Billboard Hot 100 : 09/05/2015

[jarhys]

WOW! Both Can't Feel My Face and Cheerleader are dropping.

[imbondz]

Aug 22, 2015 8:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Aug 22, 2015 0:42:36 GMT -5 Ravi said:

I thought so too..... because last week too, the top 2 versions of CL accounted for 0.90-0.95 of CFMF, but in the end they both ended up selling the same amount.

Also, I wanted to ask, do you assign same weight to all the days when calculating estimates? Because it seems to me that daily sales during Fri-Sun are higher than Mon-Thurs, even more so for songs that have been around for a long time.

I adjust the weights every week after the real sales come in, but yeah the default ones that I use for the preliminary estimate assume more sales during the weekend, cause that's usually how it ends up.

Do you have a spreadsheet that does all the math for you I hope?

[Kworb]

Aug 22, 2015 12:35:04 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Aug 22, 2015 8:40:07 GMT -5 Kworb said:

I adjust the weights every week after the real sales come in, but yeah the default ones that I use for the preliminary estimate assume more sales during the weekend, cause that's usually how it ends up.

Do you have a spreadsheet that does all the math for you I hope?

Nah I wrote it in Java, I'm not a fan of spreadsheets.

[wjr15]

My Hot 100 Prediction:

1. Cheerleader (last week at #1)
2. Can't Feel My Face
3. Watch Me
4. Lean On
5. Fight Song
6. The Hills
7. Trap Queen
8. Good For You
9. My Way
10. Bad Blood or Locked Away

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Is Trap Queen gonna log 30 weeks of top 10?

[Kris]

How the hell is Trap Queen #7 at #41 sales, #51 airplay and #3 streaming? Is streaming weighted THAT high over the other 2?

[Verisimilitude]

Aug 23, 2015 7:34:48 GMT -5 Kris said:

How the hell is Trap Queen #7 at #41 sales, #51 airplay and #3 streaming? Is streaming weighted THAT high over the other 2?

Unfortunately. Streaming is weighted too highly. A #10 on Streaming Songs now has more points than a #1 on Hot Digital Songs. A sad state of affairs. :(

[ry4n]

Top 10 flashbacks for this week

1 year ago (9/6/2014)

1 NE Shake It Off - Taylor Swift (1st week of 4 @ #1)
2 39 Anaconda - Nicki Minaj
3 2 All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor
4 3 Stay With Me - Sam Smith
5 1 Rude - MAGIC!
6 8 Black Widow - Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora
7 4 Break Free - Ariana Grande feat. Zedd
8 9 Chandelier - Sia
9 10 Bang Bang - Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
10 6 Am I Wrong - Nico & Vinz


5 years ago (9/4/2010)

1 1 Love The Way You Lie - Eminem feat. Rihanna (6th week of 7 @ #1)
2 2 Dynamite - Taio Cruz
3 5 Teenage Dream - Katy Perry
4 4 I Like It - Enrique Iglesias feat. Pitbull
5 7 DJ Got Us Fallin' In Love - Usher feat. Pitbull
6 NE Right Above It - Lil Wayne feat. Drake
7 6 Cooler Than Me - Mike Posner
8 3 California Gurls - Katy Perry feat. Snoop Dogg
9 16 Just The Way You Are - Bruno Mars
10 11 Magic - B.o.B feat. Rivers Cuomo


10 years ago (9/3/2005)

1 1 We Belong Together - Mariah Carey (13th week of 14 @ #1)
2 2 Don't Cha - Pussycat Dolls feat. Busta Rhymes
3 3 Pon De Replay - Rihanna
4 6 Shake It Off - Mariah Carey
5 4 Let Me Hold You - Bow Wow feat. Omarion
6 9 Lose Control - Missy Elliott feat. Ciara & Fatman Scoop
7 5 You & Me - Lifehouse
8 7 Behind These Hazel Eyes - Kelly Clarkson
9 12 Like You - Bow Wow feat. Ciara
10 8 Listen To Your Heart - DHT

+
13 19 Cool - Gwen Stefani


15 years ago (9/2/2000)

