Billboard Hot 100 : 09/19/2015

[Deleted]

We will be seeing a certain deja vu all over again over the next few weeks. Calling it right now.

[SPRΞΞ]

Sept 3, 2015 18:52:42 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

We will be seeing a certain deja vu all over again over the next few weeks. Calling it right now.

Fine by me.

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 09/04/15

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 183.294 (+ 0.113)
2. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 148.154 (+ 0.527) ▲
3. OMI - Cheerleader: 146.036 (- 3.289) ▼
4. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 134.590 (+ 0.626)
5. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 115.899 (+ 2.568)
6. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 110.213 (- 0.525)
7. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 106.891 (- 1.080)
8. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 98.923 (+ 2.701) ▲
9. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 97.496 (+ 1.733) ▲
10. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 97.120 (- 2.631) ▼
11. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 93.384 (+ 3.460) ▲
12. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 92.269 (+ 1.182) ▼
13. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 78.891 (- 2.436)
14. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 76.965 (- 1.222)
15. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 76.441 (- 0.944)
16. DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 66.731 (+ 1.256) ▲
17. THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 64.843 (+ 0.443) ▲
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 64.681 (+ 0.157)
18. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 64.173 (- 2.518) ▼
20. SAM HUNT - House Party: 62.150 (- 1.526)

JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 52.161 (+ 6.957)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 51.915 (+ 1.094)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 46.881 (+ 0.701)
FETTY WAP-679 f/Remy Boyz...: 41.226 (+ 0.615)
ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 41.097 (+ 0.631)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 40.739 (+ 0.375)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 39.368 (+ 3.950)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 39.029 (- 0.021)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 38.563 (+ 0.876)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 37.439 (+ 1.158)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 32.069 (+ 0.090)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 30.078 (+ 0.353)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 29.410 (- 10.666)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 25.553 (+ 0.689)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 21.751 (+ 0.432)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 21.219 (+ 0.400)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 19.069 (+ 0.337)
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 18.039 (+ 0.378)
NICK JONAS - Levels: 15.493 (+ 0.871)
DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 13.560 (+ 0.810)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 11.329 (+ 0.553)
NELLY - The Fix f/Jeremih: 8.104 (+ 0.673)
MAJOR LAZER - Powerful f/Ellie Goulding: 4.354 (+ 0.339)

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

The fact that The Weeknd is about to have 2 top 10 overall airplay singles, both growing, is insane.

[Ravi]

No sales estimates for this week yet?

[Verisimilitude]

Spotify US Weekly Top 20 Streams 08/29/2015 - 09/04/2015

1 (NEW). What Do You Mean? 8,331,248 (+8,331,248 from last week)
2 (=). The Hills 7,516,615 (+2,528,197)
3 (-2). Can't Feel My Face 7,027,210 (+1,857,616)
4 (-1). 679 4,950,026 (+261,274)
5 (=). Hotline Bling 4,266,913 (+609,064)
6 (-2). Lean On 3,922,701 (-19,170)
7 (-1). Good For You 3,455,416 (+22,553)
8 (-1). Cheerleader 3,319,379 (-72,095)
9 (NEW). Often 3,290,353
10 (NEW). Real Life 3,279,276 (+3,279,276)

11 (-3). Trap Queen 3,141,968 (+16,347)
12 (-2). Where Are U Now 3,094,138 (+245,496)
13 (-4). Drag Me Down 2,945,964 (-159,625)
14 (NEW). Acquainted 2,836,953 (+2,836,953)
15 (-4). My Way 2,775,008 (-331)
16 (-2). Locked Away 2,749,459 (+145,520)
17 (NEW). Tell Your Friends 2,715,784 (+2,715,784)
18 (-1). Again 2,630,663 (+292,589)
19 (RE-ENTRY). Earned It 2,629,109 (+916,754)
20 (-7). Cool For The Summer 2,597,061 (-13,091)

Bubbling Under

21 (-5). Back To Back 2,454,306 (+101,023)
22 (-7). All Eyes On You 2,428,613 (-64,760)
23 (-4). Flex (Ooh, Ooh, Ooh) 2,394,067 (+132,209)
24 (-12). Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) 2,390,156 (-295,866)
25 (NEW). Dark Times 2,359,621 (+2,359,621)
26 (NEW). Losers 2,359,069 (+2,359,069)
27 (-2). Stitches 2,336,946 (+242,688)

All BBTM tracks

The Hills 7,516,615
Can't Feel My Face 7,027,210
Often 3,290,353
Real Life 3,279,276
Acquainted 2,836,953
Tell Your Friends 2,715,784
Earned It 2,629,109
Dark Times 2,359,621
Losers 2,359,069
In The Night 2,063,268
Shameless 2,042,917
Angel 1,672,915
As You Are 1,553,397

Total BBTM album track streams 41,346,487

And including Apple Music, the album should reach 55-60 million streams!

