Billboard Hot 100: 11/14/15 (Hello Adele!)

[Ravi]

At the rate Hello is holding up, it may sell over 1M in its 2nd week as well!!

And Hello should be entering Year-end Top-50 just from the 3-week run. Crazy!!

BTW this week's predictions:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Hello - 1200 - 65 - 30.0 = 140,000
2 - Sorry - 265 - 30 - 18.0 =  45,000
3 - Hotline Bling - 165 - 130 - 15.0 = 43,500
4 - The Hills - 85 - 145 - 18.0 = 41,500
5 - What Do You Mean - 80 - 125 - 14.0 = 34,700
6 - Stitches - 75 - 115 - 11.0 = 30,000
7 - Wildest Dreams - 75 - 150 - 5.0 = 26,800

#2-4 are pretty close together and Hotline Bling may have a shot at #2, if the streaming gap with Sorry is smaller. It may also end up at #4 if the streaming gap with The Hills is larger.

What Do you mean should comfortably get #5 position.

[born]

Oct 29, 2015 3:01:54 GMT -5 Ravi said:

At the rate Hello is holding up, it may sell over 1M in its 2nd week as well!!

And Hello should be entering Year-end Top-50 just from the 3-week run. Crazy!!

BTW this week's predictions:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Hello - 1200 - 65 - 30.0 = 140,000
2 - Sorry - 265 - 30 - 18.0 =  45,000
3 - Hotline Bling - 165 - 130 - 15.0 = 43,500
4 - The Hills - 85 - 145 - 18.0 = 41,500
5 - What Do You Mean - 80 - 125 - 14.0 = 34,700
6 - Stitches - 75 - 115 - 11.0 = 30,000
7 - Wildest Dreams - 75 - 150 - 5.0 = 26,800

#2-4 are pretty close together and Hotline Bling may have a shot at #2, if the streaming gap with Sorry is smaller. It may also end up at #4 if the streaming gap with The Hills is larger.

What Do you mean should comfortably get #5 position.

Wildest Dreams' streaming is embarrassing ????

[Future Captain]

Oct 29, 2015 7:22:54 GMT -5 born said:

Oct 29, 2015 3:01:54 GMT -5 Ravi said:

At the rate Hello is holding up, it may sell over 1M in its 2nd week as well!!

And Hello should be entering Year-end Top-50 just from the 3-week run. Crazy!!

BTW this week's predictions:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Hello - 1200 - 65 - 30.0 = 140,000
2 - Sorry - 265 - 30 - 18.0 =  45,000
3 - Hotline Bling - 165 - 130 - 15.0 = 43,500
4 - The Hills - 85 - 145 - 18.0 = 41,500
5 - What Do You Mean - 80 - 125 - 14.0 = 34,700
6 - Stitches - 75 - 115 - 11.0 = 30,000
7 - Wildest Dreams - 75 - 150 - 5.0 = 26,800

#2-4 are pretty close together and Hotline Bling may have a shot at #2, if the streaming gap with Sorry is smaller. It may also end up at #4 if the streaming gap with The Hills is larger.

What Do you mean should comfortably get #5 position.

Wildest Dreams' streaming is embarrassing ????

You know, not being on Spotify and all.

[born]

Oct 29, 2015 7:51:37 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Oct 29, 2015 7:22:54 GMT -5 born said:

Wildest Dreams' streaming is embarrassing

You know, not being on Spotify and all.

Ik, I'm just surprised. Plus it's not like a catchy upbeat pop song like Blank Space or Shake It Off and the video isn't powerful like Bad Blood, so..

[ListenToItTwice]

Oct 28, 2015 22:47:59 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 28, 2015 16:20:41 GMT -5 alfonzo said:

So if it weren't for the 2 debuts, there would only be ONE song selling over 100K this week? That's insane

Insane? Uh, not so much. That's a bit of a stretch, to say basically if the two most popular songs didn't exist, which will both have very large numbers....not even close to "almost didn't happen"

Alfonso's post was pretty reasonable in my opinion.. Maybe you'd prefer it worded this way: "Only one of the songs that were out a week ago sold more than 100k this week? That's insane"

[velaxti]

Haven't we already recently had a week (maybe more than one) with just one song over 100,000 though?