1 1 Doesn't Really Matter - Janet Jackson (2nd week of 3 @ #1)
2 2 Incomplete - Sisqo
3 4 Jumpin', Jumpin' - Destiny's Child
4 3 Bent - Matchbox 20
5 7 No More - Ruff Endz
6 5 I Wanna Know - Joe
7 12 Kryptonite - 3 Doors Down
8 19 Wifey - Next
9 8 Absolutely (Story Of A Girl) - Nine Days
10 6 It's Gonna Be Me - *NSYNC

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

September 6, 1980

01 02 Upside Down - Diana Ross (1st of 4 weeks at #1)
02 01 Sailing - Christopher Cross
03 04 Emotional Rescue - The Rolling Stones
04 07 All Out Of Love - Air Supply
05 06 Fame - Irene Cara
06 03 Magic - Olivia Newton-John
07 08 Give Me The Night - George Benson
08 05 Take Your Time (Do It Right) - The S.O.S. Band
09 11 Late In The Evening - Paul Simon
10 13 Lookin' For Love - Johnny Lee

11 12 Into The Night - Benny Mardones


September 7, 1985

01 02 St. Elmo's Fire (Man In Motion) - John Parr (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 The Power Of Love - Huey Lewis & The News
03 04 We Don't Need Another Hero (Thunderdome) - Tina Turner
04 03 Freeway Of Love - Aretha Franklin
05 05 Summer Of '69 - Bryan Adams
06 10 Money For Nothing - Dire Straits
07 08 Cherish - Kool & The Gang
08 11 Don't Lose My Number - Phil Collins
09 09 You're Only Human (Second Wind) - Billy Joel
10 13 Pop Life - Prince & The Revolution


September 8, 1990

01 02 Blaze Of Glory - Jon Bon Jovi (1st and only week at #1)
02 04 Release Me - Wilson Phillips
03 05 Do Me! - Bell Biv DeVoe
04 03 Unskinny Bop - Poison
05 01 If Wishes Came True - Sweet Sensation
06 07 Have You Seen Her - M.C. Hammer
07 10 Tonight - New Kids On The Block
08 12 (Can't Live Without Your) Love And Affection - Nelson
09 11 Epic - Faith No More
10 06 Come Back To Me - Janet Jackson


September 2, 1995

01 NE You Are Not Alone - Michael Jackson (1st and only week at #1)
02 06 Gangsta's Paradise - Coolio feat. L.V.
03 01 Kiss From a Rose - Seal
04 02 Waterfalls - TLC
05 03 Boombastic - Shaggy
06 05 I Can Love You Like That - All-4-One
07 04 Colors Of The Wind - Vanessa Williams
08 09 Run-Around - Blues Traveler
09 07 He's Mine - MoKenStef
10 12 Only Wanna Be With You - Hootie & The Blowfish

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

August 29, 1960 (for the week ending September 3)

01 01 It's Now Or Never - Elvis Presley (3rd of 5 weeks at #1)
02 03 Walk Don't Run - The Ventures
03 04 The Twist - Chubby Checker
04 05 I'm Sorry - Brenda Lee
05 07 Volare (Nel Blu Di Pinto Di Blu) - Bobby Rydell
06 02 Itsy Bitsy Teeny Weeny Yellow Polka Dot Bikini - Brian Hyland
07 08 Finger Poppin' Time - Hank Ballard
08 09 Mission Bell - Donnie Brooks
09 06 Only The Lonely - Roy Orbison
10 14 In My Little Corner Of The World - Anita Bryant


September 4, 1965

01 02 Help! - The Beatles (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 06 Like a Rolling Stone - Bob Dylan
03 03 California Girls - The Beach Boys
04 04 Unchained Melody - The Righteous Brothers
05 05 It's The Same Old Song - The Four Tops
06 01 I Got You Babe - Sonny & Cher
07 12 You Were On My Mind - We Five
08 10 Papa's Got a Brand New Bag - James Brown & The Famous Flames
09 27 Eve Of Destruction - Barry McGuire
10 08 Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me - Mel Carter


