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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 13:53:53 GMT -5
So in essence, we've only had 7 "natural" #1s with longevity at the top. The one-weekers all had some big impetus pushing them that couldn't last: Bad Blood and Hotline Bling had the music video launch, while What Do You Mean had the hype/everything launch. A #1 is a #1 is a #1 is a #1. There's nothing anymore "unnatural" about a one-week #1 than a six-week #1. This is ridiculous. Was thinking the same thing, thank you. |
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Oct 25, 2015 14:01:06 GMT -5
Sorry but I don't get that at all. There are hundreds of one week #1's. Where was I saying they didn't deserve to be counted? I simply meant that the majority of the year was occupied by 6 #1's (Blank Space only got 2 weeks that were technically in 2014 anyways), which is a pretty insanely slow turn over rate. Obviously there will be 10-11 #1's, but the year was occupied primarily by a mere 6 at the summit. Crazy stat really. That's it, calm yo tits people. I'm not dragging your all time favorite one weekers. Sheesh. |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Oct 25, 2015 14:04:26 GMT -5
So in essence, we've only had 7 "natural" #1s with longevity at the top. The one-weekers all had some big impetus pushing them that couldn't last: Bad Blood and Hotline Bling had the music video launch, while What Do You Mean had the hype/everything launch. A #1 is a #1 is a #1 is a #1. There's nothing anymore "unnatural" about a one-week #1 than a six-week #1. This is ridiculous. I didn't say I agreed, I was just explaining what popbox meant and why that statement would've been made in the first place. Incorrectly, apparently, so I apologize. Anyway, top 10 prediction time! 01 - 01 - The Hills [6th week] [wins by less than 5%] 02 - 02 - Hotline Bling 03 - 03 - What Do You Mean 04 - 06 - Wildest Dreams 05 - 04 - 679 06 - 05 - Stitches 07 - 08 - Locked Away 08 - 07 - Can't Feel My Face 09 - 12 - Downtown 10 - 11 - Lean On 11 - 10 - Good for You 12 - 18 - Same Old Love 13 - 15 - Hit the Quan 14 - 09 - Watch Me 15 - 13 - Jumpman |
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 25, 2015 14:13:28 GMT -5
Sorry but I don't get that at all. There are hundreds of one week #1's. Where was I saying they didn't deserve to be counted? I simply meant that the majority of the year was occupied by 6 #1's (Blank Space only got 2 weeks that were technically in 2014 anyways), which is a pretty insanely slow turn over rate. Obviously there will be 10-11 #1's, but the year was occupied primarily by a mere 6 at the summit. Crazy stat really. That's it, calm yo tits people. I'm not dragging your all time favorite one weekers. Sheesh. Hehe I don't question your sanity.  |
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Oct 25, 2015 14:15:05 GMT -5
Let me put it this way: if Hotline Bling is #1 for a week and then Hello #1 through the new year (and I mean the real new year, not the chart new year), then we will have had 6 #1's 49 weeks out of the last 52. That would go up to 50 out of 52 if Hotline is blocked by The Hills this week. All I'm trying to illustrate here is how crazy slow the turnover rate was this year. About the slowest ever.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 25, 2015 14:17:36 GMT -5
I think it's just an exception, just how that Usher year was but interesting to see what happens next year.
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Oct 25, 2015 14:20:51 GMT -5
I think it's just an exception, just how that Usher year was but interesting to see what happens next year. '96 is the record low with 9 (which this year could still possibly tie), and '97 subsequently only had 10. So I'd guess we're probably in for a similar 2016 turnover rate before things pick up again in 2017. Kind of funny how the turnover rate this decade seems to be following the pattern of the 90's (both started with a crazy fast turnover rate that slowed to a crawl in the middle of the decade and then picked up again in the later part in the 90's case). |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 14:39:36 GMT -5
I'm hoping Drake can pull though at #1 tomorrow.
Hello has the potential to be the Uptown Funk of 2016, just earlier. I was saying not long ago how I hope we don't have another Uptown Funk that dominates the YE chart for the almost the entire year. Oh well... I guess it probably won't be AS bad, considering it's going to have 3 of it's big point weeks during this year.