There was even a week on Hot Digital Songs where the #1 was under 100,000, but that was because of Complete My Album I think.

[85la]

Oct 29, 2015 9:04:58 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

Oct 28, 2015 22:47:59 GMT -5 85la said:

Insane? Uh, not so much. That's a bit of a stretch, to say basically if the two most popular songs didn't exist, which will both have very large numbers....not even close to "almost didn't happen"

Alfonso's post was pretty reasonable in my opinion.. Maybe you'd prefer it worded this way: "Only one of the songs that were out a week ago sold more than 100k this week? That's insane"

I guess with so few of the top ten songs pulling over 100K per week nowadays, it's just not that surprising to me.

[Kris]

Mediabase 10/29/15

TOP 10

1. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 177.806 (- 0.444)
2. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 176.335 (- 1.412)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 153.344 (- 0.841)
4. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 147.993 (+ 1.589)
5. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 133.699 (+ 2.550)
6. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 118.017 (- 2.868)
7. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 109.305 (- 0.693)
8. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 105.265 (+ 1.671)
9. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 97.072 (- 1.883)
10. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 86.203 (+ 1.238) ▲
11. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 85.338 (- 1.043) ▼
12. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 80.478 (- 2.494)
13. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 78.822 (- 0.401)
14. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 77.028 (+ 1.755)
15. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 74.181 (- 0.641)
16. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 73.272 (+ 1.651)
17. ADELE - Hello: 72.736 (+ 12.506) ▲
18. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 64.881 (+ 1.058)
19. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 64.475 (+ 0.427) ▼
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 63.061 (+ 0.145) ▲

CURIOSIDADES

COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 62.327 (+ 1.046)
OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 62.019 (+ 0.648)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 58.491 (+ 0.391)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 54.712 (+ 0.170)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 50.445 (+ 0.458)
SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 47.329 (+ 1.978)
JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 34.305 (+ 5.464)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 32.136 (+ 0.845)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 31.556 (+ 0.286)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 26.321 (+ 0.566)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 16.157 (- 0.108)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 13.584 (+ 0.599)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 10.138 (+ 0.291)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 5.233 (+ 0.383)
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 4.945 (+ 0.230)
TOVE LO - Moments: 3.025 (+ 0.125)

[forg]

Like I'm Gonna Lose You is doing so well in airplay and itunes! Is top 10 in play?

[Dylan :)]

Oct 29, 2015 10:54:21 GMT -5 forg said:

Like I'm Gonna Lose You is doing so well in airplay and itunes! Is top 10 in play?

#5 on iTunes, top 15 on radio tomorrow, #26 on Spotify, I'd hope so!

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Oct 29, 2015 11:36:01 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Oct 29, 2015 10:54:21 GMT -5 forg said:

Like I'm Gonna Lose You is doing so well in airplay and itunes! Is top 10 in play?

#5 on iTunes, top 15 on radio tomorrow, #26 on Spotify, I'd hope so!

It'll still be #16 on airplay tomorrow..

[yuh yuh]

Oct 29, 2015 13:07:17 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

Oct 29, 2015 11:36:01 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

#5 on iTunes, top 15 on radio tomorrow, #26 on Spotify, I'd hope so!

It'll still be #16 on airplay tomorrow..

I think #15, cause "Hello" will pass it, but LIGLY will pass Shut Up + Dance.

[Dylan :)]

Oct 29, 2015 13:07:17 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

Oct 29, 2015 11:36:01 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

#5 on iTunes, top 15 on radio tomorrow, #26 on Spotify, I'd hope so!

It'll still be #16 on airplay tomorrow..

Oh true, forgot about Adele behind them lol. They should hopefully pass Lean On by Sunday

[kanimal]

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6745954/adele-headed-no-1-hot-100-debut-sales-record?utm_source=twitter

Adele's 'Hello' looks likely to launch at the summit, while Bieber's 'Sorry' should bow in the top 10.

Adele appears set to debut at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with her new single, "Hello," which also should smash the record for the most downloads ever sold in a week.

Meanwhile, Justin Bieber should score a top 10 Hot 100 launch with his latest single, "Sorry."

Highlights of the next Hot 100, dated Nov. 14, will be revealed on Billboard.com on Monday, Nov. 2, with the entire chart posting the following day. (See the current, Nov. 7-dated Hot 100, in full, here.)

