Billboard Hot 100 : 09/19/2015

[Daniel Collins]

Kworb 2015/09/01

*** = dropped or added a format

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 183.272 (-1.322)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 160.747 (-2.981)
3. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 151.394 (+0.253)
4. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 131.914 (+1.388)
5. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 109.935 (-0.173) ▲
6. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 109.708 (-1.209) ▼
7. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 109.370 (+2.169) ▲
8. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood: 105.114 (-3.409) ▼
9. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 92.761 (+0.690)
10. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 91.644 (+1.770)
11. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 88.918 (+0.765)
12. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now f/J. Bieber: 86.647 (-0.668)
13. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 83.728 (+3.963) ▲
14. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 82.427 (-0.982) ▼
15. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 79.517 (+0.002)
16. SAM HUNT - House Party: 65.887 (-0.117) ▲
17. DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 65.455 (+0.726) ▲
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 65.399 (-0.441)
19. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 65.397 (-1.077) ▼
20. THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 63.866 (+0.403)

21. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 59.464 (-0.204)
22. CHRIS JANSON - Buy Me A Boat: 59.132 (+0.378)
23. KEITH URBAN - John Cougar, John Deere...: 57.707 (+0.627)
24. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 55.932 (-0.053)
25. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 52.067 (-2.027)
26. BRETT ELDREDGE - Lose My Mind: 51.927 (+0.143) ▲
27. KENNY CHESNEY - Save It For A Rainy Day: 51.735 (+0.587) ▲
28. FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 49.900 (-2.833) ▼
29. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 48.729 (+0.609) ▲
30. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/Nicki Minaj: 47.918 (-1.123) ▼
31. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 46.911 (+0.242) ▲
32. JIDENNA - Classic Man: 46.556 (-0.210)
33. RICH HOMIE QUAN - Flex: 46.205 (-0.649) ▼
34. SILENTO - Watch Me: 45.554 (-0.988)
35. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 45.265 (-0.349)
36. CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 43.855 (+0.363)
37. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 42.361 (-0.532)
38. JEREMIH - Planes f/J. Cole: 42.055 (+0.184) ▲
39. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 41.540 (-1.081) ▼
40. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 39.932 (-0.159)

41. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 39.001 (+0.444) ▲
42. ERIC CHURCH - Like A Wrecking Ball: 38.840 (+0.108)
43. MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 38.449 (+0.163) ▲
44. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 38.359 (-1.260) ▼
45. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 38.347 (+0.393)
46. MADDIE & TAE - Fly: 37.847 (+0.153)
47. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 37.243 (+0.865) ▲
48. CHASE RICE - Gonna Wanna Tonight: 36.539 (+0.111) ▼
49. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 35.846 (+0.215)
50. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 35.564 (+0.195)
51. COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 34.697 (-0.049)
52. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 33.833 (+0.930) ▲
53. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 33.290 (-0.148) ▼
54. RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 32.670 (+0.000)
55. DAN + SHAY - Nothin' Like You: 31.954 (-0.005)
56. ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 31.946 (+0.392) ▲
57. LUKE BRYAN - Strip It Down: 31.710 (+0.930) ▲
58. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 31.662 (+7.124***) ▲
59. ZAC BROWN BAND - Loving You Easy: 30.668 (-0.987) ▼
60. ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 30.539 (+0.113)

61. 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 30.416 (-0.050) ▼
62. JAKE OWEN - Real Life: 30.280 (+0.173) ▼
63. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 30.033 (+3.689) ▲
64. JASON DERULO - Cheyenne: 29.550 (-0.302) ▼
65. MICHAEL RAY - Kiss You In The Morning: 29.395 (-0.253) ▼
66. LADY ANTEBELLUM - Long Stretch Of Love: 29.290 (-0.094) ▼
67. BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 28.904 (+0.554)
68. HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 28.313 (+0.142)
69. KIP MOORE - I'm To Blame: 28.272 (-0.106) ▼
70. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 28.219 (-0.668) ▼
71. OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 27.998 (+0.284) ▼
72. FLO RIDA - I Don't Like It, I Love It: 27.530 (-0.177) ▼
73. TREY SONGZ - About You: 27.332 (+0.252) ▼
74. K CAMP - Comfortable: 26.771 (+0.284) ▼
75. ANDREW MCMAHON IN WILDERNESS - Cecilia And The Satellite: 26.556 (-0.124) ▼

76. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 26.325 (+3.817)
178. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 10.666 (+1.223)

[RainMan94]

So, could the Hot 100 top ten potentially have three to four new entries this week? I'm thinking What Do You Mean and Wildest Dreams for sure, with Downtown and Photograph possibly sneaking in towards the bottom rung. Any ideas?

[rimetm]

My prediction, based on instinct and nothing else
1. What Do You Mean
2. Can't Feel My Face
3. Cheerleader
4. The Hills
5. Locked Away
6. Watch Me
7. Wildest Dreams
8. 679
9. Lean On
10. Downtown
11. Photograph
12. Good for You
13. My Way
14. Trap Queen
15. Cool for the Summer
16. Fight Song

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

I think The Hills will be #3 this week. It's radio is obviously much lower than Cheerleader, but the boost it's gotten in sales & streaming from the album release could put it over the top.

[wjr15]

Early Top 10 Prediction:
1. What Do You Mean
2. Can't Feel My Face
3. Cheerleader
4. The Hills
5. Watch Me
6. Locked Away
7. Lean On
8. Wildest Dreams
9. Good For You
10. Downtown

[yuh yuh]

I really really hope that Good For You stays into top 10, Wildest Dreams goes to top 10 and Demi at least to come very close to top 10(or get into ;) )

[imbondz]

Wildest Dreams > Bad Blood

[Deleted]

Why are people so sure that WDYM will be #1? Did the video come out and start getting millions of views, or something?

[Mikel Echarri]

Sept 1, 2015 15:13:00 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Why are people so sure that WDYM will be #1? Did the video come out and start getting millions of views, or something?

A lot of views of both lyric video and MV, #1 on Spotify, +300k sales, big reception on radio... seems very possible.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Sept 1, 2015 15:13:00 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Why are people so sure that WDYM will be #1? Did the video come out and start getting millions of views, or something?

Lyric video (released 4 days ago) has 19 million views. Official video (released 1 day ago) has 11 million views. So that's 30 million views WW, plus however many from other videos that use the audio. So yes, he'll have millions of views from the US.

[jayhawk1117]

I'd love 3 new songs in the top 10, I'm just unsure which will be the 3rd, cuz JB and TS are basically locked. It'll be close between Photograph, Cool For The Summer and Downtown.

[Deleted]

Damn...so he's getting a #1 after all huh? Hope it's just a single-week #1...

[rimetm]

Sept 1, 2015 15:40:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Damn...so he's getting a #1 after all huh? Hope it's just a single-week #1...

Still remember those comments on chart videos  :

"I have as many number ones as Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj, and One Direction combined."

In any case, let's see if I can crunch some numbers:

Can't Feel My Face
Sales should pick up around 15-30% on album week. That pegs it for about 140,000 sales.
Streams should likewise gain, especially with the VMA performance fresh on peoples' minds. I'm guessing 16 million streams, though as always I'm basically taking a stab in the dark because I don't know how great a "surge" is in streaming.
Radio is on the fall, but it's a steady fall. I predict around 135 million in radio audience by Billboard metrics.

What Do You Mean
kworb is estimating 350,000. Billboard is estimating 300,000. Since both seem to go to opposite extremes, I'm gonna guess around 325,000 sales this week.
3 days of Bieber in Spotify gave him 6.3 million global streams. All those days count to this week, and he can manage at least 4 million more globally. US fanbase for Bieber is most significant, though I don't know if Canada skews the proportions, so I'll assume 45% (4.6 million streams) for the US. YouTube music video has 12 million streams and looks to gain at least 8 more before the end of the week (40% for more markets, so 8 million US streams) and the lyric video has 20.5 million streams with no sign of slowing down with 5 million more projected (considering the video is in English for lyrics and the music video now exists, I imagine US takes a bigger piece of the pie with about 55%, so 14 million streams). So, my estimate is...26.6 million streams? Someone tell me if my assumptions are way out of whack.
The radio deal may cause Bieber to suffer on the key day, but it should've already obtained significant gains to offset. I'm predicting around 40 million in radio audience by Billboard metrics.