Then again... maybe Hello will be more front loaded and a strong 2nd single will keep it from being UF level longevity.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Oct 25, 2015 14:42:41 GMT -5
It seems to me that Hello is more of a Born This Way type of thing. I love it myself and can see it being her biggest hit on Hot 100 but not as huge in the long run as its start indicates.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 25, 2015 14:45:19 GMT -5
If her "star power" has subsided since '21' I agree. However, no one predicted 24 weeks at #1 for the album and 3 #1 singles.
The 'rulebook' on how things SHOULD go doesn't seem to apply to Adele
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 14:47:02 GMT -5
I don't know about the BTW comparison, mostly because Hello is an AC ballad and will undoubtedly have a very long life at AC radio - so ultimately much longer airplay than a dance pop song like BTW.
Speaking of airplay, I'm anxious to see if Hello charts this week from it. I'm sure there's a bunch of us who want it to bubble under so it can debut at #1 next week... but I'm here for an extra week if that's how it turns out!
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Oct 25, 2015 15:29:51 GMT -5
Knowing how things have gone for adele, I'll say hello debuts at 99 and jumps to 1 and takes that record. Then stays at 1 until the second single is released, about 8 weeks. The second single dominates while hello is at number 2. And 25 debuts on the B200 with 2.4 million copies sold. Quote me on this guys. I'm psychic
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 25, 2015 15:37:12 GMT -5
2.4 million in one week? Those are like N'Sync numbers from their prime!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 15:43:58 GMT -5
not only their prime, but album sales' prime in general.
if streaming didn't exist, i'd be on the 2m+ bandwagon, but... i'm going for a more reserved figure solely because or streaming. But by all means, I hope she defies my theory here with help from the older physical record buying public.
if taylor can do what she did with 1989... I definitely see Adele at least breaking the female record.
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Oct 25, 2015 16:10:43 GMT -5
I think Hello is a 9-10 weeker for sure, but beyond that it may be tough simply because it will exhaust so much of its interest in the first half of its reign on top. But I expect single two to be even bigger for some reason, and that one to have a UF type run. Who knows, maybe finally dethrone OSD. Especially now that digital sales are becoming much less important, and streaming much more so. This bodes well for her being able to have #1's even after the album has sold 5m+ copies.
Oh, and I'm sure Hello will not fade away nearly as fast as Born This Way, since I can't imagine why radio wouldn't be fully on board with Hello. Radio kinda dumped BTW after that initial month or so. The reception after the initial hype for Hello will be far stronger than it was for BTW.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 25, 2015 16:20:27 GMT -5
A #1 is a #1 is a #1 is a #1. There's nothing anymore "unnatural" about a one-week #1 than a six-week #1. This is ridiculous. I didn't say I agreed, I was just explaining what popbox meant and why that statement would've been made in the first place. Incorrectly, apparently, so I apologize. Anyway, top 10 prediction time! 01 - 01 - The Hills [6th week] [wins by less than 5%] 02 - 02 - Hotline Bling 03 - 03 - What Do You Mean 04 - 06 - Wildest Dreams 05 - 04 - 679 06 - 05 - Stitches 07 - 08 - Locked Away 08 - 07 - Can't Feel My Face 09 - 12 - Downtown 10 - 11 - Lean On 11 - 10 - Good for You 12 - 18 - Same Old Love 13 - 15 - Hit the Quan 14 - 09 - Watch Me 15 - 13 - Jumpman I'm surprised that The Hills can stand a chance this week.. Anyway, the corny Billboard.com is gonna grant Drake's wish like genie in the bottle, yeah yeah~ |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Oct 25, 2015 16:30:05 GMT -5
Fun game once the #s come out -- how high would Adele be on the album chart if you converted digital sales and streaming for Hello into album equivalent units?
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 25, 2015 16:39:20 GMT -5
Flo Rida's record is in jeopardy
Adele's 'Hello' Aiming for Record U.S. Digital Sales Week
Adele’s new single “Hello” is off to a blazing start, and could post the largest ever U.S. digital sales week for a song, according to industry sources.
The track, released through XL Recordings/Columbia Records on Oct. 23, could challenge the current one-week sales record holder: Flo Rida’s “Right Round.” It sold 636,000 downloads in is debut frame (week ending Feb. 15, 2009), according to Nielsen Music. (Adele’s largest sales week for a song was earned by “Rolling in the Deep,” which shifted 353,000 in the frame ending May 15, 2011.)
Sources suggest that “Hello” already sold roughly 450,000 in its first two days on sale. The debut week sales of "Hello" (ending Oct. 29) is scheduled to be announced on Monday, Nov. 2.