Industry forecasters suggest that "Hello," released Friday, Oct. 23, could sell 900,000 downloads in the week ending Oct. 29. Such a sum would shatter the mark for most downloads sold in a week: Flo Rida's "Right Round" moved 636,000 (Feb. 28, 2009, according to Nielsen Music).

On the Hot 100, the pending record-breaking sales start for "Hello" will combine with expected lofty streaming and airplay data (its video also premiered Oct. 23, and the song went to radio the same day). The stark piano ballad is the lead single from Adele's Nov. 20 album 25, her first LP since 2011's 21, which has sold 11.2 million copies in the United States. 21 yielded Adele's first three Hot 100 No. 1s: "Rolling in the Deep" (the year-end No. 1 of 2011), "Someone Like You" and "Set Fire to the Rain."

Meanwhile, Bieber will add more momentum leading up to his Nov. 13 album Purpose, as second single "Sorry" should arrive with around 350,000 downloads sold, according to industry forecasts. Its final sales figure will combine with airplay and streaming totals (the song currently sports an official "dance video") for its likely top 10 debut on the Nov. 14 Hot 100.

Lead Purpose single "What Do You Mean?" flew onto the Sept. 19 Hot 100, becoming his first No. 1, fueled by 337,000 first-week downloads sold. (It's ranked in the top three for its first eight weeks.)

To find out if Adele officially rules the Hot 100 upon its debut -- and if Bieber adds another top 10 -- check Billboard.com Monday (Nov. 2).

These forecasts are just a mess.

Kworb has 1.2M for Hello and 266K for Sorry. The notoriously conservative Billboard says 900K for Hello but somehow 350K for Sorry.

Even if we assume the 1.2M forecast has not been adjusted for instant gratification downloads, why is Billboard's Sorry # so much higher? Surely Sorry has 50-100K instant gratification downloads of its own...

[Gary]

900K looks like a confirmed sales record.



At the end of the day if Billboard comes up with one number and Kworb comes up with another and HITS comes up with a third, which one is the "official" one?

Either way, all three will say that Adele is setting a record and debuting at #1.

[popstop]

I mentioned this a couple weeks ago, and pretty sure no one cares, but when Adele hits #1 with this chart, that will be 17 weeks in a row where no American has been #1:

OMI - Cheerleader (6 weeks)
The Weeknd - Can't Feel My Face (3 weeks)
Justin Bieber - What Do You Mean (1 week)
The Weeknd - The Hills (6 weeks)
Adele - Hello (1 week)

That would tie the record for the longest such streak (Carly Rae and Gotye combined for 17 weeks in 2012), and considering Adele's slayage, that streak will probably extend well past 17 weeks. 

This coming week could also be an unusual one in which none of the acts in the top 5 are American. Looks like Adele and Justin will crash the top five, where the current top four are all Canadian. I didn't check every chart, but I believe it would be the first time since 1985 that such a feat has happened (Actually, the 6/1/85 chart featured a chart in which the top EIGHT songs were by non-Americans.) I know the Beatles also monopolized a top five all to themselves in 1964.     

The chart came kind of close last summer when the same top 5 songs were around from 7/5/14 through to 8/16/14 - All top five songs had a non-American (Magic, Iggy Azalea, Sam Smith, NIco & Vinz), but Ariana led Problem to keep Americans in the game. 

Nearly all of the charts since 8/22/15 have had four non-American acts in the top 5, and the outlier in nearly all of those weeks was Silento. Fetty Wap's 679 was the outlier for 10/31/15, and Taylor is this week's outlier. So the top five will come down to whether Taylor gets bumped down to #6 or not. 

I am such a nerd. 

[kanimal]

Oct 29, 2015 14:04:56 GMT -5 Gary said:

900K looks like a confirmed sales record.



At the end of the day if Billboard comes up with one number and Kworb comes up with another and HITS comes up with a third, which one is the "official" one?

Either way, all three will say that Adele is setting a record and debuting at #1.

Well, the Billboard/Nielsen number is the official one.  Hits also reports Nielsen single sales data, so there shouldn't be any disparity in the final number.  It's the forecasts that are all over the place.

