Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Oct 26, 2015 17:00:47 GMT -5
Looking at the Hot 100 article, Hotline Bling lost like 26 percent of its streams BTW.
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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a good-looking gay man
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 26, 2015 17:06:56 GMT -5
Omg!! Adele is greening it up again on iTunes bars! Combined with pre-order I'd predict it to sell 1.1m-1.25m (and assume the pre-order accounts for 1/4 of everything then it will come down to 825k-938k!)
I don't think it's a question anymore that Flo Rida's tyranny is gonna be broken!
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 17:08:04 GMT -5
Looking at the Hot 100 article, Hotline Bling lost like 26 percent of its streams BTW. Maybe cuz streaming for the 2 remixes died down? Similar to what happened with the sales component. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 17:10:04 GMT -5
Yeah, we keep forgetting Drake isn't the only person with a video on Apple. The Hills is getting some streams over there too, probably not enough to outweigh whatever Drake pulled in but it still has to be taken into account. And then you have FB videos, Daily Motion, Tidal, maybe a couple of other well-known video streaming sites that Apple would have to look at and estimate each week. (Note that Vine clips would not count; they don't meet the minimum 30-second rule.) Now Apple and Tidal are different from those in that you can't see the number of views a vid has at all. You can see that on FB and DM. So for Apple and Tidal putting a number on any one video would be a complete shot in the dark; for FB and DM it's just the fact that someone at BB would have to track every video uploaded on to those sites and sort through the music vs. non-music videos themselves. Either way that's just too much work (and with so much guesswork, too large a margin of error) to make it worth the effort.
Without the video streaming sites themselves reporting numbers there's not much BB can do to help the accuracy, unfortunately. The only other solution is to go in the other direction and stop counting video streams completely, which I personally am all for, but I know some people would pitch a fit about the loss of Youtube/Vevo counts.
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Oct 26, 2015 17:15:45 GMT -5
Perfect was released as an instant grat from Made In The A.M. right? Because the Kworb's prediction and the Billboard's number of sales for this week are very close, so maybe the 1 million prediction for Hello is the real number excluding all the instant grant thing...
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 17:15:54 GMT -5
Looking at the Hot 100 article, Hotline Bling lost like 26 percent of its streams BTW. Maybe cuz the 2 remixes died out? Similar to what happened with the sales component. Also wouldn't be surprised if some or most of those lost streams were due to people watching the video instead of just listening to the song. |
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THINKIN BOUT YOU
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Posts: 1,364
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Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Oct 26, 2015 17:36:39 GMT -5
Shocked that "Watch Me" is still top10... It's the only song in top 10 that's not about love.. |
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Oct 26, 2015 17:39:29 GMT -5
Shocked that "Watch Me" is still top10... It's the only song in top 10 that's not about love.. Watch Me is the only song in top 10 that's not about anything. |
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felipe
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Post by felipe on Oct 26, 2015 18:01:21 GMT -5
In this age of digital pre-orders... the instant grat tracks/complete my album is a major way to boost album sales... at least for big names. Plus, pre-order figures give the label an idea of demand and how many physical CDs to manufacture. So putting a single out months before the album is smart, imo, especially if you're a pop star with a big fanbase. 12 weeks is less than half a hit single's chart life in many cases these days. And even if the first single peaks and goes away, or even flops, the extra time allows them to launch a 2nd single before an album's release. It's a win-win most of the time. But if the first single peaks and goes away and you launch a 2nd one you are spending even more money to promote an album that doesn't yet exist while it couldn't have already been selling while the first single was still hot. Take for example Demi's new album. She has a 2nd single already out and so far the album has sold 100k (first week plus pre-orders). Had it been released 2 months ago, when she performed at the VMAs and the song peaked, I'm quite sure it'd have sold more than 100k by now. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 18:06:45 GMT -5
^ I get what you're saying... but imo, it's about maximizing those first week sales... reaching the largest potential sales/audience. if the first single flops, the album isn't going to sell itself outside of die hard fans. A 2nd single and/or a string of instant grat tracks give more people more reasons/incentive to buy an album the day/week of its released.
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Oct 26, 2015 19:09:15 GMT -5
what I don't get is that I watched the video on a website with the embedded widget for apple music. i guess i figured that since it's a subscription service, you'd have to subscribe to view/listen to their content. but that's clearly not the case... so i really don't get how it's structured and/or why. it seems like Apple doesn't release these figures because they don't want to appear super small compared to the big guys. That's exactly correct. |
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Post by squirrelgate on Oct 26, 2015 19:11:22 GMT -5
I am a little bit concerned about Apple refusing to report the streams. Let's face it, it's only a matter of time until Apple Music overtakes Spotify just on the basis of convenience for the millions of people on iOS devices. Considering it's also inevitable that streaming in general will only get bigger and bigger, if Apple doesn't provide their data to Billboard, we could be looking at the beginning of another era where Billboard's charts are largely irrelevant.