[allow that]

Holy shit at Justin's audience being at 52 million in less than a week :o :o :o

[yuh yuh]

Bad that CFTS fell in Spotify.. I don't know, how it'll affect its streaming for next week's chart..

[allow that]

Sept 4, 2015 8:58:56 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

Bad that CFTS fell in Spotify.. I don't know, how it'll affect its streaming for next week's chart..

Nah, let it fall. We may finally have hope for some fast turnover. Maybe "The Hills" will head to #1 after a week or two of Bieber domination instead of "Face" going back.

Then again, with these numbers, it's quite possible that Bieber won't even see the typical steep drop we see in week two of big releases.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Wait where is Prisoner in the streams? It's at #23 on the most recent app update and was previously higher. It has to have at least as many streams as As You Are consider its sales were so much higher than the rest of the tracks

[Kworb]

Sales estimates

1. What Do You Mean? 337,000
2. Can't Feel My Face 149,000
3. The Hills 120,000
4. Locked Away 96,000
5. Downtown 91,000
6. Watch Me 81,000
7. Wildest Dreams 71,000
8. Stitches 71,000
9. Cheerleader 69,000
10. 679 64,000
11. Cool For The Summer 62,000
12. Fight Song 61,000
13. Good For You 60,000
14. Marvin Gaye 55,000
15. Where Are Ü Now 54,000
16. Hotline Bling 52,000
17. Drag Me Down 51,000
18. Prisoner 50,000
19. Roots 48,000
20. Photograph 45,000
21. Should've Been Us 44,000
22. Lean On 43,000
23. Strip It Down 41,000
24. Love Myself 41,000

kworb.net/cc

[Mikel Echarri]

No doubt, 1st #1 debut this year and 1st #1 of Justin

[erzo01]

So far, 3 singles have debuted at #1 in both the US and the UK: Something about the Way You Look/Candle in the Wind, My Heart Will Go On and Part of Me. WDYM just debuted at #1 in the UK and at this point I think it's safe to say that it'll be the 4th to join the aforementioned list.

(Both I'll Be Missing You and We R Who We R reached #1 in the UK but didn't debut at that spot.)

[rimetm]

Sept 1, 2015 17:41:32 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Can't Feel My Face
Sales should pick up around 15-30% on album week. That pegs it for about 140,000 sales.
Streams should likewise gain, especially with the VMA performance fresh on peoples' minds. I'm guessing 16 million streams, though as always I'm basically taking a stab in the dark because I don't know how great a "surge" is in streaming.
Radio is on the fall, but it's a steady fall. I predict around 135 million in radio audience by Billboard metrics.

What Do You Mean
kworb is estimating 350,000. Billboard is estimating 300,000. Since both seem to go to opposite extremes, I'm gonna guess around 325,000 sales this week.
3 days of Bieber in Spotify gave him 6.3 million global streams. All those days count to this week, and he can manage at least 4 million more globally. US fanbase for Bieber is most significant, though I don't know if Canada skews the proportions, so I'll assume 45% (4.6 million streams) for the US. YouTube music video has 12 million streams and looks to gain at least 8 more before the end of the week (40% for more markets, so 8 million US streams) and the lyric video has 20.5 million streams with no sign of slowing down with 5 million more projected (considering the video is in English for lyrics and the music video now exists, I imagine US takes a bigger piece of the pie with about 55%, so 14 million streams). So, my estimate is...26.6 million streams? Someone tell me if my assumptions are way out of whack.
The radio deal may cause Bieber to suffer on the key day, but it should've already obtained significant gains to offset. I'm predicting around 40 million in radio audience by Billboard metrics.

What Do You Mean would have 60,639 points.
Can't Feel My Face would have 42,944 points.

So, let's update the forecast. Primary impetuses?

-Wow, I was way off on What Do You Mean's Spotify numbers.
-I slightly underestimated the sales.
-Radio somehow manages to be even stronger than I expected!