[Deleted]

Oct 29, 2015 14:38:22 GMT -5 popstop said:

I am such a nerd. 

Yes. Yes you are.

[alfonzo]

Oct 29, 2015 9:58:37 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Haven't we already recently had a week (maybe more than one) with just one song over 100,000 though?

There was even a week on Hot Digital Songs where the #1 was under 100,000, but that was because of Complete My Album I think.

Oh I didn't know that. I haven't been keeping up with sales numbers too much this year. But there was like a 5-year period when the top song always sold over 200K and there were at least 10 songs a week that sold over 100K.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

See.. Likely I'll be right huh? Thanks to pre-order 1 million is blue sky now.

[Carriefan1190]

Oct 29, 2015 10:40:44 GMT -5 Kris said:

Mediabase 10/29/15

TOP 10

1. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 177.806 (- 0.444)
2. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 176.335 (- 1.412)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 153.344 (- 0.841)
4. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 147.993 (+ 1.589)
5. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 133.699 (+ 2.550)
6. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 118.017 (- 2.868)
7. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 109.305 (- 0.693)
8. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 105.265 (+ 1.671)
9. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 97.072 (- 1.883)
10. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 86.203 (+ 1.238) ▲
11. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 85.338 (- 1.043) ▼
12. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 80.478 (- 2.494)
13. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 78.822 (- 0.401)
14. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 77.028 (+ 1.755)
15. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 74.181 (- 0.641)
16. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 73.272 (+ 1.651)
17. ADELE - Hello: 72.736 (+ 12.506) ▲
18. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 64.881 (+ 1.058)
19. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 64.475 (+ 0.427) ▼
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 63.061 (+ 0.145) ▲

CURIOSIDADES

COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 62.327 (+ 1.046)
OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 62.019 (+ 0.648)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 58.491 (+ 0.391)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 54.712 (+ 0.170)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 50.445 (+ 0.458)
SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 47.329 (+ 1.978)
JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 34.305 (+ 5.464)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 32.136 (+ 0.845)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 31.556 (+ 0.286)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 26.321 (+ 0.566)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 16.157 (- 0.108)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 13.584 (+ 0.599)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 10.138 (+ 0.291)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 5.233 (+ 0.383)
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 4.945 (+ 0.230)
TOVE LO - Moments: 3.025 (+ 0.125)

Top 20 after one week?! I'm dead. This woman is a legend!

[imbondz]

So the first time I heard Hello I said I give it a solid 7/10. After a few more listens it's an easy 10/10. It made me teary listening to it earlier. Holy crap her voice is ridiculous.

[Kworb]

Sales estimates

1. Hello 1,228,000*
2. Sorry 277,000
3. Hotline Bling 164,000
4. The Hills 88,000
5. What Do You Mean? 81,000
6. Stitches 80,000
7. Ex's & Oh's 78,000
8. Wildest Dreams 76,000
9. Downtown 71,000
10. Like I'm Gonna Lose You 70,000
11. Die A Happy Man 68,000
12. Perfect 60,000
13. Same Old Love 58,000
14. Home 58,000
15. On My Mind 55,000
16. 679 54,000
17. Used To Love You Sober 49,000
18. Here 47,000
19. Locked Away 42,000
20. Confident 40,000

kworb.net/cc

*The HDS figure will likely be lower due to people first buying the single (which counts towards the iTunes song chart) and afterwards pre-ordering the album (converting it into an instant grat, which doesn't count). People who immediately pre-ordered the album and received the song are not included in the estimate.

The only evidence for this that I've seen is the release of One Direction's "Infinity" which happened the same week their album was put up for pre-order. The HDS figure was quite a bit lower than the estimate, and this is the only reasonable way to explain it.

[Au$tin]

Oct 29, 2015 13:09:42 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

Oct 29, 2015 13:07:17 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

It'll still be #16 on airplay tomorrow..

I think #15, cause "Hello" will pass it, but LIGLY will pass Shut Up + Dance.

That would still put it at #16.

[mamooshka]

Oct 29, 2015 14:38:22 GMT -5 popstop said:

This coming week could also be an unusual one in which none of the acts in the top 5 are American. Looks like Adele and Justin will crash the top five, where the current top four are all Canadian.

