT -5 jebsib said:

^ This is correct! I forgot BoB spent 29 weeks on, peaking at #53! 9 weeks of growth post purge cut-off...

I think you guys are wrong. The recurrent rule definitely used to be that songs ranking below #50 and that spent more than 20 weeks on the chart were automatically removed (although I think they recently changed it to allow exceptions for songs that gain in points after the 20th week). Was not aware that they increased it to 30 weeks.

[jebsib]

1/11/14 - Headband peaked at #53 with 29 weeks.
The most extreme case of songs gaining every week after the 20 week cutoff.

[felipe]

Is streaming as profitable for labels and artists as paid downloads?

[Au$tin]

Aug 20, 2015 18:20:04 GMT -5 felipe said:

Is streaming as profitable for labels and artists as paid downloads?

Doubtful. We've all seen the payload from Spotify.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Downloads arent profitable for artists either. They literally get pennies from a sale. Apple takes 30% off the top too.