September 5, 1970

01 01 War - Edwin Starr (2nd of 3 weeks at #1)
02 09 Ain't No Mountain High Enough - Diana Ross
03 02 Make It With You - Bread
04 04 In The Summertime - Mungo Jerry
05 03 (They Long To Be) Close To You - The Carpenters
06 10 25 Or 6 To 4 - Chicago
07 07 Patches - Clarence Carter
08 08 (If You Let Me Make Love To You Then) Why Can't I Touch You - Ronnie Dyson
09 05 Spill The Wine - Eric Burdon & War
10 12 Looking Out My Back Door / Long As I Can See The Light - Creedence Clearwater Revival


September 6, 1975

01 03 Rhinestone Cowboy - Glen Campbell (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 02 Fallin' In Love - Hamilton, Joe Frank & Reynolds
03 01 Get Down Tonight - K.C. & The Sunshine Band
04 07 At Seventeen - Janis Ian
05 05 How Sweet It Is - James Taylor
06 06 Jive Talkin' - The Bee Gees
07 11 Fame - David Bowie
08 10 Fight The Power - The Isley Brothers
09 12 Could It Be Magic - Barry Manilow
10 04 One Of These Nights - The Eagles

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 08/23/15

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 189.032 (- 0.354)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 176.119 (- 0.405)
3. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 136.617 (+ 1.428) ▲
4. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 135.061 (- 2.964) ▼
5. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 121.063 (- 0.753)
6. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 114.572 (+ 1.752) ▲
7. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 113.342 (- 0.399) ▼
8. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 96.278 (+ 1.148)
9. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 93.421 (- 0.897)
10. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 90.275 (+ 0.129)
11. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 87.100 (+ 1.424) ▲
12. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 86.932 (+ 0.207) ▼
13. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 84.269 (- 0.544)
14. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 73.746 (- 0.055)
15. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 71.121 (+ 2.902) ▲
16. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 68.010 (- 2.055) ▼
17. FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 66.617 (+ 0.241)
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 64.882 (+ 0.051)
19. SAM HUNT - House Party: 63.796 (- 0.045)
20. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 62.222 (- 0.511)

DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 59.786 (+ 0.038)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 58.484 (+ 0.949)
THE WEEKND - The Hills: 52.300 (+ 2.988)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 41.685 (+ 0.920)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 39.647 (+ 1.118)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 35.112 (+ 0.296)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 34.281 (+ 0.606)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 31.682 (+ 0.841)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 30.916 (+ 0.392)
JASON DERULO - Cheyenne: 30.787 (+ 0.722)
5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 30.518 (+ 0.083)
FETTY WAP-679 f/Remy Boyz...: 30.166 (+ 0.815)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 25.342 (+ 1.255)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 23.016 (+ 0.790)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 17.798 (+ 0.485)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Growing Up f/Ed Sheeran: 17.757 (+ 0.339)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 17.330 (+ 0.166)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 16.308 (+ 0.559)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 15.922 (+ 0.550)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 15.566 (+ 0.244)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 15.420 (+ 2.115)
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 13.581 (+ 0.229)
DRAKE - Back To Back: 13.349 (+ 0.299)
DISCLOSURE - Omen f/Sam Smith: 11.687 (+ 0.110)
NICKY JAM - El Perdon (Forgiveness): 10.112 (- 0.020)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 5.620 (+ 0.074)
NICK JONAS - Levels: 4.428 (+ 1.317)
THE BAND PERRY - Live Forever: 3.860 (+ 0.333)
NELLY - The Fix f/Jeremih: 3.429 (+ 0.216)

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 23, 2015 8:19:16 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

Aug 23, 2015 7:34:48 GMT -5 Kris said:

How the hell is Trap Queen #7 at #41 sales, #51 airplay and #3 streaming? Is streaming weighted THAT high over the other 2?

Unfortunately. Streaming is weighted too highly. A #10 on Streaming Songs now has more points than a #1 on Hot Digital Songs. A sad state of affairs. :(

It's not that overweighted when you look at revenue

[wjr15]

Aug 23, 2015 8:42:08 GMT -5 ry4n said:

1 year ago (9/6/2014)

1 NE Shake It Off - Taylor Swift (1st week of 4 @ #1)
2 39 Anaconda - Nicki Minaj
3 2 All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor
4 3 Stay With Me - Sam Smith
5 1 Rude - MAGIC!
6 8 Black Widow - Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora
7 4 Break Free - Ariana Grande feat. Zedd
8 9 Chandelier - Sia
9 10 Bang Bang - Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
10 6 Am I Wrong - Nico & Vinz

Such a fun week one year ago!!