Can't Feel My Face
149,000 sales (close to but above my estimate)
18,400,000 streams (If a 35% gain across the board is to be expected based on Spotify)
150,000,000 impressions (the losses are stabilizing and even reversing to an extent)

What Do You Mean
337,000 sales (Guess I was too conservatively influenced by Billboard's forecast)
38,300,000 streams (8.33 million streams on Spotify are way more than I predicted. Now that we are at the end of the streaming week, here's how the global YouTube views ended up: 26 and 24 million for the lyric and music video. I am willing to assume about 60% are from the US since a great proportion of global Spotify plays were similar)
50,000,000 impressions (radio is surging faster than expected; 8 day effect barely fazed/is going to faze it!)

What Do You Mean is now slated for 75,639 points.
Can't Feel My Face is now slated for 47,861 points.

[Clauss]

It's amazing how he hasnt drop like a rock the way I thought it would. Next week should fight the #1 too right?

[yuh yuh]

Am I the only one, who don't see Cheerleader on Itunes top 100?

[Mikel Echarri]

Sept 4, 2015 15:21:18 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

Am I the only one, who don't see Cheerleader on Itunes top 100?

The single version was deleted because now is from his upcoming album "Me 4 U"

[yuh yuh]

Sept 4, 2015 15:42:45 GMT -5 Mikel Echarri said:

Sept 4, 2015 15:21:18 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

Am I the only one, who don't see Cheerleader on Itunes top 100?

The single version was deleted because now is from his upcoming album "Me 4 U"

Okay, thanks!

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Hit The Quan has disappeared from Spotify but still on iTunes. Anybody know why?

[wjr15]

Sept 4, 2015 20:38:34 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Hit The Quan has disappeared from Spotify but still on iTunes. Anybody know why?

Someone probably jumped on the "I'm too good for streaming" bandwagon

[Ravi]

Top-10 predictions:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	What Do You Mean	340	40	25.0	60,000
2	Can't Feel My Face	150	148	16.0	45,000
3	The Hills	120	82	16.0	36,000
4	Watch Me	80	35	20.0	32,400
5	Cheerleader	70	112	13.0	31,500
6	Lean On	45	125	10.0	27,400
7	Locked Away	95	90	8.0	25,800
8	Good For You	60	100	9.0	25,000
9	679	65	35	14.0	24,500
10	Photograph	45	110	5.0	20,300
11	Trap Queen	25	25	14.0	20,100
12	Cool For The Summer	60	80	6.0	19,700

*What do You mean should very easily be #1. It will be 5k ahead of CFMF on Sales+Airplay, so all it needed to do was to do 12M+ on streaming, and the video release easily guarantees that. CFMF will comfortably be #2.
*The Hills will probably jump to #3 on account of big jumps in sales and airplay.
*Watch Me could be #4 or #5 depending on streaming. This week will be probably the last for Cheerleader in Top-5.
* #6-9 will be taken by lean On, Locked Away, Good For You and 679, probably in that order. Locked Away could very well enter Top-5 next week.

* So it is the #10 spot which is the big mystery this week. Photograph seems to be the favorite, but it could again be frustrated by Trap Queen's persistently high streaming. Cool For The Summer is not much far behind, and if it can increase from last week's 6M streams, it may get that #10 spot.
* Both Downtown and Wildest Dreams have 10k points from Sales+Airplay, so if one of them can surprise on streaming and get 9M+ streams, there is a chance of sneaking into Top-10. However that seems unlikely.

[Mikel Echarri]

^^Thanks for your detailed predictions :)

[jayhawk1117]

How many weeks are we guessing for WDYM? It's 2 minimum and I'm going with 5 maximum.

[yuh yuh]

I predict 2-3

[Clauss]

I only see Focus displacing it. And we don't know yet the release date

[Dylan :)]

Ariana said something in October, so hopefully an announcement mid October, release late November. I'd prefer if she held off until December for the year end charts :/ I also think if they release the video the day of the iTunes release it should have a big chance at #1 (provided it is good lol).

I'm also really hope for a #10 position for Cool For The Summer this week! It can die after that. #16 feels way too low :(

[wjr15]

I can see WDYM getting 2 weeks at #1, possibly a third week. It's all gonna depend on how well Justin's sales and streaming do

[Mikel Echarri]