I can see it now: one year from now, Apple introduces the 2.0 update for Apple Music: "Now, you can browse what's popular more easily than ever before...just navigate to the "Charts" tab to see what's blowing up on Apple Music, on a daily, weekly, or yearly basis."
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Oct 26, 2015 19:14:06 GMT -5
^ I don't see that. Spotify works just as easy on iOS as Apple music.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 26, 2015 19:27:44 GMT -5
The female in question is of course Taylor Swift
Welcome Back fridayteenage ;)
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forg
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Post by forg on Oct 26, 2015 19:33:19 GMT -5
Too bad for Drake
New peaks for Stitches and Wildest Dreams!
And another top 20 hit for Meghan Trainor, she also barely missed another one with Charlie Puth's Marvin Gaye which peaked at 21 but still who would have thought after All About That Bass, she'll get a string of top 20 hits
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Oct 26, 2015 19:34:08 GMT -5
Omg, flashbacks to Black Eyed Peas preventing Drake's "Best I Ever Had" from being a 7 week #1 ...
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forg
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Post by forg on Oct 26, 2015 19:45:20 GMT -5
10/26/15 - Billboard subjectively decides that estimated Apple Music video streams will count for "Hotline Bling" despite them not being reported. "Hotline Bling" takes the #1 spot. 11/2/15 - Billboard subjectively decides that estimated Vine video streams will count for "Hit The Quan" despite them not being reported. "Hit The Quan" blocks "Hello" from #1 as a result. Bias is real right now. And I'm #TeamTurnover so I wanted HB at #1, but Billboard essentially making up Apple Music numbers (if we don't know estimates, there's no reason that Billboard would know) for it to count sets way too dangerous of a precedent. Plus we're all ignoring the fact that Billboard would also have to make estimates for the streams of every single video on Apple Music, which is clearly logistically impossible. i hear ya. it's all true. it's just one of those things. Agree with this and I also wanted a new #1 And I think the Apple Music streams weren't that huge to begin with because if it was strong enough to ge Hotline Bling at #1 then why would they keep that? That would be good publicity for their services since they can command strong figures after all. Keeping the numbers creates the impression that they want to hide from the press and public because they know they will be subject to scrutiny. Netflix also keeps their viewer figures for their original content since it's likely smaller than the hype the shows get but that strategy kinda worked for them, I don't know with Apple Music |
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Post by squirrelgate on Oct 26, 2015 19:48:14 GMT -5
^ I don't see that. Spotify works just as easy on iOS as Apple music. Spotify's not pre-installed, though. The 10 year old girl who gets her 1st iPhone for Christmas isn't going to go out and download Spotify and use that, she's going to get the service that she can pay for using the iTunes gift cards she got for Christmas. Plus there's the whole deal with exclusivity, with which Apple will crush Spotify. Apple has the determination and ability to take back the music industry, so it's going to happen. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 26, 2015 20:34:11 GMT -5
Drake obviously knew he wasn't going #1 this week if the video was an Apple exclusive, so he chose the payout from them rather than a surefire #1, and probably hoped he still might still have a chance in the following weeks once released on Vevo. Obviously a huge risk, because Adele happened. The only way he still might have a chance is if Adele surprisingly declines very rapidly or if Ariana doesn't do that well.
But here's the thing...Even though an "official" list doesn't place him at #1, the song is still as big of a hit as if it did. Don't get me wrong, I'm obsessed with the charts just as much as everyone here, and it gives a special zing when songs rank higher, but why do we feel such a need for a list to determine and validate reality, when in fact the list doesn't change reality. It's not like the song is banished from existence and will be erased from history.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 26, 2015 21:02:11 GMT -5
The whole "erased from history" thing has actually happened before. To see the actual biggest songs of the 90s, you need the airplay charts, not the Hot 100.