Also, I think Locked Away has a good chance of making it to the Top 10 this week or possibly #11 or #12.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Why do I sense that billboard will let Fetty Wap triple up this week with "trap queen" "my way" and "679"? They will be ranked no.8, no.9, no.10 rounding out top 10 that's a lucky bastard!

[imbondz]

Out of that '85 chart what song or songs stood the test of time?

[Verisimilitude]

Aug 23, 2015 13:34:35 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Out of that '85 chart what song or songs stood the test of time?

The top 8. The #1 particularly because:

[Dylan :)]

Prediction (I'm usually way off with these but..)

#1. Can't Feel My Face
#2. Cheerleader
#3. Lean On
#4. Watch Me
#5. Fight Song
#6/#7. The Hills/Good For You
#8. Drag Me Down
#9. My Way
#10. Trap Queen

[rimetm]

OK, everyone is being way too optimistic with their estimates for Lean On; the sale boosted it majorly last week, and it's going to lose about 30% of them this week.

1. Can't Feel My Face
2. Cheerleader (This time the sales have taken a hit)
3. Watch Me
4. The Hills
5. Fight Song
6. Lean On
7. My Way
8. Good for You
9. Drag Me Down
10. Trap Queen or 679 or something I won't expect

[House Lannister]

1. Cheerleader (by an eyelash)
2. Can't Feel My Face (probably takes back the top spot next week?)
3. Watch Me
4. Lean On (sales might have dropped, but I think there's too big a gap between 4 and 5 to make much difference)
5. The Hills
6. My Way
7. Good for You
8. Fight Song (she lost her bullet last week)
9. Trap Queen
10. 679 (Fetty has 3 songs in the top 10)
11. Drag Me Down
12. Photograph
13. Where Are U Now
14. Locked Away
15. Cool for the Summer

[Enigma.]

LOL @ the Fetty Wap hate

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Oh, no!! It sounds crazy but trap queen starts to grow on me finally when it's taking off from top 10 tier..

[Deleted]

Aug 23, 2015 23:59:20 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Oh, no!! It sounds crazy but trap queen starts to grow on me finally when it's taking off from top 10 tier..

It's one of those types of songs lol. I didn't like it at first either but then a few weeks later I started liking it quite a bit and I know at least a couple of other people on here also didn't like it at first but it eventually grew on them. Really funny concept lol.

Anyway, this is going to be another very close week between Cheerleader and CFMF, but if I were to bet money on it I would bet on CFMF winning slightly this week. It got a pretty big lead over Cheerleader in sales towards the end of the tracking week and airplay gap stayed about the same (this would mean that Cheerleader would have to widen its streaming lead over CFMF in order to stay at #1 overall but CFMF won't keep dropping in streaming - that was just last week because the video wasn't so fresh anymore)

[jayhawk1117]

So now that The Weeknd had complete control of the iTunes top 2, when was the last time two songs by a solo artist were the top 2 on itunes or has it never happened?

[Future Captain]

Aug 24, 2015 8:32:49 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

So now that The Weeknd had complete control of the iTunes top 2, when was the last time two songs by a solo artist were the top 2 on itunes or has it never happened?

Taylor dominated 8 out of 10 spots in the top 10 when 1989 dropped, and yes, she dominated the top 2 with Blank Space and Shake It Off, the #3 is AATB.

[House Lannister]

I should warn you now. When Hit the Quan hits as soon as next week, that'll become the next smash hit from Vine.

[lyhom]

so?

[House Lannister]

Trying to give them warning that this might be the next Nasty Freestyle or Watch Me. Emphasis on the words might be.

[lyhom]

and why does that need a warning?

oh no, a song some people likely won't like might become a hit! the horror

[Enigma.]

This 'Beauty Behind the Madness' era is perfectly executed so far... he just dropped the video for Tell Your Friends

[Mikel Echarri]

Cheerleader #1