2015/09/05

*** = dropped or added a format

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 183.746 (+0.047)
2. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 152.958 (+0.033)
3. OMI - Cheerleader: 148.932 (-3.331)
4. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 133.295 (+0.405)
5. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 119.651 (+2.536)
6. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 107.812 (-1.110)
7. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 104.304 (-1.424)
8. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 100.731 (+1.849)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 98.874 (+1.326)
10. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 95.934 (+2.627) ▲
11. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood: 94.515 (-2.758) ▼
12. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 92.634 (+0.994)
13. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now f/J. Bieber: 77.675 (-1.342)
14. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 76.055 (-1.667)
15. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 75.524 (-0.879)
16. DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 66.709 (+0.000)
17. THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 64.821 (+0.052)
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 63.696 (-0.964)
19. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 63.005 (-0.707)
20. SAM HUNT - House Party: 60.435 (-1.641)
21. CHRIS JANSON - Buy Me A Boat: 59.914 (+0.209)
22. KEITH URBAN - John Cougar, John Deere...: 59.341 (+0.020)
23. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 58.979 (-0.218)
24. KENNY CHESNEY - Save It For A Rainy Day: 54.711 (+0.726) ▲
25. BRETT ELDREDGE - Lose My Mind: 53.791 (+0.490) ▲
26. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 53.648 (-0.956) ▼
27. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 52.222 (+0.375)
28. CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 47.264 (+0.810) ▲
29. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 47.095 (-0.357)
30. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/Nicki Minaj: 45.995 (-0.195) ▲
31. RICH HOMIE QUAN - Flex: 45.839 (-0.366) ▲
32. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 45.349 (-1.745***) ▼
33. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 44.351 (-0.235) ▲
34. JIDENNA - Classic Man: 43.960 (-0.985)
35. JEREMIH - Planes f/J. Cole: 42.552 (-0.544) ▲
36. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 42.530 (+3.746) ▲
37. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 41.370 (+0.468) ▲
38. FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 41.088 (-2.182) ▼
39. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 40.304 (-0.419) ▲
40. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 40.276 (-0.643) ▼
41. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 39.950 (-10.524) ▼
42. MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 39.832 (-0.128)
43. ERIC CHURCH - Like A Wrecking Ball: 39.495 (+0.369)
44. SILENTO - Watch Me: 39.384 (-1.843) ▼
45. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 39.305 (+0.379)
46. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 38.804 (-0.170) ▼
47. MADDIE & TAE - Fly: 38.454 (+0.058)
48. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 37.760 (+0.838***) ▲
49. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 37.759 (+1.022) ▲
50. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 37.585 (-0.519) ▼
51. CHASE RICE - Gonna Wanna Tonight: 37.066 (+0.319) ▼
52. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 35.157 (-0.111)
53. LUKE BRYAN - Strip It Down: 34.865 (+1.013) ▲
54. COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 34.828 (-0.029) ▼
55. TAYLOR SWIFT - Blank Space: 34.214 (-0.279) ▼
56. DAN + SHAY - Nothin' Like You: 32.528 (-0.169)
57. ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 32.123 (+0.306) ▲
58. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 31.396 (+2.585) ▲
59. FETTY WAP - Trap Queen: 31.107 (-0.796) ▼
60. JAKE OWEN - Real Life: 30.364 (-0.055)
61. RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 30.333 (-1.081) ▼
62. BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 29.999 (+0.373) ▲
63. LADY ANTEBELLUM - Long Stretch Of Love: 29.970 (+0.542) ▲
64. ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 29.527 (-0.750***) ▼
65. MICHAEL RAY - Kiss You In The Morning: 29.520 (-0.079) ▼
66. 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 29.406 (-0.262) ▼
67. HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 29.281 (+0.838) ▲
68. NICKY JAM - El Perdon: 29.122 (+0.617) ▲
69. OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 28.924 (+0.595) ▲
70. JASON DERULO - Cheyenne: 28.659 (-0.399) ▼
71. TREY SONGZ - About You: 28.371 (+0.219) ▲
72. ZAC BROWN BAND - Loving You Easy: 28.151 (-0.486) ▼
73. K CAMP - Comfortable: 27.883 (-0.067)
74. KIP MOORE - I'm To Blame: 27.694 (-0.151)
75. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 26.698 (+1.169) ▲

125. NICK JONAS - Levels 15.372 (+1.034) ▲
141. DRAKE - Hotline Bling 13.868 (+0.973) ▲

[jebsib]

Just occurred to me that we haven't had a Holiday Monday yet since the chart preview articles moved to Mondays.
I wonder how this will affect the timing of Hot 100 info moving forward.

[rimetm]

From the forecast article

Highlights of the next Hot 100, dated Sept. 19, will be revealed Tuesday, Sept. 8, on Billboard.com, with the entire Hot 100, and all charts, posting Wednesday (9), due to the Labor Day holiday Monday (as all charts usually refresh online each Tuesday).