What Do You Mean would have 60,639 points.
Can't Feel My Face would have 42,944 points.

[Mikel Echarri]

Will Justin Bieber's 'What Do You Mean?' Be His First Hot 100 No. 1? 

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6685082/justin-bieber-what-do-you-mean-first-number-one

By Gary Trust and Keith Caulfield | September 01, 2015 5:34 PM EDT

The new single, which Bieber performed on the VMAs, could launch with 300,000 downloads sold in its first week. Plus, post-VMA moves expected for Taylor Swift, The Weeknd and Macklemore & Ryan Lewis.
Justin Bieber is set to rocket onto the Billboard Hot 100 chart, as his new single, "What Do You Mean?," appears headed for a debut likely in the top five, if not No. 1 -- a milestone he's yet to achieve. (Bieber has climbed as high as No. 2 with "Boyfriend," in 2012.)
Highlights of the next Hot 100, dated Sept. 19, will be revealed Tuesday, Sept. 8, on Billboard.com, with the entire chart posting the following day. (See the current, Sept. 12-dated Hot 100, in full, here.)

Industry forecasters suggest that "Mean," released Friday, Aug. 28, could sell around 300,000 downloads in the week ending Sept. 3. That hefty sales start, along with building streaming and airplay data, should enable the track to challenge for a No. 1 debut on the Hot 100. Standing in Bieber's way, however, could be current Hot 100 champ The Weeknd, with "Can't Feel My Face." (More on The Weeknd in a moment.)

The Sept. 19-dated Hot 100 chart, where Bieber is expected to debut, will reflect sales and streaming data for the week ending Sept. 3, and airplay data for the week ending Sept. 6.

In addition to the retail launch of "Mean," its official lyric video premiered Aug. 28, while its music video arrived late on Sunday, Aug. 30, the same night that Bieber performed the song on the MTV Video Music Awards.
"Mean" has already debuted on Billboard's Pop Songs airplay chart (dated Sept. 12) after only three days of spins, at No. 28 with 20 million in radio audience, according to Nielsen Music (and aided by hourly first-day plays on participating iHeartMedia-owned stations). It will continue scaling the list following its first full week of play.

Upon its Hot 100 debut, "Mean" should instantly become Bieber's seventh Hot 100 top 10 and second in a row following Skrillex and Diplo's "Where Are U Now," on which he's featured; the track, which he also performed on the VMAs, reached No. 8 in July.

"Mean" is the first single from the 21-year-old's forthcoming studio album, which he described to Ryan Seacrest as "really inspirational. Most of the songs are uplifting and fun. I wanted to use my platform in this point of my life to just reach as many people as I can in a positive way." (The set prominently features Skrillex and Diplo, Bieber says.)
Bieber has collected five No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, between 2010 and 2013. He earned his fifth leader when he was 18, making him the youngest artist to tally five chart-topping sets.

Bieber isn't the only star expected to surge on next week's Hot 100 boosted by exposure at the VMAs. After The Weeknd performed current Hot 100 leader "Face" on the show, the song could soar to 150,000 sold in the week ending Sept. 3.

Taylor Swift premiered the video for new single "Wildest Dreams" to close the VMAs pre-show, and the ballad should re-enter the Hot 100, possibly in the top 40, with sales of around 75,000. (The song spent a week on the Hot 100, as an album cut, at No. 76 in November -- the same frame that parent album 1989 debuted atop the Billboard 200.) On the Sept. 12 Pop Songs survey, "Dreams" debuts at No. 30 (13 million in audience).

Also aiming for the top 40 is Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' new single "Downtown" (featuring Eric Nally, Melle Mel, Kool Moe Dee and Grandmaster Caz), which the pair performed on the VMAs, should leap from its No. 94 Hot 100 debut this week, jumping to sales of around 80,000 after its Aug. 27 retail arrival. It also begins on this week's Pop Songs chart at No. 31 (17 million in audience).