Is the current chart a record for number of Canadians in the Top 5 and Top 10?

Attachment Deleted

[felipe]

Oct 29, 2015 2:07:58 GMT -5 brucelover said:

I cannot at her breaking digital, spotify, and VEVO records.

I did not expect this, this is some MJ/Beatles level slayage.

I hope this era is not her Born this way. It started really strong for Gaga, breaking all sorts of records- thanks to a highly successful previous era and huge expectations- but by the next singles exciment had already died down and she started underperforming.

[Kris]

Mediabase 10/30/15

TOP 10

1. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 177.776 (- 0.030)
2. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 175.251 (- 1.084)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 152.864 (- 0.480)
4. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 149.022 (+ 1.029)
5. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 135.547 (+ 1.848)
6. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 115.013 (- 3.004)
7. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 108.593 (- 0.712)
8. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 107.070 (+ 1.805)
9. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 95.008 (- 2.064)
10. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 86.320 (+ 0.117)
11. ADELE - Hello: 86.176 (+ 13.440) ▲
12. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 84.303 (- 1.035) ▼
13. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 79.166 (- 1.312) ▼
14. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 79.073 (+ 2.045)
15. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 78.175 (- 0.647) ▼
16. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 74.998 (+ 1.726)
17. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 73.067 (- 1.114) ▼
18. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 66.105 (+ 1.224)
19. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 64.455 (- 0.020)
20. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 63.405 (+ 0.344)

CURIOSIDADES

COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 62.843 (+ 0.516)
OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 62.829 (+ 0.810)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 58.542 (+ 0.051)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 54.888 (+ 0.176)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 51.020 (+ 0.575)
SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 48.554 (+ 1.225)
JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 33.387 (- 0.918)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 32.923 (+ 0.787)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 32.245 (+ 0.689)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 27.372 (+ 1.051)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 16.191 (+ 0.034)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 14.101 (+ 0.517)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 10.706 (+ 0.568)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 5.529 (+ 0.296)
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 5.275 (+ 0.330)
ARIANA GRANDE - Focus: 0.342

[divasummer]

Oct 30, 2015 6:14:23 GMT -5 felipe said:

Oct 29, 2015 2:07:58 GMT -5 brucelover said:

I cannot at her breaking digital, spotify, and VEVO records.

I did not expect this, this is some MJ/Beatles level slayage.

I hope this era is not her Born this way. It started really strong for Gaga, breaking all sorts of records- thanks to a highly successful previous era and huge expectations- but by the next singles exciment had already died down and she started underperforming.

I don't know if it will be as big as 21 but I doubt it will be her "Born This Way" era.
I feel like there was already Backlash going on with GaGa with people kinf of getting sick of her shtick.
Plus their was some backlash with the song sounding very similar to Madonna's "Express Yourself".
Plus Adele's fanbase spans more generations and she has the adults who will probably buy or want her cd for the Holidays.
I just can't see this being her "BTW" era.

[yuh yuh]

Oct 30, 2015 0:27:07 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Oct 29, 2015 13:09:42 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

I think #15, cause "Hello" will pass it, but LIGLY will pass Shut Up + Dance.

That would still put it at #16.

Oh yes, my bad Not very good at maths

[popstop]

Oct 30, 2015 7:33:47 GMT -5 divasummer said:

Oct 30, 2015 6:14:23 GMT -5 felipe said:

I hope this era is not her Born this way. It started really strong for Gaga, breaking all sorts of records- thanks to a highly successful previous era and huge expectations- but by the next singles exciment had already died down and she started underperforming.

I don't know if it will be as big as 21 but I doubt it will be her "Born This Way" era.
I feel like there was already Backlash going on with GaGa with people kind of getting sick of her shtick.
Plus their was some backlash with the song sounding very similar to Madonna's "Express Yourself".
Plus Adele's fanbase spans more generations and she has the adults who will probably buy or want her cd for the Holidays.
I just can't see this being her "BTW" era.

I think this is a big part of it. Gaga's Fame album exploded at the beginning of 2009, then she released another album at the end of 2009, and then BTW came out just over a year after that. She burned too bright, too fast unfortunately. I think if Adele had turned around with another album in say, 2013, that wouldn't have given people time to miss her and there would be less pent up demand.