Radio on Adele's 'Hello': 'She Can Make You Feel What She Feels'
Such robust sales for “Hello” would make the song a serious contender for No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 to be revealed that same day. Adele has previously led the list three times, with “Rolling In the Deep,” “Someone Like You” and “Set Fire to the Rain.”
“Hello” is the lead single from Adele’s third studio album, 25, due out on Nov. 20
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 16:44:12 GMT -5
Seems like such a long time to wait for results, especially considering we know they'll know on Friday. UGH! haha.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Oct 25, 2015 16:53:20 GMT -5
Clear disparity between the Hits and Billboard numbers. We know from Kworb/DSD that Hello didn't slow by 88% in day two (plus, if it was indeed slowing by that much, then Hello would have no chance of breaking the weekly sales record), which means one of the numbers is wrong.
My hunch is that Hits forgot to deduct the pre-orders from the opening day sales total, but Hits *has* generally been outscooping Billboard in recent weeks.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Oct 25, 2015 17:44:28 GMT -5
Billboard almost always underestimates when there are these event songs/albums, and with good reason. It allows the final numbers to seem even more impressive when they can say it exceeded early estimates.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Oct 25, 2015 17:48:55 GMT -5
Billboard almost always underestimates when there are these event songs/albums, and with good reason. It allows the final numbers to seem even more impressive when they can say it exceeded early estimates. I considered that, but what threw me is that they said "roughly" rather than the "upwards of" wording that they so often use. If you combine Hits' data with the data from the pop bars/tracking sites, its total should have been in the neighborhood of 550-650K after two days. There's no universe in which that's "roughly" 450K. Note that the 450K is also an actual number they're reporting; it's not a "projection." While they understandably want to be conservative with their forecasts, saying it sold 450K when it actually sold 100-200K more than that would be flat-out lying. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 25, 2015 18:01:35 GMT -5
We will all find out in a week who is actually lying I suppose, perhaps earlier. I bet we will get updates throughout the week, especially if it is confirmed that the song has passed one milestone or anther
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 18:06:08 GMT -5
yeah, i bet HDD gives us an estimate on Friday... possibly forcing Billboard's hand, or just making us wait a few days... which will cause us to go with HDD numbers for the meantime and then it'll be totally wrong according to Billboard. haha! Awesome!
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Oct 25, 2015 18:28:02 GMT -5
saying it sold 450K when it actually sold 100-200K more than that would be flat-out lying. Or it wouldn't. It did sell 450K. It just sold more than that but in order to sell 500k, 600k, 1 million, it has to reach 450k first. So they aren't lying. |
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Ravi
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Post by Ravi on Oct 25, 2015 22:13:52 GMT -5
I happen to agree with the 450k estimate. According to Kworb's site, Hello sold 7.5 times what HB sold on Friday, and 7 times on Saturday. Assuming HB is selling 30k every day on the weekends, Hello should have sold:
On Friday: 7.5x30 = 225
On Saturday: 7.0x30 = 210
Total: 435
On Sunday, it is looking to sell ~175k. So the 3-day sales has definitely crossed 600k, but it should be below 650k.
I can see it doing another 400k+ for Mon-Thurs, so that will mean 1.0M+ first week.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Oct 25, 2015 22:20:01 GMT -5
I happen to agree with the 450k estimate. According to Kworb's site, Hello sold 7.5 times what HB sold on Friday, and 7 times on Saturday. Assuming HB is selling 30k every day on the weekends, Hello should have sold: On Friday: 7.5x30 = 225 On Saturday: 7.0x30 = 210 Total: 435 On Sunday, it is looking to sell ~175k. So the 3-day sales has definitely crossed 600k, but it should be below 650k. I can see it doing another 400k+ for Mon-Thurs, so that will mean 1.0M+ first week. Fair enough; that all makes sense. But the issue I was raising earlier is that if you agree 450K is an accurate two-day total, you couldn't possibly accept 400K as an accurate one-day number. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 25, 2015 22:35:19 GMT -5
Not going to matter much how it gets there. This song will set a sales record
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 25, 2015 23:52:08 GMT -5
How many of the 1.0M is gonna be pre-order?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2015 23:54:37 GMT -5
I'm gonna predict this song is selling between 750,000 and 1 million its first week. I don't think 1M+ is possible...
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