[House Lannister]

Sept 1, 2015 15:30:24 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I'd love 3 new songs in the top 10, I'm just unsure which will be the 3rd, cuz JB and TS are basically locked. It'll be close between Photograph, Cool For The Summer and Downtown.

Wouldn't rule out Hit the Quan yet.  That song has been surging.  

But if I had to guess, I think this is the week that Ed Sheeran enters the top 10.

[wjr15]

Gonna be a very interesting week on the Hot 100. I'm 99% sure we're gonna get three new entries into the Top 10. But I would love it if we could get 4 new entries in the Top 10 but that seems unlikely.

[wavey.]

Sept 1, 2015 15:40:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Damn...so he's getting a #1 after all huh? Hope it's just a single-week #1...

Look..

[SPRΞΞ]

Sept 1, 2015 15:40:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Damn...so he's getting a #1 after all huh? Hope it's just a single-week #1...

Is WDYM the new Dark Horse for you?

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2015 10:17:58 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Sept 1, 2015 15:40:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Damn...so he's getting a #1 after all huh? Hope it's just a single-week #1...

Is WDYM the new Dark Horse for you?

more like the new SYA I never even said anything about DH until like May 2014 tbh...not a huge fan of sudden hits tbh. But who knows, maybe if I listen to WDYM in full and I'll like it a lot. It's possible.

[Mikel Echarri]

Next week will be more than 7 songs of BBTM on the Hot 100 (that's more than the half of the album)... Often will re-enter?

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

CFMF #2, Hills #3, Prisoner top 40, rest of the songs will be strewn in the 70s & 80s I'd imagine

[Enigma.]

Get that top 40 hit Lana!

[House Lannister]

After hearing What Do You Mean, it sounded decent. Of the new songs I listened to this week:

1. Levels
2. Smoke Break
3. What Do You Mean
4. Wildest Dreams
5. Hit the Quan

None were less than OK, IMO.

[Deleted]

Every time I hear about Levels on here I think of the one from Avicii rather than the one from Jonas lol

[allow that]

Sept 3, 2015 9:12:06 GMT -5 Mikel Echarri said:

Sept 3, 2015 9:08:30 GMT -5 allow that said:

Video is *thisclose* to 20 million views on VEVO. Of course, that's a global number but it's stiil massive.

The lyric video is over 25 million.

The entirety of both of these figures as of now reflect his debut week, correct?

Yes... with more than 15 million of streams from US, +330k sales and Top 40 on airplay... the #1 is guaranteed

Figured I'd carry this over here. JUSTIN HAS IT!

[badrobot]

I feel like labels have really figured out how to handle a massive song debut lately. Most impressive to me is how they managed it with Bad Blood -- a 4th single. (Personally, I don't care for the song, but the promo was incredible.)

[House Lannister]

I just realized something. Why are we so sure that Wildest Dreams hits top 10 this week?

75,000 sales
20 million Youtube views
34.853 million current/peak audience

If these numbers hold, is this worthy of a top 10 this week? Or might this just be enough to chart in say the top 20-30 this week and aim for a big boost next week?

[areyoureadytojump]

^Billboard above says WD will re-enter the Top 40.

[Mikel Echarri]

Sept 3, 2015 12:02:24 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

I just realized something. Why are we so sure that Wildest Dreams hits top 10 this week?

75,000 sales
20 million Youtube views
34.853 million current/peak audience

If these numbers hold, is this worthy of a top 10 this week? Or might this just be enough to chart in say the top 20-30 this week and aim for a big boost next week?

Top 30 for sure, probably even top 20, but not top 10. If she release the radio mix could have the top 10 guaranteed

[Deleted]

Is there any chance The Weeknd will return to #1 on 9/26? Like do you guys think WDYM will continue with these very large sales and streams into next week a la SYA or will it have a second-week decline a la Not Afraid? I do want The Weeknd to be #1 (whether with CFMF or The Hills) but at the same time this chart race with WDYM makes for an interesting chart (which is an occurrence most people here will agree has not been abundant this year).