Now this (assuming it was a lock for #1 like most here thinks) still peaks at #2 and would have AT BEST only spent 1 week at #1, not a big deal.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 21:03:09 GMT -5
Ironically enough, Drake now just released his music video to YouTube on his Vevo page shortly after the article came out.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Oct 26, 2015 21:30:49 GMT -5
^ I don't see that. Spotify works just as easy on iOS as Apple music. Spotify's not pre-installed, though. The 10 year old girl who gets her 1st iPhone for Christmas isn't going to go out and download Spotify and use that, she's going to get the service that she can pay for using the iTunes gift cards she got for Christmas. Plus there's the whole deal with exclusivity, with which Apple will crush Spotify. Apple has the determination and ability to take back the music industry, so it's going to happen. Apple Music subscriptions nose dived after the trial period ended. There no incentive to switch if you've been using Spotify or google play or rdio. |
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forg
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Post by forg on Oct 26, 2015 21:35:10 GMT -5
Spotify is just more user friendly than Apple Music and we can't tell for sure if iPhones will still be as dominant in the future
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Oct 26, 2015 21:55:45 GMT -5
The whole "erased from history" thing has actually happened before. To see the actual biggest songs of the 90s, you need the airplay charts, not the Hot 100. The songs that couldn't chart on the Hot 100 in the 90's haven't been "erased from history" though. Some of those songs are classics now and still remembered by millions of people today. I'm sure I've seen a list of some of them before and I knew some of the songs, so it doesn't change how popular they were and how remembered they are today. Hotline Bling not being #1 doesn't change it's popularity in real life. It's as popular as it is. For example, Gangnam Style not making #1 hasn't "erased it from history", Gangnam Style will be remembered by many people for a long time. Hotline Bling will be too (on a lesser scale). Also, the Hot 100 is an estimate of popularity. I think it's fairly accurate personally. There are occasionally songs that I never hear anywhere that get high up the charts, but I assume they're more popular with a different part of society (for example different age group or different area or different gender (e.g. One Direction lol, I have never heard some of their hits)). But my point is there have probably been many other weeks in recent years where the #1 on the Hot 100 wasn't really the most popular song in the country. So although I feel like Hotline Bling should be #1 since I have heard it, or about it a LOT the past couple of months, there could be many, many other people who are hearing The Hills everywhere, it could be just where I live, or the types of people I have on social networking sites. There is probably someone out there who hears El Perdon everywhere and would expect it to be #1 right now. |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Oct 26, 2015 23:25:16 GMT -5
10/26/15 - Billboard subjectively decides that estimated Apple Music video streams will count for "Hotline Bling" despite them not being reported. "Hotline Bling" takes the #1 spot. 11/2/15 - Billboard subjectively decides that estimated Vine video streams will count for "Hit The Quan" despite them not being reported. "Hit The Quan" blocks "Hello" from #1 as a result. Bias is real right now. And I'm #TeamTurnover so I wanted HB at #1, but Billboard essentially making up Apple Music numbers (if we don't know estimates, there's no reason that Billboard would know) for it to count sets way too dangerous of a precedent. Plus we're all ignoring the fact that Billboard would also have to make estimates for the streams of every single video on Apple Music, which is clearly logistically impossible. I get the point, but with all the websites and sales and radio gains, and obviously the views on the Apple Music video, Hotline Bling was more popular than The Hills this week. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2015 0:50:42 GMT -5
Omfg really? I constantly saw Hotline Bling video memes - not a single one of Harlem Shake. Smfh that's just unf**kingbelievable. By the same logic that Harlem Shake was #1, shouldn't Hotline Bling should be #1 too? Makes less than zero sense.
somehow I had a bad feeling this would happen...
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Post by Rocky on Oct 27, 2015 4:54:51 GMT -5
I am a little bit concerned about Apple refusing to report the streams. Let's face it, it's only a matter of time until Apple Music overtakes Spotify just on the basis of convenience for the millions of people on iOS devices. What are you talking about? Spotify trumps Apple Music on iOS as much as it does on Android and other devices. It couldn't be any more convenient than Spotify. |
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lyhom
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Post by lyhom on Oct 27, 2015 6:09:37 GMT -5
Omfg really? I constantly saw Hotline Bling video memes - not a single one of Harlem Shake. Smfh that's just unf**kingbelievable. By the same logic that Harlem Shake was #1, shouldn't Hotline Bling should be #1 too? Makes less than zero sense. somehow I had a bad feeling this would happen... there's not much they can do about it if they don't report the streams, though |
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Oct 27, 2015 7:18:50 GMT -5
Omfg really? I constantly saw Hotline Bling video memes - not a single one of Harlem Shake. Smfh that's just unf**kingbelievable. By the same logic that Harlem Shake was #1, shouldn't Hotline Bling should be #1 too? Makes less than zero sense. somehow I had a bad feeling this would happen... How many of those Hotline Bling videos even had the song in it? I saw dozens of edits that used the video and subbed in other audio. Why should a vine with Drake throwing pokeballs with Gotta Catch 'em All playing count towards the song's chart position? Apple chooses to keep their video streaming numbers proprietary for whatever reason. Nothing you can do about it. It's no less fair than any other video being streamed on Apple music not getting a point boost. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Oct 27, 2015 7:44:09 GMT -5
Omfg really? I constantly saw Hotline Bling video memes - not a single one of Harlem Shake. Smfh that's just unf**kingbelievable. By the same logic that Harlem Shake was #1, shouldn't Hotline Bling should be #1 too? Makes less than zero sense. somehow I had a bad feeling this would happen... Why does a meme mean a song should be #1? |
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